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2004 Stock Market ARCHIVES

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12/31/04 Friday- New Year's Eve-

12/31/04 Friday 9:27a Eastern- Look for a neutral open. Could turn positive to mixed after the open.

12/31/04 Friday 10:53a Eastern- Stocks meander on New Year's eve in positive mode as investors close out the old to bring in the new-  trading should be slow today. The DJIA and S&P 500 are slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ is up by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

12/31/04 Friday 4:55p Eastern- Stocks end New Year's eve on a slightly negative note but up for the year. Indices hung around unchanged for most of the day until last few hours when adjustment trades took the averages up and ultimately lower to end 2004. The DJIA ended lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended slightly lower by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast going into the new year is caution with a neutral bias.  

 

12/30/04 Thursday-

12/30/04 Thursday 9:26a Eastern- Look for a neutral possibly mixed open.

12/30/04 Thursday 12:04p Eastern- Mixed economical data [Chicago PMI, jobless claims] and light volume keeps the major indexes close to unchanged all morning with the indices [DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ] reporting slightly positive by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

12/30/04 Thursday 4:55p Eastern- Market moves sideways Thursday on the next to last day of 2004 trade, as lackluster economical data [jobless initial claims, Chicago PMI] and more focus on New Years and bonuses than trading, causes the major indexes to end nearly unchanged. The DJIA moves lower at the end of trade to settle at a 0.3 percent loss, the NASDAQ was slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 ends flat.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

12/29/04 Wednesday-

12/29/04 Wednesday 4:55p Eastern- Stock market starts out lower but recovers most of the days loss to end near unchanged;  oil surges-  on weekly inventory/supply report and a Saudi bomb blast;  Boeing puts pressure on the Dow-  S&P and NASDAQ recover losses;  markets ends nearly flat. The DJIA ends slightly lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ end near unchanged.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias- bias was change Monday evening.

12/29/04 Wednesday 11:17a Eastern- Major stock indexes move sideways in morning trading as investors mull the latest Government oil report and economical data-  oil lower at 41.65 bbl, -0.12. Investors may be content to move sideways for the remainder of 2004, as very little in data to digest until first week of the new year. The Dow Jones 30 is off by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ is higher by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 is flat.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias.

12/29/04 Wednesday 9:26a Eastern- Look for a neutral-to-negative open-  could turn mixed after the open.  

 

12/28/04 Tuesday-

12/28/04 Tuesday 9:25a Eastern- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

12/28/04 Tuesday 10:43a Eastern- Stocks rebound from yesterdays losses and capture the highs of the day amid a surging consumer confidence reading and continuing holiday retail sales data- oil also rebounds [$41.85 bbl, +0.53]. The DJIA and NASDAQ posts 0.7 percent gains, the S&P 500 also higher by 0.6 percent. The forecast, changed last evening, indicates caution with a neutral bias-  forecasters noted that the downgrade of the bias could be temporary.

12/28/04 Tuesday 4:55p Eastern- Consumer confidence data and Amazon upgrade cause buyers to run the stock market major indexes back up to the high of the day- holiday retail sales data helps. The DJIA and S&P 500 end Tuesday with a 0.7 percent gain, the NASDAQ outperformed with a 1.1 percent gain. The forecast bias was changed yesterday to neutral on indication from the forecast models that the market could get weaker. It was also stated that this downgrade could be temporary, as light volume can amplify market signals. The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change- no change is expected this evening.  

 

12/27/04 Monday-

12/27/04 Monday 9:24a Eastern- Look for a neutral-to-positive open start.

12/27/04 Monday 11:23a Eastern- Stock market starts the last week of 2004 in positive territory with oil continuing lower [ $42.13 bbl, -2.05] and hopes that retail sales pick-up in after Christmas sales. At 11:23a, the indices moved lower to the unchanged line as oil continues its decline. The DJIA was flat, the S&P 500 was off by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ was lower by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12/27/04 Monday 4:55p Eastern- Stocks get pulled lower Monday on mostly negative news [Earthquake- tsunami in South Asia and mixed holiday retail sales] and a new Bin Laden tape;  oil continues its move lower. News dominates investors with little in way of corporate news and no economical data to mull. The DJIA ended lower by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 was off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ ended down by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicate caution with a positive bias;  bias is subject to change this evening after mid-evening model run.

12/27/04 Monday 10:15p Eastern- The forecast bias is changing to NEUTRAL from positive. Models indicate weakness in the major indexes that could move the market lower over the next couple of sessions. More information to follow.

12/27/04 Monday 11:27p Eastern- The Barometer bias was changed tonight to neutral from positive. Models identified weakness in the market that could possibly get worse. Forecasters noted that since today's market action was light, this weakness could pass. See bias change log, forecasters notes, and forecast objective for more information.

 

12/24/04 Friday, Christmas holiday weekend-

12/24/04 Friday 10:40a Eastern- Markets closed for Christmas holiday.

12/26/04 Sunday 10:36a Eastern- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how forecasting the U.S. stock market can help you. Just mouse-over and click the area of interest below-  all charts have been updated for Monday's open.  >The Market Memo page contains a seven week forecast, advisory memo, forecasting objectives and explanations.  >Forecasting performance is very important-  how well we forecast-  we benchmark our forecast indications to the S&P 500 index.  >The Barometer channel chart is a pictorial of the metrics of the forecasting models- we use the metrics of the models to make forecast changes.  >The Barometer Leading Indicator is used to identify potential changes in market direction- normally, this indicator alerts to a major direction change days before it happens.  >The forecast is continuously displayed in the upper-right corner of all public pages. For more information and description of the forecast-bug visit the Market Memo page.  >New users can get more information about Market-Barometer™ on the Markets page, About us page, and the Contents page.

12/26/04 Sunday 12:17p Eastern- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  Barometer Chart   Forecast Objective  S&P 500 Forecast Performance Chart

 

12/23/04 Thursday-

12/23/04 Thursday 9:27a Eastern- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

12/23/04 Thursday 11:33a Eastern- Stock market continues the 'Santa' rally with the indices reporting better than 0.2 percent gains amid a slew of good-to-mixed economical data [durable goods, consumer spending, jobless claims, consumer sentiment- and others] with the DJIA and NASDAQ higher by 0.3 percent;  the S&P 500 was up by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias- no change to the forecast is expected before next week.

12/23/04 Thursday 4:44p Eastern- Stocks end in neutral with 1 percent, or greater, gain [the indices] on the week. Mixed economical data [durable goods, consumer spending, jobless claims, consumer sentiment- and others] keeps positive sentiment going into a long weekend-holiday [U.S. markets closed tomorrow];  the DJIA and S&P 500 closed Thursday with a 0.1 percent gain, the NASDAQ was higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. No forecast change is expected through the holiday period.  

 

12/22/04 Wednesday-

12/22/04 Wednesday 9:25a Eastern- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

12/22/04 Wednesday 10:23a Eastern- GDP is growing at an annual rate of 4 percent, according to the latest report from the Government...

12/22/04 Wednesday 11:38a Eastern- Stocks surge Wednesday morning on Government report that heating oil reserves increased [analysts had thought it would decrease], also helping the market was another Government report that shows GDP growing at 4 percent annually in the 3rd. quarter. Oil was trading at $44.00 -1.76. The DJIA was higher by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ was higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

12/22/04 Wednesday 4:55p Eastern- Major market indexes end Wednesday with gains on a Government report that saw oil supply [heating oil] increase and in another Government report showing annual GDP, in the third-quarter, rose to 4 percent. The price of oil lost more than 3 percent closing at $44.24 bbl. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed with gains of 0.3 percent, DJIA outperforms with a 1/2 percent gain.  |  The *forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and continues to be subject to change.  * Forecast of caution with a positive bias means the indices are nearly equally weighted with a propensity to advance.  

 

12/21/04 Tuesday-

12/21/04 Tuesday 9:25a Eastern- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

12/21/04 Tuesday 11:18a Eastern- Stocks advance Tuesday morning amid good quarterly earnings from investment centers [Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley] and an upgrade on Intel stock-  slightly holding things back were the attack in Mosul and Bayer AG hart risk warning news. The Dow Jones 30 index and NASDAQ were higher by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. The forecast continues to be subject to change.

12/21/04 Tuesday 4:55p Eastern- Investors stair-step the major indexes higher, nearly all day, amid better than expected earnings from investment banks [Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley], an upgrade to Intel Corp., as the price of oil moves slightly lower;  today's trading discounted the Mosul attack. The DJIA and S&P 500 moved higher by 0.9 percent, the NASDAQ was higher by 1.1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- forecast is subject to change.    

 

12/20/04 Monday-

12/20/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a positive open.

12/20/04 Monday 11:11 am ET- Stocks move higher Monday midmorning on a shortened week [markets closed Friday] helped by lower oil prices [$45.60 bbl] and a positive reading on the economical leading indicator (LEI), reported by the Government. Late morning trade saw the DJIA up by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 was higher by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ was up by 0.3 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- forecast continues to be subject to change.

12/20/04 Monday 5:39 pm ET- Major market indexes did well early on but trended lower to end near unchanged;  it was a slow news day, although the economical leading indicator [LEI] came in above expectations and reversed months of declines-  oil was lower on the day. Wednesday and Thursday [short trade week] will see a lot of economical data for investors to maul- should influence trading. The DJIA and S&P ended slightly higher within 0.1 percent of unchanged and the NASDAQ was lower by 0.3 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is still subject to change.  

 

12/18/04 Weekend-

12/18/04 Saturday 9:25 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how forecasting the U.S. stock market can help you. Just mouse-over and click the area of interest below-  all charts have been updated for Monday's open.  >The Market Memo page contains a seven week forecast, advisory memo, forecasting objectives and explanations.  >Forecasting performance is very important-  how well we forecast-  we benchmark our forecast indications to the S&P 500 index.  >The Barometer channel chart is a pictorial of the metrics of the forecasting models- we use the metrics of the models to make forecast changes.  >The Barometer Leading Indicator is used to identify potential changes in market direction- normally, this indicator alerts to a major direction change days before it happens.  >The forecast is continuously displayed in the upper-right corner of all public pages. For more information and description of the forecast-bug visit the Market Memo page.  >New users can get more information about Market-Barometer™ on the Markets page, About us page, and the Contents page.

12/19/04 Sunday 9:26 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  Barometer Chart   Forecast Objective  S&P 500 Forecast Performance Chart  

 

12/17/04 Friday-

12/17/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

12/17/04 Friday 11:31a ET- Stock market moves lower Friday amid Celebrex news from Pfizer [hart risk study taking drug] and economical data [CPI increased by 0.2 percent]. Oil is back above $45 bbl and today is options day which can cause volatility. DJIA was lower by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ slightly lower by 0.1, and the S&P 500 leading the way with a 0.6 percent loss.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. The forecast is subject to change.

12/17/04 Friday 4:55 pm ET- Pfizer-Celebrex warning sets negative tone, while CPI data suggests inflation is tame;  major averages slide into the weekend with slight gains for the week. The forecast, going into Christmas week, indicates caution with a positive bias- the forecast is subject to change. DJIA and NASDAQ end with a 1/2 percent loss;  the S&P 500 lost 0.8 percent.  

 

12/16/04 Thursday-

12/16/04 Thursday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-  possibly mixed open.

12/16/04 Thursday 10:58 am ET- Investors sift through mixed bag of economical data [November housing starts, jobless claims] and a continuation of M&A activity and hold stocks near the open prices. The indices hang around the opening values as investors and traders look for direction. The DJIA is slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ slightly lower by 0.1 percent, and the S&P 500 is flat.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. The forecast is subject to change.

12/16/04 Thursday 4:59p ET- M&A activity keeps traders active but mixed economical data [Nov. housing starts and jobless claims] keeps the stock market mixed with the averages [Dow and S&P] near neutral for the day but the NASDAQ got slammed with a 3/4 percent decline. The DJIA closed slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 slightly lower by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 0.8 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and continues to be subject to change.  

 

12/15/04 Wednesday-

12/15/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral to possibly mixed open.

12/15/04 Wednesday 11:07 am ET- Indices oscillate near unchanged most of the morning but move lower in late morning trading as the price of oil moves up [$43.55 bbl] ahead of the Governments oil supply/reserves report. The Barometer forecast, reviewed last evening, indicated no change to the current forecast [see forecaster notes]. The DJIA and S&P 500 were lower by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ lower by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

12/15/04 Wednesday 4:59 pm ET- Market ends positive even though it could have been a very negative day-  oil fear accounts for market top. Stocks couldn't get out of first-gear, as traders focused on Yukos and news that the oil supply dropped according to a Government report. Sprint-Nextel merger account for some positive-ness today. The DJIA and NASDAQ end slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 ended Wednesday session higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- a review yesterday evening indicates no change to the forecast.  

 

12/14/04 Tuesday-

12/14/04 Tuesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. NASDAQ could turn positive after the open.

12/14/04 Tuesday 11:06 am ET- Indices hang close to the unchanged-line as investors await the expected 25 basis point rate hike later this afternoon. The hike will put the rate target at 2.25 percent, which is the target the Federal Reserve will try and maintain until the next policy change-  the statement accompanying the rate hike announcement will be important for any possible policy direction change. The DJIA was flat, the S&P 500 was slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- the forecast is subject to change.

12/14/04 Tuesday 3:08 pm ET- The Federal Reserve FOMC raised the Fed funds rate target to 2.25 percent, as expected. Initial market reaction was neutral.

12/14/04 Tuesday 4:55 pm ET- Stocks put in another positive day on rate hike and GE news. The Fed increased the Fed funds rate to 2.25 percent and said they will continue monetary policy "measured pace" and separately, GE had some bullish statements from their performance and business outlook meeting. Both got investors attention as the indices got a positive spike on both events. The dow and S&P 500 ended higher by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ was higher by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias-  the forecast is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted later this evening after the last model run.

12/14/04 Tuesday 11:05 pm ET- The forecast was not changed- that's not bad news! See forecasters notes.  

 

12/13/04 Monday-

12/13/04 Monday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

12/13/04 Monday 10:58 am ET- The major indexes hold on to gains Monday on mixed economical data [retail sales, business inventory] as investors await the Fed's FOMC meeting tomorrow- it is expected that interest  rates [Fed funds interest rates] to be increased by 25 basis point making the rate 2.25 percent. The DJIA, S&P 500 are up by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ is higher by 1/2 percent. Oil is priced at $41.25 bbl, slightly higher in late morning trading. The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

12/13/04 Monday 5:08 pm ET- Stocks kick into high gear ahead of the Fed and end Monday nearly 1 percent richer. Mixed economical data and Oracle/PeopleSoft merger agreement sends the averages to close at the high of the day. The DJIA and S&P 500 close with a 0.9 percent gain, the NASDAQ closes up by 1 percent.  |  The Market Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.  

 

12/11/04 Weekend-

12/11/04 Saturday 8:52 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how forecasting the U.S. stock market can help you. Just mouse-over and click the area of interest below-  all charts have been updated for Monday's open.  >The Market Memo page contains a seven week forecast, advisory memo, forecasting objectives and explanations.  >Forecasting performance is very important-  how well we forecast-  we benchmark our forecast indications to the S&P 500 index.  >The Barometer channel chart is a pictorial of the metrics of the forecasting models- we use the metrics of the models to make forecast changes.  >The Barometer Leading Indicator is used to identify potential changes in market direction- normally, this indicator alerts to a major direction change days before it happens.  >The forecast is continuously displayed in the upper-right corner of all public pages. For more information and description of the forecast-bug visit the Market Memo page.  >New users can get more information about Market-Barometer™ on the Markets page, About us page, and the Contents page.

12/12/04 Sunday 8:45 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices. [Barometer Chart]  [Forecast Objective]  

 

12/10/04 Friday-

12/10/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

12/10/04 Friday 11:44 am ET- Major indexes oscillate around unchanged Friday morning amid increased inflation concerns [PPI came in higher than expected] but somewhat offset by higher reading in consumer sentiment. The price of oil advances on OPEC report of a decision to cut production and the Dollar continues to make progress against the Euro and Yen. Plus investors are anticipating another rate hike by the Fed on Tuesday sending the Fed funds target to 2.25 percent. In late morning trade, the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are down slightly by 0.1 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and the bias is subject to change.

12/10/04 Friday 5:05 pm ET- Stock market major indexes try for a comeback Friday but selling is reestablished mid afternoon as investors end the session [indices] near neutral. Investors got mixed signals [oil price turns around on OPEC, PPI shows inflation, consumer sentiment] Friday and opted to wait for the Fed to raise rates Tuesday as it is expected the Fed funds target to increase to 2.25 percent. Monday most likely will be as tame as today unless events dictate otherwise. The DJIA and S&P 500 end slightly lower by 0.1 percent-  the NASDAQ ends flat.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

 

12/9/04 Thursday-

12/9/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

12/9/04 Thursday 11:08 am ET- A tough jobless claims report and oil-price rebound has the market under pressure Thursday. Jobless initial claims came in over what economists had expected and oil prices [currently $42.70 bbl] put a damper on investors as the major indexes move lower in late morning trade. The DJIA is off by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.6 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ lower by 1.1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- the bias is subject to downgrade this afternoon.

12/9/04 Thursday 2:06 pm ET- We are experiencing a network computer problem- some pages [home page is the worst] loads very slow. Problem is being worked on.

12/9/04 Thursday 4:55 pm ET- Stocks turnaround [better than 1 percent from morning trade] and trend positive to end the day with gains amid higher than expected jobless claims-  higher oil prices-  higher Dollar, Dollar  takes back some lost territory against the Euro and Yen. The DJIA gained 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 was higher by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ slightly higher by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change-  no immediate change is expected.

 

12/8/04 Wednesday-

12/8/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open and start amid oil and gold moving lower.

12/8/04 Wednesday 11:00 am ET- Stocks move higher Wednesday as oil and gold prices decline, [since, oil back above $42. bbl] removing some of yesterdays negative sentiment. All eyes are on the oil supply report today and jobless claims tomorrow. The indices have stabilized and moved lower back to the unchanged-line with the DJIA slightly higher by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ slightly higher by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. The bias is subject to change.

12/8/04 Wednesday 4:59 pm ET- Market takes back some of yesterdays selling-  S&P 500 takes back nearly 1/2 of yesterdays loss. Oil and gold [commodities in general] was part of today's focus as both lost ground at the open with oil recovering to end slightly higher. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all gained 1/2 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change-  although no change is expected immediately.  

 

12/7/04 Tuesday-

12/7/04 Tuesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

12/7/04 Tuesday 11:36 am ET- Stocks meander Tuesday on light economical data;  future econ data this week for investors to eye is oil supply report tomorrow, jobless claims Thursday, and PPI report Friday. Meanwhile, not much conviction as the indices trend sideways;  DJIA and S&P 500 a virtually flat, but positive, the NASDAQ is slightly higher by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12/7/04 Tuesday 4:59 pm ET- corrected- Stocks take a hit Tuesday as the major indexes decline more than 1 percent on a day that sees the price of oil move lower-  economical reports were also mixed. The DJIA and S&P 500 lost 1.1 percent, the NASDAQ lost 1.7 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.  

 

12/6/04 Monday-

12/6/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

12/6/04 Monday 10:49 am ET- Stocks retreat Monday morning on little reason to bid stocks higher-  little in way of economical data and earnings-  oil back above $43. bbl as investors await data this week to trade on.. The DJIA off by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ down by 0.2 percent.  |  The Market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive Barometer bias.

12/6/04 Monday 4:58 pm ET- Dow moves lower on downgrades-  S&P 500 and NASDAQ end near neutral Monday. With little news to move traders, stocks meander as investors await productivity and consumer credit reports tomorrow. The DJIA lost nearly 1/2 percent today while the S&P 500 ended slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ end slightly higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

12/4/04 Weekend-

12/4/04 Saturday 8:34 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how forecasting the U.S. stock market can help you. Just mouse-over and click the area of interest below-  all charts have been updated for Monday's open.  >The Market Memo page contains a seven week forecast, advisory memo, forecasting objectives and explanations.  >Forecasting performance is very important-  how well we forecast-  we benchmark our forecast indications to the S&P 500 index.  >The Barometer channel chart is a pictorial of the metrics of the forecasting models- we use the metrics of the models to make forecast changes.  >The Barometer Leading Indicator is used to identify potential changes in market direction- normally, this indicator alerts to a major direction change days before it happens.  >The forecast is continuously displayed in the upper-right corner of all public pages. For more information and description of the forecast-bug visit the Market Memo page.  >New users can get more information about Market-Barometer™ on the Markets page, About us page, and the Contents page.

12/5/04 Sunday 9:07 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices. [Barometer Chart]  [Forecast Objective]  

 

12/3/04 Friday-

12/3/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

12/3/04 Friday 10:55 am ET- The economy added 112,000 new jobs in November, well below expectations.

12/3/04 Friday 11:53 am ET- Market turns positive after negative open Friday on a disappointing jobs report [nonfarm payroll report] this morning. Stocks turned around midmorning amid falling oil price [now at $42.55 bbl] and on Intel renewed outlook. The DJIA and S&P 500 are up by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ is up by 0.4 percent.  |  The barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12/3/04 Friday 4:55 pm ET- Stocks turned positive midmorning-  after a negative start-  but as the indices reflect, mixed news sees the averages end nearly unchanged for the day. Jobs data [nonfarm payroll] set the early negative tone for investors but it was short-lived, as Intel upped its business outlook and oil prices continued lower, setting the stage for buying. The indices settled for a flat day with the DJIA and S&P 500 advancing by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ ended with a 0.2 percent gain.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

12/2/04 Thursday-

12/2/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

12/2/04 Thursday 11:06 am ET- Initial jobless claims increase by 25,000 last week;  the 4-week moving average is 336,500.

12/2/04 Thursday 11:57 am ET- Stocks rebound Thursday morning from a negative open amid mixed economical data [retail sales, jobs data, factory report] and oil continues to move lower, now below $44 bbl. The DJIA and S&P 500 were slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ was up over 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- the forecast is subject to upgrade if today continues positive.

12/2/04 Thursday 4:55 pm ET- Investors rest Thursday after running stocks up Wednesday. Price of oil continues to drop and mixed economical data [jobless claims, factory orders, retail sales] has investors waiting on jobs data [jobs created and unemployment rate] out tomorrow- economists are expecting a healthy number of jobs to be added to the economy-  any disappointment could cause some selling Friday. The DJIA and S&P 500 closed slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ was higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- no forecast change is expected.  

 

12/1/04 Wednesday-

12/1/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

12/1/04 Wednesday 11:33 am ET- Stocks rally late morning Wednesday [indices higher by 1 percent] as bullish economical data [ ISM and consumer reports] and falling oil prices [47.60 bbl, -1.53 ] fuel buying. The DJIA was higher by 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 up by 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ was up by 1.4 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

12/1/04 Wednesday 4:55 pm ET- The stock market rallied Wednesday as investors cheer good economical data [ISM, beige book, and consumer reports] as the price of oil dives [drops below $46 bbl] on supply [reserves] buildup. The DJIA ended up by 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 was higher on the day by 1.5 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ outperformed and ended up by 2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.  

 

11/30/04 Tuesday-

11/30/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open- Could turn mixed.

11/30/04 Tuesday 10:38 am ET- The Government reported today that annual GDP in the 3rd. quarter increased 3.9 percent (preliminary), better than economists had expected.

11/30/04 Tuesday 11:05 am ET- Market off to a moderately lower start Tuesday amid better than expected GDP reading from the Government and other mixed economical data released this morning. Oil trying to maintain $50 bbl and gold moves lower, off of the $450 line. The DJIA and S&P 500 are lower by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ is off by 0.3 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change today.

11/30/04 Tuesday 5:10 pm ET- Last day of November trading sees the averages move lower amid good GDP data but other mixed economical reports. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday with a 0.4 percent loss, the DJIA and NASDAQ ended lower by 1/2 percent. For November, the DJIA rose 4 percent, the S&P 500 was higher by 3.9 percent, and the NASDAQ was up by 6.2 percent. The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.  

 

11/29/04 Monday-

11/29/04 Monday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11/29/04 Monday 11:12 am ET- Socks rollover and go negative amid confusing retail sales data;  Wall Mart disappoints, oil and gold prices moving higher Monday morning. The DJIA sporting a loss of 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 index off by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ turns negative with a 0.1 percent loss.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution.

11/29/04 Monday 4:55 pm ET- Stocks end midpoint of the highs/lows of the session Monday amid minor bond market strategy concern, Wal-Mart disappointment, higher gold-oil prices, and Black Friday retail sales concern. The DJIA closed lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was lower by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ moved slightly higher and closed positive with a 0.2 percent gain on the day.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution.   

 

11/27/04 Weekend-

11/27/04 Saturday 9:05 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how forecasting the U.S. stock market can help you. Just mouse-over and click the area of interest below-  all charts have been updated for Monday's open.  >The Market Memo page contains a seven week forecast, advisory memo, forecasting objectives and explanations.  >Forecasting performance is very important-  how well we forecast-  we benchmark our forecast indications to the S&P 500 index.  >The Barometer channel chart is a pictorial of the metrics of the forecasting models- we use the metrics of the models to make forecast changes.  >The Barometer Leading Indicator is used to identify potential changes in market direction- normally, this indicator alerts to a major direction change days before it happens.  >The forecast is continuously displayed in the upper-right corner of all public pages. For more information and description of the forecast-bug visit the Market Memo page.  >New users can get more information about Market-Barometer™ on the Markets page, About us page, and the Contents page.

11/28/04 Sunday 9:03 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

11/26/04 Friday- Thanksgiving holiday- short trade day-

11/26/04 Friday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

11/26/04 Friday 11:16 am ET- Major indexes move higher Friday on a short trade day amid early reports that Black Friday [one of the biggest days in retail sales] shopping is off to a good start. What is expected to be a slow day in the financial markets, with low volume and many investors taking a long 4-days, the DJIA is sporting a 0.2 percent gain, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. NYSE and NASDAQ will close at 1:00 pm ET and reopen for a full session Monday.

11/26/04 Friday 1:48 pm ET- The stock market ends the Thanksgiving holiday short week with the major indexes ending nearly unchanged for the day. Many traders are off for a long 4-day's and will be back Monday to decide market direction-  to take us to the end of the year. The S&P ended with a slight gain of 0.1 percent, the DJIA and NASDAQ ended flat.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

11/24/04 Wednesday-

11/24/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open- could turn mixed.

11/24/04 Wednesday 12:57 pm ET- Indices choppy in midday trade ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday as investors mule the latest economical data. Oil lower all morning is beginning to trend higher as the major indexes move lower and sideways. The DJIA was flat, the S&P 500 was up by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ was higher by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

11/24/04 Wednesday 4:55 pm ET- Indices end in pre-holiday style- in positive territory with notable gains on the NASDAQ. Low volume Wednesday as many investors and traders takeoff for the holiday and will return Monday-  Friday will be a shortened day with tomorrow being closed for Thanksgiving.  The DJIA closed with a 0.3 percent gain, the S&P 500 up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ outperformed with a 0.9 percent advance.  |  The forecast, unchanged, will go into Friday indicating caution with a positive bias.

11/24/04 Wednesday 10:44 pm ET- U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day holiday. Stock market will reopen Friday for a shortened session.  

 

11/23/04 Tuesday-

11/23/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

11/23/04 Tuesday 11:11 am ET- Indices move lower, late morning Tuesday, amid higher oil prices [approaching $50 bbl] and lower Dollar. With low volume expected today, market could get volatile ahead of Wednesday's jobless data and consumer sentiment reports. The DJIA and S&P 500 are lower by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ is off by 1/2 percent.  |  The Market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution.

11/23/04 Tuesday 5:05 pm ET- Market ends in neutral after early move lower on oil- Dollar- Intel news. Market could react to jobs data and consumer sentiment [economic reports] tomorrow;  low volume can  enhance volatility-  indices could, again, end Wednesday near unchanged. The DJIA closed Tuesday's session with a slight gain of 0.03 percent, S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended slightly lower within 0.04 percent of unchanged.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

11/22/04 Monday-

11/22/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

11/22/04 Monday 10:50 am ET- Oil back in focus, as the price per barrel is just under $50. A shortened week as the markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving;  could see slow trading all week. Monday's trading most likely to see a slow day as investors will want to see Tuesday's economical data-  jobless claims, consumer sentiment, and others-  could influence sentiment Tuesday. The DJIA and S&P 500 are off by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ is lower by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

11/22/04 Monday 5:10 pm ET- Investors come back from lunch in a good mood and buy stocks-  market turns around and advances on less than stellar volume. Oil falls back slightly as worries over the Dollar get quashed, for the time being. With some economical data to maul tomorrow, traders look to Wednesday for jobless new-claims data and consumer sentiment for direction, in an otherwise anticipated slow week. The DJIA closed 0.3 percent higher, the S&P 500 with a 0.6 percent gain, and the NASDAQ with a 0.7 percent gain.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias- positive bias in a cautionary market means the indices are seen favorable to advance.  

 

11/20/04 Weekend-

11/20/04 Saturday 12:51 pm ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how forecasting the U.S. stock market can help you. Just mouse-over and click the area of interest below-  all charts have been updated for Monday's open.  >The Market Memo page contains a seven week forecast, advisory memo, forecasting objectives and explanations.  >Forecasting performance is very important-  how well we forecast-  we benchmark our forecast indications to the S&P 500 index.  >The Barometer channel chart is a pictorial of the metrics of the forecasting models- we use the metrics of the models to make forecast changes.  >The Barometer Leading Indicator is used to identify potential changes in market direction- normally, this indicator alerts to a major direction change days before it happens.  >The forecast is continuously displayed in the upper-right corner of all public pages. For more information and description of the forecast-bug visit the Market Memo page.  >New users can get more information about Market-Barometer™ on the Markets page, About us page, and the Contents page.

11/21/04 Sunday 10:04 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models continue to indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

11/19/04 Friday-

11/19/04 Friday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Could turn mixed.

11/19/04 Friday 11:51 am ET- Stocks drop in Friday morning trade amid Greenspan comments [no economical data today] as investors take profits ahead of shortened week [Markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving]. The DJIA is off by 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 1 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 1.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution.

11/19/04 Friday 5:18 pm ET- Indices end lower Friday amid continuous stream of bad news and events;  Greenspan speech and oil surges back above $48 bbl;  Dollar moves lower against the Yen and Euro. And today was options expiration- November contracts. The DJIA and S&P 500 lost 1.1 percent, the NASDAQ hit the hardest with a 1.6 percent loss. |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

11/18/04 Thursday-

11/18/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

11/18/04 Thursday 11:09 am ET- Market starts out in mixed mode as tech heavy NASDAQ lags on AMAT outlook, while the Dow and S&P are within shouting range of unchanged. The Barometer Leading Indicator continues at neutral while the forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  |  In late morning trading, the DJIA was higher by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ turning positive by 0.1 percent.

11/18/04 Thursday 4:58 pm ET- Market investors were cautious Thursday amid mixed economical data and not-so-good news from AMAT and Google [business outlook warning]. Stocks, however, inched up and the major indexes closed slightly higher within 0.2 percent of unchanged. The Dow Jones Ind. 30 and NASDAQ closed slightly higher by 0.2 percent, S&P 500 closed just above unchanged.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias-  this means the major indices are performing [and should continue to] positive but caution to should be used... see forecast objective...   

 

11/17/04 Wednesday-

11/17/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- look for a positive open and start.

11/17/04 Wednesday 11:30 am ET- Stocks open strong Wednesday on Kmart-Sears merger and amid economical data [CPI and housing starts]. Oil slightly lower at $46 bbl. The DJIA and S&P 500 are higher by 1.1 percent, the NASDAQ is up on the session by 1.6 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  |  See forecast objective for more information on market direction.

11/17/04 Wednesday 4:55 pm ET- Market surges out of the gate Wednesday on good economical data [cpi, housing starts] and Kmart-Sears merger. Late day selling in stocks trend the indices off the highs as, once again, oil takes center stage and runs the price up to $46.84 bbl. Major indexes close well off the highs of the day but with substantial gains;   the DJIA and S&P 500 closed up 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ up by 1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

11/16/04 Tuesday-

11/16/04 Tuesday 9:28 am ET- Look for a negative open.

11/16/04 Tuesday 11:33 am ET- Stocks opened depressed Tuesday morning on news of  the Governments PPI report that indicates higher prices in October caused, on a large part, by higher food and energy costs. The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 1.7 percent in October, well above expectation, causing some concern of inflation returning to the economy. In late morning trade, the DJIA and S&P 500 were down by 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ was off by 0.8 percent.  |  The Market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution and is subject to change.

11/16/04 Tuesday 4:57 pm ET- Inflation worries hit investors Tuesday on a strong PPI report that indicates prices could become a problem down the road- CPI report tomorrow will shed more light the matter. Meanwhile, the market started out in negative territory and trend lower all day [S&P 500]. The DJIA lost 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ lost 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.  

 

11/15/04 Monday-

11/15/04 Monday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11/15/04 Monday 11:23 am ET- Stocks move slightly lower, late Monday morning, amid continued falling oil prices and a two-week rally that boosted the indices from the summer slowdown- soft patch. The DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 are lower by 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 percent, respectively.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Forecast continues to be subject to change.

11/15/04 Monday 4:53 pm ET- Slow day sees NASDAQ gain-  Dow and S&P 500 end near unchanged on very little news to move investors to trade. Next several days sees PPI, CPI, and jobless initial claims data that could move the market. The DJIA closed up 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 near unchanged, and the NASDAQ gained by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

11/13/04 Weekend-

11/13/04 Saturday 9:10 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how the Barometer can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot and boundaries moving higher. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is positive. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

11/14/04 Sunday 9:56 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices. see forecast note.  

 

11/12/04 Friday-

11/12/04 Friday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Could turn mixed.

11/12/04 Friday 11:49 am ET- Appears the market wants to rest this week from the election rally last week as the indices continue to hold close to unchanged in Friday morning trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is near unchanged, The S&P 500 is slightly positive by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ is higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast, unchanged last evening, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and continues to be subject to change.

11/12/04 Friday 5:08 pm ET- Late day advance for stocks as the major indexes, in positive territory most of the day, turn higher in the last two-hours of trade Friday to post better than 1.5 percent gain for the week. Evening forecast models will run at 9:30 pm and any change to the forecast will be posted around 11:00 pm. The DJIA ended Friday's trade with a 0.7 percent gain, the S&P 500 higher by 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ closed higher by 1.2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change this evening.

11/12/04 Friday 11:04 pm ET- No change to the forecast. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. See forecasters note. Get a definition of a cautionary  market.  

 

11/11/04 Thursday Veterans' Day-

11/11/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11/11/04 Thursday 11:14 am ET- Stocks get off on the right foot Thursday morning on lower oil prices and renewed prospect for Mideast peace on the passing of Arafat last evening. The DJIA was higher by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and the forecast is subject to change.

11/11/04 Thursday 4:55 pm ET- Stocks move higher Thursday amid oil moving lower and a renewed hope for peace in the middle east. There is a bunch of economical data coming out tomorrow for traders and investors to mull- see if this bond-less day can keep together with another advance in stocks. The Dow Jones 30 index closed higher by 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 closed higher by 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ outperformed with a 1.3 percent gain on the day.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- forecast is subject to change. The current forecast indicates stocks most likely to move higher but caution should be used.  

 

11/10/04 Wednesday-

11/10/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open, could turn mixed.

11/10/04 Wednesday 11:30 am ET- Dow and S&P hold close to unchanged, NASDAQ 1/2 percent lower as the street waits for the Fed announcement of another rate hike and more importantly any hint of a policy change. The DJIA was slightly off by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 nearly unchanged, and the NASDAQ was much lower by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

11/10/04 Wednesday 4:51 pm ET- Dow and S&P end neutral- NASDAQ moves lower. The Federal Reserve increased the target for the Fed funds interest rate to a full 2 percent and didn't indicate any change in monetary policy- this gives way for further hikes in December and 2005. The DJIA ended nearly unchanged, the S&P 500 ended slightly off by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 0.4 percent.   |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change. Check the forecast performance chart.  

