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12/30/03 Tuesday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

11:32 am ET- Market drops sharply on unexpected economical data this morning but has recovered to near unchanged. At 11:15 am ET, the averages are within .2 percent of unchanged. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

11:55 am ET- An updated Market Memo indicates three market scenarios for January; Stock market environment continues to be mostly positive... Begin a pullback and retrace some of the gains from the latest advance of the market... Trade in a somewhat tight trading range...

12:15 pm ET- NASDAQ holds onto 2k, for now. Indices continue moving sideways after this mornings sharp decline on unexpected results from economical data. The averages continue flat, within .2 percent of unchanged.

2:19 pm ET- With little news to trade on, the averages sink slightly lower on thin trading. The indices are lower by .1 to .3 percent. The markets are expected to be slow through the remainder of today and into Wednesday.

4:30 pm ET- Indices snap back at the close to end the day nearly flat. No market-moving news and holiday spirit leads to a slow day for stocks. Jobless claims data released Wednesday morning should get traders attention. But beyond that another probable slow day leading into New Year's holiday and a closed market. 

5:56 pm ET- A little surge at the close helps the major averages to close near flat for the day. Not much change in the charts; the leading indicator shows market on track to continue the positive environment. The Barometer chart shows the plot (plots represent performance of the market) well into bear territory with a possible test of resistance to come. 

 

12/29/03 Monday-

9:21 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:10 am ET- Market opens positive and trends slightly off the highs at midmorning. The mad cow investigation is widening and terror concerns seem to be dissipating somewhat- bad news continues to be discounted. The Barometer continues to indicate a positive environment.

12:43 pm ET updated- With little news to drive stocks, there is and has been a positive tone as investors and traders see 2004 as a year that will continue the rally started in March. The good news is the economy most likely will continue to recover and corporate capital spending should fire-up. The bad news is it is widely expected that stocks are going to do well in 2004. The contrarian indicator sees this overwhelming optimism as a reason the market may not do as well as most expect in 2004- so what can you do about that? The Barometer forecast can detect changes in trading and is able to identify those news events that affect trading. Keep an eye on the Barometer, especially the leading indicator (LI), as the LI can foresee changes in the market environment 4 to 8 trade days before the market actually changes. The leading indicator, today, is at neutral which means it is at its "home" position waiting to trigger on the next change in the market.

2:55 pm ET- With a little over an hour to go, the popular averages continue trending higher. The NASDAQ leads the way with a better than 1 percent gain, DOW follows with better than .7 percent and the S&P posts 1/2 percent gain. Traders and investors continue bidding stocks higher in keeping of the overwhelming expectation of a positive inflow in January-  expectations for 2004 are positive- not many analysts suggesting 2004 to be a negative year. The market forecast for the near term continues to indicate positive.

4:30 pm ET- NASDAQ 2000. Tech stocks make a run at 2000 in last hour of trade, closing above 2006- nearly 1.7 percent gain for the day. DOW and S&P gain 1.2 percent. Advancing issues swamp decliners 2.7:1- nearly 3 to 1 broad based rally.

6:20 pm ET- Market continues to advance on 2004 outlook- kind of environment a bull would like to see every day. Activity could pick up Tuesday as Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, and existing home sales are up on deck for traders to mull. Beyond that, more economical data Wednesday and Thursday the markets are closed for New Year's- market to reopen Friday for a full session. The leading indicator shows strength of the market which could continue into January. |

The market forecast continues to indicate positive near-term environment.  

 

Weekend-

Saturday 11:53 am ET- Weekly summary: Monday- Santa Claus rally is on. Market continues to discount geopolitical news in favor of focusing on the economy and corporate earnings. The forecast was changed to positive from caution. "The models revealed the proper positive configuration for the market (DOW, S&P NASDAQ) going forward"... Tuesday- It was being widely reported Tuesday evening that the first case of mad cow disease was found in Washington State. In a flurry of reports, it was not clear the impact this news might have on the markets on Wednesday morning... Wednesday- Market ended the short session with negative results- mad cow uncertainty and mixed economical data sited. The DOW and S&P end down .4 percent. The NASDAQ ends lower by .3 percent... Thursday- U.S. markets were closed to observe Christmas. Friday- Major indexes climbed early in the morning and trended lower to close midpoint from the open and highs of the day. With no economical news but lots of mad cow reports, Santa Claus rally seems to be intact- giving way to the "January affect" and the hope that the positive environment continues.

12/28/03 Sunday 12:07 pm ET- Last week of the year will see another short trading week. Stock market scheduled for full sessions except Thursday, to honor New Year's day. Economical data to be released includes Chicago PMI, ISM PMI, consumer confidence, jobless initial claims, among others. The Barometer stock market forecast indicates positive.  

 

12/26/03 Friday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:12 am ET- Post Christmas market sees stocks higher but trending slightly off the highs of the morning. Advancing issues over declining issues by 1.6:1. No economic news this morning to drive the market as traders gear up for a short session- market will close at 1:00 pm ET. The market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment for stocks.

11:46 am ET- The major averages continue a sideways move just off the highs of the session on low volume. Reports are circulating that a second herd of cows have been isolated in Washington state- but no further information was available.

1:42 pm ET- Indices end Christmas week in the green on very low volume. Major indexes climb early and trend lower to close midpoint from the open and highs of the day. With no economical news but lots of mad cow reports, Santa Claus rally seems to be intact- giving way to the "January affect" and the hope that the positive environment continues.

3:05 pm ET- Markets close early to end the holiday week and move into the end of year where we will see another short week of trading. The Barometer chart is ready- neutral market day shows no significant change. The leading indicator chart- still shows above resistance but beginning to trend down. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate positive going into the last week of 2003.  

 

12/24/03 Wednesday-

9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start (slight chance of a mixed open) to the short trade day- market will close 1:00 pm ET.

10:48 am ET- For the week ending 12/20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 353,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's figure of 354,000. The 4-week moving average is 361,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's average of 362,000.

11:18 am ET- Market starts out with selling on mad cow uncertainty and a mixed picture on the  economical front. Indices are improving- well off the lows and trending to the unchanged line. The market forecast indicates positive with a positive bias.

1:00 pm ET- Market closed...

3:16 pm ET- Market ends the short session with negative results- mad cow uncertainty and mixed economical data sited. The DOW and S&P end down .4 percent. The NASDAQ ends lower by .3 percent.

4:25 pm ET- U.S. markets will be closed Thursday to observe Christmas. Stock market will reopen at 9:30 am ET Friday for a half day session.  

 

12/23/03 Tuesday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

10:33 am ET- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the output of goods and services, increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, according to revised estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today.

10:40 am ET- "As expected" economical data released this morning has traders and investors continuing to bid stocks higher. The last full day of trading this week sees the DOW positive by .2 percent, NASDAQ up by .6 percent, and the S&P near flat. The Barometer market forecast, changed last evening, now indicates a positive environment with a positive bias.

12:16 pm ET- The DOW and S&P weaken, nearly unchanged, as the trading day enters lunchtime- NASDAQ trends sideways while holding a .5 percent gain. The market forecast, changed yesterday evening, now indicates a generally positive market environment going forward.

2:29 pm ET- The indices continue to trend off the highs of the day. The DOW is off by 26, the S&P nearly unchanged, and the NASDAQ posts +7. Wednesday, short trade day, sees jobless initial claims and new home sales- could give traders some motivation. Unless there are some unexpected developments, should be a very slow half-session.

4:30 pm ET- Market averages end positive on low volume. DOW flat for the day, S&P ends .3 percent up, and the out performer NASDAQ ends with 1 percent gain.

10:26 pm ET- It is being widely reported this evening that the first case of mad cow disease was found in Washington State. In a flurry of reports, it was not clear the impact this news might have on the markets come Wednesday morning. Some sectors and commodities might be hit harder than others at the markets open- caution should be used until additional facts are obtained from reporting sources. 

 

12/22/03 Monday-

9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Not much reaction to the terror alert expected.

10:19 am ET- Indices open down but make comeback to near unchanged, although the S&P is slightly negative. A mute response by traders on the terror alert as was the response in the overseas markets earlier. The market forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias.

4:30 pm ET- Market focuses on the economy and corporate recovery but ignores all other news, albeit on low volume. The DOW ends up .6 percent- 19-month high, S&P up .4 percent, and the NASDAQ up .3 percent.

6:15 pm ET- Santa Claus rally is on. Market continues to discount geopolitical news in favor of focusing on the economy and corporate earnings. Well into bear territory, it appears another resistance level is taken out. The market close models run at 9:30 to determine any changes to the forecast. Results should be posted by 10:30-11:00 pm timeframe. Until then, the forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

11:48 pm ET- Forecast alert: the forecast has changed to positive from caution. "The models reveal the proper positive configuration for the market (DOW, S&P NASDAQ) going forward"... 

 

Weekend-  

12/20/03 Saturday 9:56 AM ET- With yesterdays neutral action, the Barometer charts didn't change that much. The Barometer chart shows plot still above resistance, the leading indicator shows a favorable market environment-

models indicate that the negative boundary is not positioned properly for a forecast change.  Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a favorable bias.

12/20/03 Saturday 12:14 PM ET- Summary of the indices sees the DOW gaining 2.4 percent, the S&P gained 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ lagged with a .1 percent gain this week. Appears money comes out of tech stocks into the DOW and S&P- rotation. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias- the bias was last changed on Friday 12/12. The models back on 12/12 identified this week as capable of gains but had insufficient positive data to upgrade the general forecast.

12/21/03 Sunday 12:18 pm ET- The U.S. market will be closed Thursday  12/25, with early closings (1:00 pm ET) on Wednesday and Friday in honor of Christmas.

12/21/03 Sunday 2:35 pm ET- The U.S. Government today raised the national threat level from an Elevated to High risk of terrorist attack - or from code Yellow to code Orange, as announced by Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.