 

11/9/04 Tuesday-

11/9/04 Tuesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11/9/04 Tuesday 10:45 am ET- Market indices continue to hold close to the unchanged-line as investors await the Fed meeting tomorrow, where it is likely they will raise interest rates. The market will also be interested in what the Fed says about future rate hikes. In midmorning trade, the DJIA and NASDAQ are slightly off by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 index is nearly unchanged.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change. A new chart was introduced yesterday that gives a better view of the forecast and also shows how we are doing in forecasting the market. Link to the chart can be found on the right-side navigation area on all pages. The link is called Forecast Performance.

11/9/04 Tuesday 2:55 pm ET- We have a new chart- now you can SEE the stock market forecast...

11/9/04 Tuesday 4:55 pm ET- Ditto yesterday! Market ends nearly unchanged with the indices slightly lower as investors look for the Federal Reserve FOMC to raise Fed funds rate tomorrow. It is widely expected for another rate hike but analysts want to see if the Fed will give out any hint on policy change- most think we will get another hike in December. The DJIA and S&P 500 closed lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.  |  Checkout the Performance Chart!  

 

11/8/04 Monday-

11/8/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11/8/04 Monday 11:20 am ET- Stocks meander Monday morning holding close to the unchanged line as investors get set for the Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday, where it is expected that a rate hike will be announced. The DJIA is slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 is lower by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is unchanged.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

11/8/04 Monday 4:50 pm ET- Market takes a rest Monday as traders and investors are on Fed watch. The Federal Reserve- FOMC  is expected to raise rates Wednesday, but all eyes will be on the accompanying statement for any hint of change in Fed policy direction. Meanwhile, the market ended in neutral with the DJIA and NASDAQ slightly positive, and the S&P slightly lower by 0.1 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. Forecast is subject to change.

11/8/04 Monday 11:56 pm ET- Introducing a new chart-  Forecast Performance chart-  a sort of report card on how we are doing forecasting the U.S. stock market, compared to the S&P 500 index. The objective of the Barometer forecast is to identify advancing and declining markets, so the new chart can be used to see how we are doing in forecasting and to see a visual forecast overlaid with the S&P 500 index. The link to get to the chart is here, Forecast performance, and on the right-side navigation area on all pages. We hope this will give you a better visual of the direction of the market using Barometer forecast methodology.  

 

11/6/04 Weekend-

11/6/04 Saturday 9:39 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot and boundaries moving higher. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is positive. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

11/6/04 Saturday 11:17 am ET- Last evenings forecast models indicated no change to the forecast-  data shows minor resistance for Monday-Tuesday's market. The bias was changed Thursday to positive but the forecast continues to indicate caution. A forecast of caution with a positive bias means the market has improved over the past months but caution is indicated. A caution forecast means the market can advance or decline in the short-term but the edge is for the market to advance- a positive bias. The market could pullback slightly early next week as the past several days have seen a very positive attitude amount investors. The forecast continues to be subject to change and change could come early in the week if the market continues to perform well.

11/7/04 Sunday 10:09 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

11/5/04 Friday-

11/5/04 Friday 9:29 am ET- Look for a positive open and start.

11/5/04 Friday 1:55 pm ET- Stocks continue higher, Friday afternoon, on a surprise nonfarm payroll report where 337,000 new jobs were added to the economy in October-  experts were expecting more like 160,000. Oil continues higher but under $50 bbl. The close Barometer models will run to quantify another forecast change- currently the forecast indicates caution with the bias upgraded yesterday to positive.  |  The DJIA is higher by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 1/2 percent.

11/5/04 Friday 4:50 pm ET-  Investors continue aggressive buying and stage another rally, this time on jobs data;   the economy adds 137,000 more jobs in October-  market expected half that. Investors buying up stocks to end a good week that saw major change in sentiment Wednesday-  election worries gone. Now that the election is over and we have had some good economical data, what will next week bring-  what will the Fed do? is the question. Market probably will become tame as we get closer to the Fed meeting. The forecast bias was changed to positive yesterday with hopes of getting a forecast change soon- the models will run this evening and any change to the forecast will come after the model run. Meanwhile, the forecast now stands at caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.  |  The day ended with the DJIA seeing a 0.7 percent gain, the S&P 500 saw a 0.4 percent gain, and the NASDAQ ended with a 0.8 percent gain.

 

11/4/04 Thursday-

11/4/04 Thursday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

11/4/04 Thursday 11:23 am ET- Back to reality for investors as the election-rally appears to be over and the focus now is the economy and corporate outlook. With nonfarm payroll report tomorrow, stocks may rest today and take-off one way or the other after we see how many jobs were created in October-  job creation has been lagging for months-  a good number Friday could give a lift to stocks. For now, the DJIA is higher by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ near unchanged.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

11/4/04 Thursday 3:51 pm ET- Forecast change in-progress, details to come...

11/4/04 Thursday 4:37 pm ET- Bush-rally continues [day two] and causes the Barometer models to change bias settings...

11/4/04 Thursday 5:39 pm ET- Day two of the election-bush-rally sees major gains as the S&P 500 index penetrates Spring highs. Good signs from the market that this rally could continue into January. A better than expected jobs report [nonfarm payroll report] tomorrow could even boost the averages further. The Barometer forecast bias was change prior to-  today's close and the data tomorrow will be very important in determining if this rally has legs to last into January.   |  The DJIA closed with a 1.8 percent gain, the S&P 500 was higher by 1.6 percent, and the NASDAQ was up by 1 percent.   |  The Barometer stock market forecast now indicate caution with a positive bias- the bias always leads the forecast- the forecast continues to be subject to change.

 

11/3/04 Wednesday-

11/3/04 Wednesday 9:06 am ET- Futures are up, world markets mostly positive, and the President appears to have won the election with Ohio [and a few other States] still continuing to count returns- Bush holds lead in Ohio. Fox News Network projects Bush one vote away from cinching the Presidency for four more years. The Barometer stock market models, however, doesn't indicate a change to the forecast at this time as Kerry camp will holdout conceding at least through midmorning. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The bias is subject to change.

11/3/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a positive open on investors perceived Bush win.

11/3/04 Wednesday 10:50 am ET- Stocks rally Wednesday morning with belief that President Bush will retain office for another 4-years. No word from the Kerry camp on how long they will keep the contest going as Edwards said they wouldn't give up until all votes have been counted. The DJIA is higher by 1.4 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ higher by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

11/3/04 Wednesday 4:57 pm ET- Bush re-elected-  Kerry concedes as oil moves slightly higher and the morning rally fades, trends lower all day but ending with very respectable gains. World leaders congratulate the President and commend the American people for making the right choice.  The DJIA gains 1 percent, the S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ended higher by 1 percent.  |  Now the market will refocus on fundamentals- corporate profits/outlook, the economy, and the Fed. Traders and investors start anew Thursday refocusing and adjusting- see if this rally can stay together. Meanwhile, the forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.     

 

11/2/04 Tuesday- Presidential Election Day

11/2/04 Tuesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11/2/04 Tuesday 10:51 am ET- Thus far, investors are not fretting who will be President as indicated by the averages. The question becomes will we have a clear-cut election and know who will be the next President, or not. Investors should be cautious until later tonight when results come in and a trend develops- hopefully a winner will be known before the open tomorrow. In late morning trading the DJIA was up by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ was positive by 0.8 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- the bias is subject to change later this evening.

11/2/04 Tuesday 5:01 pm ET- Reality sets in the last hour of trade Tuesday, as the indices turn south and move lower off of the election-inspired rally to end neutral ahead of election results. It now comes down to counting returns, as voters pick the next President of the United States. The market is expecting to start Wednesday with knowing who was elected- the market can deal with either candidate but it cannot deal with not knowing who won the election. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The bias is subject to change this evening.  

 

11/1/04 Monday-

11/1/04 Monday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

11/1/04 Monday 10:43 am ET- Ahead of the Presidential election, the U.S. stock market keeps to within a fraction of unchanged. Investors are jittery over the outcome of the election, as the contest looks close enough for major uncertainty to set in with recounts and court action to muddy the process. Look for investors to react very negatively if a President hasn't been elected by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, stocks Monday morning are as close to unchanged as the race for the Presidency is to even, with the DJIA lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

11/1/04 Monday 4:45 pm ET- Oil continues lower and closes just over $51 bbl while stocks rise into positive territory. Election concerns overwhelm and the indices come back to roost on the unchanged line. Unless there's some really big news Tuesday, look for more of the same [neutral market] with a rally or sell off on Wednesday depending on the outcome of the election, or not. The DJIA and NASDAQ closed Monday higher by 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged.  | The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and will be subject to change later Tuesday.  

 

10/30/04 Weekend-

10/30/04 Saturday 9:59 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot and boundaries generally moving sideways. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

10/31/04 Sunday 9:40 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

10/29/04 Friday-

10/29/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Could see mixed start after the open.

10/29/04 Friday 11:48 am ET- With mixed results from economical data [GDP, jobless claims, consumer sentiment, Beige Book, and others] and the election days away, investors hold the market in neutral not willing to bet either way- the big hope is that we get a President and not more uncertainty with recounts and court action. So until the big event, look for continued sideways market, all things equal. At midday, the DJIA was unchanged, the S&P 500 was slightly lower by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ was off by 0.4 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/29/04 Friday 4:56 pm ET- Stocks meander Friday, last day of the week and month, as investors look forward to election week and hopes of a post election rally. The DJIA and S&P 500 closed Friday with a 0.2 percent gain, NASDAQ ended near the unchanged line.  |  The market forecast shows caution with a neutral bias going into the Presidential election period.  

 

10/28/04 Thursday-

10/28/04 Thursday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10/28/04 Thursday 11:13 am ET- Market moves lower in early trading Thursday after two-day positive returns. Oil regains some strength and is above $52 bbl. With election day just around the corner, most likely will see a subdued market unless major news sways trading. The DJIA is slightly lower by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are lower as well at 0.2 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral forecast bias. Neutral bias means the models are not favoring a positive nor negative market- bias always leads the forecast.

10/28/04 Thursday 4:45 pm ET- Oil continues to trade lower [now below $51 bbl] and the economy lost 20,000 workers to initial unemployment claims. The election is days away and most likely we will see a very subdued market until a clear-winner is known. All three major indices [DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ] close slightly lower within 0.3 percent.  |  And of course the forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/27/04 Wednesday-

10/27/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

10/27/04 Wednesday 11:21 am ET- Stocks opened mixed Wednesday but have pushed higher amid mixed economical data [durable goods;  new home sales] and oil much lower [$53.75 bbl] on talk of U.S. release of oil reserves. The DJIA is higher by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1.5 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/27/04 Wednesday 4:45 pm ET- Stocks take another major step along with the price of oil Wednesday as the stock market rallies and gets the S&P 500 index smack-dab in the middle of the 1100-1150 trading range as it closed at 1125.40, up 1.3 percent. The DJIA closed up 1.2 percent, while the NASDAQ closed 2.1 percent higher.  Couple more days of this kind of performance could lead to a forecast change- but not likely until we get past the election. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral forecast bias.  

 

10/26/04 Tuesday-

10/26/04 Tuesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10/26/04 Tuesday 11:25 am ET- Sentiment has improved midday Tuesday,  as the DJIA and S&P are well into positive territory-  NASDAQ slightly higher. In the past 10-trade days, we have had more negative days than positive, and to keep in the sideways moving market theme, we can expect a few more positive days to keep the market tracking sideways. Meanwhile, the DJIA is higher by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 positive by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ if slightly positive by 0.1 percent.  |  The market forecast, if you hadn't guessed, indicates caution with a neutral bias.

10/26/04 Tuesday 4:50 pm ET- Poor consumer confidence report is discounted Tuesday as stocks rally to get back in trading range. Helped by Marsh company reforms [CEO was terminated] the market indexes surge to gain back some lost territory of past weeks. Oil collectively holds ground at $55 bbl as it appears a trading base is being built- could see much higher oil prices. The DJIA closed with a 1.4 percent gain, the S&P 500 gained 1.5 percent, and the NASDAQ gained 0.8 percent.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/25/04 Monday-

10/25/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10/25/04 Monday 10:49 am ET- U.S. stock market gets off to an early move lower as investors look for direction amid numerous obstacles. From an anticipated move higher by oil price to the 2004 Presidential election and corporate profits, investors are maintaining a trading range until uncertainty can be eliminated. The Dow Jones 30 index and the NASDAQ are slightly lower Monday morning by 0.2 percent, while the S&P 500 is off by 0.3 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast models continue to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/25/04 Monday 4:45 pm ET- Norway oil strike cools as oil does [below $55 bbl] but election jitters keeps the market in tight trading range as the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ end slightly lower by 0.1 percent. If we avert big market-moving news for the next week, we most likely will see a continued sideways movement of stocks until investors get a better handle on the Presidential election. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/23/04 Weekend-

10/23/04 Saturday 9:32 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot and boundaries moving sideways. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

10/24/04 Sunday 9:16 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into tomorrow's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

10/22/04 Friday-

10/22/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

10/22/04 Friday 12:42 pm ET- Stocks trade lower Friday midday as oil concerns continue to dog traders with the fear that prices could move substantially higher-  oil price is again above $55 bbl. The DJIA and S&P 500 are lower by 0.15 percent, the NASDAQ is off by 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/22/04 Friday 4:45 pm ET- Today's trading strategy was sell the market, buy Google-  as Google blows away earnings expectation and is rewarded. Google has nearly doubled its share price since IPO. The rest of the market can be summed up as "October", when markets get volatile. The DJIA ended Friday with a 1.1 percent loss, the S&P lost 1 percent, and the NASDAQ hit hardest lost 2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- expect volatility as the election approaches.  

 

10/21/04 Thursday-

10/21/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10/21/04 Thursday 10:38 am ET- Oil hovers around $54 bbl, good economical data as stocks open Thursday in neutral. The DJIA is off by 0.4 percent, the S&P is off by 0.1 percent, while the NASDAQ is in positive territory by 0.3 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate caution.

10/21/04 Thursday 4:47 pm ET- Indices end mixed with the Dow slightly lower, the S&P 500 slightly higher, and the NASDAQ rallies over 1 percent. Price of oil holds near $55 bbl, not really a factor in Thursdays market. The Market Barometer models continue to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/20/04 Wednesday-

10/20/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

10/20/04 Wednesday 11:30 am ET- Stocks push lower amid oil supply concerns and corporate outlook. Mixed economical data continues to give traders concern over the recovery "slow patch" as investors move stocks lower Wednesday morning. The DJIA is down by 1/2 percent, the S&P near unchanged, and the NASDAQ lower by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show caution with a neutral bias.

10/20/04 Wednesday 4:46 pm ET- Sluggish-  mixed market ends in neutral-  NASDAQ gains. Oil settles near $54 bbl and earnings misses keep investors at home. The DJIA closed slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 closed nearly unchanged, the NASDAQ was higher by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution, the bias is at neutral.  

 

10/19/04 Tuesday-

10/19/04 Tuesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10/19/04 Tuesday 10:54 am ET- The popular averages reflect the mood of investors amid good profits and lower oil prices midmorning Tuesday. The DJIA is higher by 0.3 percent, the S&P in unchanged, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.6 percent on tech earnings and outlook statements.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/19/04 Tuesday 4:51 pm ET- After Monday - Friday advance, Tuesday sees a pullback in the U.S. stock market as measured by the popular averages. The DJIA ended Tuesday with a 0.6 percent loss, the S&P 500 lost 1 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 0.7 percent. After a midmorning advance, sentiment turned and stocks trended lower all day to end the S&P 500 index back to where it was Thursday. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/18/04 Monday-

10/18/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10/18/04 Monday 10:48 am ET- Mostly negative earnings and high oil prices continue to attract attention early Monday, as the DJIA is off by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, off by 0.3 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- bias is subject to change.

10/18/04 Monday 5:04 pm ET- Market turns around midmorning-  oil prices move lower, stocks move higher to end with two-days of positive sentiment as traders gear up for earnings and, more importantly, business outlook. The Dow Jones 30 index ended up by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 ended higher by 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ was higher by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- bias is subject to change.   

 

10/16/04 Weekend-

10/16/04 Saturday 9:48 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

10/17/04 Sunday 8:53 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into tomorrows open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

10/15/04 Friday-

10/15/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10/15/04 Friday 11:09 am ET- Stocks move higher amid lower price of oil and economical data. After several days of selling, the popular averages show a modest rebound on less negative news and oil trending lower [price is below $55 bbl]. The DJIA is higher by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- the bias is subject to change.

10/15/04 Friday 4:57 pm ET- Up day, down week, as oil and mixed economical data continue to dog traders. Investors were able to turn the market higher Friday, partly on Greenspan comments about oil and generally market pattern- trading range. The Dow ended up by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended higher by 1/2 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- bias is subject to change, but not expected this evening.  

 

10/14/04 Thursday-

10/14/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

10/14/04 Thursday 11:06 am ET- Oil continues to drive sentiment;  disappointing initial jobless claims helps depress stocks Thursday.  |  The DJIA and NASDAQ are lower by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 is off by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- bias is again subject to change.

10/14/04 Thursday 4:59 pm ET- Market indices continue lower Thursday on the same old concerns of oil price and, basically, just plain negative news;  from poor earnings results to general uncertainty. The DJIA closed lower by 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended lower by 0.9 percent.  |  The market forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias- bias is subject to change.  

 

10/13/04 Wednesday-

10/13/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET- look for a positive open and start today on oil easing;  good earnings reports.

10/13/04 Wednesday 10:44 am ET- Dow and S&P 500 indices sink after good start Wednesday amid oil well-off the high of the week- NASDAQ holds its gains. The DJIA and S&P are slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ holds 1/2 percent gain.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/13/04 Wednesday 5:12 pm ET- Oil, once again, keeps traders fears alive;  basically, with nothing else to motivate investors- oil does the trick. We could be seeing oil building a base in the low $50's bbl. Higher prices and lower corporate profits isn't what investors want to see. Could see more downside risk for stocks. The DJIA and S&P 500 are off by 0.7 percent, the NASDAQ lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- the bias is subject to change, again.  

 

10/12/04 Tuesday-

10/12/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10/12/04 Tuesday 10:33 am ET- Indices get off to a negative start Tuesday on continued oil fears;  oil topped $54 bbl but has trend slightly lower in early trade. The DJIA is off by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 is lower by 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ is off by 0.8 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/12/04 Tuesday 4:51 pm ET- Oil continues to be the story for traders as price got past $54 bbl but closed much lower, allowing stocks to regain most of the days losses. The DJIA closed off by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast shows caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/11/04 Monday-

10/11/04 Monday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral open- possibly mixed start.

10/11/04 Monday 11:01 am ET- Oil continues advance as the stock market opens positive and hangs close to the unchanged line. The DJIA is higher by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 up by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

10/11/04 Monday 4:50 pm ET- Market up- oil up- slow day-  no economical data to trade on. Investors gear up for earnings and business projection coming soon. The dow closed 0.3 percent higher, S&P 500 0.2 percent higher, and the NASDAQ 1/2 percent higher.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/9/04 Weekend-

10/9/04 Saturday 9:24 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot crossing the boundaries as they generally move higher. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

10/10/04 Sunday 9:23 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

10/8/04 Friday-

10/8/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a negative open on jobs report.

10/8/04 Friday 11:18 am ET- Market indexes opened lower Friday on disappointing jobs report. And since, has been slightly higher and now moving lower as economical data continues to show a mixed economical picture. Midmorning the DJIA and S&P 500 was negative by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ was lower by 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast, changed Wednesday, indicates caution with a neutral bias.

10/8/04 Friday 4:55 pm ET- Market moves lower Friday on jobs report and high price oil. Oil moves and closes above $53 bbl on supply fears and the economy added 96,000 jobs in September- experts were looking for more like 144,000.  |  The DJIA closed lower by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ got whacked by 1.5 percent.   |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/7/04 Thursday-

10/7/04 Thursday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10/7/04 Thursday 10:57 am ET- The popular averages are down midmorning on the continuing advance of oil [hits $53 bbl then moves lower] and a depressed pharmaceutical sector. The DJIA and S&P 500  move lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.3 percent. The forecast bias was changed yesterday to a neutral position;  the forecast now indicates caution with a neutral bias.

10/7/04 Thursday 4:47 pm ET- Indices give-up 1 percent Thursday amid oil pressures, pharmaceutical sector problems, and ahead of the mother of all economical data points-  the payroll report. This report will give fresh data on jobs created- could be a market mover. Meanwhile today, the DJIA and NASDAQ end lower by 1.1 percent, the S&P lower by 1 percent.  |  The forecast now indicates caution with a neutral bias. The bias was changed yesterday.  

 

10/6/04 Wednesday-

10/6/04 Wednesday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10/6/04 Wednesday 10:46 am ET- Market meanders early Wednesday and holds close to unchanged. No economical data for investors to mull today, but tomorrow and Friday fresh data on jobless initial claims and nonfarm payroll will give some direction to traders. Midmorning, the DJIA and S&P 500 are slightly higher by less than 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ is lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias;  bias is subject to change.

10/6/04 Wednesday 3:58 pm ET- Forecast Alert: The pre-close models indicate a bias change to neutral, detail to come.

10/6/04 Wednesday 5:37 pm ET- The forecast bias was changed to neutral before the close Wednesday on improving stock market conditions. Read the log...

10/6/04 Wednesday 5:57 pm ET- Stocks end positive Wednesday as the price of oil continues its advance and ahead of fresh economical data Thursday and Friday. The DJIA closed with a gain of 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 was up by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ was higher on the day by 0.8 percent.  |  The forecast bias was upgraded before the close today to a neutral on penetration of resistance.  |  The forecast now indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

 

10/5/04 Tuesday-

10/5/04 Tuesday 12:53 am ET- This evenings model run indicated no change to the forecast. The bias indicator continues at the threshold of going neutral but with Monday's market [the major indices] performance, there wasn't enough conviction- investors ran the market up [rally] but it didn't hold- Sentiment could be slipping. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias and is still subject to change.

10/5/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral open.

10/5/04 Tuesday 10:57 am ET- Oil takes-off again and is headed towards $51 bbl as the market cools off and hangs close to the red line. The DJIA is off by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 is near unchanged, the NASDAQ is near unchanged but positive by 0.1 percent. Last evenings model run indicated no forecast bias change, but did show the bias at the neutral threshold. Meantime, the forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.

10/5/04 Tuesday 5:08 pm ET- Stocks end mixed amid more oil pricing power;  oil continues trending higher with no sign of reversing. Market performance is anemic, kind-of like the economical environment. Traders look forward to initial claims and nonfarm data coming up Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, the DJIA lost 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged, and the NASDAQ was higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. Models look for a bias change when a firm direction can be established- right now, we have an anemic market. No change is expected this evening.  

 

10/4/04 Monday-

10/4/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a positive open- forecast is subject to change.

10/4/04 Monday 11:26 am ET- Stock market opens positive Monday as oil retreats to just below $50 bbl. The DJIA is higher by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ posts a 1 percent gain.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias;  The bias is subject to change today.

10/4/04 Monday 5:19 pm ET- Text lost on server error. |  Afternoon forecast models did not trigger. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias;  the bias is subject to change.  

 

10/2/04 Weekend-

10/2/04 Saturday 9:46 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot in a near neutral position with the boundaries. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is negative. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

10/3/04 Sunday 10:32 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a negative bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

10/1/04 Friday-

10/1/04 Friday 9:23 am ET- Look for a positive open. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias- the bias is subject to change today.

10/1/04 Friday 10:59 am ET- Stocks rally Friday morning amid mostly good economical data, oil retreating, and first debate concluded with no surprises- net benefit for stocks. The DJIA surging 1 percent, S&P well into positive territory with a 1.3 percent gain, and the NASDAQ closing in on 2 percent.   |  The forecast, just changed days ago, is subject to change- afternoon model run could indicate a bias positive change. The forecast remains at caution.

10/1/04 Friday 4:47 pm ET- Opening day of the fourth-quarter sees a rally in stocks on a day that oil closes above $50 bbl. The Dow Jones 30 makes up for yesterdays Merck woes and the NASDAQ is fired up- can it last is the question. That question will be answered next week, as today's performance is impressive but suspicious. With that said, the indices put in a great day with the DJIA gaining 1.1 percent, the S&P up by 1.5 percent, and the NASDAQ surges 2.4 percent. Models will run this evening to determine any forecast change;  the first trade day of the quarter requires special analysis. The forecast indicates caution and, for now, the bias is set to negative but could change.

10/1/04 Friday 11:40 pm ET- The bias was not changed this evening. The forecast group notes: "We elected not to change the bias yet, as one of the Barometer rules is to take support-resistance into account while deciding on any change to the forecast. In addition, we want to clear the volatile period associated with quarter-end and the beginning of the new quarter... forecast notes...  

 

9/30/04 Thursday-

9/30/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open on Merck news.

9/30/04 Thursday 10:45 am ET- Merck's Vioxx sets the tone for the Dow, in early trade, as the company orders a voluntary withdrawal of its arthritis drug- stock sells off 25 percent. NASDAQ slightly positive amid unexpected jobless claims data. The DJIA is lower by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 off by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The market forecast indicates caution with a negative bias.

9/30/04 Thursday 5:06 pm ET- The averages closed Thursday mixed as the Dow Jones Industrial 30 index underperformed the other indexes on Merck's withdrawal of Vioxx;  Merck stock ended 27 percent lower. The DJIA lost 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 was nearly unchanged in the session, the NASDAQ was positive by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias.  

 

9/29/04 Wednesday-

9/29/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

9/29/04 Wednesday 11:03 am ET- Market indices opened mixed Wednesday morning amid a revised GDP that shows goods and services rose 3.3 [annual rate] percent for the 2nd. quarter. Oil continues to flirt with $50 bbl, but has trended lower this morning. NASDAQ takes off with a midmorning 1 percent gain, the Dow and S&P 500 slightly higher by 0.1 percent.  |  The Market Barometer forecast indicates caution with a revised bias of negative- The negative bias means there is a higher risk of the indices to end negatively.

9/29/04 Wednesday 5:06 pm ET- Another positive day for the averages as the 3rd. quarter nears the end.  Surprise GDP data and the IMF projects 2004 global growth of 5% but says there is a slowdown- IMF downward revised global growth to 4.3% for 2005. Oil backs off $50 bbl. The DJIA closed up by 0.6 percent, the S&P up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias. No changed is expected until we get past 3rd. quarter trading.  

 

9/28/04 Tuesday-

9/28/04 Tuesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

9/28/04 Tuesday 10:36 am ET- Stocks [major indexes] move into positive territory early but since have drifted lower on consumer confidence data;  data shows an unexpected decline for September. Oil hangs around $50 bbl and is subject to continuing its climb, further indicating a possible serious oil problem brewing. The DJIA and S&P 500 are slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ flat.  |  The bias was changed last evening to negative from neutral, as the chance of further declines are likely. The forecast now indicates caution with a negative bias. This means the indices [stock market] can go in either direction- positive or negative, but chances are higher for the indices to move lower from current positions.

9/28/04 Tuesday 4:51 pm ET- The popular averages close up amid a sour consumer sentiment report, oil closing at a record high, and end-of-quarter shopping;  S&P gains back all that was lost yesterday. The DJIA ended higher by 0.9 percent, the S&P up by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ gained 1/2 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast, changed last night, now indicates caution with a negative bias.  

 

9/27/04 Monday-

9/27/04 Monday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

9/27/04 Monday 10:40 am ET- Stocks under pressure Monday as oil continues to advance to $50 bbl. The Barometer-plot on the Leading Indicator chart shows a downward break from the January 23rd top. The break from resistance occurred because of the negative market environment Wednesday and Thursday and a more or less neutral day Friday. This is important, as it indicates the retest of this resistance area failing. Next couple of days of market performance will be key- there is a slight chance that sentiment could turnaround positive, but it's unlikely. The Barometer bias-model is indicating a negative threshold, meaning, that the bias is near going negative [forecast change]. The bias leads the forecast, this means the forecast could be close to changing to negative. Meanwhile, the forecast continues to indicate caution.

9/27/04 Monday 4:56 pm ET- Price of oil is within striking distance of $50 bbl. Oil continues to hold investors focus, and keeps the market negative. Fresh economical data this week will confirm fears of a slowdown or reverse sentiment back to a more positive outlook- for now, it looks grim. Unless economical data can show a pickup [the economy], there could be further weakness ahead. Not only will economical data get traders focus, but the IMF statement and Presidential debate could also influence investing strategies. Meanwhile, the DJIA and S&P 500 close lower by 0.6 percent and the NASDAQ was lower by 1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution and is subject to change. Any change this evening will be posted around 11:00 pm ET.

9/27/04 Monday 10:01 pm ET- The forecast bias is being set to negative- details to come.

9/27/04 Monday 11:36 pm ET- Forecast alert;  The bias has changed to negative from neutral;  significant events could cause a worsening market environment... more...  

 

9/25/04 Weekend-

9/25/04 Saturday 10:10 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot crossing below the boundaries. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

9/26/04 Sunday 11:00 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

9/24/04 Friday-

9/24/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

9/24/04 Friday 10:46 am ET- Market off to a slow start with the averages holding above unchanged in morning trade. More disappointing economical data and a lack of good news sees a directionless market with losses on the week well above 1 percent. Ivan makes another landfall and is expected to travel through Southeast Texas with no damage to oil infrastructure;  moderate rain amounts are expected. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

9/24/04 Friday 4:50 pm ET- Market ends Friday slow and in neutral;  NASDAQ ended 0.4 percent lower. Not much in way of news or market-moving economical data to give investors direction;  no reason to go in either direction ahead of major economical data next week. The market forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change. Any forecast change with this evenings model run will be posted by midday tomorrow.  

 

9/23/04 Thursday-

9/23/04 Thursday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

9/23/04 Thursday 10:49 am ET- Indices are mixed midmorning Thursday amid higher initial jobless claims and oil slightly lower, now below $48 bbl. The DJIA is lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.2 percent, but the NASDAQ, in positive territory, with a 0.2 percent gain.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/23/04 Thursday 4:58 pm ET- Dow 30 and S&P 500 end the day lower;  NASDAQ ends nearly unchanged. Ivan accounts for loss of jobs reported in the initial jobless claims data and for oil interruption;  the storm is still out there churning off the Louisiana Texas coast, threatening again.  The DJIA lost 0.7 percent, the S&P lost 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ ended flat.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias. Forecast is subject to change.

9/23/04 Thursday 10:58 pm ET- This evenings forecast models have completed and indicate no change to the forecast. The bias indicator is near the negative threshold, one more day of a negative market most likely will set the bias indicator to negative. Tomorrow's market could be an important day for indicating short term direction. There is model evidence that suggests Friday's market could end neutral, indices near flat for the day. Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Friday.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

9/22/04 Wednesday-

9/22/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a negative open.

9/22/04 Wednesday 11:44 am ET- Stocks get slammed at the start Wednesday amid negative corporate news and a report that oil inventories are a lot worse than expected due to Ivan;  Oil is above $47. bbl. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are off over one percent in midmorning trade.  |  The forecast continues at caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

9/22/04 Wednesday 4:52 pm ET- Oil is back in the news with its latest run for $50. bbl. Corporate [outlook] news causes the indices to tank on Wednesday helped by the price of oil. The major indices continue to test Barometer resistance that has proved to be difficult to penetrate. Such a long test [resistance] could prove to be negative for the market. The DJIA lost 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 lost 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ lost nearly 2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias- the forecast is subject to change.  

 

9/21/04 Tuesday-

9/21/04 Tuesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

9/21/04 Tuesday 11:25 am ET- Stocks get off to a slow start and hug the unchanged line while investors wait on the Fed decision to raise rate.  |  The DJIA is positive by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The Market Barometer forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias. The bias is subject to change.

9/21/04 Tuesday 3:07 pm ET- The Fed raises interest rate to 1-3/4 percent and leaves room to hike more... Market takes it in stride.

9/21/04 Tuesday 5:07 pm ET- Market jumps this afternoon amid rate hike and housing-starts data. A rather tame market does react positively, but modestly at best. Oil still is a concern and the presidential election could be the next focus for traders. The DJIA closed higher by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ closed up 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast, not changed in a while, continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change with tomorrows market.  

 

9/20/04 Monday-

9/20/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

9/20/04 Monday 10:50 am ET- Stocks get off to a poor start Monday but midmorning sees the indices recovering some of the losses. Investors anticipate a rate hike off 25 basis points tomorrow when the Federal Reserve FOMC meets. Even though the market is somewhat negative this morning, Market Barometer leadership stocks model indicate a good chance the market will turnaround and end positive. The DJIA is lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ turned positive with a 0.3 percent gain.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/20/04 Monday 4:57 pm ET- Market indexes end lower Monday on oil breaking above $46 bbl and ahead of the FOMC meeting on rates tomorrow. The DJIA lost 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 was lower by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ nearly unchanged with a slight loss of 0.1 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

9/18/04 Weekend-

9/18/04 Saturday 9:51 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot crossing the boundaries as they move higher. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

9/19/04 Sunday 10:25 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

9/17/04 Friday-

9/17/04 Friday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open- could turn mixed after the open.

9/17/04 Friday 11:00 am ET- Midmorning, the popular averages spike upward amid Fords bullish 3rd. quarter and full-year earnings outlook. Oil continues to bounce between $43-44 bbl, and two more storms are churning in the Caribbean and Atlantic. We have had several rallies this week that go nowhere- see if this one can stay together. The DJIA was higher by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ, coming from negative territory, was up by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. Bias is subject to change.

9/17/04 Friday 5:10 pm ET- Market rallies on Fords surprise bullish 3rd. quarter and full-year earnings outlook this morning. The indices trended lower in afternoon trade but hangs-on for a positive close. The DOW closed up by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was up by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ closed up by 0.3 percent.   |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.  

 

9/16/04 Thursday-

9/16/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Indices could turn mixed after the open.

9/16/04 Thursday 11:53 am ET- Stocks in positive territory Thursday morning amid Ivan making landfall and tame CPI data;  jobless initial claims rose 16,000. The DJIA and the S&P 500 are higher by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ up 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to a bias change.

9/16/04 Thursday 4:56 pm ET- Dow and S&P 500 end flat after nice trend higher this morning;  NASDAQ maintains most of its gains amid mixed economical data and Ivan.  |  The DJIA ends near unchanged with a 0.1 percent gain, the S&P 500 ended higher by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ outperformed by a 0.4 percent gain.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. No change is expected this evening.  

 

9/15/04 Wednesday-

9/15/04 Wednesday 12:45 am ET- Market Barometer models indicate caution for the open this morning. Hurricane Ivan [news] could cause traders to react negatively depending on the impact the storm has...   |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

9/15/04 Wednesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

9/15/04 Wednesday 11:02 am ET- Major averages move lower Wednesday morning on uncertainty. Major concern is Ivan and the damage it could cause depending on where it makes landfall. Another concern is whether the economy is continuing to slow or will rebound later this year. The DJIA and S&P 500 are lower by 0.7 percent, the NASDAQ is lower by 0.9 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The forecast is subject to change.

9/15/04 Wednesday 4:50 pm ET- Market negative all day amid Ivan uncertainty and economical slow-patch. The DJIA lost 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 was off by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1 percent.  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- the forecast is subject to change.  

 

9/14/04 Tuesday-

9/14/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

9/14/04 Tuesday 10:55 am ET- Oil continues its track higher on concerns of Hurricane Ivan;  Ivan is continuing its track into the Gulf of Mexico. Economical data released this morning suggests consumers are slowing spending and the stock market responds in kind with sluggish performance. The DJIA and S&P are slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ is in positive territory by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias. Caution means the market could go either way, the neutral bias means no direction has been identified.

9/14/04 Tuesday 5:04 pm ET- Market ends slightly higher as traders continue to look for leadership. McDonald's tried, as it increased its dividend by a substantial amount;  stocks rallied on the news and sent the averages higher, only to give-up, as reality took over. The averages and DJIA were able to close just above unchanged, the S&P 500 closed up 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ ended higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

9/13/04 Monday-

9/13/04 Monday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

9/13/04 Monday 10:31 am ET- Dow and S&P 500 get off to a slow start Monday;  NASDAQ swings right into action and is posting 0.7 percent gain;  DJIA and S&P 500 are near neutral at 0.1 to 0.2 percent higher. Oil edges higher amid hurricane Ivan, as it continues a westward track into the Gulf of Mexico.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/13/04 Monday 5:03 pm ET- NASDAQ continues its advance while DJIA and S&P 500 end the day next to unchanged. Hurricane Ivan moves closer to the Gulf of Mexico as oil moves higher and workers move out [evacuation].  The DJIA and S&P nearly unchanged within 0.1 percent of neutral, while the tech heavy NASDAQ was closed nearly 1 percent higher.  |  The stock market forecast continues at caution and the bias is set to neutral-  no change is expected this evening.  