12/21/03 Sunday 3:51 pm ET corrected- With the short week ahead, the investing community will be diverted somewhat from the norm to celebrate the holidays while keeping an eye on several important economical data releases. GDP, sentiment, jobless claims are among the data to be released that will indicate how the economical recovery is progressing. Initial market reaction to the heighten terror alert is unknown at this time. Overseas markets, later this evening, will give us a clue to how the U.S. markets may react come Monday morning. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

 

12/19/03 Friday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

10:42 AM ET- Stocks get off to a positive start but since have trended back towards unchanged- the DOW is outperforming by .3 percent. With the lack of economical data and earnings reports, we could see a lackluster day with the indices moving sideways. Today is quadruple witching which could add a little volatility, but none is expected.

12:35 PM ET- No news, no move. Averages are expected to move sideways until the last couple of hours of trade today, when buyers and sellers pickup momentum sending the indices up or down depending on the bidding. It is expected to be orderly, but could spike a little as there should continue to be low volume. At 12:20 Eastern, the DOW and S&P are within .2 percent of unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down by 1/2 percent. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive Barometer bias.

1:08 PM ET- Yesterday evening the market models ran, like they normally do each trade day, to determine any changes to the forecast. No changes were identified- the biggest data point was the Barometer-plot being just above resistance and the fact that the negative boundary was not configured properly for a change in the forecast. It was decided to leave the forecast as is pending more data (today's market).

The market forecast continues to indicate caution but with a positive bias.

2:55 PM ET- Not much change over the past couple of hours. DOW had gone (barely) into positive territory and the S&P and NASDAQ continue just below flat. All holding close to unchanged all day. Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:37 PM ET- Indices end mixed with the DOW up by .3 percent and the NASDAQ down by .3 percent- appears rotation of money flow out of tech stocks has been occurring of late. S&P ended flat. The market forecast, unchanged last evening, continues to indicate caution.

6:15 PM ET- With today's neutral market, not much in the way of change in the charts. The Barometer chart shows still above resistance, the leading indicator shows a favorable market environment- but the models indicate that the negative boundary is not positioned properly for a forecast change. Evening models (last run of the evening is at 9:30 PM ET) still have to run but no change is expected. Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a favorable bias.  

 

12/18/03 Thursday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral- probably positive start to the open of trading this morning.

10:46 AM ET- Stocks are tacking on gains after a better than expected jobless report. For the week ending Dec. 13, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 353,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's figure. The four-week moving average was 361,750- well under the 400,000 benchmark figure. This report along with no inflation equals a positive environment for stocks. The DOW up by .6 percent, S&P better by .8 percent, and the NASDAQ positive by 1.2 percent. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:13 PM ET- Continued good news; economical data, stock upgrades, the prospect that 2004 will be a continuation of this year, and the positive turn in yesterdays market, has traders biding stocks higher in today's session. If the market can stay positive, the Barometer models indicate a forecast change later this evening- could see another positive move by the leading indicator and a forecast change. The DOW and S&P are better by .6 percent and the NASDAQ is up 1.1 percent.

12:54 PM ET- The Barometer leading indicator (LI) is a Barometer model that predicts changes in the market. The LI has already alerted to this latest upturn in the market and has since been reset back to neutral. This allows the LI to continue tracking and predict the next market change. If today continues positive, the LI models could trigger another alert- another positive alert. This means that the LI would have identified a more bullish upturn in the market- within 4 to 8 trade days from now. We will have to see how all this plays out today, but if today's market holds as strong as it is, we could see a market like today well into January. But in the meantime, the market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

3:05 PM ET- With an hour to go, the major indexes continue the climb upward sporting better than 1 percent gain, with the NASDAQ outperforming. Advancing issues have the advantage over declining issues by better than 2:1. The models continue to look very good for a forecast change later this evening. The last model run is at 9:30 PM, Eastern. Any forecast change will be posted after that time, but well prior to Fridays open.

4:36 PM ET- Market firing on all cylinders- environment fortified by good economical and geopolitical news that has traders and investors swarming. The DOW ends up 1 percent, S&P up by 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ outperforms and ends up by 1.8 percent. All end near the highs of the session.

6:27 PM ET- Is this topping-out action, or is the stock market going to continue the rally? The model run this evening should provide more details than we have at this juncture.

11:50 PM ET- The models have completed without a conclusive indication of a change. The data indicates that the Barometer negative-boundary is not positioned properly to signal a firm positive market, therefore, the forecast stays at caution. A cautionary forecast indicates that the market can be negative or positive, influenced by the bias, which currently indicates positive. The bottom line- the market is still subject to further negative sessions and since the Barometer-plot is just above resistance, further testing of this resistance could occur Friday- and it could fail the test- thus the forecast of caution. 

 

12/17/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

10:45 AM ET- Market settles in with moderate loss. Good earnings report from brokerages keeps market near neutral, just under the unchanged line. SARS resurfaces and has a mild affect. The DOW and S&P down by .2 percent and the NASDAQ shows 1/2 percent loss. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

11:17 AM ET- Indices continue to improve with little news to inspire traders, one way or the other. Thursday, traders will get another look at jobless initial claims- could move traders if data comes in better than expected. Also on tap for Thursday is the Leading Indicator and the Philadelphia Fed report. The Barometer models are on trend watch- looking for a signal that the market is "firming" in one direction or the other. The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. A cautionary forecast, in Barometer terms, means the market can trend positive or negative- but stocks selectively are in an environment that can advance.