 

9/11/04 Weekend-

9/11/04 Saturday 10:27 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot crossing the boundaries as they move higher. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

9/11/04 Saturday 11:56 am ET- People remember- 911...

9/12/04 Sunday 10:17 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

9/10/04 Friday-

9/10/04 Friday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

9/10/04 Friday 10:41 am ET- Market starts out mixed after a good reading from the PPI but a surprise warning by Alcoa (AA). Investors continue to try an evaluate mixed economical and corporate news to judge the direction of the economy. With a good reading on inflation (PPI report) but a warning from Alcoa for the 3rd. quarter, investors turn the market mixed with the DJIA lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 unchanged, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/10/04 Friday 5:00 pm ET- DOW makes a comeback Friday afternoon, while NASDAQ and S&P 500 spot nice gains for the day. Dow overcomes Alcoa warning amid oil price drop back to [near] support levels. The DJIA closes with a slight gain of 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ outperformed with 1.3 percent gain.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias;  forecast is subject to change but not expected this evening.  

 

9/9/04 Thursday-

9/9/04 Thursday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Indices could turn mixed in early trade.

9/9/04 Thursday 10:50 am ET- Indices turn mixed in late morning trade ahead of the PPI report scheduled for release tomorrow morning;  this morning, initial first time claims sunk by 44,000, according to the Department of Labor. The DJIA was lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ higher by 0.3 percent, and the S&P 500 was unchanged.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to show caution with a neutral bias.

9/9/04 Thursday 5:10 pm ET- Major market indexes close Thursday mixed;  tech stocks hike the NASDAQ, the DJIA and S&P end near neutral for the day. Oil spikes above $44 bbl, as Gulf of Mexico oil rigs eye a major hurricane. All important PPI out tomorrow morning could reinforce direction of the market. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- no change is expected this evening.  

 

9/8/04 Wednesday-

9/8/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Chance of a mixed to positive start after the open.

9/8/04 Wednesday 11:24 am ET- Stock indices are mixed midday Wednesday looking for direction amid Greenspan testimony before the House. In his prepared speech, Greenspan said the economy has gained "some traction" helped by the consumer and manufacturing sector.  The DJIA and S&P 500 are slightly lower by 0.1 percent, while the NASDAQ is slightly higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

9/8/04 Wednesday 4:47 pm ET- Stocks start the day mixed and end negative while Fed chief Alan Greenspan says the economy is regaining traction. Investors await more fresh economical data, starting with jobless initial claims tomorrow and PPI on Friday.  Meanwhile, the Dow Jones 30 ended lower by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ was lower by 0.4 percent, and the S&P 500 was lower by 1/2 percent.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias and is subject to change, although most likely not tonight.  

 

9/7/04 Tuesday-

9/7/04 Tuesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a positive open.

9/7/04 Tuesday 10:50 am ET- Off the highs of the morning, the popular averages continue in positive territory as most investors are back on the job, capping a slow summer of trade. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.4 percent, the DJIA and NASDAQ higher by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/7/04 Tuesday 4:57 pm ET- Oil moves lower- stock market sentiment moves higher- stocks put in a positive day*  amid Intel outlook concerns. The DJIA and NASDAQ gain 0.8 percent, and the S&P 500 ended higher by 0.7 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. Forecast is subject to change.  *last 10 trade days saw 5-positive, 3-neutral, and 2-negative.    

 

9/4/04 Weekend- holiday

9/4/04 Saturday 9:51 am ET- corrected- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Tuesday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot crossing the boundaries as they move higher. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot. The market forecast indicates caution. The forecast bias is neutral. New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

9/5/04 Sunday 10:19 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Tuesday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.

9/6/04 Monday 9:57 am ET- U.S. markets closed for Labor Day, Monday September 6, 2004.  

 

9/3/04 Friday-

9/3/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

9/3/04 Friday 10:49 am ET- Intel mid-quarter update sends NASDAQ lower and nonfarm jobs creation helps offset losses on the broader market. The DJIA and S&P 500 are within 0.1 percent of unchanged, while the NASDAQ is much lower by over 1 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast was not changed last evening and continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/3/04 Friday 5:34 pm ET- Market updates will be delayed this evening because of a server failure just after the close. None of the services on the website are affected.

9/3/04 Friday 6:09 pm ET- Market indices slide Friday on Intel business outlook, the nonfarm payroll report this morning helped limit losses on the broader market- NASDAQ was hammered. The DJIA lost 0.3 percent, the S&P 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ much lower by 1.6 percent.  |  The forecast was not changed last evening and continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

9/2/04 Thursday-

9/2/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

9/2/04 Thursday 11:09 am ET- Market shrugs off mixed economical data and looks forward to Intel mid-quarter update and the end of the GOP convention;  nonfarm payroll Friday will also be a key market driver. Meanwhile in late morning trade Thursday the DJIA and S&P higher by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ up by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/2/04 Thursday 4:57 pm ET- Market rallies ahead of President Bush at the RNC convention tonight and the nonfarm payroll report out Friday morning;  job creation is expected to be a good number, anything less could cause a sell off. The DJIA and NASDAQ ended the day with a 1.2 percent gain, the S&P 1.1 percent gain.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The forecast is subject to change.

9/2/04 Thursday 6:28 pm ET- President Bush speech tonight at the GOP convention could provide a lift in trading Friday [continuation of the late day rally Thursday] especially if the nonfarm payroll report tomorrow morning meets or beats expectations. Watch for any signal from the speech [tonight at 10:00 pm ET] for a clue to the payroll creation number. Barometer models will be held up tonight as the speech by the President needs to be factored in. Any change to the forecast would be posted well before the open Friday. The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

 

9/1/04 Wednesday-

9/1/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral open. Indices could turn mixed.

9/1/04 Wednesday 11:13 am ET- Manufacturing in August [ISM PMI 59%] continues expanding for the 15th. month of the economical recovery. Stock indices advance midmorning Wednesday with the DJIA up by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

9/1/04 Wednesday 5:10 pm ET- NASDAQ wins the day [up 0.7%] on Intel hopes, oil headed back up, DJIA and S&P close near unchanged. Probably more of the same Thursday, unless initial claims data is way off the mark. Friday could be the big day as traders factor in the convection and nonfarm payroll. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

8/31/04 Tuesday-

8/31/04 Tuesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral to possibly mixed open.

8/31/04 Tuesday 10:51 am ET- The major indices open slightly positive and hang close to unchanged through midmorning amid data that shows consumer confidence falling in August. The DJIA and S&P 500 are lower by 0.1 percent;  the NASDAQ is off by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution.

8/31/04 Tuesday 4:56 pm ET- Market posts a late afternoon comeback after sinking Tuesday morning on disappointing economical data. End of month trading saw the Dow Jones Ind. 30 and the S&P 500 advance 1/2 percent, while the NASDAQ [still concerns over Intel] ended a little higher by 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.  

 

8/30/04 Monday-

8/30/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/30/04 Monday 10:54 am ET- Indices sink lower Monday amid Republican National Convention and mixed economical data. Investors weary over any possible problem with the convention;  trading environment could become positive when convention has ended or nears the end- also this is a very slow point of the year and low volume can cause volatility. The DJIA is off by 0.2 percent, the S&P lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ has lost 1.2 percent.  |  The forecast, changed last Wednesday, indicates caution with a neutral/ cautionary bias.

8/30/04 Monday 5:27 pm ET- Stocks move lower on low volume;  oil continues sliding;  GOP RNC convention gets underway.  U.S. stock market ends at the lows of the session, with the Dow Jones Ind. 30 off by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 off by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ ended lower by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast, changed last Wednesday afternoon, indicates caution with a neutral bias.  A caution forecast with a neutral bias indicates nearly equal days of alternating positive/negative sentiment-  up one day, down the next-  kind of market. This market sentiment could last until uncertainty is removed. It is possible, even probable, for the market to sell off [capitulation] before any meaningful major move higher.  

 

8/28/04 Weekend-

8/28/04 Saturday 9:59 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer-plot crossing the boundaries as they move higher.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast indicates caution.   |  The forecast bias is neutral.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

8/29/04 Sunday 10:22 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

8/27/04 Friday-

8/27/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/27/04 Friday 11:07 am ET- Stocks open higher Friday amid better than expected GDP (2.8 percent) growth but a lot lower than the first reading of 4.5 percent.  |  The DJIA and S&P 500 are higher by 0.2 percent and the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias.

8/27/04 Friday 4:57 pm ET- A good solid positive day sees the averages close modestly higher;  NASDAQ closes with a 1/2 percent gain.  Advancing issues swamp decliners by 2-to-1 (1.9:1) margin-  ahead of convention week and more important economical data.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias;  the forecast was changed from negative Wednesday afternoon.  

 

8/26/04 Thursday-

8/26/04 Thursday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/26/04 Thursday 12:04 pm ET- Weak economical data, weak oil, weak stocks midday Thursday as investors prepare for fresh data next week and the GOP convention;  it all starts actually tomorrow with a preview of GDP. Today, market is uninspired with a slight loss in the Dow and S&P 500 (off by 0.1 percent), while the NASDAQ is lower by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast was changed yesterday afternoon before the close and now reads caution with a neutral bias. The caution forecast means the market is likely to be up one day, down the next. The bias, now at neutral, will move [positive or negative] to indicate the direction of the forecast when conditions dictate.

8/26/04 Thursday 4:56 pm ET- Indices meander the day looking for direction amid unexpected hike in initial jobless claims and lower oil price. The DJIA and S&P end nearly unchanged while the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast, changed yesterday afternoon, indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

 

8/25/04 Wednesday-

8/25/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

8/25/04 Wednesday 11:45 am ET- The stock market indices hang close to the unchanged line amid falling oil price and mixed economical picture. At midday, the DJIA and S&P 500 were just under the unchanged line, while NASDAQ was just north of unchanged.  |  The forecast continues to indicate a negative environment with a neutral bias.

8/25/04 Wednesday 3:48 pm ET- The forecast has changed to caution.

8/25/04 Wednesday 4:58 pm ET- Stocks get a boost while oil gets hammered. The  economic picture is mixed, a summer slowdown, but traders bet 2005 will be a better environment;  buyers cautiously look forward to 2005 and see better times ahead. The DJIA and S&P 500 end with a 0.8 percent gain, while the NASDAQ outperforms by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast was changed prior to the close and now indicates caution with a neutral bias...  

 

8/24/04 Tuesday-

8/24/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/24/04 Tuesday 10:49 am ET- Indices open positive but trend lower as the morning drags on. At midmorning, the DJIA was still positive with a 0.3 percent gain, the S&P was flat, and the NASDAQ with a mild loss of 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show negative with a neutral bias;  forecast is subject to change.

8/24/04 Tuesday 4:59 pm ET- Oil slides, stocks flat on a slow day in the stock market. The Dow Jones Ind. 30 ends up 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ end flat.  |  The forecast calls for a negative market environment biased by neutral- this means the market could be moderating from a negative environment. With important economical data this week and next [initial claims, preliminary GDP, ISM] we could see volatility on each of the key reports when they are issued.  

 

8/23/04 Monday-

8/23/04 Monday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/23/04 Monday 11:01 am ET- Market starts the week in slowmo as traders and investors look for news-  something to move on. The DJIA is near unchanged, the S&P 500 is up by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ is higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

8/23/04 Monday 4:53 pm ET- The major indexes closed Monday mixed with no economical data to trade on. The DJIA closed lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 off by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ nearly unchanged for the session.  |  The forecast continues to show negative with a neutral bias- no change in the forecast is expected this evening. The neutral bias means, the forecast (currently negative) is leaning towards neutral (biased). If the market were to improve,  the forecast would change to neutral.  

 

8/21/04 Weekend-

8/21/04 Saturday 11:04 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries generally trending lower.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate negative.   |  The forecast bias is neutral.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

8/22/04 Sunday 10:54 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models continue to indicate negative with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.

 

8/20/04 Friday-

8/20/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/20/04 Friday 2:05 pm ET- With two hours to go, stocks continue in positive territory as oil trends lower after nearly hitting $50 bbl. The DJIA and S&P trend higher by 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ up by 0.8 percent.  |  The forecast indicates negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias;  forecast is subject to change.

8/20/04 Friday 4:46 pm ET- Stocks move up, oil moved lower as the indices post gains for the week but still well off the mark from a-year ago. The DJIA and S&P 500 ended Friday higher by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ ended higher by 1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates negative with a neutral bias and is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted by midday Saturday.

 

8/19/04 Thursday-

8/19/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/19/04 Thursday 10:46 am ET- Stocks get off to a depressed start as reflected by the popular averages while the prices of oil continues its march higher. The Dow Jones 30 Ind. moves lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 is off by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ leads the group by 0.6 percent. The forecast was not changed last night as forecasters noted that the market would be up against resistance today.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias. The forecast continues to be subject to change.

8/19/04 Thursday 5:05 pm ET- Google does great first day public (100.33 +15.33 +18%), market not that lucky (indices down 0.4 - 0.6%), oil now closed the $48 bbl gap.  |  The forecast, unchanged last night, continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias. Forecast change not expected this evening.  

 

8/18/04 Wednesday-

8/18/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/18/04 Wednesday 12:18 pm ET- Indices opened lower on continued oil concerns, but [indices] moves into positive territory midmorning, and now are moving sideways with the DJIA positive by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 up by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.9 percent.  |  The Barometer forecast continues to indicate a negative environment with a neutral bias. The forecast is subject to change with apparent improving market conditions.

8/18/04 Wednesday 5:07 pm ET- Market discounts oil-  good sign, indices rally. Continuing Mondays rally, traders are bidding stocks higher as they now are ignoring the price of oil and getting ready for Google to go public tomorrow or Friday. The DJIA ends higher by 1.1 percent, the S&P higher by 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ outperforms with a 2 percent gain on the day.  |  The forecast indicates negative with a neutral bias;  the forecast is subject to change this evening. Any change to the forecast will be posted on the site later this evening- normally around 11:00 pm ET.

8/18/04 Wednesday 11:28 pm ET- Forecast models indicate no change to the forecast. Forecasters indicate resistance for tomorrows market.  

 

8/17/04 Tuesday-

8/17/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/17/04 Tuesday 11:01 am ET corrected- Price of oil dips early this morning, but since has bounced back and is again above 46 bbl (46.30 bbl) sending stocks lower [from the highs] , as the Dow 30 and S&P 500 reporting 0.2 percent gain, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.8 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias- forecast is subject to change;  the models are monitoring today's market data to confirm [or not] yesterdays rally.

8/17/04 Tuesday 5:04 pm ET- Popular averages tack on gains to extend Mondays rally but well off the highs of the morning on oil concerns;  oil continues higher, passing $46. bbl after a morning dip. The Dow Jones Ind. 30 and S&P 500 closed slightly higher by 0.2 percent;  NASDAQ held its gains to close up 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show mostly negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias. The forecast is subject to change but not expected this evening.  

 

8/16/04 Monday-

8/16/04 Monday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open, could turn mixed.

8/16/04 Monday 10:55 am ET- Stocks takeoff as oil moves lower amid short-term oversold condition. Investors bid stocks higher after 5 [Barometer] negative days in past 10 sessions, with the major indices reporting 1 percent or better. The DJIA and S&P 500 are higher by 1.1 percent;  the NASDAQ is up by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate a negative environment with a neutral/ cautionary bias [improving conditions]. The forecast is subject to change.

8/16/04 Monday 5:05 pm ET- Stock market gets off to a great start but doesn't add a lot during the session. With the price of oil lower and no terrorism over the weekend-  plus a short-term oversold condition, the major indices rallied early in the day to end near the highs, with the DJIA reporting a 1.3 percent gain, the S&P 500 higher by 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ ended up by 1.5 percent.  |  The forecast indicates a mostly negative environment [obviously today is the exception] with a neutral/ cautionary bias. The forecast is subject to change, Tuesday's session could be a key if we are at the end of this mostly negative environment- stay tuned.  

 

8/14/04 Saturday-

8/14/04 Saturday 10:12 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries trending lower.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate negative.   |  The forecast bias is neutral.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

8/15/04 Sunday 10:54 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market* forecast models continue to indicate negative with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

8/13/04 Friday-

8/13/04 Friday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/13/04 Friday 12:23 pm ET- Major indexes turn mixed, midday Friday, with the Dow Jones Ind. 30 slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 nearly unchanged at + 0.02 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.1 percent.  |  The market Barometer forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias.

8/13/04 Friday 4:54 pm ET- Slow day sees the averages close near the unchanged-mark, as investors don't see value yet to bid stocks higher. The DJIA closed higher by 0.1 percent, the S&P up by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ closed positive by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show a mostly negative market environment going forward with a neutral bias.  

 

8/12/04 Thursday-

8/12/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/12/04 Thursday 10:50 am ET- Stocks continue lower Thursday with more ammunition for investors that the slowdown is real, especially for tech companies. At midmorning, the DJIA is lower by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 down by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias- bias is subject to change.

8/12/04 Thursday 5:01 pm ET- Stocks take another dive amid more earnings warnings and of course oil beating a path to $50 bbl, took buyers right out of the picture, as the DJIA and S&P 500 lost 1.2 percent, while the NASDAQ lost another 1.7 percent (over 3 percent in two days).  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias. The bias is subject to change.  

 

8/11/04 Wednesday-

8/11/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/11/04 Wednesday 11:41 am ET- Market moves lower Wednesday morning amid cautious outlook and rising inventory from Cisco Systems (CSCO).  |  Off the worst levels of the morning, the Dow Jones Ind. 30 is lower by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 is lower by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 2 percent.  |  The forecast continues at negative with a neutral bias- the bias awaits model data to determine possible market direction from current levels.

8/11/04 Wednesday 5:12 pm ET- NASDAQ tumbles;  DJIA and S&P end slightly lower and it's all blamed on Cisco Systems outlook and inventory buildup. The NASDAQ ended lower by 1.5 percent, the Dow closed slightly off by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 off by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.  

 

8/10/04 Tuesday-

8/10/04 Tuesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/10/04 Tuesday 12:30 pm ET- The indices continue nearly at their best levels midday in advance of the Fed rate hike announcement at 2:15 PM this afternoon. The DJIA and the S&P 500 are higher by 0.7 percent;  the NASDAQ, outperforming by 1 percent.  |  The market forecast is at negative with a neutral bias;  the forecast and bias are subject to change.

8/10/04 Tuesday 4:45 pm ET- The Federal Reserve FOMC raised the Fed. funds target [rate] by 25 basis points, as expected. Stocks rally in last 2 hours of trading to end with the DJIA and S&P higher by 1.3 percent, while the NASDAQ outperformed with nearly a 2 percent gain. Even though the market rallied today, sentiment needs to carry over to Wednesday's trading. Therefore, the forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias. The forecast is subject to change in Wednesday's session.  

 

8/9/04 Monday-

8/9/04 Monday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/9/04 Monday 11:17 am ET- Market starts the week anticipating the rate hike Tuesday as the indices are in positive territory but holding close to neutral. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

8/9/04 Monday 4:50 pm ET- Major indices hang close to unchanged and close mixed as everybody waits on the Fed. Tuesday afternoon the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to continue the rate-hike-cycle with verbiage that is expected to emphasize that the economy is experiencing a summer slowdown and that it is expected [the economy- corporate profits] to continue expanding in 2005. Meantime, the forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias. The neutral bias is positioned to tic positive if the market likes the Feds move and verbiage tomorrow.  

 

8/7/04 Weekend-

8/7/04 Saturday 10:59 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries trending lower.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate negative.   |  The forecast bias is neutral.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

8/8/04 Sunday 10:29 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The stock market* forecast models continue to indicate negative with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

8/6/04 Friday-

8/6/04 Friday 9:26 am ET- Look for a negative start this morning as traders react negative to weak jobs data and higher oil prices.

8/6/04 Friday 1:37 pm ET- With a little over two hours to go, the indices hang close to the lows of the session with the DOW 30 and S&P 500 off by nearly 1 percent, the NASDAQ is lower by 1.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

8/6/04 Friday 4:43 pm ET- Market continues lower as investors try to understand where's the recovery going- is this a summer slowdown, or more? A jobs-creation shock Friday morning sent stock lower as the Dow Jones 30 index closed off by 1.5 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent;  NASDAQ was hammered with a 2.5 percent loss.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.  

 

8/5/04 Thursday-

8/5/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

8/5/04 Thursday 10:48 am ET- Stocks move lower Thursday as sentiment continues to slip. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are just under unchanged at 0.1 percent.  |  You guessed it, the forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

8/5/04 Thursday 5:01 pm ET- Where's the beef buyers? Volume increases this afternoon on the sell-side, as the averages take a midsummer's dump [normal this time of year for volatility to increase]. Oil concerns remain as the DJIA and S&P dive 1.6 percent, while NASDAQ went south by 1.8 percent. Friday could be interesting with nonfarm payroll on tap, early. The forecast continues to indicate negative with neutral bias.    

 

8/4/04 Wednesday-

8/4/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/4/04 Wednesday 11:12 am ET- Stock market opens lower on continued oil concerns;  price hangs close to $44 bbl. The DJIA is lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ are off by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias.

8/4/04 Wednesday 4:56 pm ET- Oil dips 3% and ends well below $44 bbl as investors take that as a good thing and drive stocks up to end nearly unchanged for the day. Stocks in negative territory most of the day but recover to end near unchanged with the Dow Jones 30 up by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ also lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues at negative with a neutral bias.  

 

8/3/04 Tuesday-

8/3/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/3/04 Tuesday 11:03 am ET- Major indices move lower late morning trade on high price of oil and disappointing economical data. The DJIA and S&P 500 are off by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ lower by 0.8 percent. The forecast was not changed last night because forecasters noted the high degree of influence the terror alert had on trading.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias and is subject to change.

8/3/04 Tuesday 4:46 pm ET- Back to fundamentals. Stocks move lower Tuesday in response to high oil prices and slowdown in consumer spending. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent, the NASDAQ hit with a 1.7 percent loss.   |  The market forecast continues to show a negative environment with a neutral bias. This means the market is improving slightly, but right now negativism rules.  

 

8/2/04 Monday-

8/2/04 Monday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

8/2/04 Monday 10:50 am ET- Stocks take terror warning in stride with little action in either direction. The DJIA, sneaking into positive territory, with a .04 percent gain, the S&P just off by 0.1 percent, while the NASDAQ is continuing lower by 0.6 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias. The Barometer models indicate [thus far] no change to the forecast at this time as the latest terror news continues to filter through the markets.

8/2/04 Monday 4:59 pm ET- Traders discount much of the terror warning in favor of good earnings report from Procter and Gamble and positive manufacturing reports. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 closed higher by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ higher by 0.3 percent.  |  The Barometer stock market forecast continues at negative with a neutral bias- the forecast is subject to change this evening.

8/2/04 Monday 10:32 pm ET- The evening model run has been completed and the indication is no forecast change at this time. The forecast notes indicate another session (Tuesday's market) is need to further filter the terror alert news. The forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias and is subject to change.  

 

7/31/04 Weekend-

7/31/04 Saturday 10:36 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move generally lower.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate negative.   |  The forecast bias is at now neutral.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

8/1/04 Sunday 11:25 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The stock-market* forecast models continue to indicate negative with a neutral bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.

8/1/04 Sunday 9:57 pm ET- Mayor Bloomberg to open trading Monday morning at the NYSE amid new terror warning that specifically targets some financial institutions, including the NYSE. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate negative with a neutral/ cautionary bias for the open.   

 

7/30/04 Friday-

7/30/04 Friday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Indices could turn mixed after the open.

7/30/04 Friday 12:40 pm ET- DJIA and S&P 500 flat, while NASDAQ advances 1/2 percent midday Friday amid weak economical data and higher oil prices.  |  The Barometer market forecast indicates negative with a neutral bias;  the bias was upgraded last evening on [somewhat] improving sentiment.

7/30/04 Friday 4:48 pm ET- Stocks meander Friday- investors not running stocks higher on a weekend. Oil closes-in on $44 a barrel, weak economical data- traders settle for a neutral market. The DJIA and S&P nearly unchanged for the day (up 0.1 percent), NASDAQ close up 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast, changed last night, now indicates negative but with an upgrade to the bias-  to neutral.  

 

7/29/04 Thursday-

7/29/04 Thursday 9:25 am ET- Look for a positive open.

7/29/04 Thursday 11:01 am ET- Major indexes in positive territory Thursday after good earnings reports and less oil uncertainty, as the DJIA is near unchanged with a 0.2 percent advance, the S&P 500 is higher by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ is near 1 percent higher.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate a negative environment but the bias is subject to change, especially if today's session continues mostly positive.  |  The Barometer leading indicator continues at neutral.

7/29/04 Thursday 4:57 pm ET- Stocks and indices advance on less oil fear and good corporate earnings Thursday as the DJIA ended nearly unchanged, while the S&P 500 rose by 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ outperformed by 1.2 percent.  |  The forecast indicates negative with a negative bias;  the bias is subject to change this evening;  any change to the forecast will be posted by 11:00 pm ET.

7/29/04 Thursday 11:12 pm ET- The Barometer bias was changed to neutral Thursday evening on improving sentiment...  

 

7/28/04 Wednesday-

7/28/04 Wednesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

7/28/04 Wednesday 10:56 am ET- Stock indices move lower after brief stay in positive territory on concerns of price of oil [price hits $43] as the market discounts earnings and economical data.  |  The DJIA is lower by 1/2 percent, the S&P by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1.6 percent.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate negative with a negative bias.

7/28/04 Wednesday 4:57 pm ET- Dow 30 and S&P 500 make comeback [in negative territory most of the session] to close higher, while the NASDAQ ends lower;  traders and investors concerned over the price of oil and corporate profits.  |  The DJIA closed up by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 unchanged, while NASDAQ ended off by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show negative but model metrics are improving- no forecast change is expected this evening.  

 

7/27/04 Tuesday-

7/27/04 Tuesday 9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/27/04 Tuesday 10:30 am ET- Stocks take on a positive look in early trade Tuesday amid mixed earnings but an upbeat consumer sentiment report. The DJIA is posting a positive advance of 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is higher by 0.8 percent- indices are just off the highs of the morning.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate a negative environment.  |  The Barometer leading indicator continues to indicate neutral- neutral is its home position as it waits to trigger.

7/27/04 Tuesday 4:43 pm ET- Oversold rally [technical rally] sends the major indices higher, helped by consumer sentiment and earnings. To turn this market around, several more days of positive trading is needed. The market Barometer forecast indicates a negative environment but is subject to change in tomorrows market.  |  The Barometer leading indicator is at neutral [home position] awaiting to trigger.  

 

7/26/04 Monday-

7/26/04 Monday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/26/04 Monday 12:26 pm ET- Indices continue trending lower midday Monday with the Dow 30 lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 down by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate negative.  

7/26/04 Monday 4:55 pm ET- Investors continue taking profits as the indices stay in negative territory most of the day.  Off the lows of session, the Dow closed Monday unchanged, the S&P lost 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate a negative environment.  

 

7/24/04 Weekend-

7/24/04 Saturday 11:01 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Monday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move lower.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate negative.   |  The forecast bias is at negative.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

7/25/04 Sunday 11:05 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The stock-market* forecast models continue to indicate negative with a negative bias going into Monday's open.  *- Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

7/23/04 Friday-

7/23/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open for the indices.

7/23/04 Friday 12:10 pm ET- Selling continues as companies reporting earnings have mixed guidance, causing fear of a slowing of the economy and profits. At midday, the DJIA and S&P were lower by about 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ, leading the decline, was off by 1.4 percent.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to show negative with a negative bias.

7/23/04 Friday 4:59 pm ET- Buyers go home early Friday and leave the sellers to continue taking profits. The DJIA lost another 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 lost 1 percent, and NASDAQ dives for a 2 percent loss.  |  The forecast continues to indicate a negative environment going forward;  the bias also  indicates negative. The only good thing about sell-offs is at some point the market will turn positive- that's why you watch the bias- when it turns from negative to neutral, a change could be on the way.  

 

7/22/04 Thursday-

7/22/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a negative open.

7/22/04 Thursday 11:00 am ET- Stocks struggle lower as investors gear-up for Microsoft's outlook and earnings later today after the close. The DJIA is lower by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.3 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to indicate negative with a negative bias. The negative forecast means the stock market major indices are expected to generally move lower.

7/22/04 Thursday 5:04 pm ET- Market indices moved lower Thursday morning continuing Wednesday's selling but reversed direction and slowly trended higher to close positive. The DJIA closed nearly unchanged, while the S&P closed up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ recovering some of yesterdays loss, closed higher by 0.8 percent. Reversal in the making? We'll know Friday. Meanwhile, the Barometer forecast continues to indicate a negative market environment, with a negative bias.  

 

7/21/04 Wednesday-

7/21/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/21/04 Wednesday 11:39 am ET- Market gets off to a stellar start Wednesday on Greenspan remarks and Microsoft's onetime payout. Trending lower from the morning high, DJIA is up by 0.6 percent, the S&P up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is unchanged.  |  The forecast continues to indicate a negative market environment going forward. Always remember that surprise news can make the market volatile [like the Microsoft news] and the Barometer cannot predict how trading will react;  surprise news has to filter through the market before the Barometer models can assimilate the reaction.

7/21/04 Wednesday 4:55 pm ET- Market hits a soft patch-  to the tune of 1 to 2 percent sell off-  Wednesday amid Microsoft payout deal and Greenspan testimony. Traders and investors discount the good news in favor of taking profits and building cash for later. The DJIA lost 1 percent, the S&P lost 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ hit hard with a 2.2 percent loss.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate negative with a negative bias.  

 

7/20/04 Tuesday-

7/20/04 Tuesday 9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/20/04 Tuesday 10:58 am ET- Dow and S&P hold close to unchanged, NASDAQ ahead by 0.6 percent, while investors wait to see what Chairman Alan Greenspan has to say during his semiannual report on monetary policy to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the U.S. Senate today at 2:30 pm ET. The market forecast, changed over the weekend, indicates negative with a negative bias.

7/20/04 Tuesday 5:00 pm ET- Market adds to gains Tuesday on Chairman Greenspan's report to the U.S. Senate this afternoon. Even though the market reacted positive today, there needs to be follow-through Wednesday. Microsoft announced a $3 onetime dividend per share [after the close] that could spark more buying in the morning. Meanwhile, the DJIA ended with a 1/2 percent gain, the S&P with a 0.7 percent gain, and the outperforming NASDAQ ended 1.8 percent higher. We could be at a turning point for the market, a much needed spark is needed to get buyers moving again.  The forecast continues to indicate a negative market environment, caution should be used during the open Wednesday.  

 

7/19/04 Monday-

7/19/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

7/19/04 Monday 10:42 am ET- Stock market major indices start the week by keeping close to unchanged in midmorning trade. With no economical data today and no major market-moving news, stocks meander. The DJIA is slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P higher by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is higher by 0.1 percent. | The forecast, changed over the weekend, now indicates negative with a negative bias. This means the indices are expected to generally do worse this week than in the past two weeks.

7/19/04 Monday 5:10 pm ET- Investors hold on and await chief Greenspan to maybe give some hint to where we [economy- rate hike cycle] go from here. Maybe Alan Greenspan can get the market moving- don't look for economical data to move anything, as there is very little data this week;  so if sentiment is not real positive now- we could see a lower market until Jobless clams on Thursday. The DJIA was off 1/2 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ were within 0.04 percent of unchanged.  |  The forecast was changed over the weekend to indicate negative with a negative bias.  

 

7/17/04 Weekend-

7/17/04 Saturday 9:50 am ET- Forecast  reschedule: Forecast modeling process has not been completed. It was scheduled to be completed by midday today. Modeling will now be completed by midday Sunday. If there is a change to the forecast, it will be posted by midday Sunday.  |  The stock-market* forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. *- Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.

7/18/04 Sunday 1:05 pm ET- The forecast has changed to negative on continued weakness in the market and generally weak-to-mixed business outlook... more...  

 

7/16/04 Friday-

7/16/04 Friday 9:29 am ET- Look for a positive open.

7/16/04 Friday 11:35 am ET- Market turns mixed in late morning trade Friday, amid good economical data as traders and investors continue to cap buying;  still no good reason to bid stocks much higher. The DJIA was higher by 0.2 percent, S&P 500 up by 0.1 percent, NASDAQ lower by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.

7/16/04 Friday 4:46 pm ET- Another negative day;  stocks started the week in neutral and ended the last three days lower. The DJIA lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P off by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ hit hard with a 1.6 percent loss.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias and is subject to change- any change this evening will be posted by midday Saturday.  

 

7/15/04 Thursday-

7/15/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/15/04 Thursday 10:52 am ET- Stocks get off to a timid start as traders wait on IBM guidance/earnings after the close and CPI data Friday. The DJIA and S&P are unchanged, the NASDAQ is higher by 0.2 percent.  |  The market forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.

7/15/04 Thursday 4:54 pm ET- Stock market major indexes end lower Thursday on continued worries over-  well-  everything! Until something comes along and moves sentiment positive, we can continue to expect more of the same- can IBM do it? Depends on what they say in the conference call that is now underway. The DJIA and S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent, NASDAQ lost 0.1 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution and is subject to change- any change will be posted here at about 11:00 pm ET.  

 

7/14/04 Wednesday-

7/14/04 Wednesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a negative open. Intel's outlook mixed with inventory buildup; Intel could be a market mover; market movers have a major influence on markets and Barometer models track and identify them.

7/14/04 Wednesday 11:02 am ET- Stocks reverse direction and head positive after a negative start- Intel continues well into negative territory.  The Dow and S&P are higher by 0.2 percent and the NASDAQ is unchanged.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The forecast is subject to change.

7/14/04 Wednesday 5:05 pm ET- Stock market major indices end lower Wednesday amid Intel's (INTC) outlook and on a slowdown in retail sales. The Dow Jones industrial index end lower by 0.4 percent, S&P 500 was off by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ lost nearly 1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias- the forecast is subject to change this evening. Any change to the forecast will be posted by 11:00 pm ET.  

 

7/13/04 Tuesday-

7/13/04 Tuesday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/13/04 Tuesday 10:50 am ET- Indices once again hang close to unchanged as traders await Intel's earnings and guidance after the close today. The major indexes are slightly positive with the Dow and S&P by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ by 0.2 percent.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The forecast is subject to change.

7/13/04 Tuesday 4:59 pm ET- Dow and S&P end near unchanged- NASDAQ ends lower on low volume.  Indices hang close to unchanged most of the day awaiting a spark from somewhere. Intel could be that spark as it reported earnings, basically inline with projections, but lowers guidance. Stock is under pressure in after hours trading.  Intel could be a market mover in Wednesday's trading;  models will monitor its progress.  The Dow and S&P ended slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.  

 

7/12/04 Monday-

7/12/04 Monday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

7/12/04 Monday 10:42 am ET- Stocks get off on the wrong foot Monday as the major indices track lower in midmorning trading.  The Barometer bias was changed to negative Thursday, meaning the market (Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) is expected to generally under perform compared to past weeks in an otherwise cautionary environment.   |  The DJIA was off by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 is lower by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 1.3 percent. |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias. The forecast is subject to change.

7/12/04 Monday 5:03 pm ET- Market makes a comeback but leaves the NASDAQ in negative territory. Albeit on low volume, the Dow and S&P end the session slightly above the unchanged-line, while NASDAQ did improve, it ended lower, hit by negative talk and downgrades. The Dow ends higher by 0.2 percent, the S&P ended up by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ended with 1/2 percent loss.  |  The forecast, changed last Thursday, indicates caution with a negative bias. The forecast is subject to further downgrades.  

 

7/10/04 Weekend-

7/10/04 Saturday 10:29 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move lower.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   |  The forecast bias is negative.  |  New visitors can get more information on the Markets page.

7/11/04 Sunday 9:51 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The stock market* forecast models indicate caution with a negative bias going into Monday's open.  |  *- Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

7/9/04 Friday-

7/9/04 Friday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

7/9/04 Friday 10:58 am ET- The major indices get off to a positive start Friday after several days of negative performance. Pre-market futures were positive going into GE's earnings announcement- GE is being monitored for inclusion to Market-Movers [market movers are watched by the Barometer models as a factor in forecasting]. The DJIA was higher by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 was positive by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast bias was changed to negative last night because of a continued lack of positive sentiment by traders.  |  The forecast now indicates caution with a negative bias.

7/9/04 Friday 4:44 pm ET- Market major averages started out positive and meandered the day-away. GE posted good news [models are evaluating its influence on the market] but appears it lacked market leadership, as the Barometer measures things.  The DJIA ended positive by 0.4 percent, the S&P ended up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ ended higher by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a negative bias- bias was changed late last night.  

 

7/8/04 Thursday-

7/8/04 Thursday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Indices could turn positive after the open.

7/8/04 Thursday 10:55 am ET- Anther downdraft for the market early Thursday as investors lack buying conviction. The DJIA (Dow 30) is off the mark by 0.2 percent, the S&P is lower by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ is leading stock lower by 0.7 percent.   |  The forecast indicates caution;   the bias is neutral.

7/8/04 Thursday 5:05 pm ET- Nonstop news coverage of  Lay, Stewart, and others must have captivated buyers;  sellers continue dumping stocks, as the bad news keeps rolling-in. The Dow Jones Industrial average ended lower by 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 ended lower by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ was slammed by 1.6 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution and is subject to change this evening. Any change to the forecast will be posted by around 11:00 pm ET this evening.

7/8/04 Thursday 11:41 pm ET- The forecast bias was changed to negative from neutral this evening because of the continued degradation of market sentiment...   

 

7/7/04 Wednesday-

7/7/04 Wednesday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

7/7/04 Wednesday 11:45 am ET- Indices dip from morning highs, trending towards the unchanged line, as traders and investors look for fresh data to move on. The dow, S&P, and NASDAQ are within 0.1 percent of unchanged.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias. The forecast is subject to change later this evening.

7/7/04 Wednesday 4:48 pm ET- U.S. stock market popular averages end nearly unchanged, as traders look for guidance in upcoming earnings. The DJIA and S&P end 0.2 percent higher- NASDAQ ended 0.1 percent higher.  |  The market forecast indicates caution. The bias was change over the weekend to neutral. No change to the forecast is expected tonight.  

 

7/6/04 Tuesday-

7/6/04 Tuesday 9:29 am ET- Look for a negative open.

7/6/04 Tuesday 10:53 am ET- Stocks get off to a tough start Tuesday on continued weak economical data and rising oil price. The Dow 30 is lower by 0.2 percent, The S&P is down by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 1.5 percent.  |  The forecast bias was changed Saturday to caution from positive because of the increase perceived risk of a slower economical recovery as noted by the latest weak ISM services report.   |  The forecast now reads caution with a neutral bias.

7/6/04 Tuesday 4:46 pm ET- Stocks end lower;  tech's get hammered Tuesday on concerns over oil, negative preannouncements, and weak economical data. The Dow Jones Ind. average ended lower by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 ended lower by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ over 2 percent loss.  |  The forecast bias was changed over the weekend;  the forecast now indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

 

7/3/04 Holiday- weekend-

7/3/04 Saturday 10:08 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for Tuesdays open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries starting to move sideways.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   |  The forecast bias is at positive, but is subject to change.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

7/3/04 Saturday 12:16 pm ET- The bias was changed to neutral/ cautionary because the market could move in either direction on news that seems to be mixed of late. "On the other hand, traders could look at the weak economical data as an economical recovery that may be stalling, thus capping earnings and somewhat high valuations of equities...

7/4/04 Sunday 9:52 am ET- The bias was changed, Saturday morning, to caution.  |  The stock market* forecast now indicates caution with a neutral bias going into Tuesday's open. *- Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

7/2/04 Friday-

7/2/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open; job creation was well off estimates.

7/2/04 Friday 11:49 am ET- With a long weekend ahead and very weak payroll data, investors yawn at buying stocks. The Dow is lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 down by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is lower by 1/2 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive Barometer bias.

7/2/04 Friday 4:40 pm ET- Negative performance today as traders are spooked by weak economical data and the fact that no one wants to add much to their positions ahead of a long holiday weekend;  no reason to push the market higher. The Dow Jones Industrial average lost 1/2 percent, S&P lost 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast continues at caution with a positive bias. The bias is subject to change tonight. Any change to the forecast will be posted on the site by midday Saturday.  

 

7/1/04 Thursday-

7/1/04 Thursday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

7/1/04 Thursday 11:02 am ET- Indices start the 3rd. quarter lower on recovery concerns- weak economical data Thursday morning leads investors to sell amid concerns over the strength of the economical recovery. Another big report Friday is the nonfarm payroll report [scheduled for release 8:30 am ET] which will give a better look at the expansion of companies. The Dow Jones 30 is lower by 0.8 percent, the S&P lower by 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1.4 percent.  |  The forecast, unchanged last night, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. The bias is subject to change.

7/1/04 Thursday 4:52 pm ET- Stocks take a hit amid profit warnings, weak economical data, and downgrades. Tomorrows nonfarm jobs report will be very important to traders. If the data comes in unexpected, look for volatility. Meanwhile, the major indices close 1 percent lower with the Dow 30 and S&P 500 closing down by 1 percent, the NASDAQ closed 1.6 percent lower.  |  The market forecast, unchanged last night, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. The bias is subject to change this evening.  

 

6/30/04 Wednesday-

6/30/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Trading likely to be tame ahead of rate announcement later this afternoon.

6/30/04 Wednesday 11:04 am ET- Indices continue trending lower amid weak Chicago PMI data and the highly anticipated rate hike, as well as the accompanying FOMC statement. The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ are within 0.1 percent of flat after a modest positive start this morning.  |  The Barometer market forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias.

6/30/04 Wednesday 3:01 pm ET- Fed raises Fed funds rate target to 1.25 percent, adding on 25 basis points Wednesday afternoon. Market indices react positive initially with the NASDAQ outperforming the Dow and S&P. At 2:46 pm ET, the Dow was slightly higher by 0.1 percent, the S&P higher by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.3 percent. Reaction by traders could come in last hour of trade  and/or  Thursday-Friday, when more key economical data is released.

6/30/04 Wednesday 4:51 pm ET- Stocks end Wednesday positive amid a rate hike by the Federal Reserve FOMC;  Fed funds rate target now at 1.25%, discount rate at 2.25%. There was a slight reaction by traders but it appears they are waiting on more economical data and earnings before moving the direction of the market off of unchanged- where we have been for a long period of time. The broader market, measured by advance/decline, sees overwhelming 2:1 ratio of advancing issues over declining issues. The Dow disappoints with a 0.2 percent gain, the S&P higher by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ advanced by 0.6 percent.  |  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted by 11:00 pm ET this evening.  

 

6/29/04 Tuesday-

6/29/04 Tuesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

6/29/04 Tuesday 10:36 am ET- Investors position for tomorrows Federal Reserve FOMC rate hike- expecting a 1/4 percent increase of the Fed funds rate target. The indices off the highs of the morning, with the DJIA higher by 0.4 percent, the S&P higher by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias.

6/29/04 Tuesday 4:49 pm ET- Investors anticipate a rate hike Wednesday but cautious about what the Fed may say. No major violence in Iraq;  all are good enough signs for buyers to bid stocks a little higher Tuesday. The Dow Jones index closed higher by 1/2 percent, The S&P higher by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.8 percent.  |  The market forecast indicates caution ahead of Wednesdays rate-hike meeting.

6/29/04 Tuesday 11:20 pm ET- As expected, there is no change to the forecast. Model data was reviewed and market condition was analyzed to try an anticipate reaction to tomorrows rate hike. The charts indicate [channel chart] a propensity for the market to move higher but with the rate hike pending, FOMC rate-hike statement pending, economical data to be released, earnings and guidance statements to be analyzed, it is very difficult to determine direction. Therefore, the forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias going into the rate hike.  |  For more information, see the forecast group notes.  

 

6/28/04 Monday-

6/28/04 Monday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open on news that the coalition has turned power over to Iraq this morning.

6/28/04 Monday 10:37 am ET- Traders and investors act positive to the surprise move by the coalition [earlier today] as they transfer sovereignty to Iraq. The indices are near the highs of the morning, with the  DJIA higher by 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.4 percent.  |  The forecast, unchanged over the weekend, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change this evening.

6/28/04 Monday 4:54 pm ET- So much for "sovereignty" power rally. Onto the Fed- see if they can get investors to bid stocks up. Maybe today's action is a sneak preview of coming attractions. On Wall Street there is a tactic called "buy the rumor, sell the news". Could it be we have priced-in all of the news [Iraq, the Fed] we have been waiting on? If so we could see a sell-off when the Fed raises the rate Wednesday. Meanwhile, today, the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent. The NASDAQ closed with a 0.3 percent loss.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. No change is expected this evening.  

 

6/26/04 Weekend-

6/26/04 Saturday 10:53 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the Barometer for the past 2 1/2 years.  |The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   |  The forecast bias is at positive.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

6/27/04 Sunday 10:54 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The stock-market* forecast models continue to indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open. *- Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices.  

 

6/25/04 Friday-

6/25/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly negative open.

6/25/04 Friday 11:09 am ET- Indices advance Friday but well of the highs of the morning on a slower GDP growth report by the Government- traders like the news as it dampens the risk of robust rate hike by the Fed. The Dow 30 higher by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias.

6/25/04 Friday 5:04 pm ET- TGIF. The Dow and S&P trend lower from positive territory, to close at the lows of the session; NASDAQ ends with healthy gains. On to Fed week and hopefully a more positive active environment. The Dow 30 ended with 0.7 percent loss, the S&P ended lower by 0.4 percent, but the NASDAQ closed higher by 1/2 percent.  No change to the forecast is expected prior to Monday's open. Forecast continues at caution.  

 

6/24/04 Thursday-

6/24/04 Thursday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open- possibly mixed start today.

6/24/04 Thursday 10:38 am ET- Major averages move little in early trade Thursday amid tame economical data and ahead of next weeks big day. The DOW and S&P are slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ is unchanged.  |  The forecast, unchanged last night, continues to show caution with a positive bias.  |  Forecaster note indicated that there was no evidence that yesterday's rally would carry over to today's trading.

6/24/04 Thursday 4:52 pm ET- Popular averages trend lower Thursday afternoon, after a lackluster morning, amid escalating attacks in Iraq and mixed economical data. The Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ all ended lower by 0.3 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias- positive bias means sentiment leans slightly positive. No forecast change is expected this evening.  

 

6/23/04 Wednesday-

6/23/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open- chance of mixed start.

6/23/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open- chance of mixed start. (duplicate)

6/23/04 Wednesday 10:43 am ET- Stocks, again, start out weak as the countdown continues to the end of the month. With very little to move the indices, we can continue to expect listless trading until June 30th- barring geopolitical news and unexpected economical data. The DJIA and S&P off by 0.2 percent and the NASDAQ unchanged.  |  The stock market forecast indicates caution with a slight positive bias.

6/23/04 Wednesday 4:47 pm ET- IPO's get traders in the mood for buying, as a late day rally gets underway sending the Dow 30 up by 0.8 percent, the S&P up by 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ outperformed by 1.4 percent. Early bird buyers think economical data tomorrow and Friday will be in-line. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Models will run this evening; early data indicates a very slight chance of a forecast change tonight. Any change will be posted by 11:00 pm ET this evening.

6/23/04 Wednesday 10:29 pm ET- Evening models have completed and indicate no change to the forecast. Forecaster notes indicate no evidence that this afternoons rally will continue on Thursday, although it could, it could also move lower depending on economical data [jobless initial claims]. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

6/22/04 Tuesday-

6/22/04 Tuesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

6/22/04 Tuesday 10:30 am ET- Indices start off mixed Tuesday as we continue treading water waiting on June 30th when the Fed will hike rates, Iraqi handover takes place and the end to Q2. Traders and investors wont commit too much to buying or selling until these issues are resolved. Look for more neutral trading unless geopolitical events takes the focus. The Dow and S&P are lower slightly by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is unchanged.  |  The forecast, unchanged last night, continues to indicate caution with a slight positive bias.

6/22/04 Tuesday 5:32 pm ET- Major averages move higher Tuesday amid all the uncertainty of what June 30th might bring. Will the Fed raise rates by 50 basis points- market is looking for 25. How will the handover go in Iraq? What does the terrorists have planed for June 30th? Not to mention traders and investors positioning for the new quarter. A lot going on and some key economical data could turn the heat-up in the days to come. The Dow ended up by 0.2 percent, the S&P by 0.4 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ by 1 percent.  |  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

6/21/04 Monday-

6/21/04 Monday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly positive start.

6/21/04 Monday 11:25 am ET- Good month to take a vacation- still can- you have until June 30th. to get back. Market continues its directionless meandering. With no relative news or earnings, investors and traders are napping when it comes to the business of the day. The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ are near unchanged Monday morning.  |  The forecast, believe it or not, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6/21/04 Monday 4:46 pm ET- Indices dive in afternoon trade on light volume as the march to June 30th. continues. The Dow Jones index closed lower by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 closed lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ close down by 0.6 percent.  |  The market forecast still indicates caution.  |  The bias, now positive, is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted on the home page by around 11:00 pm ET this evening.  

 

6/19/04 Weekend-

6/19/04 Saturday 9:51 am ET- Forecast Reiteration:  There was no change to the forecast last evening. The stock market (DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ) forecast models continue to indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open. However, the forecast is subject to change.

6/20/04 Sunday 11:07 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you. Just click the links below. All charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  |  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move higher.  |  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  |   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   |  The forecast bias is at positive.  |  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.  

 

6/18/04 Friday-

6/18/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral open. Indices could turn positive after the open.

6/18/04 Friday 10:38 am ET- Stocks start off lower but turn positive in early trade Friday with the DJIA and S&P indicating a 1/2 percent gain, and the NASDAQ positive by 0.7 percent.  |  The forecast, unchanged last evening, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6/18/04 Friday 4:44 pm ET- Market ends near neutral Friday but with positive gains as the Dow Jones 30 ended up 0.4 percent, the S&P up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.2 percent.  |  The forecast, stuck, continues to show caution with a positive bias. The bias is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted by midday Saturday.  

 

6/17/04 Thursday-

6/17/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral start.

6/17/04 Thursday 10:35 am ET- Stocks sag Thursday as investors look to June 30th. to get direction. The Dow is off by 0.4 percent, the S&P is down 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ is lower by 1 percent.  |  The market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.  |  The Market Barometer bias is subject to change today.

6/17/04 Thursday 5:23 pm ET- Dow and S&P close just under flat, while the NASDAQ lost 0.7 percent as the market awaits direction ahead of June 30 Fed meeting and Iraq handover.  |  The market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias but the bias is subject to change. Evening model run is at 9:30 pm ET and any change will be posted by around 11:00 pm.  

 

6/16/04 Wednesday-

6/16/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

6/16/04 Wednesday 11:16 am ET- U.S. Stock market is neutral in midmorning, with the DJIA off by 0.1 percent, the S&P is up 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ is unchanged.  |  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a slight advantage (bias) to the positive side.

6/16/04 Wednesday 4:55 pm ET- Not a lot of action in today's market, as reflected by the major averages close near the unchanged mark. The Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices close near unchanged, within 0.1 percent amid the rate hike debate- of how much and when- will the Fed raise rates.  |  All this makes for a neutral plot on the Barometer charts;  the forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias;  positive bias means the market has a better chance of closing positive than negative on any given day while the forecast indicates caution.  

 

6/15/04 Tuesday-

6/15/04 Tuesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a positive open on less inflation worries; CPI near expectations; traders see that as holding the Fed back a little.

6/15/04 Tuesday 10:51 am ET- Stock market starts Tuesday on a positive note amid a little less inflation worries and investors see a little buying opportunity from Monday's selling. The Dow 30 is higher by 0.7 percent, the S&P positive by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ leads by 1.3 percent.  |  The market forecast, unchanged yesterday, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6/15/04 Tuesday 4:41 pm ET- Market indices, collectively, end well off the highs of the day on relatively good CPI data and inspired by the Fed's risk management approach to inflation. The dow ended higher by 0.4 percent, the S&P by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1.3 percent. The stock market forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias. No change is expected this evening.  

 

6/14/04 Monday-

6/14/04 Monday 9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

6/14/04 Monday 10:23 am ET- Stocks get off to a lower start Monday amid rate hike talk. Last hour, or so, of trade today could give us a preview of how trading will go for the next couple of weeks. At midmorning the DOW is off by 0.5 percent, the S&P off by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ is lower by 0.8 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6/14/04 Monday 4:48 pm ET- Stocks get slammed on growing concern of a 1/2 percent hike in the interest rate target on June 30. A 1/4 percent hike was widely expected, but now the Fed is beating war drums, trying to prepare the market for a steeper hike. The DJIA lost 0.7 percent, the S&P off by 1 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ lost 1.5 percent.     The market forecast, unchanged over the long weekend, continues to indicate caution and is subject to change.  

 

6/11/04 Holiday - Weekend-

6/11/04 Friday 10:01 am ET- Markets closed today to observe National Day of Mourning for President Reagan.

6/12/04 Saturday 10:01 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help your forecasting needs by clicking the links below. All Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving higher.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   ##  The forecast bias is positive.  ##  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

6/13/04 Sunday 10:41 am ET- Forecast reiteration: With generally positive results from the stock market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) last week, the stock market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open. The forecast is subject to change.  

 

6/10/04 Thursday-

6/10/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

6/10/04 Thursday 10:31 am ET- The U.S. stock market major indices advance Thursday ahead of a long weekend. In early trade, the DJIA and S&P are up by 0.4 percent and the NASDAQ is higher by 1/2 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

6/10/04 Thursday 4:58 pm ET- Indices break trend to advance in last hour of trade;  the DJIA ends with a 0.4 percent gain, the S&P and NASDAQ end with a 1/2 percent gain.  ##  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias and is subject to change this evening. Any change to the forecast will be posted midday Saturday- markets will be closed Friday to observe National Day of Mourning for President Reagan.  

 

6/9/04 Wednesday-

6/9/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a negative open.

6/9/04 Wednesday 10:35 am ET- Popular market averages move lower in early trading on a continued directionless market. The Dow Jones 30 is lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is lower by 0.5 percent.  ##  The forecast, unchanged, continues to show caution with a positive bias.

6/9/04 Wednesday 4:58 pm ET- Stocks end lower Wednesday on light profit taking. With Friday's close, [in honor of President Reagan] it leaves Thursday as the last trade day of the week- with PPI delayed and jobless new claims scheduled for tomorrow, could see more selling ahead of the long weekend. The Dow closed lower by 0.6 percent, the Standard and Poor's 500 was off by 1 percent, the NASDAQ lost 1.6 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

6/8/04 Tuesday-

6/8/04 Tuesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

6/8/04 Tuesday 10:46 am ET- Stocks open lower on minor profit taking helped by the Fed saying they will stay the course, however, they will do what is required to meet policy. The DJIA was off 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are off by 0.3 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias. The forecast group, last evening, noted that the forecast was not changed because of the continued testing of the Jan 23 top.

6/8/04 Tuesday 4:54 pm ET- Stock market indices meander and end up nearly unchanged for the day amid slumping oil and gas and the Fed chief speaks out, prepares the market for rate hike. The DJIA ends positive by 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 ended up by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ was higher by 0.1 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with the tendency to move higher (positive bias). Forecast change is not expected by the forecast group this evening.  

 

6/7/04 Monday-

6/7/04 Monday 9:13 am ET- Market to observe two minutes of silence in honor of President Ronald Reagan.

6/7/04 Monday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

6/7/04 Monday 10:35 am ET- A broad-based advance for stocks on Monday challenging the Barometer "Jan 23 top" as investors and traders may have priced-in a rate hike later this month by the FOMC. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are higher by 0.8 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. The forecast is subject to change.

6/7/04 Monday 4:53 pm ET- Stock market rally closes the session at the high of the day. The Dow 30 closed positive by 1.5 percent, S&P 500 up by 1.6 percent, and the outperforming NASDAQ closes up 2.1 percent. The markets (NYSE, NASD, AMEX) will be closed Friday for President Reagan's funeral.  ##  The market forecast currently indicates caution with a positive bias. The forecast is subject to change this evening after the last model run. Any change will be posted at about 11:00 pm ET.

6/7/04 Monday 10:32 pm ET- The evening models indicate no change to the forecast. The Jan 23 top is being tested and until that test is complete the forecast will continue to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

6/5/04 Weekend-

6/5/04 Saturday 10:10 am ET- Forecast reiteration: The Barometer stock market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a positive bias going into Monday's open. The forecast is subject to change.

6/6/04 Sunday 10:28 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking the links below. All Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move higher.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   ##  The bias is positive.  ##  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.   

 

6/4/04 Friday-

6/4/04 Friday 9:28 am ET- Look for a positive open.

6/4/04 Friday 10:34 am ET- Jobs data and price of oil are key factures in higher stocks on Friday, as the Dow, off the highs of the morning, is up by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 is up by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ is higher by 1.2 percent.  With good economical data to support higher stock prices, it will be important how the market ends the day. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. The bias is subject to change.

6/4/04 Friday 4:44 pm ET- Major indexes end off the "lunch-hour" high but very much in positive territory. The DJIA ends higher by 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ ends up 0.9 percent.  ##  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. No forecast change is anticipated ahead of Monday's open.  

 

6/3/04 Thursday-

6/3/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Market could turn positive after the open.

6/3/04 Thursday 10:50 am ET- Market gets off to a negative start Thursday on economical and oil concerns. The Dow Jones 30 is off by 0.3 percent, the S&P is off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is lower by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution.  ##  The Barometer leading-indicator channel chart shows we are now testing the January 23rd. top. It is important to get through this resistance in order to keep the March 2003 rally alive. Tomorrows nonfarm payroll data could determine direction.

6/3/04 Thursday 4:48 pm ET- Stocks end lower amid investors taking strategic position ahead of Fridays nonfarm payroll report. Today's stock market weakness causes the Barometer-plot to back away from resistance that could confirm additional pullback of the indices if Fridays jobs creation report is seen as a problem with the economical recovery.  ##  The DJIA ended down by 0.7 percent, the S&P off by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ lost nearly 1.5 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

6/2/04 Wednesday-

6/2/04 Wednesday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Could turn mixed.

6/2/04 Wednesday 10:52 am ET- Stocks meander with the major indices mixed as all eyes are on jobless data tomorrow and non-farm payroll data Friday. The Dow Jones 30 is up by 0.2 percent, the S&P unchanged, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.3 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. A positive bias means that the indices are likely to end positive in a cautionary market.

6/2/04 Wednesday 4:49 pm ET- Major indexes end mixed in a market anticipating jobs data. Fresh data tomorrow and Friday that  likely will cause volatility, especially if data is unexpected. Meanwhile, Wednesday the Dow 30 ended with a 0.6 percent gain, the S&P positive by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.1 percent.   ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with the bias indicating positive.

6/2/04 Wednesday 5:56 pm ET- With jobless new claims tomorrow and job creation, non-farm payroll data Friday, the next couple of days could determine if more of a pullback is in store for the market or the continuation of the March 2003 rally. Depending how the data is perceived will depend on which way the indices go. The Barometer leading-indicator channel chart shows we are now testing the January 23rd. top. This is important to get through. Next couple of days could get volatile.  

 

6/1/04 Tuesday-

6/1/04 Tuesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

6/1/04 Tuesday 10:46 am ET- Stocks get off to a neutral start Tuesday as traders await the all important non-farm payroll report on Friday. The dow is off 0.1 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ are off 0.2 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6/1/04 Tuesday 4:38 pm ET- Stock market basically goes nowhere Tuesday as major market indices (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ) end slightly positive. Oil concerns and more terror takes center stage today. The market forecast continues to indicate caution.  

 

5/29/04 Weekend-

5/29/04 Saturday 10:48 am ET- Forecast reiteration: Sentiment appears to be improving as traders and investors go into the long holiday weekend mostly discounting the latest terror warnings. The Barometer stock market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a positive bias going into Tuesday's open. The market is closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

5/30/04 Sunday 10:10 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking these links. All Barometer charts have been updated for Tuesday's open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move higher.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   ##  The forecast bias is positive.  ##  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.

5/31/04 Monday 11:00 am ET- U.S. markets closed today for Memorial day holiday. Markets will reopen Tuesday morning.  

 

5/28/04 Friday-

5/28/04 Friday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

5/28/04 Friday 10:38 am ET- Stocks trend lower after opening mixed Friday as traders get ready for a long holiday-weekend. The DJIA and S&P 500 are off by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ off by 0.3 percent. ##   The forecast models indicated no forecast change because of heavy Barometer resistance (Jan 23 top) ahead within the next couple of days.  ##  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

5/28/04 Friday 4:44 pm ET- Major stock market indexes go sideways on Friday to end May regular session. The Dow 30 ended slightly lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ended slightly higher by 0.1 percent.  U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Memorial Day.  ##  The forecast, unchanged last evening, indicates caution with a positive bias.  

 

5/27/04 Thursday-

5/27/04 Thursday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

5/27/04 Thursday 10:56 am ET- Broad based rally Thursday on economical data and a slumping oil price. The Dow 30 is higher by 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast indicate caution.

5/27/04 Thursday 4:45 pm ET- The major averages ended higher Thursday amid good economical data and lower oil prices. The Dow Jones Ind. Averages ended with a 0.9 percent gain, the S&P 500 higher by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.4 percent.  ##  The forecast bias, changed Tuesday, indicated a continuing sentiment improvement by marketers and could indicate a forecast upgrade from caution. The last model run of the evening is at 9:30, any forecast change will be posted by 11:00 pm ET tonight.

5/27/04 Thursday 9:25 pm ET- Site Alert: Some internet servers (those that handle Internet traffic) have been experiencing problems that cause pages of some websites to be unavailable. Some dialup users of Earthlink and MSN have reported such a problem. MSN is the lead support handler of the problem and they are working to identify the cause. Not all users are affected and the problem can be intermittent. Market-Barometer site is and has been available for most users during this period of time. The first report was logged at 4:57 pm ET.

5/27/04 Thursday 10:55 pm ET- The evening model run indicates no change to the forecast. Heavy Barometer resistance lays ahead that must be penetrated before the forecast can be upgraded. The Barometer channel chart shows the 'Jan 23 top' resistance line that is critical to pass. It is the top line on the chart that represents the highest the market has been able to advance, in Barometer terminology, while in "bear territory". The stock market forecast will maintain caution with a positive bias for now.  

 

5/26/04 Wednesday-

5/26/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

5/26/04 Wednesday 10:57 am ET- Stocks open lower amid new terror concerns but have since recovered slightly to near unchanged. The DJIA off by 0.1 percent, S&P 500 and NASDAQ virtually unchanged.   ##  The forecast bias was changed last evening from caution to positive, making the market forecast read caution with a positive bias.

5/26/04 Wednesday 5:01 pm ET- Majority of stocks hold Tuesday's rally- tech heavy NASDAQ adds to gains. Market gets by unsettling news to close the Dow Jones and S&P nearly unchanged for the session- NASDAQ closes higher by 0.6 percent.  ##  The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.  

 

5/25/04 Tuesday-

5/25/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

5/25/04 Tuesday 10:33 am ET- Stocks open lower as the directionless market continues- traders await jobless claims Thursday and nonfarm payroll data next week- not to mention a slew of other economical reports in-between. The major indexes turnaround midmorning to post a slight gain, with the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ up 0.2 percent.  ##  The forecast indicates caution with a neutral/ cautionary bias. This forecast means the market can go either way (positive or negative) depending on the news of the hour.

5/25/04 Tuesday 4:52 pm ET- Relief rally Tuesday as the indices stair step higher all day amid oil concerns and a mixed economical picture- the Dow Jones 30 and S&P  end with a 1.6 percent gain, and the NASDAQ ends with 2.2 percent higher post.  ##  The market forecast, changed over the weekend, indicates caution- the forecast is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted by 11:00 pm ET this evening after the last model run.

5/25/04 Tuesday 10:53 pm ET- The evening model run indicates trader and investor sentiment continues to improve. The bias was changed to positive from caution...  

 

5/24/04 Monday-

5/24/04 Monday 9:30 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

5/24/04 Monday 11:00 am ET- Stocks open modestly higher Monday after a depressed 4-week market amid hopes that price of oil and gas can be moderated. The Dow and S&P 500, off the highs of the morning, are showing 0.4 percent gain, the NASDAQ is higher by 1 percent.  ##  The bias was changed over the weekend from negative to caution/neutral because the market models indicated a more favorable environment for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ.  ##  The forecast now indicates caution with a neutral/ cautionary bias.

5/24/04 Monday 4:51 pm ET- Stock market starts the week on a mixed note amid volatile oil price- going nearly for $42 a barrel. The Dow Jones 30 closed slightly lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 advances slightly by 0.2 percent, and the tech heavy NASDAQ closed up by 0.6 percent.  ##  The Barometer U.S. stock market forecast, changed over the weekend, indicates caution with a neutral/ cautionary bias.  

 

5/22/04 Weekend-

5/22/04 Saturday 11:54 am ET- The bias (stock market forecast) has changed to caution from negative because the Barometer model data suggests sentiment is changing to a more positive stance by traders and investors...

5/22/04 Saturday 2:14 pm ET- The stock market forecast-bias was changed to caution from negative because of improving sentiment.  ##  The U.S. stock market forecast now reads caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

5/23/04 Sunday 10:33 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking these links. All Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a close look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   ##  The forecast bias was changed to caution over the weekend.  ##  New visitors can get additional information on the Markets page.  

 

5/21/04 Friday-

5/21/04 Friday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

5/21/04 Friday 10:43 am ET- Stocks open higher Friday and hang around the unchanged mark as traders and investors get ready for the weekend. The Dow Jones 30 and NASDAQ are higher by 0.4 percent- the S&P is up by 0.3 percent.  ##  The Market Barometer forecast continues with caution, with a negative bias.

5/21/04 Friday 4:55 pm ET- U.S. stock market ends positive amid low volume in a somewhat volatile week. Continued directionless market saw Friday's close of the DJIA slightly higher with a 0.3 percent gain, the S&P up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates caution with a negative bias; the bias is subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted no later than midday Saturday.  

 

5/20/04 Thursday-

5/20/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

5/20/04 Thursday 11:41 am ET- The popular stock market indexes hang close to unchanged Thursday morning as investors watch for a direction to take hold. The DJIA and S&P 500 are positive by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ higher by 0.3 percent.   ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. This forecast stance means the market indices lean towards ending each day negatively in a cautionary market environment.

5/20/04 Thursday 4:44 pm ET- A directionless market is up and down depending on the news of the hour Thursday, as investors end the trading session nearly at the starting point- unchanged. A neutral day in the stock market saw the Dow Jones end unchanged, the S&P ended higher by 0.1 percent and the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.1 percent.   ##  No forecast change is expected this evening, as the market forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias.  

 

5/19/04 Wednesday-

5/19/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

5/19/04 Wednesday 10:50 am ET- Near the highs of the morning, the indices continue yesterday's positive advance. The Dow Jones Ind. 30 up by 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 is up by 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is up by 1.9 percent.  ##  The market forecast, unchanged, continues to indicate caution with a negative bias;  the bias is subject to change, especially if the market continues positive to the close.

5/19/04 Wednesday 4:47 pm ET- The morning rally fades as worries come back to investors Wednesday. The positive sentiment could not keep buyers bidding stocks higher as Oil and gas prices, and geopolitical fears, again take focus. The Dow Jones 30 and S&P ended down by 0.3 percent while the NASDAQ ended unchanged.  ##  The US stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias; although a forecast [bias] change is possible tonight, it's not expected.

5/19/04 Wednesday 6:00 pm ET- According to the Barometer leading indicator models, tomorrows market could be important. The leading indicator chart shows the positive boundary going sideways...  

 

5/18/04 Tuesday-

5/18/04 Tuesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

5/18/04 Tuesday 10:59 am ET- Stocks are advancing in midmorning trade with the DJIA positive by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ higher by 1.2 percent. Traders could have exhausted the sell side and could begin moving prices higher if there is no real market-moving geopolitical event. The Barometer models indicate no change to the forecast and that in itself is good news as there is no real move lower for the major indices noted in the data. Geopolitical events could cause additional selling, but it appears we could be looking at a little more positive action in the next week or so. The forecast remains at caution with a negative bias- still subject to change.

5/18/04 Tuesday 5:00 pm ET- Stock market rebounds (dow +0.6%, S&P +0.7%, NASDAQ +1.1%) amid inflation talk and renomination of Alan Greenspan to another term. It was close last night but the models suggested that it was to early to change the forecast. The model data indicated that there is a possibility that the indices could move higher from yesterday's close, and that the next couple of weeks would be more positive than what we have seen lately. Thus, we keep the forecast at caution with a negative bias, for now. Geopolitical news can force forecast changes, but if global events are toned down and fundamentals are refocused, we could see higher prices. No forecast change is expected this evening.  

 

5/17/04 Monday-

5/17/04 Monday 9:29 am ET- Look for a negative open amid oil and Iraq concerns.

5/17/04 Monday 10:49 am ET- Stocks continue the decline over price of oil and geopolitical concerns- major indexes nearly 1 percent off in midmorning trading.  ##  The forecast, unchanged over the weekend, continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The forecast is subject to change.

5/17/04 Monday 4:54 pm ET- World markets get hammered, U.S. stock market modest loss. Trouble around the glob and oil concern continues to hold stocks back- especially tech stocks. The Dow 30 and S&P lost 1.1 percent, while the NASDAQ was lower by 1.5 percent.  ##  The forecast currently indicates caution with a negative bias and is subject to change this evening. Last model run is at 9:30 pm ET and any change to the forecast will be posted at 11:00 pm.  

 

5/15/04 Weekend-

5/15/04 Saturday 10:40 am ET- Forecast reiteration: With negative results from the stock market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) this week, the stock market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a negative bias going into Monday's open. The forecast is subject to change Monday.

5/16/04 Sunday 10:54 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking these links. All Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries move lower.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   ##  The forecast bias is at negative.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.

5/16/04 Sunday 2:38 pm ET- Forecast reiteration: With negative results from the stock market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) last week, the stock market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a negative bias going into Monday's open. The forecast is subject to change.  

 

5/14/04 Friday-

5/14/04 Friday 9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open. Last evening model run did not indicate a forecast change.

5/14/04 Friday 10:39 am ET- Major indexes open lower but, at midmorning, are off the lows ahead of the weekend. The Dow Jones 30 off 0.2 percent, S&P is lower by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1.1 percent.  ##  The U.S. stock market forecast, unchanged last evening, continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

5/14/04 Friday 5:00 pm ET- Dow and S&P end unchanged- NASDAQ ends with a 1 percent loss. Dow and S&P lose 1 percent for the week, while NASDAQ lost 1/2 percent.  ##  The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias- The forecast is subject to change- any change will be posted on the home page by 11:00 pm ET this evening; last model run is at 9:30 pm.  

 

5/13/04 Thursday-

5/13/04 Thursday 9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

5/13/04 Thursday 10:51 am ET- Stocks get off on the wrong foot Thursday as selling continues. At this point, no good reason to bid stocks up. As the Barometer channel chart shows, the environment is expected to stay negative until traders and investors sentiment changes.  ##  The Dow Jones 30 is off by 1/2 percent, the S&P is off by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.2 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias. Negative bias indicates a mostly negative environment in an otherwise cautionary market.

5/13/04 Thursday 4:59 pm ET- Market ends Thursday near neutral as, it appears, no one  wants to buy or sell. The DOW ends 0.3 percent lower, S&P off by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ was unchanged.  ##  The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias- The forecast is subject to change, any change will be posted by around 11:00 pm ET this evening; last model run is at 9:30 pm.  