12:39 PM ET- Indices sag, as buyers must be out to lunch. The popular average were trending upward towards unchanged but lunchtime interrupted the buying. Sometimes what happens during the noon hour gets reversed later in the session- lets hope that happens today. Even if it doesn't, the losses today, so far, are very minimal compared to the advances we have had lately. This market exhibits the 10-steps forward, 2-steps back- typical of a market that wants to move higher.

2:22 PM ET- Major indexes continue to move sideways just short of flat in slow trade. DOW and S&P lower by .1 percent while the NASDAQ is off by 1/2 percent.

3:17 PM ET- Inside an hour to go and NASDAQ trends off, spotting 1/2 percent loss. The other indices continue to hold near flat. Gold sees gains of $4- do you wish you had some! Forecast stuck at caution, bias stuck waiting for a firm trend to develop- none as of yet.

4:29 PM ET- A little spurt at the close helps the major averages to close up for the DOW and S&P, but NASDAQ continued underwater. DOW ends up .2 percent, S&P up .1 percent, and the NASDAQ ends the day down .2 percent.

6:07 PM ET- After the close Barometer models have run and the initial indication is, no change to the forecast. Since the bias is currently positive, the next logical step would be the forecast to turn positive- Thursday could be a market mover, as jobless claims are on deck for an early call. For now the forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. 

 

12/16/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

11:38 AM ET- Averages continue mixed performance on good economical data- appears the Fed could stay on hold [rate hike] for an extended period of time. CPI data suggests that inflation may not be a concern, for the FOMC, for some time to come. The DOW posts a gain of .6 percent, the NASDAQ down .7 percent, and the S&P is near unchanged. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

3:12 PM ET- NASDAQ finally turns positive to rejoin the pack. DOW good by .9 percent, S&P .6 percent gain, and the NASDAQ spots a .1 percent gain, as the market turns for the home stretch.

4:44 PM ET- Most stocks do well- tech lags. Good economical data and positive news from Iraq, creates a better mood as some stocks recover yesterdays loss. Traders look forward to Thursdays jobless data- to maybe keep this positive environment in place. The DOW ended better than 1 percent, S&P by .7, and the NASDAQ by .3 percent. 

 

12/15/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a strong open.

12:25 PM ET- At midday, the indices hang-on to some of the gains attributed to the capture of Hussein. With little other market moving news, indices could meander with a positive end today in anticipation of CPI and housing data to be released Tuesday. DOW up .7 percent, S&P positive by .4 percent , and the NASDAQ up by .4 percent- well off the high of the morning The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

3:19 PM ET- Major market indexes fail to keep rally gains and trend lower, S&P and DOW near unchanged, NASDAQ off by .6 percent. Could be a slow week as little economical data left to discover- about the only data traders will key on is jobless initial claims scheduled to report on Thursday. As we get closer to the end of the week, there will be more focus on Christmas week. Forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:40 PM ET- Rally dies as the DOW eases to near flat, .2 percent loss. S&P down .6 percent and the NASDAQ gets hammered with a 1.6 percent loss.

6:15 PM ET- Today's negative performance sees another failed attempt to cross resistance. A closer look at the leading indicator shows 5 attempts to get through the new resistance line that's well into bear territory- the good news is the market could still make another run at resistance before the holidays sets in. Traders Tuesday will refocus on the economy and if good data, we could see a positive day. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. 

 

Weekend-

12/13/03 Saturday 12:55 PM ET- Fed week ends with bullishness as the DOW secures 10,000. Large capitalization stocks (DOW) close the week with 1.8 percent gain, S&P gains 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ends with .6 percent gain, as tech stocks under perform. Monday started out positive but somewhat weak and saw the bias change from positive to neutral. The focus was the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and kept traders on hold. On Tuesday the Fed keeps the Fed funds rate at 1 percent and says "policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period". With that said, the market ended with a loss. Wednesdays are good days for turnarounds and the thought was that traders would react to the Fed that day. The market saw sideways movement until the last 40 minutes and the turnaround began with the averages making a run at the unchanged line. Thursday continued the bullish attitude and traders continued the advance all day and ended the rally that day with sizable gains. Friday saw much of the same- a positive day as trader and investor bid stock higher. Late Friday evening the bias was changed to positive from neutral- as a firm trend, started on Wednesday, developed and lead the models to indicate a more positive environment going forward- watch for a forecast change next week.

12/14/03 Sunday 11:04 AM ET- US forces apprehend former President Saddam Hussein south of his birth city of Tikrit Iraq. The US stock market likely to rally Monday morning as this news has been long anticipated. The rally would be in response of the good news and that this should bring greater stability to the region. Should have a clue to how big of a rally by later tonight when overseas markets open.

12/14/03 Sunday 12:15 PM ET- After the initial reaction to the capture of Hussein, the market will try and focus on little economical data- CPI, Philadelphia Fed report, and initial claims are among the data to be released this week that could have a small impact on trading. Thursday and Friday the focus will begin to switch to Christmas week.

12/14/03 Sunday 10:44 PM ET- Early review of overseas markets and Futures indicate a strong open for the U.S. stock market Monday morning. Most markets have responded positive to the news of the capture of Saddam Hussein which most likely will carry over to the U.S. open. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.   

 

12/12/03 Friday-

9:17 AM ET- Looks like a neutral-to-positive open on unexpected fall in PPI.

10:39 AM ET- Two economical data points fall this morning; PPI fell unexpectedly- traders like this because it tends to put the Fed on hold from raising rates, sentiment report fell- traders hold biding stocks up until the report can be analyzed causing the indices to core dump. After the market settles down we may see a pickup on buyers activity. At 10:25 ET the indices are trending back to unchanged. Yesterday evening the leading indicator was changed to neutral from positive in a normal move by the models. The indicator always is reset to its "home" position after an event. The forecast now reads caution with a neutral bias.

3:05 PM ET- Averages continue to be choppy as they are virtually unchanged- with low volume, advancing issues slightly outpace decliners by 1.2:1. With an hour to go, no reason for traders to make much of change ahead of the weekend. The Barometer forecast indicates caution.

4:40 PM ET- Choppy trading ended mid-afternoon as buyers step in and move stocks higher. The averages close Friday with a .3 percent gain. Models are running and from preliminary data, looks like the bias will change later this afternoon.

5:39 PM ET- DOW closes above 10K second time as the broader market advances. All the major indices close with a .3 percent gain. With today's positive advance comes another test of bear strength on tap for Monday. Chart shows a third attempt at breaking through new resistance. The last model run for the day is scheduled for 9:30- that is the model run that determines forecast changes. Results will be available later this evening.

10:40 PM ET- The evening models have run and indicate a bias change. "On Wednesday, at about 3:00 PM ET, the averages dipped and began the advance with a rally Thursday that saw the DOW break and close above 10,000. On Friday, the averages dipped slightly on a negative sentiment report but continued the firm trend to close with a positive gain. The broader market advanced as well"...  

 

12/11/03 Thursday-

9:21 AM ET- Look for a neutral- mixed open on mixed economical data released this morning.

11:25 AM ET- There's good news and bad news- Americans are still being terminated from their jobs- initial jobless claims are up again, worse than expected by analysts. The good news,  traders see that as data that the Fed might use to hold off on the Fed funds rate hike a little bit longer. There is little doubt that the economical recovery is picking up steam, that along with corporate America gearing-up, equals a robust economy. But not to robust- the Fed will put the breaks on at some point- traders want that point to be later not sooner. The market is responding well today with the averages between .6 and 1.2 percent higher this morning. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The leading indicator continues to indicate a higher market.

3:10 PM ET- DOW hits 10,000 again, and again, and again. Will it close above 10K? Does it matter? It probably does for the day or the week but past that it probably has no technical value. What has merit is if the volume picks up and the market has several back-to-back days of positive moves. Portfolio managers will position for the new year- dumping some stuff and buying others. We will see if traders are willing to bid higher or not. The Barometer bias, stuck at neutral, may get upgraded if the models can determine a firm trend- a lasting firm trend. Meantime, the forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

4:40 PM ET- DOW takes 10K. First close above since May '02. Question is- can it close above 10K Friday? S&P gains 1.2 percent while the NASDAQ posts 2 percent gain.

6:34 PM ET- To keep the momentum of today going, will require more good super data- PPI and sentiment on deck. The leading indicator shows that more positive days are required in order to keep this 10K rally going. Fridays tone will be important.

11:14 PM ET- The leading indicator (LI) was changed this evening to neutral from positive. The change to neutral is normal when the LI has performed its job. "The leading indicator leads the forecast and the market normally by 4 to 8 trade days. Today (12/11/03) is the eighth trade day and the ensuing rally today satisfies the indicator. Once the indicator "runs its course" it is reset to neutral so that it can be triggered again if there is another leading indicator event. Neutral is the "home" position when the leading indicator is waiting to alert or trigger".  

 

12/10/03 Wednesday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral open- chance of being positive.

10:53 AM ET- Market gets off to a slightly good start but settles back at unchanged. No news, keeps the averages near home, at 10:45 ET, the DOW is up 15, NASDAQ up 2, and S&P unchanged. The forecast indicates caution.

2:42 PM ET- With under two hours to go, the averages continue moving sideways, within .1 percent of unchanged. Thursday will see some news- retail sales, initial jobless claims, inventories, and the FOMC minutes from the previous session will be released.

4:39 PM ET- The indices struggle all day but make a run to end near unchanged. Last 40 minutes of trading saw a small reversal that could carryover to Thursday. All three indices end slightly off but within .2 percent of the flat line.

6:10 PM ET- Stocks are struggling to find direction- lots of economical data to mull tomorrow and Friday. Models run tonight to see if any changes are needed. Meanwhile, the forecast is caution with a neutral bias.  

 

12/9/03 Tuesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral- slightly positive start as the wait begins for the Fed.