 

5/12/04 Wednesday-

5/12/04 Wednesday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

5/12/04 Wednesday 10:44 am ET- Investors discount Cisco and good market fundamentals for continued rate fear and the Iraq prison probe. Yesterday's positive action subsides and selling continues that takes the dow 30 and the S&P 500 lower by 1 percent- NASDAQ is off by 2 percent.  ##  The market forecast, unchanged yesterday, indicates caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.

5/12/04 Wednesday 4:46 pm ET- The popular averages (Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, NASDAQ) comes roaring back in last two hours in Wednesday's trading session to end near neutral for the day. The DOW ended positive by 0.3 percent, the S&P by 0.2 percent and the NASDAQ ended underwater by 0.3 percent.  ##  The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias- The forecast is still subject to change. Any change to the forecast will be posted by around 11:00 pm ET this evening; last model run is at 9:30 pm.  

 

5/11/04 Tuesday-

5/11/04 Tuesday 9:29 am ET- Look for a neutral to positive start.

5/11/04 Tuesday 10:40 am ET- U.S. stock market tries to recover a little ground in wake of recent selling;  the dow nudges the 10,000 mark. The dow 30 is higher by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 up by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ is leading with a 1.2 percent gain. The Barometer models, last night, indicated no change to the forecast but the 'forecast change' metrics were near thresholds. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

5/11/04 Tuesday 4:47 pm ET- A much needed advance in stocks Tuesday- key- can traders continue to bid stocks higher Wednesday. With jobless claims Thursday and CPI on Friday, Wednesday could be a neutral day barring geopolitical events- Cisco Systems is the wildcard. The djia spiked higher in the last 1/2 hour of the session and ended with a 0.3 percent gain, the S&P ended with a 0.8 percent gain, and the NASDAQ outperforms with nearly a 2 percent gain.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias- no forecast change is expected this evening.  

 

5/10/04 Monday-

5/10/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral to negative open.

5/10/04 Monday 10:51 am ET- Stocks start lower Monday morning on continued rate hike fear, fear that the Fed will raise the Fed funds interest rate target this June on inflation concerns. There is also building concern over the Iraq prison abuse probe. The dow 30, now below 10,000, is off by 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 off by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ is lower by 1.4 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.

5/10/04 Monday 4:38 pm ET- Stocks continue lower Monday but off the lows of the session as interest rates and the Iraq prison scandal gather momentum. The DJIA ended lower by 1.3 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ were off by 1.1 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast currently indicates caution with a negative bias and is subject to change. The last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET this evening and any change to the forecast will be posted at about 11:00 pm ET.

5/10/04 Monday 10:25 pm ET- There is no forecast change- the metrics from the model data are near thresholds and not FIRMLY indicating a forecast change. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. Model data suggests that there is a chance that the stock market could turn from the mostly negative stance to one that is more positive- this chance shows up as a slight possibility. Tuesday's market action could determine short/long term direction.  

 

5/8/04 Weekend-

5/8/04 Saturday 9:44 am ET- Barometer market models where run last evening and indicated no change to the forecast at this time. Data from the models that is used to change the forecast were close to thresholds, indicating a change in the near term. It would appear that further weakness in the market (dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ indices) most likely will trigger a change next week. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

5/8/04 Saturday 1:10 pm ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking the these links. All Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (Dow 30, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) show the boundaries beginning to move lower.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.   ##  The forecast bias is negative.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.

5/9/04 Sunday 10:55 am ET- Forecast reiteration: With mostly negative results from the stock market (DJIA and S&P 500 lose about 1 percent, NASDAQ near unchanged) last week, the stock market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a negative bias going into Monday's open. The forecast is subject to change Monday.  

 

5/7/04 Friday-

5/7/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a negative open on strong economical data. Rate hike in June is expected. Chance indices could recover after the start.

5/7/04 Friday 10:33 am ET- Corporate America adds 288,000 jobs in April, above expectation, that started the decline this morning but has since recovered, somewhat. The Dow 30 is off 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 is off by 0.3 percent, while the NASDAQ sports a 0.4 percent gain.  ##  The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias and is subject to change with today's market performance.

5/7/04 Friday 4:44 pm ET- Stocks end down at the lows of the day on worry that the Fed will increase the Fed funds rate target in June. The dow 30 ends 1.2 percent down, the S&P 500 is off by 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ ends lower by 1 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast currently indicates caution with a negative bias and is subject to change. The last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET this evening and any forecast change will be posted by midday Saturday.  

 

5/6/04 Thursday-

5/6/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a negative open.

5/6/04 Thursday 10:58 am ET- NASDAQ leads stocks lower as investors worry over strong payroll data Friday. Strong economical data will drive investors and traders to continue to position for a rate hike in June. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  ##  The bias, already negative, indicates a change in the forecast if the indices continue weaker. Friday's payroll data is likely to confirm the negative market or get investors to reverse sentiment if the data is weak. The market forecast is subject to change.

5/6/04 Thursday 4:37 pm ET- The popular averages end off the lows of the session to end another negative trade day with the dow 30 and S&P 500 lower by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias and is subject to change.  

 

5/5/04 Wednesday-

5/5/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed start.

5/5/04 Wednesday 10:38 am ET- Dow 30 and S&P 500 indices hang close to unchanged while the NASDAQ churns with a 0.6 percent gain in midmorning. With the Fed near ready to hike rates, traders await the payroll data out Friday to get a heads-up on if the hike will be June or later. New jobless claims could also move the market- it's out Thursday. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

5/5/04 Wednesday 4:44 pm ET- Near unchanged today, as traders are waiting on payroll data Friday but will react to jobless new claims data Thursday. Interest rate hike is on the way but will it be as near as June or as late in the year as November. Should get a reaction in the market Thursday but today the indices are neutral and the forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

5/4/04 Tuesday-

5/4/04 Tuesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a positive open on Fed day; Rates will be left unchanged. The accompanying statement will be parsed for any clues to when the Fed funds rate target will be increased.

5/4/04 Tuesday 10:34 am ET- Stocks meander while investors await the Federal Reserve FOMC to announce their latest stance on the economical recovery- will they signal a rate increase? That is the question. The indices near unchanged with the dow and S&P flat and the NASDAQ up by 0.3 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates caution with a negative Barometer bias.

5/4/04 Tuesday 5:10 pm ET- Fed is no longer patient. Rate hike could be August, November, even as close as June. It will depend on economical data such as the payroll report- how many new positions created by business. The stronger the data the worse for the market. So hold on, we have ISM services, productivity, jobless claims, and the all important payroll report- all this week. Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P end up nearly unchanged but NASDAQ turned in 0.6 percent gain.  ##  The market forecast indicates caution with a negative bias.  

 

5/3/04 Monday-

5/3/04 Monday 9:26 am ET- Look for a positive open. The market forecast bias was changed, Saturday midday, to negative.  ##  The market forecast now indicates caution with a negative bias.

5/3/04 Monday 10:41 am ET- Stock market gets off to a positive start Monday in a buying opportunity. The Dow and S&P 500 are up by 0.8 percent and the NASDAQ is advancing by 1.4 percent; a good start this morning and a weak ISM report gives some minor hope of a delayed rate hike. The Federal Reserve FOMC meets Tuesday to decide on rates but more importantly to decide on what language to use to prepare the market for the hike. With the Fed meeting Tuesday, jobless new claims data Thursday and the all important payroll data Friday- market direction most likely will be determined this week. The forecast for the stock market now indicates caution with a negative Barometer bias.

5/3/04 Monday 4:41 pm ET- Oversold condition last week brings buyers back on Monday ahead of the FOMC Tuesday meeting. The DJIA and S&P end up 0.9 percent and the NASDAQ ends with a 1 percent gain.  ##  The market forecast, changed over the weekend,  now indicates caution with a negative bias.  

 

5/1/04 Weekend-

5/1/04 Saturday 11:10 am ET- Forecast change is pending editorial: With the continued negative results from the stock market (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ) this week, the market forecast models suggest a forecast change of the bias to negative. This change is imminent and will be posted on the site within the next hour.

5/1/04 Saturday 12:10 pm ET- Market Barometer models indicate a bias change to negative because of the continued fear of an imminent rate hike soon.  ##  The forecast now reads caution with a negative bias.

5/2/04 Sunday 10:29 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking the links below. Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) show the boundaries beginning to move lower.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast indicates caution.   ##  The forecast bias was change Saturday to negative.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.  

 

4/30/04 Friday-

4/30/04 Friday 9:24 am ET- Look for a positive open.

4/30/04 Friday 10:49 am ET- Market opens positive as economical data is released  showing a continued economical recovery, albeit amid strong data indicating a little stronger recovery that tends to alert investors that the Fed could begin the rate hike process sooner. Market pulls back slightly with the NASDAQ leaving positive territory. The DJIA is up by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 is positive by 0.2 percent, but the NASDAQ loss deepens and is off by 0.6 percent. Yesterday evening model run suggested no change to the forecast. The market forecast reads caution with a neutral bias.

4/30/04 Friday 4:40 pm ET- Buyers unable to advance stocks and end April lower amid good earnings, good economical data but a heavy eye towards interest rates (the hart of the problem). The dow 30 and S&P 500 end lower by 1/2 percent as the NASDAQ ends the day off by 2 percent. The evening models will run at 9:30 and any change to the forecast will be posted midday Saturday. Meanwhile, for now, the U.S. stock market forecast indicate caution and is subject to change.  

 

4/29/04 Thursday-

4/29/04 Thursday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open; chance of mixed start.

4/29/04 Thursday 10:27 am ET- A positive pop in early trade Thursday as investors see GDP data as a positive; maybe keep the Fed at bay for the time being. The DOW positive by 0.6 percent, the S&P500 advancing by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.3 percent. The forecast was changed last evening to caution from positive because the Barometer models detected a sentiment change that could lead to a volatile market when economical data suggests stronger or weaker economy, meaning the Fed could act to raise rates sooner or later depending on quickness of the recovery. The stock market forecast now reads caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

4/29/04 Thursday 4:52 pm ET- Stocks are sold after a positive start this morning; sellers trend the indices lower throughout the day to end with moderate losses. The DOW 30 lost 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.8 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 1.6 percent. Google files for IPO- about the only good news amid mixed economical data that keeps buyers sidelined. The market forecast, changed last evening, now indicates caution and is still subject to change after the evening models have run. Any change will be posted by 11:00 pm ET.  

 

4/28/04 Wednesday-

4/28/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a negative start.

4/28/04 Wednesday 11:05 am ET- Stocks lower Wednesday in midmorning trade, on worries of a rate hike; rate hike in the Fed funds target is on the way, the question is when will Federal Reserve increase rates and by how much. Until Alan Greenspan alludes to a timeframe, the fear of a hike continues to mount. The dow 30 and S&P 500 are lower by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.9 percent. ##  The forecast indicates positive with a cautionary bias- the forecast is subject to change.

4/28/04 Wednesday 4:55 pm ET- Stocks go south on increase worries over rates and Iraq's war struggle. The pressure to sell is increasing sending higher bidding to the sidelines over the increase probability of a Fed funds rate hike that, some say, could be sooner rather than later this year. The indices trended lower all day ending [nearly] at the lows. The dow30 lost 1.3 percent, the S&P500 was lower by 1.5 percent, and the NASDAQ was off by 2.1 percent on heaver volume.  ##  The forecast now shows positive with a cautionary bias and is subject to change. The last model run is at 9:30 pm ET this evening and any change will be posted by 11:00 pm.

4/28/04 Wednesday 11:38 pm ET- The evening Barometer models have run and indicate a forecast change to caution from positive because the models suggest investors are growing more concerned that an interest rate change is nearer than first anticipated. The stock market forecast now shows caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.  

 

4/27/04 Tuesday-

4/27/04 Tuesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a positive-to-mixed open.

4/27/04 Tuesday 10:54 am ET- stocks advance Tuesday after Monday's light selling as investors gear-up for rate hike seen possibly very late 2004 or 2005. Any rally now can be seen as the last major advance until the Fed actually raises rates. Stocks may not have higher interest rates priced in, that leaves open the probability of a pullback, soon. This is where the leading-indicator comes in handy, as it looks for major swings in the market (DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ). Any change in sentiment will show up in the Barometer forecast. For now, the forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

4/27/04 Tuesday 4:34 pm ET- Stock market positive nearly all day Tuesday but trends off the highs in last two hours of trade with the major indices ending mixed; NASDAQ ends in negative territory. DJIA gains 0.3 percent, the S&P up by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ ends lower by 0.2 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias and is subject to change, although no immediate change is expected.  

 

4/26/04 Monday-

4/26/04 Monday 9:27 am ET- Look for a positive-to-mixed open.

4/26/04 Monday 10:43 am ET- Markets open positive but have trended slightly lower to near unchanged, with the DJIA off by 0.1 percent, S&P off by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.3 percent.  ##  The forecast, unchanged over the weekend, continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

4/26/04 Monday 4:43 pm ET- Negative start to the week as it appears investors are still concerned over a rate hike. The Dow ends lower by 0.3 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ off by nearly 1/2 percent.  ##  The forecast indicates positive with a cautionary bias and is subject to change;  if  there is a forecast change, it will be posted here in the snippets around 11:00 pm ET this evening, after the model run.  

 

Weekend-

4/24/04 Saturday 10:59 am ET- Forecast reiteration:  The NASDAQ turned in positive performance with over a 2 percent gain for the week. The dow and S&P ended with a very slight gain.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias going into Monday's open.

4/25/04 Sunday 11:10 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™?  Find out how we can help you by clicking the these links. All Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) show the boundaries beginning to move higher.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate positive.   ##  The forecast bias is at caution.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.

4/25/04 Sunday 1:00 pm ET- Forecast reiteration: With mostly positive results from the stock market (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ) last week, the market forecast models continue to indicate POSITIVE with a CAUTIONARY bias going into the new week.  

 

4/23/04 Friday-

4/23/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to chance of mixed start.

4/23/04 Friday 10:51 am ET- Stock indexes (DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ) get off to a mixed start Friday after earnings rally Thursday. With less a worry over a rate hike, investors refocus on earnings and business outlook.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

4/23/04 Friday 4:38 pm ET- Amid great earnings and less worry over rate hike, the NASDAQ continues its advance, while the DOW and S&P end nearly unchanged after spending the day in negative territory. The DJIA ends positive by 0.1 percent, the S&P unchanged, and the NASDAQ higher by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast going into Monday continues to show positive with a cautionary Barometer bias.  

 

4/22/04 Thursday-

4/22/04 Thursday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

4/22/04 Thursday 10:42 am ET- A null reaction by investors to the Fed, earnings, and economical data. The indices open lower then take a brief stride to positive before trending slightly lower to near unchanged at midmorning. The DJIA and S&P are in positive territory by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ higher by 0.3 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates positive with a cautionary bias.

4/22/04 Thursday 4:40 pm ET- Null the null; investors drive stocks higher after digging through earnings, deciding that no rate hike [Fed still patient] and great earnings means the recovery and profits are churning. The dow ends with a 1.4 percent gain, the S&P advances 1.5 percent, and the NASDAQ ends up 1.9 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.  

 

4/21/04 Wednesday-

4/21/04 Wednesday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

4/21/04 Wednesday 10:47 am ET- Market indices get off to a mixed start Wednesday and fluctuate the unchanged line as all eyes and ears are on the Fed chief. The question traders will try an glean from the Fed is if "patients" is still in the Fed's vocabulary. The djia is lower by 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ is higher by 0.3 percent, and the S&P is up by 0.2 percent.  ##  The forecast, subject to change, indicates positive with a cautionary bias.

4/21/04 Wednesday 5:11 pm ET- Score this a positive day as the Fed sends signal that rates will go up but probably not any time soon. The dow ends the day nearly unchanged, the NASDAQ advances by 0.9 percent, the S&P higher by 1/2 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias. The forecast is subject to change; any change will be posted after the last model run of the evening, around 11:00 pm ET.  

 

4/20/04 Tuesday-

4/20/04 Tuesday 9:27 am ET- Look for a positive start as the market prepares for the Fed chief.

4/20/04 Tuesday 10:48 am ET- Markets open in positive territory Tuesday as traders sift through earnings and await Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony before The Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate at 2:30 pm ET. The djia is up by 0.4 percent, S&P up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1/2 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to show positive with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

4/20/04 Tuesday 4:41 pm ET- Fed chief about to pave the way for interest rate hike- markets react. The fear is that a rate hike could come sooner than expected; markets are pricing in the first increase (probably .25) by August- maybe earlier. Chairman Alan Greenspan continues testimony Wednesday and will talk economy. The indices lost it in the last hour of trade to end 1 to 2 percent lower.  ##  The forecast, at this time, indicates positive with a cautionary bias but is subject to change this evening when the last models run. Any forecast change will be posted by around 11:00 pm ET this evening.

4/20/04 Tuesday 10:45 pm ET- The evening models have completed and the analysis does not indicate a forecast change at this time. However, the data does suggest that a forecast change to caution from positive could be within one trade day away. As the [channel] chart depicts, the Barometer-plot is on the positive boundary and any further negative action by the indices (collectively) could cause a change. For now, the forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias. This forecast stance (positive with caution) means the market environment still could be a positive one but caution (the bias) going forward is indicated.  

 

4/19/04 Monday-

4/19/04 Monday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

4/19/04 Monday 10:47 am ET- Stocks start the day and the week in negative territory on continued worries over a Fed rate hike that could be closer than first thought. Fed chief Alan Greenspan speech this week may give a hint on any change in Fed funds target language- are they still patient? Meanwhile, the DOW is off by 0.5 percent, the S&P is off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ slightly lower by 0.1 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

4/19/04 Monday 4:48 pm ET- Market ends mixed with the NASDAQ lifting tech stocks- broader market near even as the AD line was 1.1:1 for the day. The DJIA and S&P end near unchanged, while the NASDAQ posted 1.2 percent gain.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias- the forecast is subject to change; any change will be posted by about 11:00 pm ET- well ahead of Tuesday's open.  

 

Weekend-

4/17/04 Saturday 10:42 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™? Find out how the Barometer can help you by clicking the following links. Market Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving higher.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate positive.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.

4/18/04 Sunday 11:10 am ET- Forecast reiteration: With mostly mixed results from the stock market (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ) last week, the market forecast models now indicate POSITIVE with a CAUTIONARY/ neutral bias going into Monday's open.

4/18/04 Sunday 1:28 pm ET- Site Information: Due to changes in the redistribution of the Dow Jones Index, our service provider discontinued supplying delayed and real-time DOW ticker data and chart. However, they will provide end of day (EOD) data after the close of each session.

4/18/04 Sunday 2:45 pm ET- The Market Memo, updated today, now indicates a higher probability that the indices (djia, S&P, and NASDAQ) could trade in a tight trading-range until the Fed increases the Fed funds target which could happen late this year or early 2005... read the memo...  

 

4/16/04 Friday-

4/16/04 Friday 9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed start.

4/16/04 Friday 11:04 am ET- Up to midmorning a very mixed market as rotation seems to be the theme of the day. The djia is up by 0.1 percent, the S&P up by 0.2 percent, but the NASDAQ is off by nearly 1/2 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

4/16/04 Friday 4:48 pm ET- Buyers concentrate on non-tech stocks and send the djia and S&P higher, NASDAQ lower. Thus far in 1Q earnings, no market leader [stock] has surfaced and that coupled with the still uncertain events in terrorism and Iraq (not to mention rate hike) keep a lid on stocks. The stock market barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias; no change is expected in the forecast this weekend.  

 

4/15/04 Thursday-

4/15/04 Thursday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

4/15/04 Thursday 10:49 am ET- The major indexes trend lower after a positive start Thursday amid weak jobless data that saw an increase in first time initial claims. The DJIA and S&P are near unchanged, the NASDAQ is lower by 0.7 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates positive with a cautionary/ neutral bias-  ##  the bias was changed yesterday from positive to caution.

4/15/04 Thursday 4:57 pm ET- Stock market ends mixed with NASDAQ sliding 1.2 percent while the DJIA and S&P end slightly higher within 0.2 percent of flat. No bad news to take stocks lower and no unexpected good news to take stocks higher- investors discount the good and the bad but eye the Fed for a rate hike. The market forecast continues to indicate positive but with a cautionary bias- bias was change from positive yesterday.  

 

4/14/04 Wednesday-

4/14/04 Wednesday 9:20 am ET- Look for a negative open. The market forecast, at this time, indicates positive but the bias is subject to change this morning.

4/14/04 Wednesday 10:56 am ET- Market started Wednesday's session where it left off Tuesday on increased fear of a Fed rate hike- Fed funds interest rate target currently at 1 percent. The popular averages since, have trended higher as the morning wears on to near the unchanged-line where the indices hover within 0.1 percent.  The Market Barometer models indicate a change in bias if the market continues to waver. The market forecast (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ) continues to indicate positive but is subject to change.

4/14/04 Wednesday 2:18 pm ET- Site Information: Due to the change in the redistribution of the Dow Jones Index, our service provider discontinued supplying delayed and real-time DOW ticker data and chart. However, they will provide end of day (EOD) data after the close of each session.

4/14/04 Wednesday 3:30 pm ET- The bias has been changed to caution from positive because of the increasing negative sentiment in the market. The forecast now indicates positive with a 'cautionary/ neutral' bias.

4/14/04 Wednesday 4:50 pm ET- Market struggles all day and tries to make unchanged but falls short. A mostly negative day Wednesday on concerns over a Fed rate hike this year, kept buyers from bidding stocks higher. The Market Barometer bias was changed to caution from positive causing the market forecast to indicate positive with a cautionary bias. The DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ end nearly flat for the day.  

 

4/13/04 Tuesday-

4/13/04 Tuesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a positive start.

4/13/04 Tuesday 10:48 am ET- Stocks get off to a great start Tuesday only to see it all disappear. Good economical news and good earnings start the market positive but lack of continued good news sends the major indexes and stocks lower. The DJIA and S&P are lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive but is subject to a bias change- the bias is currently positive.

4/13/04 Tuesday 4:45 pm ET- Stocks end lower Tuesday on rate hike fear. Investors sold stocks across the board- 4.8:1 ratio; for every 5 issues that declined, 1 advanced. The major indices ended lower; Dow lower by 1.3 percent, S&P by 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1.7 percent. Despite the sell-off, the Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive- a positive means the major indices generally should move higher but as noted today selling is part of a normal healthy market. The forecast is always subject to change and the models will run later this evening to determine any forecast change. Any forecast change will be posted at around 11:00 pm ET.

4/13/04 Tuesday 10:15 pm ET- Evening model data has been analyzed and indicate no change to the bias;  the data used to determine bias change was very close to indicating a change to caution, but further data is required before making that determination. Wednesday's market must be positive early on and continue to show positive signs throughout the session. Any wavering or indication of a indecisive market will be considered detrimental to the positive environment in the short-term. The forecast continues to indicate positive but models also indicate caution during the open Wednesday.  

 

4/12/04 Monday-

4/12/04 Monday 9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open as investors prepare for earnings season.

4/12/04 Monday 10:41 am ET- Indices open positive and continue to trend higher as traders await earnings reports from some heavy hitters- earnings season in full swing this week. The DOW and S&P higher by 0.7 percent and the NASDAQ up by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast, unchanged over the holiday-weekend, indicates positive with a positive bias.

4/12/04 Monday 4:30 pm ET- Indices end positive, broader market ends mixed with low volume; traders and investors await earnings guidance. DJIA ended Monday positive by 0.7 percent, S&P positive by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ positive by 0.6 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate positive.  

 

Weekend-

4/9/04 Friday 10:49 am ET- Markets closed for Good Friday holiday. Markets will open Monday morning.

4/10/04 Saturday 12:04 pm ET- Model run from Thursday evening indicated no forecast change. The forecast indicates positive with a positive bias for Monday's start.

4/11/04 Sunday 10:50 am ET- Are you new to Market-Barometer™? Find out how we can help you by clicking these links. All the Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving higher.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a positive bias.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.  

 

4/8/04 Thursday-

4/8/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a positive start.

4/8/04 Thursday 10:42 am ET- Good economical and earnings reports sees the stock market advance in early trade but trending lower towards unchanged- NASDAQ continues to outperform. We could see a neutral market today as investors position for a long holiday weekend. The forecast continues to indicate positive with a positive bias but is subject to a bias change.

4/8/04 Thursday 4:37 pm ET- After the morning run-up, stocks trended lower Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend and ended mixed. The S&P and NASDAQ ended near unchanged, while the DOW ended lower by 0.4 percent. Market got off to a good start on earnings and economical news then investors positioned for the three day holiday weekend; uncertainty of terrorist plans for the holiday keeps buyers on hold till Monday. The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a positive bias but is subject to change. Models will run at 9:30 pm ET this evening but no change is expected; any change to the forecast will be posted by Saturday around 3:00 pm ET.  

 

4/7/04 Wednesday-

4/7/04 Wednesday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

4/7/04 Wednesday 10:46 am ET- Stocks are anemic early Wednesday as renewed uncertainty of war in Iraq begins to reestablish investors focus- helped slightly by Alcoa's profit miss. The DJIA and S&P are lower by 0.7 percent and the NASDAQ is off by 0.9 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates positive with a positive bias but is subject to change if the models pickup any sign that the latest advance of the market is stalling.

4/7/04 Wednesday 4:30 pm ET- Indices make run for unchanged but ran out of steam as a growing concern over events in Iraq once again takes focus. Ahead of Yahoo's earnings release, the DJIA lost 0.9 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ lost 1/2 percent.  ##  The Barometer's market forecast indicates positive with a positive bias- evening models run at 9:30 and any forecast bias change would be posted around 11:00 pm ET.  

 

4/6/04 Tuesday-

4/6/04 Tuesday 9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

4/6/04 Tuesday 11:02 am ET- Buyers take rest after advancing stocks. A ten day run shows the DOW, and S&P had gained nearly 5% and the NASDAQ better than 7%- the positive market is attributed to expected job creation and less terror news. Now it's on to earnings with Alcoa tonight and several others later in the week. The DJIA is off by 0.4 percent, the S&P off by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates positive with a positive bias.

4/6/04 Tuesday 4:30 pm ET- DOW ends positive- S&P, NASDAQ, and the broader market end lower on Tuesday as buyers rest. Alcoa reported and missed estimate- stock is down in early after hours trade. The market forecast, changed over the weekend, indicates positive with a positive bias- no change is expected this evening.  

 

4/5/04 Monday-

4/5/04 Monday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Chance the DJIA could go positive at the open.

4/5/04 Monday 10:46 am ET corrected- Market gets off to a slow start- but a positive one, as not much in way of economical data or earnings this shorten week (Good Friday holiday- market closed this Friday). The DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are positive by 0.2 percent.  ##  The market forecast, changed over the weekend, now indicates a positive market with a positive bias. This means the U. S. stock market environment should be generally positive.

4/5/04 Monday 4:33 pm ET- Market closes Monday's session at the highs with a last hour surge on continuing expectations of a good earnings season and low interest rates. The DOW and S&P close up by 0.8 percent, the NASDAQ ended Monday with a 1.1 percent gain.  ##  The stock market forecast, changed over the weekend, now indicates a positive environment with a positive bias.  ##  The bias leads the forecast and any decay of the positive environment will first show up in the bias indicator.  

 

Weekend-

4/3/04 Saturday 10:38 am ET-  New to Market-Barometer™? Find out how we can help you by clicking the links below. The Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday morning open. Model data is being analyzed for a possible forecast change- any forecast change will be posted no later than 3:00 pm ET today. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries turning upward.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   New users can get more information on the Markets page.

4/3/04 Saturday 2:30 pm ET-  The forecast has changed to positive from caution because a new bullish trend has developed. Bears are putting up roadblocks and the Bulls will have to, once again, test resistance- as early as next week...

4/4/04 Sunday 11:15 am ET- Yesterday the forecast was changed to positive from caution because a new bullish trend has developed. Barring anymore terrorist news and continued reasonable economical data, the market is well positioned to advance further into bear territory. There is resistance to overcome and testing of this resistance could come as early as this week. The forecast now indicates positive with a positive bias.  

 

4/2/04 Friday-

4/2/04 Friday 9:28 am ET-  Look for a strong start today on March payroll data- job creation exceeded expectations.

4/2/04 Friday 10:28 am ET-  U.S. economic expansion added 308,000 jobs- stock market reacts with an early rally, that since has trended lower an hour into Friday trading. It is not uncommon to see the indices trend lower after such a good start. It will be how the market ends this afternoon that will count- late day reaction is common. The DJIA is up by 0.6 percent, the S&P up by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ is up by 1.2 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias but is subject to change.

4/2/04 Friday 4:40 pm ET-  NASDAQ leads jobs rally with a 2.1 percent gain on the day as the DJIA and S&P follow at a distance. A huge surprise of 308,000 new jobs in March catches investors off guard Friday and they react bidding stocks higher. The last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET and any change to the forecast will be posted by around 3:00 pm ET Saturday- we go home early on Fridays. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias and is subject to change.

 

4/1/04 Thursday-

4/1/04 Thursday 9:25 am ET-  look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

4/1/04 Thursday 10:44 am ET-  Good economical data was received by traders Thursday sending stocks higher in early trade. But the market awaits the nonfarm payroll job creation report due out early Friday- investors are generally expecting job creation to be above expectations of 100,000 to 120,000. The DJIA is up by 0.4 percent, the S&P up by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ leads with a 1 percent gain.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4/1/04 Thursday 4:46 pm ET-  Stocks remain healthy leading into Friday's much anticipated jobs/payroll report. The DOW lagged with a slight increase of 0.2 percent, S&P ended up by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1 percent. Advancing issues ended positive over declining issues by 1.8:1 ratio. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Models run this evening at 9:30 pm ET and any change to the forecast will be posted at around 11:00 pm.

4/1/04 Thursday 10:38 pm ET-  Market memo has been updated to suggest a continuation of the "bull" market IF...  "In order for the March 2003 rally to continue and to turn this market into a "bull" market, according to Barometer methodology, the Barometer-plot must advance past the 'Jan 23 top' as depicted in the chart...

 

3/31/04 Wednesday-

3/31/04 Wednesday 9:24 am ET-  Look for a flat, possibly mixed open.

3/31/04 Wednesday 10:51 am ET-  Stocks sink in early trade as 1Q ends. The indices sank to morning lows but since have tried to  recover- indices trending back to the flat line. The DJIA and NASDAQ are off by 0.4 percent, and the S&P off by 0.3 percent.  ##  The market forecast reads caution with a positive bias.

3/31/04 Wednesday 4:40 pm ET-  Market ends flat on Wednesday, ending first-quarter, 2004. The DJIA was lower by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ off by 0.3 percent, and the S&P ends nearly unchanged.  ## The market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias- a positive bias means the indices are more likely to end in a positive environment than in a negative environment.  

 

3/30/04 Tuesday-

3/30/04 Tuesday 9:22 am ET-  look for a neutral-to-negative open.

3/30/04 Tuesday 10:38 am ET-  Market gets off to a neutral start Tuesday as investors take time off from the past 3-day bull run. The DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ are all at the unchanged line.  ##  The market forecast, changed last evening, now indicates caution with a positive bias. A positive bias means the indices are likely to be more positive, in this cautionary market, than negative.

3/30/04 Tuesday 4:35 pm ET-  DOW and S&P hug the flat line most of the day and takeoff in the last two hours of trade to end with a good gain. NASDAQ spent most of the day underwater but joined the party to end on the plus side.  ##  The bias was changed yesterday to positive because of an apparent sentiment change.  ##  The forecast now reads caution with a positive bias. A positive bias means it is more likely, now, for the market to end positive than negative. Models run at 9:30 pm ET this evening but no further change in the forecast is expected.  

 

3/29/04 Monday-

3/29/04 Monday 9:20 am ET- Look for a positive open.

3/29/04 Monday 10:25 am ET- Stocks takeoff Monday morning on lack of real bad geopolitical events over the weekend and on optimism of a standout jobs report on Friday- due for a job creation surge. The indices at session highs with the DJIA up by 1.1 percent, S&P up by 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ positive by 1.6 percent.  ##  The market barometer forecast continues to indicate caution- caution means the indices can turn in mixed performance over the short term.

3/29/04 Monday 2:17 pm ET- Slightly off the highs of the session, the popular market averages continue to hold most of the gains of the session. The DOW is up by 1.2 percent, the S&P up by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1.6 percent.

3/29/04 Monday 4:30 pm ET- Market holds most of the days gains to the end. Advancing issues swamped declining issues as the DJIA and the S&P ended with over a percent gain- NASDAQ ends nearly  1.7 percent. No economical data today to stir traders but starting Tuesday with consumer confidence ending with the all important job creation report- nonfarm payroll on Friday. The last model run is at 9:30 pm ET, and any change to the forecast will be posted by around 11:00 pm. The market forecast continues to indicate caution.

3/29/04 Monday 10:48 pm ET- The evening models have completed and indicate a bias change to positive. The last three trade days indicate a more positive attitude among investors- perhaps discounting the geopolitical news in favor of an expected pickup of jobs, the last major indicator that has lagged the recovery. The forecast now reads CAUTION with a positive bias. A positive bias indicates that the market can be negative or positive on any given day, but indications are that positive will rule over negative most of the time. It also means that negative (bad) news can be discounted.  

 

Weekend-

3/27/04 Saturday 10:50 am ET- Forecast reiteration: Stock market ends Friday, and the week, mostly unchanged- NASDAQ did gain about 1 percent on the week. Geopolitical news pretty much had investors focus but as the week wore on, that became less of a concern. The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ ended nearly unchanged.  ##   The market forecast models continue to indicate CAUTION with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

3/27/04 Saturday 1:42 pm ET- Site Information: We changed the forecast bug, located at the top-right of each page. To make it easier to read, we took the forecast symbols off and lengthened some of the words. If you are new to the site, click this link to get a definition of the different indicators.  ##  You can also click this link to see the forecast.  ##  Click this link to see the forecast log- the log is the WHEN and WHY of the forecast.

3/28/04 Sunday 10:25 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™? Find out how the Barometer can help you by clicking the links below. The Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving lower.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.

3/28/04 Sunday 9:39 pm ET- Forecast reiteration: With an economical "rich" week ahead, the barometer stock market forecast (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ)  continues to indicate CAUTION with a cautionary/ neutral bias going into Monday's open.  

 

3/26/04 Friday-

3/26/04 Friday 9:19 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-slightly lower open. Possibly mixed market after the open.

3/26/04 Friday 10:32 am ET- Market starts out mixed on Friday with NASDAQ slightly higher and the DOW and S&P slightly lower- all within 0.1 percent of unchanged.  ##  The stock market forecast maintains caution through the session.

3/26/04 Friday 4:25 pm ET- Market ends near unchanged after spending most of the day positive. The DJIA and S&P lower by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ lower by 0.4 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.  

 

3/25/04 Thursday-

3/25/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

3/25/04 Thursday 10:56 am ET- Stocks off to a good start Thursday, helped slightly by the good economical news and less focus on geopolitical news. The DJIA and S&P are positive by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ continues to outperform positive by 1.6 percent.  ##  No change to the forecast that continues to indicate caution. A caution means the indices are just as likely to be positive as negative- nearly equal weighting.

3/25/04 Thursday 4:48 pm ET- Buyers come back after five down days in bargain hunting session. The rally inspired possibly by lack of real-time terror news, some OK economical data and a temporary oversold market. The broader market advanced with nearly a 2.7:1 ratio. The DJIA rose 1.7 percent, the S&P positive by 1.6 percent, and the out performing NASDAQ up by 3 percent. Markets are just about even with two weeks ago. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution- but is subject to change. Any change will be posted on the home page by around 11:00 pm ET this evening.  

 

3/24/04 Wednesday-

3/24/04 Wednesday 9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

3/24/04 Wednesday 10:31 am ET- With good economical news but still worries over geopolitical events, the U.S. stock market major indices hang close to the unchanged line looking for direction. The DJIA and S&P are unchanged, while the NASDAQ is sporting nearly 1/2 percent gain.  ##  The market forecast continues to show caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.  A new forecast BUG will replace the current bug in the near future- we took the symbols off and expanded the words that describe the forecast.