10:55 AM ET- DOW hits 10,000 and minutes later retreats to trend lower to unchanged. S&P and NASDAQ near flat as well. Stocks probably will stay near unchanged until this afternoons Fed statement on their view of the economy and any hints they may give on interest rate hike. The Forecast for the indices is caution with a neutral bias.

11:51 AM ET- Approaching noon, the DOW and S&P continue to hold close to unchanged- NASDAQ off by .8 percent. Declining issues out in front of advancing issues by nearly 2 to 1. At about 2:15 PM ET, the FOMC will announce that the rate, now 1 percent, will be left unchanged. The accompanying statement on rate hike is what traders are waiting on. The Barometer indicates caution.

2:55 PM ET- FOMC leaves Fed funds rate at 1 percent and says "with inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period." Market reaction was initially a small upward spike in the averages but since have declined with the DOW off slightly, S&P off .6 percent, and the NASDAQ off 1.4 percent.

4:35 PM ET- Post FOMC sees the NASDAQ hit with a 2 percent loss, as the DOW lost 1/2 percent, S&P off by nearly 1 percent. Buyers don't bid stocks higher- this afternoon was a sellers market. Reaction to the Fed could come in Wednesdays trade, as buyers this afternoon could have been strategizing. Wednesdays are good days for turnarounds. The Barometer indicate caution with a neutral bias. 

 

12/8/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start to the week.

10:57 AM ET- Indices trend up as does the majority of stocks. All eyes are on the Fed meeting Tuesday to see what they will say about interest rates- no change in rates expected, but traders want to know Fed thinking and try and glean when the Fed will begin the hike process. Thinking is no earlier than mid-2004. Most expect the Federal Reserve to say nothing about rates but maybe to try and determine their bias on the matter. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:55 PM ET- Market at midday is mixed- DOW holding an advance, the NASDAQ loosing an early gain and the S&P moves to unchanged. A vacuum of news leaves trading meandering as everyone awaits the Fed meeting Tuesday. Advancing and declining issues are nearly dead even.

4:23 PM ET- Traders put life back into the indices, as the last 11/2 hours of trading is securing higher positions- now the wait begins for the Fed meeting in the morning. The major indexes close Monday .5 to 1 percent higher.

5:02 PM ET- At midday, the models indicated no identifiable Barometer firm trend for the past couple of days. In keeping with Barometer methodology, it was determined to downgrade the bias to neutral from positive.

7:37 PM ET- Depending on how the Federal Reserve statement is interpreted by the investing community, could very well decide how the market ends up Tuesday. If the Fed takes, or is interpreted as taking, no bias position on interest rates, the market could sell off. It will be extremely important how the fed conveys its view of the economical recovery. The market is at high values, possibly overvalued, and not able to make further advances, and if this bull-market-to-be is to continue advancing and break through resistance, there will have to be a sign from the Fed that interest rate hike process is not something they will entertain for an extended period of time (very late 2004 or even 2005). The averages are critically positioned, and according to the leading indicator, it would not take much to begin a sell-off, on the magnitude that could take the market and stocks back to the long running Barometer channel. Tuesday's market could decide the direction for months to come. The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

 

Weekend-

12/6/03 Saturday 2:37 PM ET- The week started out positive; momentum from Thanksgiving week and good retail sales from 'black Friday' and the weekend, carried over to the new week. The rally kicked into high gear when better than expected ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing report indicated U.S. factories continuing to expanded . Tuesday started out with a Barometer forecast change to caution- the models sited a firm positive trend was in place. As the day ended it was clear after such a positive start to the week that profit takers would take some money of the board- indices not hurt at all, ended near flat. Wednesday saw a good start as the NASDAQ hit the magic 2,000 watermark. It was like hitting a brick wall, it immediately turned down ending the day with a 1 percent loss- it took the broader market down as well but the DOW managed to hold on to some gains. Thursday saw disappointing jobless data, only traders ignored the report and sent the indices to near 1/2 percent gain for the day. After Thursdays close, Intel reported it would take a large 4th. quarter charge and the stock got hammered in after hours. That set the stage for Friday. Friday never saw the light of day- with the negative Intel report and less than expected payroll data, traders wouldn't bid stocks up in front of the weekend and the FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday. The stock market ended on a mixed note- DOW closed with a .8 percent gain, S&P .4 percent gain but the NASDAQ ended with over a 1 percent loss on the week. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12/7/03 Sunday 12:48 PM ET- FOMC week gets underway with hopes from traders, and the like, that any statements from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday will be supportive to keeping rates unchanged till at least the last half of 2004. The major indices are at a critical point and with the run-up of stocks since March, any statements or bad news could, and most likely, be responded to with a sell off. whether stocks are overvalued or not, the perception is they are, and anything that comes along to halt the fledgling bull-market could cause months of declining prices- least path of resistance is lower not higher. At some point the what-was-once good economical news will become the news to sell on. If the economical recovery is seen to be expanding rapidly and job creation data begins to show a better than expected job creation, that could open the rate-hike door for the Fed and the opportunity to reverse rate-hike bias to tightening rather than a neutral stance. The minutes of last months FOMC meeting will be released later in the week that could shed more light on Fed bias. The Barometer forecast starts the week at caution with a positive bias- although the bias could change Monday.    