3/24/04 Wednesday 5:10 pm ET- Choppy session that ends near unchanged- save the NASDAQ's out performance today. Continued worry over geopolitical events and no real 'focusable' economical data (like the payroll data, and ISM next week) to inspire trade. Market is content to consolidate and rotate until the next big move- The DJIA and S&P lost 0.2 percent, but the NASDAQ out performed today with a 0.4 percent gain. Not much of a chance of a forecast change this evening- The market forecast continues to indicate caution.  

 

3/23/04 Tuesday-

3/23/04 Tuesday 9:28 am ET- Look for a positive start.

3/23/04 Tuesday 11:03 am ET- Buyers are back (for now) as the short-term oversold condition from yesterday lures. Near the high of the morning, but trending lower,  the indices are content to stay within short range of unchanged. The DJIA and NASDAQ are positive by 1/2 percent, and the S&P positive by 0.4 percent.  ##  The forecast unchanged yesterday, continues to indicate caution.

3/23/04 Tuesday 4:47 pm ET- No conviction- no direction, market moves on uncertainty. Geopolitical concerns dominate today as investors are unsure of the risks in maintaining positions. The DOW ends flat, S&P ends off by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ ends lower by 0.4 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.  

 

3/22/04 Monday-

3/22/04 Monday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

3/22/04 Monday 10:32 am ET- Continued concern over terrorism threats keep buyers on the sidelines. The market indices continue trending lower with the DOW and S&P off by 1.3 percent and the NASDAQ off by 1.7 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution.

3/22/04 Monday 2:36 pm ET- Sellers continue taking profits as it is becoming evident that bad news rules. At or near the lows of the session, the DJIA is lower by 1.4 percent, S&P lower by 1.6 percent, and the NASDAQ leading the way with a 2 percent loss.

3/22/04 Monday 4:40 pm ET- Pricey stocks, uncertain times, equals selling. Stocks get slammed again today on the ever present geopolitical bad-news front. Investor and traders take profits and await better times as indicated by the selling today, the DJIA closed off by 1.2 percent, the S&P lower by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1.6 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates caution with a Barometer cautionary/ neutral bias. The last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET, any change to the forecast will be posted on the home page by around 11:00 pm.

3/22/04 Monday 10:34 pm ET- No change to the forecast is indicated. The models indicate a recovering economy, evidence of corporate America in the early stages of expansion, interest rates are low, job creation expansion forthcoming- the fundamentals of the market are good. What's not-so-good is pricey stocks and day-to-day geopolitical events that traders are focusing on. If it were not for deteriorating global events, traders and investors would be focusing on fundamentals and the stock market would be an abundantly favorable environment for stocks. With that in mind, the forecast was not changed and will remain at caution until global events that influence trading can be factored into market performance. The forecast continues to indicate caution.  

 

Weekend-

3/20/04 Saturday 10:23 am ET- There was no change indicated in last evenings model run. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

3/21/04 Sunday 11:07 am ET- New to Market-Barometer™? Find out how we can help you by clicking the following links. The Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving lower.  ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution.  ##  New users can get more information on the Markets page.

3/21/04 Sunday 4:08 pm ET- Forecast reiteration: With the mostly negative results from the stock market (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ) last week, the market forecast models continue to indicate CAUTION with a CAUTIONARY bias going into Monday's open.  

 

3/19/04 Friday-

3/19/04 Friday 9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

3/19/04 Friday 10:39 am ET- Market gets off to a mixed start Friday on lack of economic data and mixed geopolitical news. Indices reflect some consolidation as traders and investors await fresh economical data. The DOW is off by 0.1 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ are off 0.2 percent.  ##  The Barometer market forecast indicates caution.

3/19/04 Friday 4:47 pm ET- Market ends Friday with a loss as traders are uncertain about geopolitical events and want to lessen vulnerability over the weekend- also options expiration can cause some volatility. The DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ, all lost 1.1 percent.  ##  The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate caution- no change is expected over the weekend.  

 

3/18/04 Thursday-

3/18/04 Thursday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

3/18/04 Thursday 10:43 am ET- Market starts Thursday in negative territory after two day rally. With some of the terrorism concerns discounted, traders are trying to focus on economics- the fundamentals of the market. Jobless claims report this morning indicates a continued decrease in first time jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January was released showing 0.6 percent advance. The DJIA shows a loss of 0.5 percent, the S&P is down by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ down by 0.9 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast indicates caution with a cautionary or neutral bias.

3/18/04 Thursday 2:05 pm ET- Indices (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ) drift lower during morning trade and since has reversed direction and is heading to the unchanged line- market consolidates and awaits firm direction. The market forecast, changed yesterday, now indicates caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.

3/18/04 Thursday 5:17 pm ET- Market rallies off the lows this afternoon on rumor of al-Qaida number 1 or 2 top terrorist surrounded by Pakistan military. The indices were selling-off this afternoon when they gingerly came back to near even for the day- NASDAQ was a laggard. The DJIA was unchanged, the S&P off by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ was off by 0.7 percent.

3/18/04 Thursday 6:05 pm ET- The close models have run and indicate no change to the forecast, pending this evening model run- no change is expected. The market forecast indicates caution with a cautionary/ neutral bias.  

 

3/17/04 Wednesday-

3/17/04 Wednesday 9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

3/17/04 Wednesday 10:25 am ET- Market gets off to a strong start Wednesday on continued bargain hunting- helped by CPI data.  The DOW and S&P are up by 0.8 percent, the NASDAQ is up by 1.3 percent. Market models ran last evening and there was no change to the forecast. The market forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias.  ||  The bias could change if market fundamentals continue positive.

3/17/04 Wednesday 1:10 pm ET- The midday Barometer models indicate a more favorable condition and attitude now exists in the market compared to the last couple of weeks. Therefore, the bias has been changed to caution from negative.

3/17/04 Wednesday 4:43 pm ET- A very positive environment sees the popular averages move higher Wednesday for the second day in a row. With today's bullishness on the economy and corporate Americas ability to continue growing, we see a positive bounce off of Barometer resistance- a test that is needed to sustain the March 2003 rally.  || 

The major averages ending near the high of the session sees the DOW with a gain of 1.1 percent, S&P gained 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ gained 1.7 percent.  || 

The Barometer bias was changed at midday to caution from negative because of the noticeable change in sentiment.  || 

The market forecast now reads caution with a cautionary bias.  

 

3/16/04 Tuesday-

3/16/04 Tuesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a positive start. There was no change to the forecast last evening.

3/16/04 Tuesday 10:19 am ET- After sell-off bargain hunting has the averages near session highs. Market takes off this morning on a better feeling for things. Less uncertainty than yesterday, so it's back to buying- see if it holds up. The DOW and NASDAQ are up by 0.7 percent, and the S&P is positive by 0.6 percent.  ||  The stock market forecast (DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P) continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/16/04 Tuesday 4:58 pm ET- Market indices end positive after rollercoaster ride. Early morning rally turned into a downward trending market only to see another rally in the last hour of trade on Tuesday. Post FOMC meeting sees the Fed funds interest rate target at 1 percent- no change, as expected. The FOMC did see job creation as a laggard and indicated their patients with leaving interest rate low. Markets reaction was mixed until the last hour when the averages dipped to the unchanged line and then rallied. The DOW end positive by 0.8 percent, the S&P up by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.2 percent. Since today is a positive day, there most likely will not be a forecast change. The last model run of each trade day is at 9:30 pm ET and if there were to be a change, it would be posted on the home page by about 11:00 pm. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/15/04 Monday-

3/15/04 Monday 9:20 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

3/15/04 Monday 10:19 am ET- Stocks get off to a negative start on continued terrorism concerns and ahead of the FOMC meeting set for Tuesday. The DJIA off by 0.4 percent, the S&P is off by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.6 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/15/04 Monday 4:38 pm ET- Continued terrorism concerns take its toll on the market with the major indices moving to the lows of the session in the last hour of trade. The DJIA lost 1.3 percent, the S&P lost 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 2.3 percent.  ||  The market forecast indicates caution and the bias indicates negative. Any change to the forecast will be posted around 11:00 pm ET this evening- the last model run is at 9:30 pm ET each evening of trade.  

 

Weekend-

3/13/04 Saturday 10:44 am ET- Forecast reiteration: With the positive results from the market (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ) yesterday, the models continue to indicate the forecast for the indices to be CAUTIONARY with a NEGATIVE bias going into Monday's open. Any forecast change normally comes after the last market day model run and any forecast change is posted here at about 11:00 pm ET- well prior to the next open.

3/14/04 Sunday 11:19 am ET- New-to-the-site information: The Barometer charts (U.S. stock market charts) have been updated for the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance well into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving lower.   ##  The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/12/04 Friday-

3/12/04 Friday 9:16 am ET- Look for a positive start. No change was made to the forecast.

3/12/04 Friday 10:25 am ET- Green across the board on this early trading Friday as the popular averages indicate investors are bargain hunting. But it will be how the market ends today that will indicate confidence or not; in uncertain times, traders and investors don't like to keep new positions open over a weekend when uncertainty rules- watch the last hour. The DJIA and S&P are up by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1.2 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to show caution with a negative bias.

3/12/04 Friday 2:43 pm ET- With a little over an hour to go, indices are just off the highs of the session. You will know how traders and investors feel about all the uncertainty by how the market closes- watch the last hour. The DJIA, and the S&P are up by 1 percent and the NASDAQ is up by 1.6 percent.

3/12/04 Friday 4:32 pm ET- The votes are in- buyers win. Market closes at the high of the day, discounting much of the bad news in favor of recouping some losses and favoring the outlook. All of this in front of the FOMC meeting next week. The DJIA closes positive by 1.1 percent, the S&P by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ by 2.1 percent.  ##  The forecast continues to indicate caution.  

  

3/11/04 Thursday-

3/11/04 Thursday 9:26 am ET- Terrorism concerns in overnight markets- look for a negative open. It is possible to get a turnaround later in the session, where prices move higher. There was no overnight forecast change, it continues to indicate caution.

3/11/04 Thursday 10:19 am ET- Market makes a comeback- of sorts. Off the lows of the morning and with the sell-off yesterday, we could possibly see the indices move higher as buyers step in and bargain-hunt. The DOW is lower by 0.5 percent, the S&P is off by 0.3 percent- NASDAQ in positive territory by 0.2 percent.  ##  The forecast, unchanged, continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/11/04 Thursday 2:20 pm ET- Market hangs tough amid yesterdays sell off, today's dip, terrorism concerns, and mixed economical data- has the indices struggling for direction. Did we mention Greenspan's jobs creation prediction of recovery? A lot of uncertainty- just what traders and investors love. The DJIA and S&P are unchanged, the NASDAQ is up by 0.6 percent.  ##  The market forecast was not changed yesterday evening and continues to indicate caution with the propensity (bias) to move lower- all things equal.

3/11/04 Thursday 4:45 pm ET- Terror concerns to much for traders to contend with- markets sell off again. Geopolitical events hit the market with deep selling near the end of trade Thursday, as the averages continue plunging, with today, the DOW losing 1.6 percent, the S&P lost 1.5 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 1 percent.  ##  The forecast, for now, indicates caution but is subject to change- any change to the forecast will be posted around 11:00 pm ET this evening after the last model run of the day.  

 

3/10/04 Wednesday-

3/10/04 Wednesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start this morning. Chance of mixed open.

3/10/04 Wednesday 10:20 am ET- Stocks continue to sink as the market looks for direction; jobless initial claims due out Thursday morning, could spark trading. The DJIA, near session low, is down by 0.3 percent, the S&P is down by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ is unchanged. There is a chance of a turnaround in attitude of traders later this afternoon- sending prices higher. Meanwhile, the stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/10/04 Wednesday 1:24 pm ET- NASDAQ tries to rally but is met with more selling. After the failed attempt, the popular indexes continue the drift lower with a sharp decline that is now in progress. The DOW and S&P are down by 0.7 percent, the NASDAQ lower by 0.6 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/10/04 Wednesday 4:35 pm ET- Stocks are hammered after a failed attempt by NASDAQ to rally. Buyers have run stocks up since mid-March last year and with a lot of uncertainty (job creation and Fed funds rate hike) the least resistance at these levels is down. Models again will run later this evening and any change to the forecast will be posted at about 11:00 pm ET tonight. The DOW and S&P lost 1.5 percent, the NASDAQ lost 1.6 percent. Declining issues swamped advancing issues. The forecast, at this time, continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/9/04 Tuesday-

3/9/04 Tuesday 9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly negative open.

3/9/04 Tuesday 10:25 am ET- The popular averages show a continuation of yesterday's selling stocks. With little economical data until Thursday's jobs report, investors could be satisfied with a drifting market. Any drift, however,  would be seen as a lower drift. The models indicated no forecast change and continue to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/9/04 Tuesday 1:18 pm ET- Buyers just wont step in and bid stocks higher. No reason to when you know you can get it cheaper. The selling continues with the DOW off by 0.7 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ off by 0.6 percent.

3/9/04 Tuesday 4:34 pm ET corrected-Traders and investors are on the same page- sell side, albeit without conviction. Major averages sink but well off the lows of the day. Watch for a turnaround Wednesday. The DOW and NASDAQ closed down by 0.7 percent, S&P down by 0.6 percent. Early model data indicates no forecast change tonight, but all of the models haven't run yet- any change to the forecast will always be posted well before the next open. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/8/04 Monday-

3/8/04 Monday 9:20 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

3/8/04 Monday 10:18 am ET- Stocks get off to a good start- new week, little economical data to drive the market, begin thinking about the up-coming FOMC meeting next week. The DOW is up by 0.2 percent, the S&P up by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ is positive by 0.1 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/8/04 Monday 2:14 pm ET- Stocks slip after lunch, as the market  looks for direction; no economical data, earnings season nearing an end, a general lack of news, leaves the DOW off by 0.1 percent, the S&P off by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ down by 1.1 percent. The forecast indicates caution and with the bias already negative, there is little evidence that a positive environment can be reestablished. The models will most likely call for a forecast change within the next couple of days (and as early as this evening) unless an improvement comes soon. However, the forecast continues to indicate caution but with a negative bias.

3/8/04 Monday 4:42 pm ET- Directionless stock market sees stocks slip.  Last couple of hours of the session sees selling increase, leaving buyers on the sidelines. A slow news day and nothing to inspire the bulls, as most investors wait on another look at the jobs market- Thursday we see jobless claims data. Barometer forecast models will run later this evening to determine any forecast change- preliminary data indicates a possible change. Last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET, and any change to the forecast will be posted around 11:00 pm. The current forecast calls for caution.

3/8/04 Monday 10:51 pm ET- No change to the forecast. Model data suggests the possibility that the market (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, collectively) could be entering a tight trading range- a Barometer channel. At this point in time, there is insufficient data to change the forecast from caution to negative. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/6/04 Weekend-

3/6/04 Saturday 10:17 am ET- Last evening Barometer model run did not indicate a change to the forecast. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/6/04 Saturday 11:44 am ET- New-to-the-site information: The Barometer charts have been updated for the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance well into bear territory.  ##  The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving lower. The only thing keeping the forecast from changing to negative is the Barometer-plot (yellow) moving sideways. If Monday is mostly a negative market place, we could see the forecast change. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##   the market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

3/7/04 Sunday 10:41 am ET- Reiteration of forecast:  The U.S. stock market (DOW, S&P, NASDAQ) forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/5/04 Friday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a negative open on weak jobs creation report- unemployment rate unchanged.

10:35 am ET- Market reacts negatively to jobs data, but since has recovered. A weak nonfarm payroll job creation report put a hold on buyers early this morning, as traders and investors decide if it's good or bad news. The market is acting favorably at this point- it's how the market performs and ends the session that counts. The good news is, the weak data could be seen as holding the Fed back from increasing the Fed funds target- now at 1 percent. The bad news is, what will be the consumer's take on the data. Until we see more of the session today, the forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:50 pm ET- Market ends mixed; DOW up by 0.1 percent, S&P positive by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.4 percent. Early indication of model data suggests there will not be a forecast change this evening. The market forecast going into Monday continues to indicate caution, pending the evening model analysis.  

 

3/4/04 Thursday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed, open.

10:25 am ET- Market settles into the customary "trend sideways near unchanged" pattern, as the wait for jobs/payroll data on Friday continues. The DOW is lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ are unchanged.  ##  The market forecast calls for caution with a negative bias.

1:48 pm ET- Market averages continue trending higher as the wait for jobs-payroll data continues. Very little chance of a forecast change prior to Friday's market; reaction of the market to job creation and unemployment rate data will be key. The DJIA is off by 0.1 percent, the S&P is up by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ is positive by 0.7 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:37 pm ET- Market ends positive with the DOW lagging. Investors anticipate good news Friday as they await the jobs-payroll data. Job creation has been lagging the economical recovery and the report Friday will be very important for investors; if the report comes in to strong, traders could view that as bringing a Fed rate hike sooner; weak, and traders could view that as the recovery could run out of steam- ether case could see selling. Models will run later this evening, but no change will take place until the data is out and the market has had time to react to it. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/3/04 Wednesday-

9:20 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:30 am ET- Market stabilizes near the unchanged level as traders and investors focus on the Dollar's strength and jobs/payroll data to be released Thursday and Friday. Could see sell-the-news no matter what the data shows. The DOW is off by 0.2 percent, the S&P is off by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ lower by 0.7 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:59 pm ET- Major indices end Wednesday near even ahead of jobless data (Thursday) and payroll/employment data (Friday). With the belief the Fed will raise rates soon, any data pointing to earlier- rather than later, will give cause for traders and investors to dump positions. There is a lot of uncertainty, and that can cause a significant problem for the market. Therefore, the market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

3/2/04 Tuesday-

9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:17 am ET- Indices get off to a mixed start this morning as the DJIA is off by 0.2 percent, the S&P is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is positive by 0.3 percent. The market forecast bias was not changed last evening, as the data from the models indicated that today's market could be neutral, or even negative. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

2:25 pm ET- Profit taking takes center stage today as traders and investors fear a pullback is around the corner.  ##  Barometer leading indicator chart shows a failed attempt (if today continues negative) at breaking through a declining positive boundary- an indication of further risk of the market selling-off. The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a bias of negative.

4:34 pm ET- A downer of a day as traders and investors focus on a pullback. With the rally nearly a year-old, and with the absents of a meaningful correction, less resistance seems to be lower- it's hard to bid stocks higher when they can be viewed as possibly overvalued. The DOW ends down 0.8 percent, the S&P off by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ lower by 0.9 percent. The models will run at 9:30 pm ET and any change to the forecast will be posted at about 11:00 pm.

10:16 pm ET- Barometer market models are complete and indicate no change to the forecast. The data from the model run shows an indecisive market place- as the graph represents, there is no firm trend. The market has a nearly equal weighing with regards to being a positive or negative session; with a slight negative bias. This means a market (DOW, S&P, NASDAQ) forecast of caution with a negative bias is appropriate at this time.  

 

3/1/04 Monday-

9:21 am ET- Look for a positive start. Overseas markets rally overnight. Outlook for U.S. economy still positive. Pullback will come- question is when. Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  ##  Bias could change, depending on strength of market today.

10:18 am ET- Mostly good economical data and world markets rally overnight, has Wall Street traders bidding stocks higher in midmorning trade. The DJIA, and S&P 500 up by 1/2 percent and the NASDAQ up by 0.7 percent. Open models indicate improving metrics but no change to the forecast. The market forecast (DOW, S&P, NASDAQ) continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

12:45 pm ET- Lunch special- buyers drive DOW and S&P up and NASDAQ goes kind of sideways, but all doing well. Barometer models indicate a bias change possibility if market continues to display positive signs.

4:32 pm ET- Good economical data, no real bad news, and a rallying overseas markets, move the U.S. stock market and could move the Barometer market forecast bias out of red. Models will run later this evening and results will be posted by around 11:00 pm ET. The DJIA and S&P earn 0.9 percent gain and the NASDAQ up on the day by 1.4 percent.

10:24 pm ET- The bias was not changed. The Barometer models indicate close proximity of the Barometer-plot to the lower positive boundary as a possible indication that Tuesday's market could be a neutral or even a negative session. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

Weekend-

2/28/04 Saturday 11:41 am ET- Reiteration of the forecast; models ran last evening indicated no change to the current market forecast, although that could change Monday. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  ##  The bias was changed last Monday to negative, which means that if the forecast were to change now, it would change to negative- a negative forecast change would mean a very high probability that a pullback or correction was underway.

2/28/04 Saturday 2:23 pm ET- New-to-the-site information: The Barometer charts have been updated to include the Monday morning open. The Barometer chart shows the latest market (DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ) advance well into bear territory. If we get a "blow-out" jobs/payroll report this coming Friday, we could see another surge of the indices. The leading indicator chart (full chart) shows the boundaries moving lower. The only thing keeping the forecast from changing to negative from, where it is now, caution is the Barometer-plot (yellow) moving sideways. If Monday is mostly a negative market place, we could see the forecast change. The leading indicator "channel chart" gives a closer look at the boundaries and the Barometer-plot.  ##  Until the models run Monday (first run will be just after the open), the market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

2/29/04 Sunday 11:14 am ET- We could be entering a volatile week. With earnings nearly completed, but a heavy dose of economical data ahead, this week could cause the market to get very volatile. We go into the week with the market forecast (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ)  at caution, with the bias of negative. models run several times a day, so a forecast change could be near.  

 

2/27/04 Friday-

9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

10:29 am ET- Market gets early lift from mixed economical data. DJIA and S&P are up by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ is up by 0.3 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The negative bias means the market is more likely to turn negative than  stay positive at the end of day.

1:36 pm ET- Stocks suffer at midday. Mixed economical news; consumer sentiment drops, GDP surges to 4.1, sees the bad news winning out, thus far in the last trade day of the week, and month. The DOW is up by 0.2 percent, the S&P near flat but positive, the NASDAQ is down by 0.3 percent.  ##  The market forecast models continue to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:50 pm ET- Market major indices end nearly unchanged. Stock advance declines end positive- traders and investors look for new fresh news for direction. With much of the same old news, the market is directionless. The DJIA ends up 0.04 percent, the S&P ends unchanged, and the NASDAQ ends off by 0.14 percent.  ##  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. Models are expected to yield no change to the forecast.  

 

2/26/04 Thursday-

9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:13 am ET- Stocks start the day lower on mixed data; jobless claims slightly higher, durable orders data mixed. The DJIA is off by 1/2 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ are off by 0.3 percent.  ##  The Market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

2:12 pm ET- The popular averages, DJIA and S&P hang close to the unchanged line, while the NASDAQ advances by 0.6 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:58 pm ET- The day ends mixed with the DOW off by 0.2 percent, the S&P off by 0.1 percent, but the NASDAQ caught some buying and ended up by 1/2 percent. The AD line was positive. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

2/25/04 Wednesday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral open as traders wait on Greenspan speech.

10:31 am ET- Stocks get off to a positive start in hopes of a Greenspan-positive effect today. The DJIA is up by 0.2 percent, the S&P is up by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ is positive by 0.6 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

11:40 am ET- Fed chief Alan Greenspan gives testimony before the U.S. House committee on the Budget.

4:40 pm ET- Stocks end positive for the first time in over a week. Mostly positive comments [testimony] from Alan Greenspan helps move the averages higher. The DOW closed higher by 0.3 percent, the S&P by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ by nearly 1 percent.  ##  The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The bias could move to caution if within the next couple of days the market continues as positive as today.  

 

2/24/04 Tuesday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:23 am ET- Market indices open lower as traders eye the consumer confidence number. The report indicates a much lower consumer sentiment than was expected- market could react to the data later in the session. The DJIA was lower by 0.2 percent, the S&P lower by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ lower by 1/2 percent- it appears rotation continues. The Barometer market forecast indicates caution with a negative bias.

3:14 pm ET- Near the worst levels of the day, the indexes continue declining, as traders and investors continue taking profits and rotate from high valuation stocks to other less risky investments. With less than an hour to go, the DOW is off 0.6 percent, the S&P off by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ is off by 0.2 percent.

5:05 pm ET- The decline continues but not as bad as it could have been. The S&P and NASDAQ losing slightly, within 0.2 percent of unchanged. The DOW was hit the hardest but only gave up 0.4 percent. The AD line was near even. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.  

 

2/23/04 Monday-

9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:36 am ET- A firm open lets to continued general weakness in the market, led by the tech-heavy NASDAQ. The DOW and S&P are down by 0.2 percent, NASDAQ is down by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to indicate caution. The open models indicate any further weakness today most likely will cause the bias to go negative.

2:03 pm ET- With two hours to go, the selling continues. Off the worst levels of the day, but continuing to trend lower, the DOW is off 0.3 percent, the S&P is off by 0.4 percent, and continuing to be hit hard, the NASDAQ is off 1.4 percent. Midday models continue to indicate a most likely bias change to a negative stance.

3:55 pm ET- The bias has been changed to negative from caution.

4:40 pm ET- The market puts in another downer, but most of the action is in the NASDAQ, as traders and investors rotate out of high valuation stocks into other segments of the market.  ##  The bias was changed to negative just prior to the close because of the NASDAQ rotation.  ##  The forecast now reads caution with a negative bias.  

 

Weekend-

2/21/04 Saturday 12:57 pm ET- Weekly summary; Monday market was closed for Presidents' Day.

Tuesday strength comes to the market by an increase in mergers and acquisition activity- traders like M&A, as it tells them companies are taking advantage of an improving  economical environment. Market ends with the broader market moving up and the indices positive. The DJIA rose 0.8 percent, the S&P by 1 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1.3 percent. Wednesday market ended lower, but off the lows of the day. Stocks got off to a rough start on negative housing data released prior to the open. Traders and investors are getting "itchy fingers", ready to pull the plug if a pullback comes- pullback probably unlikely now, as everybody is waiting for it. The DJIA and S&P ended down by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.2 percent. Thursday stocks took a dive, late in the session, leaving investors wondering why. Good economical and earnings news had traders bidding stocks higher early in the morning, only to see the indices track sideways and slightly lower throughout the day with the NASDAQ leading. Traders could be getting trigger-happy, as a pullback is overdue and any negative technical reason can cause selling. Early afternoon model data suggested that the bias could change later that evening. The last model run, each trade day, is at 9:30 pm ET and any change to the forecast is normally posted after that time- normally around 11:00 pm ET. The DOW ended lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P was lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ, hit hard, moved lower by 1.5 percent. That evening the models did suggest a bias change; so going into Friday's market the forecast indicated caution with a cautionary bias- that bias change puts the forecast that much closer to indicating a negative forecast- a negative forecast would indicate a pullback or a correction. Friday the major indexes continued trending lower on business growth outlook and a renewed sense that the Fed could raise rates sooner rather than later, especially if economical data indicates a faster recovering economy than had been generally expected. Market tried for a comeback but ran out of steam near the end of the day. There was no real good news to propel stocks higher. The DOW and NASDAQ ended lower by 0.4 percent, and the S&P ended lower by 0.2 percent.

2/22/04 Sunday 10:19 am ET- To start the week, the Barometer stock market forecast indicates caution.  ##  The bias was changed to caution last Thursday because the market is unable to sustain a move higher in an economical and earnings-rich environment. Models indicate that if Monday continues to see the market degrade, the bias could change to negative, leaving open the possibility of a forecast change that may include a pullback or correction. Monday's market will be important.  

 

2/20/04 Friday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral open- chance of being mixed.

10:22 am ET- Market gets off to a rough start on not-so-good CPI data and concerns for corporate growth going forward. The DOW and S&P are off by 0.1 percent, the NASDAQ off by 0.2 percent.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution, but the bias was changed yesterday evening to caution from positive.

11:46 am ET- The Consumer Price Index (CPI), for all urban consumers, increased 0.5 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

1:24 pm ET- The major indexes continue trending lower on business growth outlook and a renewed sense that the Fed could raise rates sooner, especially if economical data indicates a faster recovering economy that had been generally expected. The DJIA off by 0.7 percent, the S&P off by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicate caution.

4:51 pm ET- Market tries for a comeback but runs out of steam near the end of the day. There is no real good news to propel stocks higher but some uncertain news is quick to take stocks down. The DOW and NASDAQ end lower by 0.4 percent, and the S&P ends lower by 0.2 percent.  ##  The forecast continues to indicate caution.  

 

2/19/04 Thursday-

9:28 am ET- Look for a positive open on a sharp drop in jobless initial claims data released this morning.

10:33 am ET- Positive start Thursday as traders and investors get positive news; jobless claims drop. AMD and Wal-Mart report earnings. Off the highs of the morning, but in positive territory, the DOW posts 0.4 percent gain, the S&P and NASDAQ are up by 0.3 percent.  ##   The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

11:40 am ET- For the week ending February 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted jobless initial claims is 344,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average is 352,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 351,750. Data supplied by Department of Labor.

12:46 pm ET- A rash of earnings reports and favorable economical data today has traders and investors in a buying mood, as the popular averages are near the best levels of the day. The DOW has gained 0.7 percent, the S&P up by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ lags but is positive by 0.3 percent.

2:37 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast indicates caution but with a positive bias- learn more about the forecast of the U.S. stock market. Options expiration on Friday- market could get volatile. Former Enron CEO charged with fraud, insider trading, and giving false statements. HP to report earnings after the close today. Market indices-  DOW and S&P continue trending slightly lower but close to the highs- NASDAQ is flat.

4:57 pm ET- Stocks take a dive late Thursday leaving investors wondering why. Good economical and earnings news had traders bidding stocks higher early in the morning, only to see the indices track sideways and slightly lower throughout the day with the NASDAQ leading. Traders could be getting trigger-happy, as a pullback is overdue and any negative technical reason can cause selling. Early model data suggests that the bias could change later this evening. The last model run is at 9:30 pm ET and any change to the forecast would be posted after that- normally around 11:00 pm ET. The DOW ends lower by 0.1 percent, the S&P lower by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ, hit hard, moved lower by 1.5 percent.

11:08 pm ET- The bias has changed to caution from positive.  

 

2/18/04 Wednesday-

9:21 am ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

10:33 am ET- After yesterday's M&A rally, market takes a rest. The major indices open mixed and since have sunk just below the redline to post a 0.2 percent loss for the popular averages.  ##  The Stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

11:27 am ET- The release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2004 has been delayed from the originally scheduled date of February 19, 2004. The delay is caused by unexpected difficulties in the conversion of PPI data from the Standard Industrial Classification system to the North American Industry Classification System. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce a revised date for the release as soon as possible.

2:56 pm ET- General lack of fresh news and coming off a merger high (yesterday), stocks tick down as profits are the focus; seems to be the routine of late. That could all change Thursday, as a fresh jobless initial claims data could inspire trading. The problem is, everybody is waiting for the pullback and only when real good news comes about does the market advance. Leading into the last hour of trade, the DOW and S&P are down by 1/2 percent, the NASDAQ off by 0.2 percent. Early model data indicates a possible bias change later this evening. For now, the forecast continues to read caution with a positive bias.

4:40 pm ET- Market ends lower, but off the lows of the day. Stocks got off to a rough start on negative housing data released prior to the open. Traders and investors are getting "itchy fingers", ready to pull the plug if a pullback comes- pullback probably unlikely now, as everybody is waiting for it. The DJIA and S&P end down by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ ends lower by 0.2 percent. Last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET this evening. If there is a forecast change, it will be posted this evening.

6:04 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast models will run at 9:30 ET this evening; any change to the forecast will be posted after 9:30, normally by 11:00 ET. The market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Housing starts fall in January- weather was to blame. PPI scheduled to be released Thursday will be delayed; difficulties in the conversion of PPI data was sighted by The Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

 

2/17/04 Tuesday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a positive start on more mergers and acquisitions.

10:14 am ET- Strength comes to the market this Tuesday by an increase in mergers and acquisition activity- traders like M&A, as it tells them companies are taking advantage of an improving  economical environment. The DJIA was positive by 1/2 percent, the S&P up by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ positive by 0.8 percent.  ##  The market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

1:49 pm ET- With good economical data and M&A focus, traders and investors bid stocks higher with hopes of an increase in companies acquiring others in a growing environment with low rates- companies are not likely to acquire and merge in uncertain times. The DOW is up by 0.7 percent, the S&P up by 0.9 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1.2 percent.

3:24 pm ET- With just about half an hour of trade left in the first day of a shortened week, the indices continue to hang close to the highs of the day on good economical data and M&A activity. The DOW is positive by 0.9 percent, the S&P by 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1.4 percent.

4:36 pm ET- Market ends this first day of "Presidents' day" shortened week with the broader market moving up and the indices positive. The DJIA rose 0.8 percent, the S&P by 1 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1.3 percent. The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6:10 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast "close models" indicate no change to the forecast. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Disney rejects Comcast offer but says it will consider other bids. Cingular gets 40 plus billion bid for AT&T Wireless.  

 

Weekend-

2/14/04 Saturday 10:41 am ET- Forecast Note: There was no change in the bias from Friday's market. The data from the Barometer models suggested that if Tuesday's market is neutral to negative, there most likely would be sufficient data to suggest a bias change to caution. For now, the stock market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

2/14/04 Saturday 12:37 pm ET- Weekly review; Monday a directionless market, as little earnings news and no economical data for traders to mull. As the DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ indicated- it was a quiet, slow day. The DOW closed down 0.1 percent, the S&P down 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ down 0.2 percent. Tuesday slow but positive market as indicated by the popular averages. With little news and no reason to buy or sell ahead of the Fed testimony Wednesday, stocks are satisfied to trend positive. Traders and investors ended Tuesday bidding stocks higher in anticipation that Alan Greenspan testimony will be a stock-market friendly. The DOW ended positive by 0.3 percent, the S&P positive by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ by 0.7 percent. Wednesday stocks turn higher at midmorning on hopes of a delayed Fed action on increasing the Fed funds rate. An upbeat and surprise bid for Disney by Comcast and general optimism that the economy will expand. The Dow up by 0.6 percent, S&P by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.2 percent. Indices continue positive, near highs of the day on upbeat comments from Fed chief Alan Greenspan. Stocks end the session near the highs, on "market" friendly comments from Alan Greenspan, setup early in the day by Mickey- Comcast takeover bid of Disney. The DJIA ended positive by 1.2 percent, S&P up by 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.7 percent. Thursday profiteers take back some of Wednesday's gains, as Fed chief concluded his testimony, but was unable to move the market. Major indexes give back a small amount of gains on mixed economical data, as some traders wait on Dell to report. The DJIA gave up 0.4 percent, the S&P was off by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ was off by 0.8 percent. Friday the market was in a selling mood as the popular averages continued to weaken following the worse than expected consumer sentiment report. Market takes its queue from the sentiment report and gets depressed. Indices end lower as the DOW and S&P posts a 0.6 percent loss, the NASDAQ is lower by 1 percent- money continues to rotate out of tech stocks.

2/15/04 Sunday 10:31 am ET corrected- Forecast reiteration; The leading indicator is at the "home" position, waiting to trigger- last alert was December 11, 2003; The bias, last changed on Wednesday, indicates positive because of a trend reversal- if Tuesday is negative, it could change to caution; The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias..

2/15/04 Sunday 9:57 pm ET- Market closed Monday, February 16 for Presidents' Day. Market will open Tuesday at 9:30 am ET.  

 

2/13/04 Friday-

9:20 am ET- Look for a neutral start.

10:10 am ET- Stocks get a slow start as Dell's good earnings report helps keep things positive. The DJIA, and S&P are up 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ is positive by 0.4 percent.  ##  The market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

12:41 pm ET- Market in a selling mood as the popular averages continue to weaken following a worse than expected consumer sentiment report. The DOW is off by 0.8 percent, the S&P off by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1 percent.

2:24 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast  indicates caution but with a positive bias. Bias could change to caution depending on today's outcome. The leading indicator is at the "home position" waiting to trigger. Investors seek to buy commission free stocks. You can buy stocks direct from companies.

4:50 pm ET- Market takes its queue from the sentiment report and gets depressed. Indices end lower as the DOW and S&P posts a 0.6 percent loss, the NASDAQ is lower by 1 percent- money continues to rotate out of tech stocks.  

 

2/12/04 Thursday-

9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:27 am ET- Popular averages open negative and have settled just shy of unchanged. At 10:15 am ET, the DOW is off by 0.2 percent, S&P negative by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ had turned positive. Mixed economical data released this morning is giving pause, as the market tries to figure out what's next. The Barometer forecast bias was changed to positive last evening and the forecast now indicates caution with a positive bias.

10:53 am ET- For the week ending February 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted jobless initial claims is 363,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average is 350,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average of 345,500.

11:05 am ET- Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, is $322.9 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month, but up 5.0 percent (±1.0%) from January 2003. Total sales for the November 2003 through January 2004 period is up 6.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2003 percent change was revised from 0.5 percent (±0.8%) to 0.2 percent (±0.3%), according to the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

12:23 pm ET- The major market indexes continue slightly negative and trending mostly sideways with the DOW and S&P off by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.4 percent. The stock market forecast, changed last evening, continues to indicate caution with a just-changed bias of positive.

1:45 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast  indicates caution but with a positive bias.  ##  The leading indicator is at the "home position".   Greenspan wraps up semiannual testimony to Congress- doesn't move the market this time.

4:40 pm ET- Profiteers take back some of yesterday's gains, as Fed chief concluded his testimony today, but was unable to move the market. Major indexes give back a small amount of gains on mixed economical data, as some traders wait on Dell to report. The DJIA gives up 0.4 percent, the S&P off by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.8 percent.

5:57 pm ET- With today's negative market brings into question whether another bias change is possible. Although uncommon, it is possible to have a bias change within a couple days of each other. If Friday turns out negative, we could see the bias return to a cautionary stance. But for today, the forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.  

 

2/11/04 Wednesday-

9:21 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

10:22 am ET- Comcast takeover bid of Disney could have caused a lower than expected open of the DOW. Market opens negatively while Comcast breaking news near the open, and a halt on Disney grabs traders attention . The indices have settled down to trend within 0.1 percent of flat.

11:34 am ET- Stocks turn higher at midmorning on hopes of a delayed Fed action on increasing the Fed funds rate. An upbeat and surprise bid for Disney by Comcast and general optimism that the economy will expand. The Dow up by 0.6 percent, S&P by 0.5 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.2 percent. The Market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution.

12:39 pm ET- Indices continue positive, near highs of the day on upbeat comments from Fed chief Alan Greenspan. Models indicate if the market stays positive and advances during the last hour of trade today, the forecast bias could be changed back to positive.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution but is subject to change.

1:41 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast  continues at caution, while the bias is cautionary- bias could change later today. The leading indicator is at the "home position" awaiting the next direction change.  Investors seek to buy commission free stocks. You can buy stocks direct from companies  Greenspan continues giving testimony before Congress and comments rally traders to bid stocks higher.

2:50 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Stock market continues to rally on Greenspan comments to Congress. DOW up by 1.1 percent, S&P up by 1 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent. Comcast hostile takeover is reportedly worth well over 50 billion. Brian Roberts writes takeover letter to Michael Eisner.

4:40 pm ET- Stocks end the day near the highs of the session, on "market" friendly comments from Alan Greenspan, setup early in the day by Mickey- Comcast takeover bid of Disney. The DJIA ends positive by 1.2 percent, S&P up by 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 0.7 percent.

6:11 pm ET- With the advance in the stock market today, the Barometer forecast bias most likely will change, but models need to run to confirm. The evening model run is at 9:30 pm ET and any forecast change will be posted after that time, but well prior to the open. The forecast currently indicates caution with a cautionary bias.  ##  The leading indicator is unchanged.

11:22 pm ET- The bias was changed to positive from caution this evening. An upbeat testimony from Fed chief Alan Greenspan, gave a renewed sense that the Fed funds rate target would maintain 1 percent for an extended period of time.  

 

2/10/04 Tuesday-

9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start- possibly mixed.

10:16 am ET- Market indices open mixed and continue holding close to the unchanged line. The DOW is down slightly by 0.1 percent, The S&P is up by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ is positive by 0.2 percent. Trading could be slow as traders and strategists await the Fed chief to give testimony Wednesday.  The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution.

11:00 am ET- Scenario three of the Market Memo was updated last evening an now indicates a greater chance of a sideways moving stock market...

12:15 pm ET- Slow but positive market as indicated by the popular averages. With little news and no reason to buy or sell ahead of the Fed testimony Wednesday, stocks are satisfied to trend positive. The DJIA reports a 0.2 percent increase, the S&P positive by 0.3 percent, and the NASDAQ by 0.4 percent- breadth is positive.

2:05 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast  indicates caution. The leading indicator is at the "home position" waiting for the next direction change in the market.  Investors seek to buy commission free stocks. You can buy stocks direct from companies  Greenspan to give semiannual testimony to Congress on Wednesday- could move the stock market.

3:17 pm ET- The major indices continue homing in on the red line. With less than an hour to go, we are nearly back at the starting point- DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are within 0.2 percent of unchanged.

4:40 pm ET- Traders and investors end the day bidding stocks higher in anticipation that Alan Greenspan testimony will be a stock-market friendly speech. The DOW end positive by 0.3 percent, the S&P positive by 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ by 0.7 percent.  ##  The market forecast continues to show caution.  

 

2/9/04 Monday-

9:20 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:12 am ET- Market opens mixed with the DOW and S&P falling slightly and the NASDAQ trying to stay positive. The DOW is off by 0.2 percent, the S&P off by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ at the flat line.  ##  The stock market forecast continues to indicate caution.

12:01 pm ET- Directionless market, as little earnings news and no economical data for traders to mull. Thursday traders will digest jobless new claims and Dell earnings, about the only other news will be OPEC meeting Tuesday. We could see a stall in the rally- without news to move either way- sideways or consolidating could be in order. The indices continue near flat with the DJIA and S&P unchanged, and the NASDAQ positive by 0.3 percent.

1:48 pm ET- Market turns positive after the lunch-hour and posts slight gains- NASDAQ leads the market higher. If the market can punch-out good gains today, we could see higher market this week. Otherwise, could go sideways awaiting direction. The Barometer market forecast indicates caution.

4:38 pm ET- As the DJIA, S&P, and the NASDAQ indicate- it was a quiet, slow day. The DOW closed down 0.1 percent, the S&P down 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ down 0.2 percent. The Barometer market forecast, changed last Monday, continues to indicate caution. The bias was changed on January 28, and it indicates caution. The leading indicator is at the "home position" waiting to trigger.

6:05 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution. The leading indicator is at the "home position" waiting for the next direction change in the market.  Investors seek commission free stocks. You can buy stocks direct from companies- cutting out the middle guy. OPEC meeting Tuesday- could move oil. Greenspan to report semiannual testimony to Congress on Wednesday- could move the stock market.  

 

Weekend-

2/7/04 Saturday  10:33 am ET- Weekly summary; Monday, the Indices fell on less than expected ISM manufacturing number. The popular averages were positive prior to the release of the ISM PMI, but began retreating shortly thereafter. Midmorning, the DOW and NASDAQ were off by 0.3 percent, the S&P was off by 0.1 percent. With less than an hour to go, the averages continued to hold ISM gains- PMI came in less than expected, but is seen as a positive- data that comes in less than expected might give the Fed reasons to be patient. Big drop in the major indices near the close could cause problems. Either traders were skittish or managers started dumping stocks for cash, as the averages had a steep drop near the close of trade Monday. The forecast was changed to caution from positive late Monday evening. The models had indicated a break from the firm positive environment that was established on December 22, 2003. Tuesday focused on what Cisco Systems quarterly report would look like, but more importantly, what would be Cisco's business forecast. Not much in economical news but a terrorism scare had buyers and sellers on-hold for the day. A slow day saw the popular averages go sideways to end flat. The DJIA and S&P slightly positive with a 0.1 percent gain, the NASDAQ positive with a 0.2 percent gain. Cisco Systems had beat expectations and was slightly down in after hours. Wednesday investors exit Cisco and the NASDAQ, both sold off on Cisco's outlook. The DJIA and S&P were lower as well by midmorning. With two hours left, the averages continued moving sideways, after the mornings Cisco sell-off. The NASDAQ was off by 1.8 percent, S&P by 0.6 percent, and the DOW by 0.2 percent. Declining issues hammering advancing issues by 2.5:1.  By close time, NASDAQ sunk, took stocks with it. AD line got one-sided. Declining issues pounded advancing issues, in over a 3 to 1 trouncing. The NASDAQ lost 2.5 percent, S&P lost 0.8 percent and the DJIA off by 0.3 percent. Thursday The NASDAQ bounces back in midmorning trade, from Wednesday's blowout sell-off. The DOW and S&P tread the flat line. The big piece of news traders are waiting for is the nonfarm payroll and unemployment data- out Friday morning. Market ends in neutral, as it coasts into the jobs creation and unemployment rate reports Friday morning. If economical data on Friday doesn't inspire buyers to buy, there may not be anything else out there for weeks. Friday employment rose in January, and the unemployment rate, at 5.6 percent, was little changed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000, with job gains in construction and several service-providing industries. Manufacturing employment continued to trend down, but the rate of job loss has moderated in recent months. Well under economists expectation, jobs creation was expected to be more like 150,000. Traders took in stride and decided that was good news as a lower number is seen as holding the Fed from increasing rates sooner. Less than expected economical data rallies the indices Friday as traders and investors bid stocks higher. Economists were expecting 150,000 to 170,000 new jobs to be added to the payroll in January and got 112,000. Thinking on Wall Street is, the lower number shows the last lagging indicator [labor market] might be turning around but low enough that the Fed would be kept "patient". The NASDAQ, the big winner today, soared 2.2 percent, the S&P gained 1.2 percent, and the DOW up by 0.9 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate caution but is subject to change. The last model run of the day at 9:30 didn't indicate any further forecast changes.

2/7/04 Saturday  12:34 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Economical reports; Job creation comes in at 112,000- expected at least 150,000- market rallies anyway. Productivity slows, jobless initial claims increase, factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing (services sector) beats expectations. G7 meeting in Florida Saturday to focus on world economical recovery. Pres. Bush submits 2.4 trillion budget that beefs up; the military, Homeland Security, and the U.S. economy.

2/7/04 Saturday  3:47 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market forecast continues to indicate caution- but could change if another rally ensues next week. For now, news and events will push the indices up or down depending... find out more about the Barometer market forecast. Cisco Systems reported Q2 earnings and a guarded outlook- tech stocks got hit on the news. [Cisco Systems]  Martha Stewart back in court next week- Government witness continues testifying.

2/8/04 Sunday  10:20 am ET- The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate caution. Caution means the U. S. stock market (the popular averages) can advance as well as decline depending on the triggering event or news item. With Fridays bullish reaction to jobs/payroll data, the market could turn once again and continue the rally/advance that has been occurring since March 2003. The bias is at caution and the leading indicator is in the "home position" awaiting to trigger.

2/8/04 Sunday  12:42 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Investors seek commission free stocks. You can buy stocks direct from companies- cutting out the middle guy. Market forecast indicates caution. Even with the rally Friday, the Barometer forecast maintains a caution. G7 meeting in Florida ends with a statement that the ministers see a global economical recovery underway, but warn that currency volatility is undesirable. Intel introduces "Prescott" version of Pentium 4 chip- for power PC users and next generation platforms.

2/8/04 Sunday 4:27 pm ET- There may be little in way of stimulus for traders and investors this week, as earnings season is slowing (Dell on tap Thursday to report) and on the economical calendar there are few economical reports. Besides the weekly jobless new claims report, there are retail sales, trade imbalance, the Michigan sentiment report, import/export prices, for the market to mull. The market forecast continues to indicate caution.  

 

2/6/04 Friday-

9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral open. The Barometer indicates caution until a firm trend develops. Less jobs were created in January than was expected, and traders strategists could react to the mixed payroll jobs report sometime during the session.

10:24 am ET- Employment rose in January, and the unemployment rate, at 5.6 percent, was little changed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000, with job gains in construction and several service-providing industries. Manufacturing employment continued to trend down, but the rate of job loss has moderated in recent months.

10:44 am ET- Market takes off in a positive attitude on the mixed jobs payroll report released earlier this morning. The DOW is up 0.8 percent, S&P up by 1 percent, and the NASDAQ is up 1.4 percent. ## The Barometer market forecast indicates caution.

2:16 pm ET- The major averages maintain their positive stance as traders and investors may see the latest jobs and payroll data as evidence of a recovery but not so robust that the Fed would have to step in an raise rates anytime soon. With less than two hours left in the trade day, the NASDAQ continues advancing with a 1.6 percent gain, S&P with a 0.9 percent gain, and the DOW, off the highs of the day with a 0.6 percent gain.  ##  The Barometer market forecast indicates caution.

5:00 pm ET- Less than expected economical data rallies the indices Friday as traders and investors bid stocks higher. Economists were expecting 150,000 to 170,000 new jobs to be added to the payroll in January and got 112,000. Thinking on Wall Street is, the lower number shows the last lagging indicator [labor market] might be turning around but low enough that the Fed would be kept "patient". The NASDAQ, the big winner today, soared 2.2 percent, the S&P gained 1.2 percent, and the DOW up by 0.9 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate caution but is subject to change. The last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET and any change will be posted after that time, but prior to the next trade day.  

 

2/5/04 Thursday-

9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

10:28 am ET- The NASDAQ bounces back, a little, from yesterday's blowout sell-off. The DOW and S&P tread the flat line. The big piece of news traders are waiting for is the nonfarm payroll and unemployment data- out Friday morning. Indices may do little today, opting for Friday's data. The market forecast continues to indicate caution.

11:05 am ET- For the 4-quarter, the productivity report shows productivity increased 1.8 percent in the business sector, 2.7 percent in the nonfarm business sector. On an annual average basis, productivity rose 4.3 percent in the business sector and 4.2 percent in the nonfarm business sector, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor.

11:39 am ET- For the week ending January 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims is 356,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 339,000. The 4-week moving average is 345,250, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 345,250, according to U.S. Department of Labor.

1:20 pm ET- The forecast was changed Monday evening to caution from positive, because the models detected a change in trading attitude. Caution means the  environment most likely will be somewhat unpredictable until the fundamentals change- a stimulus to reignite a more positive attitude or further negativism that would lead the indices lower. Friday's payroll report could be a significant event. It is expected that the indices will travel sideways as traders await the payroll and unemployment report. There could be a last hour spike in anticipation of the report. The forecast will hold at caution until Friday's market is underway.

2:34 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Economical reports; Productivity slows, jobless initial claims increase, factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing (services sector) beats expectations. G7 meeting in Florida Friday and Saturday to focus on world economical recovery. Pres. Bush submits 2.4 trillion budget that beefs up; the military, Homeland Security, and the U.S. economy.

3:30 pm ET- With half-an-hour left in the trading day, the indices are trending somewhat sideways, but higher, in anticipation of a redeeming jobs-payroll data Friday morning. The DJIA and S&P are positive by 0.4 percent, the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent. The market forecast through midmorning Friday is caution.

4:35 pm ET- Market ends in neutral, as it coasts into the jobs creation and unemployment rate reports Friday morning. If economical data on Friday doesn't inspire buyers to buy, there may not be anything else out there for weeks. The Barometer market forecast indicates caution.  

 

2/4/04 Wednesday-

9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:27 am ET- Investors exit Cisco and the NASDAQ, both are selling off on Cisco's outlook. The DJIA and S&P are lower as well. The market forecast indicates caution going forward.

10:48 am ET- New orders for manufactured goods in December increased $3.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $342.4 billion, the Department of Commerce, Census Bureau reported today.

11:39 am ET- Approaching midday and traders take Cisco's outlook as a sell signal for tech stocks. The NASDAQ continues well below the flat line with a 1.6 percent loss, the S&P being hit with a 1/2 percent loss, DJIA doing a lot better is near flat. The market forecast indicates caution.

12:38 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;   Market forecast now indicates caution. News and events will push the indices up or down depending on the news. more... Cisco Systems reports Q2 earnings and a guarded outlook- tech stocks hit on news. Martha Stewart back in court- Government witness continues testifying.

2:10 pm ET- With two hours to go, the averages continue moving sideways, after the mornings Cisco sell-off. The NASDAQ is off by 1.8 percent, S&P off by 0.6 percent, and the DOW off by 0.2 percent. Declining issues hammering Advancing issues by 2.5:1.

3:39 pm ET- Inside an hour left in trading, DOW tries to reach unchanged, while the S&P continues sideways, and the NASDAQ deepens its loss to over 2 percent. With negative outlook from Cisco, the Fed shooting a warning shot on interest rates, and the fact that stocks have been run-up to high levels, traders and investors take profits- and await better times. The DOW off by 0.1 percent, S&P off by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 2.1 percent. ##  The Barometer market forecast indicates caution. Models run every night to further tweak the forecast, any change to the forecast is posted on the site well before the next market day.

4:36 pm ET- NASDAQ sinks, takes stocks with it. AD line gets one-sided.  declining issues pound advancing issues, in over a 3 to 1 trouncing. The NASDAQ lost 2.5 percent, S&P lost 0.8 percent and the DJIA off by 0.3 percent.

6:08 pm ET- Market gets hammered today- what is needed is some good news to offset the Cisco and Fed news. Jobless new claims and productivity data on deck Thursday- any further bad news could cause much more selling. The Barometer channel-chart shows the plot at a point that, any further negativism, could compound into "piling on" by sellers and shorts. The bias models are close to triggering another move to more negative environment if we don't see some positive news. For now, the forecast indicates caution.  

 

2/3/04 Tuesday-

9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Early focus for traders this morning is a white powder reportedly found in a U.S. Senate office building around 3:00 pm ET yesterday.

10:23 am ET- DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ open negative but has recovered to unchanged- ##  The stock market forecast was changed, last evening, to caution because the models had indicated a break from the "bullish" environment that we have come to be accustomed too. The change to caution means that the Market (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ) could trade in either a positive or negative environment, depending on news and events- discounting is probably shelved for now.

12:03 pm ET- The forecast was changed yesterday evening to caution from positive because the models detected a change in trading attitude. Caution means the  environment most likely will be somewhat unpredictable until the fundamentals change- a stimulus to reignite a more positive attitude or further negativism that would lead the indices lower. If the positive stimulus and negativism is near equal, a tight trading range could once again take the market sideways. The bias leads the forecast- wherever the bias goes, the forecast is sure to follow, normally.

1:30 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Market: Indices after ricin- NASDAQ up by 0.3 percent, DJIA up by 0.2 percent, and the S&P up by 0.1 percent. Intel introduces "Prescott" version of Pentium 4 chip- for power PC users and next generation platforms. Martha Stewart back in court today- Government witness testifies. Cisco Systems reports Q2 after the close. Traders and analysts want to know Cisco's outlook- corporate spending is expected to ramp up this year- Cisco most likely will move the market in after hours and on Wednesday.

2:44 pm ET- With little economical news and ahead of Cisco earnings, and business outlook, buyers and sellers rest as the major averages reflect a slow day. With a little over an hour to go, the NASDAQ and S&P are slightly negative, 0.2 percent, while the DOW is near unchanged. The Barometer market forecast, changed last evening, indicates caution.

4:40 pm ET- Not much in economical news but a terrorism scare had buyers and sellers on-hold for the day. A slow day sees the popular averages go sideways to end flat at the close. The DJIA and S&P slightly positive with a 0.1 percent gain, the NASDAQ positive with a 0.2 percent gain. Cisco Systems beats expectations and was slightly down in after hours.

6:49 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;   Market forecast was changed last evening to caution... Cisco Systems reports Q2 earnings...  

 

2/2/04 Monday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open. Traders await ISM PMI at 10:00 am.

10:22 am ET- Indices fall on less than expected ISM manufacturing number. The popular averages were positive prior to the release of the ISM PMI, but began retreating shortly thereafter. The DOW and NASDAQ off by 0.3 percent, the S&P off by 0.1 percent.

11:45 am ET- To reiterate the forecast- The Barometer market forecast indicates a generally positive market environment with a cautionary bias-  the bias was changed from positive, last Wednesday, to caution. This means, according to Barometer methodology, it is expected the stock market, represented by the major indices, to be generally positive but the forecast is biased- by caution. The bias leads the forecast and when the bias changes to a particular status (it was changed to caution last week), the forecast could follow. If the market can't display a more positive environment today, the forecast will be changed from positive to caution. Today could be pivotal.

12:12 pm ET- Midday check sees the averages back at pre ISM levels- and then some. The DJIA posts 0.3 percent gain, NASDAQ and S&P gaining 0.6 percent. Lunch time can sometimes mask the markets true direction- if the market can continue positive, the remainder of the day, it most likely will avoid a forecast change. The models take the entire day into forecast-change consideration, not just the close.

1:50 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Gold continues lower- a brief spot above $400. this weekend, but since as sunk -$3.60, to $398.40 per ounce. GDP slows in fourth-quarter to 4 percent from 8.2 percent in third-quarter. ISM-PMI manufacturing comes in less than expected- early on takes market down, but since indices posting new highs. Martha Stewart back in court today- Government star witness to testify Tuesday.

3:06 pm ET- With less than an hour to go, the averages continue to hold ISM gains- PMI came in less than expected, but is seen as a positive- data that comes in less than expected might give the Fed reasons to be patient. The S&P posts 0.7 percent gain, The DOW 0.5 percent gain, and the NASDAQ 0.4 percent gain.

4:31 pm ET- Big drop in the major indices near the close could cause problems. Either traders are skittish or managers dumped stocks for cash, as the averages had a steep drop near the close of trade. The models will be running to determine if there will be a forecast change. The last model run is at 9:30 this evening- any change will be posted after that.

6:10 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners;  Barometer forecast models run at 9:30 to determine forecast change- could move forecast to a caution from positive. Intel introduces "Prescott" version of Pentium 4 chip- for power PC users and next generation platforms. ISM-PMI manufacturing comes in less than expected- Made for uneasy trading Monday.

11:10 pm ET- The forecast has changed to caution from positive. The models indicate a break from the firm positive environment that was established on December 22, 2003...   

 

1/31/04 Saturday-

1/31/04 Saturday 12:55 am ET- We had a computer failure and had to restore some text news items and a few internal links. QuoteStream was not affected. We are currently checking the site for problems. You may not notice anything wrong, as most of the site pages were not affected. The problem should be cleared up within an hour.

1/31/04 Saturday 1:29 am ET- The site restore was successful. Only a few news items were corrupted and one internal link was disabled. QuoteStream, and the forecast were not affected.

1/31/04 Saturday 11:05 am ET- Last evening we had a computer failure that caused minor disruption. A few news text items were corrupted and one internal link was disabled. We restored the corrupted items and reestablished an internal link. The forecast system, QuoteStream, and quote systems were not affected by the problem.

1/31/04 Saturday 1:30 pm ET- This week in stocks- summary; Monday's market gets underway in mixed mode. DOW and S&P slightly positive, NASDAQ slightly negative- all within 0.2 percent of unchanged. With indices resting over the lunch hour, they continued the trek higher on good news from existing home sales data, and, anticipation that the Fed will not change their bias on rates. Only thing stopping the market-engine was the closing bell. Market puts on an after lunch special- rally continued to the close on Fed stance of leaving the Fed funds rate accommodative. DJIA surged 1.3 percent, S&P by 1.2 percent, NASDAQ by 1.4 percent. Tuesday the market sank on good economical data and ahead of the FOMC. Profit takers come in and took a little back from Monday's rally and wait for the next move. Indices continue trending lower on moderate volume. DJIA and S&P gave back more than half of Monday's gains, while the NASDAQ has gave back all of Monday's 1.4 percent. DJIA and S&P nearly gave back Monday's bounty- NASDAQ did- and more. Ahead of FOMC, buyers stay on the sidelines. Last attempt at a comeback  failed, as the indices end at the low of the session. Wednesday the market reversed direction and moved higher on good earnings reports and ahead of the Fed policy statement later that afternoon. The DJIA posted a 1/2 percent gain, the S&P and NASDAQ was up by 0.4 percent. Fed kept the Fed funds rate at 1 percent but changed the policy statement to a more aggressive stance. No longer will the policy of the FOMC be to keep rates where they are today, but the FOMC introduced the word "patient" in terms of their willingness to raise rates when they believe inflation is at risk. The U.S. stock market gets slammed by the interpretation of "patient". Major indices dive after the Fed decides to keep the Federal funds rate at 1 percent but says it can be patient in keeping policy accommodative. The DOW ends down 1.3 percent, S&P ends lower by 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ was off by 1.8 percent. The Barometer models suggested no further forecast change beyond the bias change. The bias was changed to caution just prior to the close, because of a failed attempt to recover from the sell off, among other Barometer technical reasons. The Barometer leading indicator did not trigger an alert, meaning that it did not find any data to suggests that the sentiment had changed- the leading indicator at its "home position" of neutral indicates the positive environment that the forecast says is in place, is in place. Thursday,  the morning after the Fed, sees the indices holding close to flat, with the DJIA gaining 0.2 percent, the S&P flat, and the NASDAQ off by 0.9 percent. At midday, the DJIA continued to slowly trend off the morning high towards unchanged, where you could find the S&P- flat all morning. The NASDAQ tried to turnaround but couldn't and was continuing to show a better than 1 percent loss. Did the Fed do it again? The FOMC December meeting minutes were released at about the time the indices made a run for positive. The DOW started its move off the low of the session and could have got some positive momentum by the release of the notes from the previous FOMC meeting. The DOW ended with a positive 0.4 percent, the S&P gained 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ was off by 0.4 percent- but well off the lows of the session. Friday trading got off to a negative start, helped a little by a slower growing economy report, as the GDP for the 4th quarter came in at 4 percent. Indices end the day off the mark- DOW and S&P well off the lows- NASDAQ flat most of the day. AD line slightly positive.

1/31/04 Saturday 3:50 pm ET- The forecast- week in review. On Wednesday, just prior to the close of the regular session,  the Barometer models suggested that a new trend, possible short-lived, was developing. The upward positive momentum of the indices appeared to have subsided. In response, the bias was changed to caution from the positive stance that it held since it was last changed on December 12. The forecast continues to indicate a generally positive market environment with a cautionary bias. ##  The leading indicator, last changed on December 11, continues at its neutral stance awaiting to alert on the next market sentiment change.

2/1/04 Sunday 11:15 am ET- Headlines- One Liners; GDP slows in fourth-quarter to 4 percent from 8.2 percent in third-quarter. Stocks moved lower Friday in response to the news. NYSE to consider electronic trading- make it more efficient?  Midwest businesses expanded in January with a PMI of 65.9- compared to December PMI of 61.2. A reading above 50 indicates business are expanding.

2/1/04 Sunday  12:55 pm ET- Important week for earnings and the economy. Cisco Systems scheduled to report Q2 earnings after the close on Tuesday- analysts and  traders eager for their 2004 outlook. On the earnings front, both ISM manufacturing and services will be reported. Also this week jobless claims and payroll data, among others. The market will have to get some pretty impressive earnings and economical data to get them to bid stocks higher.

2/1/04 Sunday  1:43 pm ET- To reiterate the forecast- The Barometer market forecast indicates a positive market environment with a cautionary bias- ##  the bias was changed from positive, on Wednesday, to caution. This means, according to Barometer methodology, it is expected the stock market, represented by the major indices, to be generally positive environment but the forecast is biased- by caution. The bias leads the forecast and when the bias changes to a particular status, the forecast could follow. The thinking today is, if the market doesn't display a more positive environment soon, the forecast will be changed from positive to caution. This week could be pivotal.

2/1/04 Sunday  4:16 pm ET- Headlines- One Liners; Barometer market forecast stays at positive but with caution. ChevronTexaco profit nearly doubles. Net income for the quarter reaches 1.7 billion, 7.2 billion for the year - benefits from oil and gas prices. Cisco Systems report Q2 on Tuesday. Traders and analysts want to know Cisco's outlook- corporate spending is expected to ramp up this year- Cisco most likely will move the market.  

 

1/30/04 Friday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral, probably negative open.

10:34 am ET- GDP increased at an annual rate of 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003, compared to 8.2 percent reported in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

11:09 am ET- Friday trading gets off to a negative start helped a little by a slower growing economy report, as the GDP for the 4th quarter came in at 4 percent. The indices hang relatively close to the flat line with the DOW, improving a little, but still off by 1/2 percent, the S&P off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ near unchanged. The market forecast continues to indicate positive but with a cautionary bias.

12:26 pm ET- Midway through noon-hour, the major indexes move sideways on the negative side, laying the groundwork for a possible worsening of the trading environment in afternoon trading. With little great news to move buyers to bid stocks higher and the last trade of the month, could give way to lower prices. The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias- but is subject to change depending on how the market carries itself the remainder of the day.

1:59 pm ET- One-Liners; GDP slows in fourth-quarter to 4 percent from 8.2 percent in third-quarter. Stocks move lower on the news. NYSE considers electronic trading- wouldn't that be dull. Midwest businesses expanded in January with a PMI of 65.9- compared to December PMI of 61.2. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

3:29 pm ET- With nearly half-hour to go in January trade, the popular averages continue choppy movement sideways. As frequent as the averages get near unchanged, they sell-off to bottom out and move back up. The AD line sees a very slight advantage to the advancing issues- nearly 1 to 1 ratio. The Barometer models will, once again, determine if any adjustments need to be applied to the forecast. The last model run is at 9:30 pm ET this evening and any change to the forecast will be posted, normally by 10:30.

4:40 pm ET- Indices end the day off the mark- DOW and S&P well off the lows- NASDAQ flat most of the day. AD line slightly positive. Barometer models will close out January at 9:30 pm ET this evening- any change to the forecast will be posted, normally by 10:30. For now, the market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment with a cautionary bias.  

 

1/29/04 Thursday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:44 am ET- As of week ending January 24, the figure for adjusted initial jobless claims is 342,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average is 346,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 345,250, according to the Department of Labor.

11:02 am ET- Market mixed in midmorning trade. Good earnings has the DOW positive, but profit taking still going on at the NASDAQ. The morning after the Fed sees the indices holding close to flat, with the DJIA gaining 0.2 percent, the S&P flat, and the NASDAQ off by 0.9 percent. The bias was changed just prior to the close yesterday and now read caution. The Barometer forecast indicates a positive environment but with caution.

11:45 am ET- One-Liners; Martha Stewart back in court today. Exxon-Mobil quarterly exceeds expectations. Barometer bias changed to caution but forecast remains positive.

12:30 pm ET- At 12:30, the DJIA continues to slowly trend off the morning high towards unchanged, where you will find the S&P- flat. The NASDAQ, trying to turnaround, continues to show a better than 1 percent loss- trading could pick up after lunch. DJIA slightly positive with a 0.1 percent gain, the S&P near flat, and the NASDAQ off by 1.1 percent.

2:37 pm ET- With a little over an hour to go, the indices continue to show weakness. The DJIA gave up positive territory and joined the other major indexes in their trek lower. The DJIA and S&P are off by 0.2 percent and the NASDAQ is off by 1.3 percent.

4:36 pm ET corrected- Did the Fed do it again? The FOMC December meeting minutes were released at about the time the indices made a run for positive. The DOW started its move off the low of the session and could have got some positive momentum by the release of the notes from the previous FOMC meeting. The DOW ended with a positive 0.4 percent, the S&P gained 1/2 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.4 percent- but well off the lows of the session.  

6:06 pm ET- One-Liners; Gold falls below $400.- gold at $399 in 24-hour market. FOMC December minutes released by the Fed- Indices advance. Nortel exceeds Q4 expectation. Pixar ends talks with Disney.  

 

1/28/04 Wednesday-

9:21 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:09 am ET- Market reverses direction and moves higher Wednesday on good earnings reports and ahead of the Fed policy statement later this afternoon. The DJIA up by 1/2 percent, the S&P and NASDAQ up by 0.4 percent.

11:44 am ET- Last evenings Barometer model run (the 9:30 run) indicated no change in the market forecast- there was early indications yesterday that the negative action in the market would trigger at least a bias change- but it didn't. However, the indices (DOW, S&P, and the NASDAQ) will be watched closely today for any change that might suggest a trend change in the markets. For now, the market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment with the caveat that it could change during today's regular session.

12:25 pm ET- One-Liners; Fed to issue no change in rates statement later this afternoon. Fed funds stands at 1 percent. New home sales (units sold) figures fall in December. Durable goods (items that last 3-5 years) unchanged in December. Economist  expected an increase.

1:51 pm ET- Market positive ahead of the Fed. Indices slightly positive all  within 0.3 percent- Fed scheduled to make policy announcement at 2:15 pm ET.

2:55 pm ET- Fed keeps the Fed funds rate at 1 percent but changes the policy statement to a more aggressive stance. No longer will the policy of the FOMC be to keep rates where they are today, but the FOMC introduced the word "patient" in terms of their willingness to raise rates when they believe inflation is at risk. "With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy".  Market reaction is negative, with the indices showing a 1 percent loss- but since has improved a little. The Barometer models will watch for a firming trend- at this point the market negative reaction is seen as a "knee-jerk" reaction to the change in policy verbiage.

3:54 pm ET- The Barometer bias has changed to caution from positive. "The Barometer models suggest that a new trend, possible short-lived, is developing".

4:35 pm ET- The U.S. stock market gets slammed by the interpretation of "patient". Major indices dive after the Fed decides to keep the Federal funds rate at 1 percent but says it can be patient in keeping policy accommodative. The DOW ends down 1.3 percent, S&P ends lower by 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 1.8 percent. Barometer models will run to determine any further changes to the forecast.

6:08 pm ET- The eagle has landed. The Federal Reserve FOMC has changed their stance and laying the groundwork for increasing the Federal funds rate at some future date. The verbiage change in their policy statement is to get the stock market and everyone else ready for the day they decide to begin bumping rates higher. The initial reaction from the market was decisively negative- will it carry over to Thursday's session is the question. The Barometer models last run at 9:30 pm ET tonight will give us a clue to where we go from here. Any further changes to the forecast will be posted at some point after 9:30.

11:07 pm ET- All the models have completed. Data suggests no further forecast change at this time. The next couple of days of market performance could indicate if there is to be a market direction change. The bias was changed to caution just prior to the close, because of a failed attempt to recover from the sell off today, among other Barometer technical reasons. The Barometer leading indicator did not trigger an alert, meaning that it did not find any data to suggests that the sentiment has changed- the leading indicator at its "home position" of neutral indicates the positive environment that the forecast says is in place, is in place. No forecast is 100 percent accurate- always use other data and metrics before making a trading decision.  

 

1/27/04 Tuesday-

9:20 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:50 am ET- Market sinks on good economical data and ahead of the FOMC. Profit takers come in and take a little back from Monday's rally and wait for the next move. DJIA and S&P down by 0.2 percent, the NASDAQ down by 0.4 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate a generally positive environment.

11:32 am ET- Consumer Confidence Index rose in January to 96.8, up from 91.7 in December, according to The Conference Board.

12:05 pm ET- One-Liners; Martha Stewart trial begins with opening statements this morning. Amazon.com reports Q4 after the close.

1:12 pm ET- Indices continue trending lower on moderate volume. DJIA and S&P give back more than half of yesterday's gains, while the NASDAQ has given back all of Monday's 1.4 percent. Buyers step back and await the Fed decision on rates- it would be a big shock if the Fed changes rates. It is widely expected there will be no rate or bias change. Barometer models will watch closely during afternoon trading for data that could change the forecast. The market forecast continues to indicate positive- but could change.

3:27 pm ET- In late afternoon trading, stocks try for a comeback by breaking the downward trend but had no follow-through. Buyers are not stepping back into the market, just yet and may not until Wednesday afternoon- FOMC is expected to announce no rate change. The more important bias of the Fed will be the focus for traders as the Fed has been maintaining to keep interest rates accommodative. Traders could also sell the news when it comes out. Expect a correction or pullback in the near future, as the indices have come along way in 11-months. It is hard to forecast how traders will react to the Fed on Wednesday but the leading indicator shows a very positive environment.

4:40 pm ET- DJIA and S&P nearly give back yesterday's bounty- NASDAQ did- and more. Ahead of FOMC buyers stay on the sidelines. Last attempt at a comeback  failed, as the indices end at the low of the session. DOW off by 0.9 percent, S&P off by 1 percent, and the NASDAQ hit hard with a loss of 1.8 percent.