 

12/5/03 Friday-

9:19 AM ET- Stocks are set to open lower on yesterdays Intel report and payroll data released this morning.

11:01 AM ET- Employment picture gets a little bit better; unemployment rate hits 5.9 percent (down from 6.0 percent), nonfarm payroll employment rose 57,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Analysts had expected better data. That [jobs added] coupled with the negative Intel report, cause traders to take some profits. The DOW and S&P are off by .3 percent- hardest hit is the NASDAQ, off by .8 percent. Declining issues swamp advancing issues- small and mid size growth are hardest hit this morning. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

2:30 PM ET- Profit taking continues. Buyers not coming back into the market yet- The economic recovery is still on track... a weak jobs report this morning is a passing event while traders fine-tune positions. Actually, the weak jobs report might give the Fed hesitation in the rate hike process- that's good news. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week, this will be an important event for the market- what the Fed says and how they interpret the recovery will have direct influence on policy.

4:40 PM ET- Jobs data, the focus today- FOMC meeting next week, will be the new focus. Feeling continues to be market fundamentals still good- today though, buyers take a wait and see. It will be important for the Fed to take a positive stance next week as traders are becoming more concerned with the rate hike process next year. Today the DOW and S&P were down by .7 percent and the NASDAQ off by 1.6 percent.   

6:19 PM ET- The bad news- today was a negative day in the stock market. The good news- market environment for stocks continues to look ok (still in bear territory). Traders and investors will focus on the Fed meeting coming up next week, and most likely will react to any comments that comes out of the FOMC. Even though the environment looks ok, if the Fed were to say something traders don't like, we could see selling midweek. And it won't take many sequential down days to get this highly valued market in trouble- lets hope the Fed and the stock market are on the same page. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive Barometer bias.

 

12/4/03 Thursday-

9:26 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

10:56 AM ET- Indices waffle at the open but since have trended positive on not-so-good jobless data. At 10:45 ET, S&P and NASDAQ gain .3 percent and the DOW is up .4 percent.

Jobless claims, released by the Labor Department, show an increase of 11,000 new claims. 4-week moving average is 362,500. The major-indexes forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:46 PM ET- Averages take time off during lunch- well off the highs but still positive- the indexes post nearly .5 percent gain, as the NASDAQ lags with a .2 percent gain- the broader market sees declining issues leading advancing issues, slightly.

2:45 PM ET- With a little over an hour to go, the popular averages have declined to near flat for the DOW and S&P. NASDAQ suffering with a .7 percent loss, as declining issues beat out advancing issues nearly 2:1. At 1:00 PM ET, the DOW and S&P began a free fall on no apparent news. Gold futures (February) close today at $404.20...

4:35 PM ET- A nice double bottom mid-afternoon spawns a comeback for the indices. Just before 2:00 ET, all three major indices made a double bottom and shot up to close at the highs of the day (still settling). Unless there is some bad news out there, Friday should be a good day. The indices close with gains of .4, .5, .6 percent for the NASDAQ, S&P, and DOW, respectively.

6:30 PM ET- Should be an interesting Friday, as Intel says it raised the lower end of its revenue projection but says it's going to take a large charge on the 4th. quarter- Intel was down in after hours trade. The jobs data is scheduled out Friday that traders most likely will trade on. So good news bad news- which will when out? Positive momentum going into Friday might over power Intel news. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.    

 

12/3/03 Wednesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a positive start.

11:51 AM ET- Stocks get a bounce early today as the economical picture continues to look bright.  A strong productivity report released early this morning advanced stocks at the open, only to see some of the gains of the morning disappear when the ISM services number was released. After digesting the ISM data, traders once again continued buying. At 11:30 ET, the DOW had reacquired the upward trend and is positive by .7 percent, the S&P up by .5, and the NASDAQ up by .7 percent. The market forecast , last changed on Monday, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Economical reports released this morning; productivity growth rate increase to 9.4 percent- beating expectations (best level since the 80's), and the ISM non-manufacturing services report of 60.1 percent- less than expected for the sector.

2:51 PM ET- NASDAQ hits 2000 but backs down to hang just below the watermark. With a little over an hour to go, the major indices are trending away from the highs of the day. Thursdays economical data might inspire traders to carry NASDAQ over the threshold, if the data is better than expected. The DOW is well within striking range of 10,000 and a power rally above these two psychological levels could give the bear community a wakeup call. At 2:42 NASDAQ and S&P are up .6 percent, while the DOW is better by .7 percent.

4:35 PM ET- Indices go their separate ways- NASDAQ dies- DOW retains some of the days gains. NASDAQ travels 2 percent today- at its best level, it got to 2000 (1 percent gain) and closes at the worst level (-1 percent loss). S&P didn't do any better- it was off .2 percent. No news noted, just profit taking on hitting new highs.