5:44 pm ET- The Barometer close models indicate a possible problem brewing. The indices were unable to break the downward trend this afternoon and that, plus the leading indicator show a slight trend break. We will not have a full picture until the evening models run, but it looks like we could get a more negative sentiment from traders and investors in the near term. We will not reiterate the forecast at this point until we get more data. The last model run is at 9:30 pm ET. Any forecast change will be posted after that time.

10:52 pm ET- The evening Barometer models have completed and the data suggests no forecast change at this time. However, the indices (DOW, S&P, and the NASDAQ) will be watched closely for a continuation of the downward trend. The morning models could trigger a bias change if the fundamentals dictate. For now, the market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment with the caveat that it could change Wednesday during the regular session.  

 

1/26/04 Monday-

9:18 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:41 am ET- Market gets underway in mixed mode. DOW and S&P slightly positive, NASDAQ slightly negative- all within 0.2 percent of unchanged. Unless big news gets traders attention, don't look for much movement from the indices until the FOMC meeting is over Wednesday. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive.

11:24 am ET- One-Liners; FOMC meets this week to decide on rates. Look for Fed to leave funds rate at 1 percent. Toyota passes Ford- now is in second place. Kodak to revamp business model- film is out.

2:27 pm ET- With indices resting over the lunch hour, they continued the trek higher on good news from existing home sales data, and, anticipation that the Fed will not change their bias on rates- Fed wants to keep the Fed funds rate low. Traders and investors bid stocks higher in mid-afternoon trade. The DJIA is up by 0.7 percent, both S&P and NASDAQ positive by 0.5 percent on moderate volume.

3:18 pm ET- With little in way of economical data this week; consumer confidence, home sales, durable goods- the focus will be on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. It is widely expected the Fed funds rate to remain at 1 percent. The important thing from the meeting will be the verbiage- the Feds stance on keeping rates low for an extended period of time. Market could get volatile if the Fed deviates from previous verbiage.

4:40 pm ET- Only thing stopping the market-engine is the closing bell. Market puts on an after lunch special- rally continues on Fed stance of leaving the Fed funds rate accommodative. DJIA surges by 1.3 percent, S&P by 1.2 percent, NASDAQ by 1.4 percent. ## The Barometer market forecast, unchanged since December 22, continues to indicate a positive market. But forecast are always subject to change- last model run of the day is at 9:30. Any change will be posted well prior to market open.

6:10 pm ET- One-Liners;  Martha Stewart jury has been selected. Existing home sales ramp-up to new highs. Stock Market takes-off after lunch and closes at 30-month high. Alan Greenspan says jobs market should improve- companies to add jobs. Barometer leading indicator shows a continuing advance for the major indices- a generally positive market environment.  

 

Weekend-

1/24/04 Saturday 11:59 am ET- The market ends slightly negative for the shortened week. With high hopes that the economy will continue to churn and corporate America can continue to turn profits, quarter after quarter, and with real high hopes that the Fed will keep rates low, has traders and investors gobbling up stocks- with the market resting now and then. The trading week started on Tuesday, Monday was a holiday, and saw a mixed market, as traders pulled back  a bit to reevaluate the Dollar impact on multinationals (DOW stocks) earnings and ahead of the State of the Union speech. Market ended mixed- it appeared funds were flowing back into the tech-heavy NASDAQ.  DJIA ended down by 0.7 percent, S&P was off by 0.1 percent, but the NASDAQ gained 0.4 percent. Wednesday, DOW rockets to new high and drags the S&P along with it- meanwhile, the NASDAQ was struggling to make the unchanged line. Stocks surged on Treasury Secretary John Snow's comment that the Labor Department may have understated jobs growth- 1,000 jobs added in December but economists expected 100,000 plus jobs. With that positive uncertainty, treasuries got turned around and stocks surged. Solid performance by non-tech stocks lifted the DJIA and the S&P and took the majority of stocks along for the ride. Thursday DOW choppy most of the day- but positive. The S&P and NASDAQ under water, but tried to trend upward to unchanged. Very little news to move traders and investors- Microsoft earnings wait-and-see attitude. Lazy close- NASDAQ ended 1.1 percent down, DJIA even for the day, and the S&P 500 0.3 percent down. Advancing issues gave way to decliners by 1.2:1. Friday Indices try to make way- back to unchanged, but comeback stalls ending the week in negative territory. It was important for the major indexes to at least break the downward trend of the day to avoid a Barometer forecast change. It has been impressive, the market has come along ways in the new year and since March. Traders for now may hold off until the FOMC meeting- market could use the rest.  

 

1/23/04 Friday-

9:28 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:00 am ET- Back to choppy trading. DOW and S&P within 0.1 percent of flat and the NASDAQ has run-up a 1/2 percent gain. The Barometer bias models are continuing to look for a firm counter trend- until one is found, the forecast continues to indicate a positive market environment.

2:55 pm ET- The popular averages continue their trek downward. Amid no news and awaiting the FOMC meeting, bidding stocks higher, for now, has come to an end. The bias models are closely watching the trend and especially during the last hour of trade. At times the volatility tends to pickup near the close and it will be important for the averages to return- back to the unchanged line if we are to avert a possible Barometer bias change. For now, the forecast indicates a positive environment.

4:45 pm ET- Indices try to make way- back to unchanged, but comeback stalls ending the week in negative territory. It was important for the major indexes to break the downward trend of the day to avoid a Barometer forecast change. Models will run later this evening to determine if a forecast change will take place- any change will be posted after that time.  

 

1/22/04 Thursday-

9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral probably positive open.

10:53 am ET- For the week ending January 17, the advance figure for initial jobless claims is 341,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average is 344,500, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week, seasonally adjusted, according to the Department of Labor.

12:00 pm ET- Off the lows of the morning, the major averages continue a sluggish trend upward towards the unchanged line with the NASDAQ notably lagging. The DJIA is nearly unchanged, the S&P off by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.7 percent. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive.

2:27 pm ET- Dow choppy but positive, S&P and NASDAQ still under water, but very slowly trending upwards to the unchanged line. Very little news to move traders and investors- Microsoft wait and see attitude. The DJIA up by 0.1 percent, the S&P down by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ down by 1/2 percent.

4:35 pm ET- Microsoft tops 10 billion in revenue- a record. MSFT reports earnings and beats estimates. Stock up in after hours.

5:29 pm ET- Lazy close- NASDAQ ends 1.1 percent down, DJIA even for the day, and the S&P 500 0.3 percent down. Advancing issues gives way to decliners by 1.2:1. Fridays market will be a good gauge on market sentiment- see if Microsoft's good earnings and outlook can spur buyers, otherwise, we could see a bias change. Currently the Barometer bias is positive.

10:25 pm ET- Microsoft gets mixed reviews as it reports revenue growth but unexpected drop in unearned revenue- not yet earned money from sales and services (future contracts). It seems investors had the same reaction last quarter when reporting a larger than expected drop in unearned revenue- shares were off by nearly 3 percent in Thursday's after hours market. This may be a knee-jerk reaction- we'll see if this has an affect on Friday's market.  

 

1/21/04 Wednesday-

9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11:19 am ET- NASDAQ leads the market lower- DJIA and S&P are outperforming tech stocks but are in negative territory. The Barometer models are running to gather midmorning market data. At this point the bias data (from the models that are running) suggests that a bias change could take affect later today if market fundamentals do not improve. That means the bias could change to neutral if the indices continue to degrade. Currently, the Barometer forecast indicate positive ## with a positive bias.

1:00 pm ET- DOW surges off the lows of the morning to post a 0.4 percent gain, while the NASDAQ, still in negative territory, continues to trend towards unchanged- still down by 0.7 percent. It will be somewhat important for the NASDAQ to firm up and continue the trend higher and for the indices to end the day neutral to positive in order to avert a bias change.

3:14 pm ET- DOW rockets to new high and drags the S&P along with it- meanwhile, NASDAQ is struggling to make unchanged. Stocks surged on Treasury Secretary John Snow's comment that the Labor Department may have understated jobs growth- 1,000 jobs added in December but economists expected 100,000 plus jobs. With that positive uncertainty, treasuries got turned around and stocks surged. At 3:05, the DOW was up by 0.9 percent, S&P up by 0.7 percent, and the NASDAQ off by 0.2 percent.

4:44 pm ET- Market ends positive- NASDAQ takes a timeout as some of the tech stocks get sold. Barometer models indicate no change to the forecast as the DOW and S&P help boost model metrics. The broader market ended nearly even at 1.2:1 advancing issues over declining issues. Close models are running (and again later tonight) but for now the Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive.

6:10 pm ET- Solid performance by non-tech stocks today lifted the DJIA and the S&P and took the majority of stocks along for the ride. Thursday will see more economical data- Jobless claims and leading indicators. Microsoft will report quarterly earnings after the close Thursday- good earnings and outlook could help the tech sector Friday. Meanwhile, the Barometer chart continues to show the market advance into bear territory.  

 

1/20/04 Tuesday-

9:28 am ET- Look for a positive start.

11:06 am ET- After a short positive stay above unchanged, the indices have continued to trend downward- stair stepping to new lows. Good earnings have done little for traders and investors in bidding stock higher. As of 10:45 am ET, the DOW was down by 1/2 percent, the S&P down by 0.2 percent, and the NASDAQ down by 0.2 percent. The market forecast continues to indicate positive with a positive bias, for now- the bias most likely would be the first indicator to change if the models detect a change in trading sentiment.

2:30 pm ET- Mixed market as traders pullback a bit to reevaluate Dollar impact on multinationals (DOW stocks) earnings and ahead of the State of the Union speech tonight. DJIA was posting a 0.4 percent decline, the NASDAQ 0.3 percent gain, and the S&P was unchanged.

4:40 pm ET- Market ends mixed ahead of more earnings and State of the Union speech. Appears funds are flowing back into the tech-heavy NASDAQ from "blue chips" the DOW on concerns of the Dollars affect on earnings going forward. DJIA ends down by 0.7 percent, S&P off by 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ gains 0.4 percent.

7:09 pm ET- The outlook, according to the Barometer, continues to look good. An impressive advance into bear territory indicates the strength of the market. The leading indicator shows a favorable environment- the Barometer plot continues to advance on the back of the positive boundary. At some point the market will correct and pullback, just when that will be is not clear- the further the market advances without a pullback could cause a prolong negative environment- summer month are normally not favorable to stocks. For now, the forecast continues to indicate positive.  

 

Weekend-

1/17/04 Saturday 12:08 pm ET- Weekly summary: Monday got off to a choppy start on continued concerns over the employment picture- lack of creating jobs. A positive end to the day as the DJIA tries to catch up with the rest of market. The NASDAQ ended with 1.2 percent gain, S&P with a 1/2 percent gain, and the DOW with 0.3 percent gain. Advancing issues over declining issues by 1.8:1. Tuesday mixed market midmorning as the indices hung close to the unchanged line- lack of news, Intel and Yahoo on the earnings deck had buyers on hold. The major indexes closed with minor losses- the Barometer saw the loss as a minor reaction to non market-moving news. Wednesday, in anticipation of outstanding earnings from the likes of Intel, Yahoo and an upbeat Beige Book report, traders and investors gobbled up stocks as the DOW ended with a 1.1 percent gain, S&P with a 0.8 percent gain, and the NASDAQ with a 0.7 percent gain. After the close, Intel and Yahoo reported good earnings but Intel's outlook on 1Q was soft. Investors took that bit of news as a sell signal. Intel and most other tech stocks sold off in after hours trading. Thursday, thanks to some good news; J. P. Morgan acquisition of Bank One, IBM earnings and outlook, the market was saved from a possible sell off. A flat, neutral end to a day that could have seen minus signs everywhere. A limited "sell the news" kept the market nearly where it started the day, with the DOW gaining 0.3 percent, S&P gained 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.1 percent. A and D line dead even. Friday stocks got off to a positive start on good economical and earnings reports, but midmorning had turned mixed with the DJIA and S&P sinking just below unchanged and the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent. Popular averages ended the day positive in a positive market environment- DOW ended with a 0.4 percent gain, S&P with a 0.7 percent gain, and the outperforming NASDAQ ended with a 1.5 percent gain- so much for bad news. The market Barometer, throughout the week, had indicated a positive market environment- no changes were made to the forecast.

1/18/04 Sunday 1:27 pm ET- U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday, January 19, 2004, to observe the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. Market will reopen on Tuesday at 9:30 am ET.  

 

1/16/04 Friday-

9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

10:52 am ET- Stocks get off to a positive start Friday on good economical data and earnings reports, but has since turned mixed with the DJIA and S&P sinking just below unchanged and the NASDAQ up by 0.6 percent. The Barometer continues to indicate positive- models are looking for a trend change- nothing found at this time.

2:49 pm ET- NASDAQ  continues a steady advance tacking on a 1.1 percent rise, the S&P choppy but advancing by 0.4 percent, and the lagging DOW near unchanged but with a sight gain. Good economical data and good earnings continues to fire up buyers.

4:40 pm ET- Popular averages end positive in a positive market environment- DOW ended with a 0.4 percent gain, S&P with a 0.7 percent gain, and the outperforming NASDAQ ended with a 1.5 percent gain. The market forecast, last changed on December 22, continues to indicate a positive market environment.

4:57 pm ET- U.S. stock market will be closed Monday, January 19, 2004 to observe the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. Market will reopen on Tuesday at 9:30 am ET.  

 

1/15/04 Thursday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a mixed open. DOW positive and NASDAQ negative at the open. Could see rotation from tech stocks into other sectors. Thank you IBM!

10:59 am ET- For the week ending January 10, the advance figure for adjusted initial claims is 343,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous weeks revised figure of 354,000. The 4-week moving average is 347,500, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous weeks revised average of 350,500.

11:40 am ET- Thanks to some good news; J. P. Morgan acquisition of Bank One, IBM earnings and outlook, we saved (for now) a huge sell off. The Barometer models are analyzing market data to determine any possible forecast change. The Bias could change but a firm trend is needed to trigger a status change. Afternoon trading to the close of trade is usually where the best data is for bias analysis. For now, the forecast continues to indicate a generally positive environment.

12:40 pm ET- IBM (IBM) reported fourth quarter 2003 diluted earnings per common share of $1.56 from continuing operations compared with diluted earnings of $1.11 per share in the same period of 2002, an increase of 41 percent... more...

2:25 pm ET- Market recovers- but off the highs of the afternoon. DJIA and the NASDAQ up by 0.3 percent and the S&P up by 0.4 percent. Advancing issues slightly ahead of declining issues- nearly a dead heat. If the positive environment holds up for the remainder of the session, it will be a coup, of sorts, for the bulls- it would show the strength of the March'03 rally.

4:40 pm ET corrected- A flat, neutral end to a day that could have seen a sell off. A limited "sell the news" kept the market nearly where it started the day, with the DOW gaining 0.3 percent, S&P gained 0.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ended lower by 0.1 percent. A and D line dead even. The bias models did not detect a firm trend, so it stays at positive.

6:10 pm ET- The current outlook, according to the Barometer, continues to look good. An impressive advance into bear territory indicates the strength of the market. The leading indicator continues to show a favorable environment- the Barometer plot continues to advance on the back of the positive boundary. At some point the market will correct and pullback, just when that will be is not clear- the further the market advances without a pullback could cause a prolong negative environment- summer month are normally not favorable to stocks. For now, the forecast continues to indicate positive.  

 

1/14/04 Wednesday-

9:27 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:38 am ET- Stocks positive this morning as the popular averages are in the green by nearly 1/2 percent. Anticipation that Intel and Yahoo will report stellar earnings and give a prosperous outlook for 2004 continues to fuel this market. The Barometer models, ran last evening, gave no data points that this leg of the March 2003 rally is over. According to the Barometer models, for the forecast to continue to indicate positive, today's market needs to be positive and end with gains. It is also important that Intel report a "blow out" 4thQ. Additionally important is the outlook forecast from both Intel and Yahoo- any inference that the 2004 outlook is not going to be a stellar year for earnings and growth could setoff a negative environment. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive.

1:12 pm ET- The Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods increased .3 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. The increase followed a .3 percent decline in November and a .8 percent increase in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

2:49 pm ET- The Beige Book, Economic Factors, reports from Federal Reserve Districts suggest that the nation's economy has continued to improve since the last survey. The strongest report came from the San Francisco district, which said its economy expanded soundly. Most other districts also gave quite favorable reports…

4:33 pm ET- In anticipation of outstanding earnings from the likes of Intel, Yahoo and others, traders and investors gobbled up stocks today as the DOW ended with a 1.1 percent gain, S&P with a .8 percent gain, and the NASDAQ with a .7 percent gain.

5:12 pm ET- Intel Corporation (INTC) reported fourth quarter revenue of $8.74 billion, up 12 percent sequentially and up 22 percent year-over-year. Fourth quarter revenue was slightly higher than the previous record of $8.73 billion set in the third quarter of 2000…

5:55 pm ET- Yahoo (YHOO) today reported 4th. quarter revenue of $663.9 million compared to $285.8 million, same period 2002. Gross profit of $443.1 million compared to $243.5 million, same period 2002...

10:06 pm ET corrected- Little doubt that the stock market will open down Thursday as investors take Intel earnings outlook as a sell signal. The Barometer models require full session market reaction in order to develop the metrics that go into the forecast. After the initial sell off, which is expected in reaction to the after hours market, the first thing the models will determine is if there should be a bias change. If the bias changes to neutral (currently is positive) then most likely that will be the first Barometer step in determining any further changes to the forecast. Caution should be used for the open.  

 

1/13/04 Tuesday-

9:23  am ET- Look for a neutral open- could dip negative near the open.

10:44  am ET- Mixed market this morning as the market indices hang close to the unchanged line. With the lack of news and Intel and Yahoo on the earnings deck, traders and investors will do a wait and see- probably will not make any major position changes until Wednesday. The Barometer bias models are unable to capture a firm trend and continues to hold the positive stance. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive.

12:10  pm ET- Midday and the market averages continue trending down. DOW and S&P off by .8 percent, the NASDAQ is off by 1.2 percent. Indices began trending downward after Greenspan Berlin speech was released by the Fed.

5:10  pm ET- Stock market major indexes close with minor losses today- you have to expect a down day or two every once and a while. When market-moving news is scarce, traders get edgy and react to little things such as the report that SAP may not earn as much in 2004 as first thought. The decline in the indices came as the Greenspan text was released by the Fed- that was before Greenspan began his speech. So, reports that Greenspan or SAP news  caused the loss in the market is not verifiable. If the market turns in a negative day Wednesday and Intel doesn't "blow away" earnings forecasts, market could begin a correction or a pullback- stocks are lofty. The Barometer sees today's loss as a minor reaction to non market-moving news. The key to a correction or pullback will come Wednesday if the negativism carries over.

6:05  pm ET- Market models will be running tonight to determine any changes to the forecast. Even with today's loss, the leading indicator chart looks ok, but the metrics of the models have not yet been studied. The last run of the evening is at 9:30 ET and if there is any changes they will be publish well before Wednesdays trade. The market forecast continues to indicate positive- but last models have not yet been run- changes could occur later this evening.  

 

1/12/04 Monday-

9:22  am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start. Chance that market could turn negative shortly after the open.

10:43  am ET- Monday gets off to a choppy start on continued concerns over the employment picture- lack of creating jobs. Indices started out ok, but half-hour after the open, the market became negative. Buying on the dips seems to be in vogue, as the indices once again turned positive after a short stay underwater. At 10:44 the major indexes were slightly above unchanged with the NASDAQ leading the way.

11:47  am ET- The forecast models are running to determine any bias change. Last several days have indicated that some of the steam in the market engine may be on the wane. It is possible for the bias to change to a more neutral stance, given the lack of upside momentum. Knowing also, Wednesday, several economical data reports are due out and Intel- Yahoo report 4Q earnings. So trading could go sideways until then. The bias can change hour by hour depending on the volatility- the bias can be as volatile as the market. For now, the market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

1:15  pm ET- DJIA and S&P continue choppy movement while the tech-heavy NASDAQ, off the highs of the morning, continues in  positive territory. We could see this type of sideways movement through Tuesday, as traders wait on more economical data and earnings on Wednesday. DOW and S&P are nearly unchanged while the NASDAQ is positive by 1/2 percent.

2:41  pm ET- With little over an hour to go, the DJIA continues moving nearly horizontal, while the S&P, doing better, sports a .3 percent gain, as the ever popular tech-heavy NASDAQ has accumulated a .7 percent gain. It's obvious until news of one sort or another comes along, stocks will be slow to move. The bias models continue sorting through the data to determine any possible change- none yet.

4:51  pm ET- A positive end to the day as the DJIA tries to catch up with the market. The NASDAQ ended with 1.2 percent gain, S&P with a 1/2 percent gain, and the DOW with .3 percent gain. Advancing issues over declining issues by 1.8:1.

6:16  pm ET- Besides export and import price data release Tuesday, there are no other economical reports for traders and investors to act on. Could see a slow day Tuesday as not much to do but wait on Intel and Yahoo to report Wednesday- although the market will get PPI and beige book to mull in the morning. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive.  

 

Weekend-

1/10/04 Saturday 12:28  pm ET- The week in review saw Monday continue the March 2003 rally as optimism abounded that the first half of 2004 will be nearly as good as 2003. The DOW closed with a 1.3 percent gain, S&P with a 1.2 percent gain, and the tech-weighted  NASDAQ ended with over a 2 percent gain. Tuesday and Wednesday saw the DOW and S&P nearly unchanged for the two days, but the NASDAQ continued the rally with a two-day gain of 1.5 percent. With little economical data, traders sought tech stocks over just about everything else. Thursday saw the upward momentum continue on a mixed jobless report. A positive start to the day on mixed jobless data but an upbeat forecast from Nokia got everyone's attention. The all important nonfarm payroll data would be the focus in afternoon trade- traders and analysts expected jobs payroll report to indicate that Americans were storming back to work. Friday and the jobs payroll report was a major disappointment and a sell off of sorts began. Midday trade on Friday and, like always, the indices came trending back only to see the sellers step in and take the averages down even further than the morning sell off. The DJIA and S&P ended nearly where they started the week- slight gain. The NASDAQ, continuing to outperform, ended with a weekly healthy gain.

1/11/04 Sunday 11:35  am ET- Somewhat light this week on economical data- CPI, jobless initial claims, retail sales, PPI, beige book are some that will be looked at as traders and investors sort out the meaningful from the not-so-meaningful to try and get a heads-up on any fundamental change in the markets. Also on deck is fourth quarter earnings as some reporting this week could move the markets. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate a mostly positive environment but models are looking for a trend change that could come this week.

1/11/04 Sunday 13:13  pm ET- Earnings season gets started this week with some potential market movers to announce their quarterly results. Many analysts, traders, and investors believe the fourth quarter to be one of the best in many years- very high expectation that company's will either beat estimates or come-in at the high end of the range. Since most of the anticipated fourth quarter is already priced into the market, selling could occur if reports come in worse that expected or even as expected. Could be a volatile week. Keep an eye out for market movers- Intel and Yahoo report Wednesday and GE on Friday- among others throughout the week.

1/11/04 Sunday 4:26  pm ET correction- SEC Chairman William H. Donaldson attended the Mutual Fund Directors Forum policy conference... snippet deleted...  

 

1/9/04 Friday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a negative start on payroll data report- well under expectations- traders could question validity of data.

10:37 am ET- Employment was nearly unchanged in December adding 1,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, while the unemployment rate, at 5.7 percent, continues to trend lower, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor.

10:40 am ET- A sell off at the open turns into a slow trend upward to the unchanged line as traders shrug off a disappointing jobs payroll report- validity of report is being questioned. The DJIA off by 1/2 percent, S&P off by .3 percent, and the NASDAQ is near unchanged. ## The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

11:41 am ET- Approaching midpoint of trade, sees the averages continuing to make headway- NASDAQ positive by .2 percent, outperforms again today. Later today we will see the reaction, if any, to the latest economical data. Don't be surprised if market discounts the jobs payroll report.

3:40 pm ET- Market reacts to jobs payroll data by continuing the early morning sell off. With stocks at lofty levels, traders and investor decide to sell- NASDAQ relents to the pressure. With less than 1/2 hour to the close, DJIA down 1.1 percent, S&P off by .8 percent, and the NASDAQ .6 percent.

4:40 pm ET- Market sells off moderately in reaction to jobs payroll report released this morning. Reaction only, not a change in the fundamentals of the market- not yet any how. Monday's market will give clues to how traders feel about the economy- a one day sell-off, of minor proportions, doesn't change the positive momentum of the general marketplace- follow through Monday could change that, thou. The Barometer bias continues to indicate positive- until a firm trend change takes place, the forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.  

 

1/8/04 Thursday-

9:24 am ET- Look for a positive start on jobless data.

10:45 am ET- For the week ending January 3rd., adjusted initial claims were 353,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's figure of 339,000. The 4-week moving average is 350,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's average of 355,750, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

11:25 am ET- A positive start to the day on mixed jobless data and an upbeat forecast from Nokia. The all important nonfarm payroll data (scheduled to be released Friday) was anticipated this morning that sees the indices currently holding small gains- S&P has trended lower to near the unchanged line. ## The forecast for the market (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ) continues to indicate a positive environment- the models continue searching for clues to any bias or leading trend changes.

12:42 pm ET corrected- S&P finally pulls above unchanged-line as the indices slowly trend upward through NY lunchtime. The indices are within 1/2 percent of unchanged- NASDAQ leads the pack- S&P lags.

3:00 pm ET- The major indexes continue their slow trend upward on the back of retail sales, Nokia, and jobless reports. The DOW is higher by .4 percent, the S&P is flat for the day, and the NASDAQ continues to outperform with a .8 percent gain. The Barometer market forecast, unchanged since December 22nd., continues to indicate positive.

4:40 pm ET- A slow positive trend (on improving volume) for the averages all day- DJIA ends .6 percent gain, S&P with a 1/2 percent gain, and the out-performer NASDAQ with a 1.1 percent gain. All on various good news this morning and money inflows for funds- January effect.

6:24 pm ET- Another positive gainer for the books- lets do it again Friday. The nonfarm payroll report is a favorite of traders- expect the market to move on the data. As of now, the market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment going forward- but forecasts are always subject to change. The models, once again, will run tonight to determine any changes. The first change that can be expected, at some point and time, is the leading indicator (LI). The LI, when triggered, normally alerts 4 to 8 trade days in advance of the forecast change- that excludes the bias. The bias can change by the hour.  

 

1/7/04 Wednesday-

9:22 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:45 am ET- Indices get off to a negative start as there is nada for traders to trade on. With little in way of economical news and earnings around the corner, traders opt to wait-it-out for the all important jobs data Thursday with payroll data on Friday. The indices hit bottom and have begun a slow trend upward. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

12:32 pm ET- Indices continue to make positive progress- NASDAQ leads the way with a 1/2 percent gain, S&P unchanged, and the DOW is only down by .1 percent- albeit at lunchtime. Market momentum could pickup this afternoon in anticipation of jobs data out in the morning.

2:43 pm ET- The averages continue to roam- NASDAQ trends slightly higher by 1/2 percent. The Barometer models are on the lookout for a firm trend change- no change detected yet. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

4:40 pm ET- Mixed end for the averages. NASDAQ puts on a 1 percent gain for the day and ends at its highest level since Summer 2001. The DOW ends nearly even with a .1 percent loss, the S&P ends slightly higher with a .2 percent gain. Advancing issues out shine decliners by 1.2:1. The Barometer stock market forecast continues to indicate positive.

5:58 pm ET- NASDAQ continues to outperform- 3 percent past 4-days. DOW and S&P about 1 percent, same period. The Barometer leading indicator shows a good positive plot configuration- means positive environment for stocks. The bias models are looking for a firm trends- but haven't found it yet- so bias stays positive as well.  

 

1/6/04 Tuesday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral- probably negative open.

10:43 am ET- Indices open slightly down this morning on profit taking- little action in bidding stocks higher as traders mull the recent rally. It is normal, even healthy, for stocks to pullback a bit. The DOW off by .3 percent, the S&P is off by .2 percent, and the NASDAQ is flat. ||  The forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

11:26 am ET- Market hangs in with modest loss. NASDAQ peeks above the unchanged line as the broader market is nearly even. Advancing and declining issues are nearly dead even. The indices hang close to the flat line within .2 percent.

12:53 pm ET- The popular averages continue sideways after a very modest drop this morning. Traders and investors may settle for sideways moving market until earnings trickle out later this week and into next week when earnings season gets underway.

2:46 pm ET- Moving into the home stretch- its NASDAQ leading to the positive side as the other averages continue churning sideways. Mixed economical news today and no major earnings data to mull over, sees buyers and sellers, basically trading issues- I'll take one of those and two of these and I'll give you four of them... Traders will get fresh data in the form of jobless claims and payrolls later this week that could inspire momentum- hopefully positive. The DOW and S&P continue churning within .1 percent of unchanged- NASDAQ posts .4 percent gain. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

4:40 pm ET- Mixed end to the market- S&P ends slightly positive, NASDAQ compiles 1/2 percent gain for the day, and the DOW lags with a slight loss. Advancing issues slightly out gain declining issues. There's no major economical data set for release Wednesday, could see another slow day. Thursday and Friday we will see payroll and jobless data- could inspire momentum.  

 

1/5/04 Monday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:23 am ET- Governor Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve spoke this weekend at the American Economic Association meeting held in San Diego. His speech centered around the economical recovery and his view on the FOMC interest rate policy. He as much said the Fed is not in a hurry to raise rates any time soon, he said that, "the FOMC has held its policy instrument rate, the federal funds rate, at the very low level of 1 percent. I would like to take some time now to explain why I believe this policy remains appropriate, despite its historically unusual character."…

11:43 am ET- Traders react to the Fed stance on monetary policy. With remarks, this weekend, from Chairman Alan Greenspan and Governor Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve it is very clear that the Fed will keep the Fed funds rate very low. Futures react positive to the comments over the weekend and translated into an opening rally this morning. Traders could be using this as a sign that the Fed will not change the rate this year. Time will tell, but for now the market sees: economy recovering, corporations ready to expand, and unemployment rate about to drop- putting Americans back to work. The averages, off the highs of the morning, are up- DOW by .7 percent, S&P by .6 percent, and the NASDAQ by 1.2 percent. The Barometer market forecast continues to indicate positive. 

12:32 pm ET- Stocks do well on first Monday of the new year. At midday, NASDAQ leads the way with a 1.3 percent gain, the S&P and DOW better by more than .6 percent.

2:43 pm ET- With a little over an hour to go, stocks and the averages continue trending higher. Traders come back from lunch hungry and bid the DOW and tech stocks up. NASDAQ continues to lead with a 1.6 percent gain thus far, with DOW up nearly 1 percent. The S&P500 trends positive but lags with a .6 percent gain for the day. Upgrades, good economical data, and the Fed talks stocks higher on the first Monday of the year. With nearly a guarantee that the Fed funds rate will be held in check probably for the remainder of 2004, has $ signs imprinted on traders and investors. With the "January effect" in progress, stocks continue to look good for the near term, according to the majority of analysts. The Barometer continues to indicate positive but the models are actively searching for a trend departure which when found could indicate a more cautionary attitude. But for now, the Barometer bias indicates a positive trend in full force.

4:33 pm ET corrected- The Fed Rocks 'n' the markets Roll right into 2004 with 2-year highs. The March 2003 rally continues with super optimism that at least first-half 2004 will be a winner. The DOW closes the day with 1.3 percent gain, S&P with a 1.2 percent gain, and the tech-weighted  NASDAQ ends with over a 2 percent gain.

5:39 pm ET- The Barometer close models indicate a possible leading indicator change later tonight. The last model run of the day is at 9:30 pm ET, any change to the leading indicator normally comes from this run. Data from the close models (ran after the close) suggest that the market may be getting a little ahead of itself. Any change to the forecast will be published after the last model run. For now, the forecast continues to be positive.

11:16 pm ET- The night models have run and they do not indicate a forecast change. The leading indicator chart shows a firm trend that is consistent with a continuation of mostly positive market environment. The models do suggest that a correction, a giving back of some of the gains, would be normal, even healthy, at this point.  

 

Weekend-

1/3/04 Saturday 12:04 pm ET- Summary of the last week of trade in 2003: Monday. Market opens positive and trends slightly off the highs at midmorning. The mad cow investigation is widening and terror concerns seem to be dissipating somewhat- bad news continues to be discounted. Tech stocks make a run at 2000 in last hour of trade, closing above 2006- nearly 1.7 percent gain for the day. DOW and S&P gain 1.2 percent. Advancing issues swamp decliners 2.7:1- nearly 3 to 1 broad based rally. Tuesday. NASDAQ holds onto 2k. Indices continue moving sideways after the mornings sharp decline on unexpected results from economical data. The averages continue flat, within .2 percent of unchanged. Indices snap back at the close to end the day nearly flat. No market-moving news and holiday spirit leads to a slow day for stocks. Jobless claims data released Wednesday morning should get traders attention. But beyond that another probable slow day leading into New Year's holiday and a closed market. Wednesday. The DOW and S&P hovers around the unchanged line- NASDAQ is down .6 percent- below 2,000. After opening with a positive start to the last trading day of 2003, the indices vacillate looking for direction. Stock market closes the 2003 regular session with a mixed ending. DOW and S&P end positive while NASDAQ ends negative but ends 2003 at 2003. Declining issues slightly beat Advancing issues by 1.2:1. Thursday. U.S. stock market closed for New Year's day. Friday. Manufacturing in the U.S. expanding at a better than expected rate and general optimism that the economy and corporations are also growing has investors wanting a piece of the growth by bidding stocks higher on the first trading day of the new year. It would be perfectly normal to see the market lower as we have had quite a leg-up lately. Averages end mixed. The DOW lost nearly 1/2 percent, S&P down .3 percent, but the NASDAQ ends just on the positive side. Advancing issues end slightly better than decliners- ratio of 1.3:1.

1/4/04 Sunday  11:19 am ET- First full week of the new year should see the momentum pickup. There are several economical data releases that should provide market direction; Automobile and truck sales data Monday to the ISM service index on Tuesday. The all important jobless claims and payroll data on Thursday and Friday. The market forecast continues to indicate a positive market environment.

1/4/04 Sunday  1:00 pm ET- Chairman Alan Greenspan attended the American Economic Association meeting held in San Diego California yesterday. His speech was on the economy, specifically monetary policy "from the perspective of someone who has been in the policy trenches". His remarks were centered around conclusions about what he believed had been learned thus far in the risk and uncertainty in monetary policy.  

 

Bottom of page

 

1/2/04 Friday-

9:27 am ET- Look for a positive start to 2004.

10:31 am ET- 2004 gets off to a great start. The ISM PMI was reported this morning beating expectations by a wide margin. The index came in at 66.2, most had expected near 61. The S&P is up by .5 percent, DOW by .6 percent, and the NASDAQ positive by .7 percent. The market forecast continues to be positive.

11:54 am ET- Manufacturing in the U.S. expanding at a better than expected rate and general optimism that the economy and corporations are also growing has investors wanting a piece of the growth by bidding stocks higher on the first trading day of the new year. The Barometer stock market (the major indices) forecast continues to indicate a positive environment going forward. The Barometer models run throughout the day and when the models detect a change in market fundamentals the first indicator  to alert is normally the leading indicator. The leading indicator currently is at the "home" position waiting to alert to the negative side- as it already alerted positive that lead to this latest leg-up in the averages.

2:15 pm ET- NASDAQ holds its gains as the DOW and S&P have trend lower to near the unchanged line. With traders and investors still in holiday mode, not much is anticipated for the remainder of the session. Look for a chance of a spike (positive or negative) near the close in reaction to the great ISM number released earlier this morning.

3:16 pm ET- With less than an hour to go, indices make new lows as bidding stocks higher has ended. It would be perfectly normal to see the market lower as we have had quite a leg-up lately. The Barometer continues to indicate positive.

4:44 pm ET- Averages end mixed. The DOW lost nearly 1/2 percent, S&P down .3 percent, but the NASDAQ ends just on the positive side. Advancing issues end slightly better than decliners- ratio of 1.3:1.

6:13 pm ET- Slow holiday sessions show very little chart movement. The leading indicator continues to show a mostly positive market environment. The Barometer chart shows continue advancement into bear territory. The market forecast, for the near term, continues to be positive.

 

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