6:15 PM ET- With today's poor performance, but on low volume, the charts show little movement. The Barometer continues to indicate a stern performance by the bull community- but when bulls try to advance, sellers come in and take profits. It may be unlikely with such low volume to get past the levels [resistance levels] the indices are currently at. Until some real good or bad news comes along, we could be stuck in this trading range. The leading indicator had detected a positive change which normally means in 4 to 8 trade days the market should continue advancing- that would be between this Friday and next Thursday that the indices should continue advancing- according to Barometer methodology. The leading indicator was changed on December 1 but if you will remember it was identified as an 'atypical' crossing, not the normal crossing. Atypical crossings are not as reliable. But as long as the leading-indicator indicates positive, it means that the indices should continue advancing- of course there is resistance to overcome. In the way of the DOW and NASDAQ advancing (bear-bull resistance and support levels), is DOW 10,000 and NASDAQ 2,000. Next couple of days will be important in determining market direction.  

 

12/2/03 Tuesday-

12:42 AM ET- Forecast alert: The last model of the day [Monday] has run and the results are that of a forecast change. The tone of Monday's market was set by the positive days leading up to Thanksgiving and with the added boost of an exceptional manufacturing report, a rally ensued... The forecast was changed from a negative to that of caution with a positive bias.

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:56 AM ET- Indices are in negative territory this morning after Monday's manufacturing rally. Stocks are mixed with advancing issues slightly beating out decliners, ratio is nearly 1:1. The Barometer forecast was changed last night to caution from negative. "The forecast model ran last night and the data reflects a firm positive trend". The forecast now indicates caution with a positive bias. 

2:49 PM ET- With slightly better than an hour to go, the major indexes are trending negative, with the DOW loosing .5 percent, S&P and NASDAQ both underwater by .3 percent. The major indexes forecast, changed last night, now indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:37 PM ET- Profit takers take indices slightly down, take the broader market near even- ratio 1:1. The DOW and NASDAQ ended off .5 percent, while the S&P did better with a slight loss of .3 percent. The market forecast, changed yesterday, indicates caution with a positive bias.

6:05 PM ET- Market takes 10 steps forward and then 2 steps back [today]. The kind of environment a bull would like to see every day. Activity could pick up Wednesday as productivity and the ISM service report are scheduled for early morning release. Beyond that, Thursday and Friday, more fresh economical data that could get traders attention- namely; jobless data, payroll, unemployment, and others. The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias-the leading indicator also indicates positive- could continue further into bear territory.

 

12/1/03 Monday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:14 AM ET- Stocks get off to a positive start, helped by a better than expected ISM manufacturing report- the PMI at 62.8 percent as reported by the Institute for Supply Management- any number above 50 percent indicates manufacturing expanding. At 11:04, the S&P is up by .7 percent, DOW by .8 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1 percent, all just off the highs of the morning.

2:29 PM ET- Stocks continue to rise with small capitalization stocks leading the way. At 2:21, with little under two hours left of the trading day, the indices continue in positive territory on a better than expected manufacturing report. The major indexes are posting around 1/2 percent gain- off the highs of the session.

4:32 PM ET- DOW and S&P close Monday just off the highs of the day- NASDAQ closes at the high (market still settling). Great ISM PMI data advances the market with the DOW posting 116 point gain. The S&P gained nearly 12, and the NASDAQ gained 29 1/2. The Barometer bias was changed to positive near the close today because the models indicated  a firm positive trend to be in place.

5:35 PM ET- The site has been experiencing intermittent outages. It appears that some ISP's are affected- but not necessarily all. The problem appears to have stabilized- We regret any inconvenience.   

6:00 PM ET- Good economical data, great start for retail sales, has buyers in the mood. The models will run later this evening to determine any forecast changes. The bias was changed today as the daytime models detected a firm trend. The charts show that the bull attack on bear territory is still intact. The leading indicator shows the Barometer-plot penetrating the neutral zone of the positive and negative boundaries- a positive sign. We should have a forecast determination later this evening.

10:47 PM ET- The leading indicator model run is complete and the data indicates a change in the leading indicator. "This change means there is a more positive attitude by traders, willing to continue driving stocks higher. Barring any unforeseen economical or geopolitical news, the market should be a favorable environment for stocks.".

 

Weekend-

11/29/03 Saturday 1:23 PM ET- The major indices did well for a 31/2 days of trading. The DOW gained 1.6 percent, S&P 2.2, and the NASDAQ gained 3.5 percent- as it [NASDAQ] continues to outperform its counterparts. The Barometer forecast, last changed on November 18, continues to indicate negative with a cautionary bias. This means, the market environment is considered negative but is moderating (bias) somewhat. The market could have declined, even though it didn't- the positive environment experienced this week is attributed to the holiday low volume and under attendance of traders. It is the position of the Barometer, that if it weren't for the holiday-effect, the market most likely would have been less positive- discounting great economical news is not a favorable signal- that normally leaves open the enhanced possibility of negative news to control the environment. This coming week will be a better gage of sentiment.

11/30/03 Sunday 12:43 PM ET- New week, new month- last month of the year and a lot of economical data for traders to digest. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) PMI is scheduled for release Monday and could be a market mover depending how the PMI is viewed by analysts and economist against expectations. The ISM services (non-manufacturing) number is released on Wednesday and it too could move traders. Other data to be released; payrolls data, jobless claims, factory orders, and the unemployment rate among others- all this week. Traders could opt out of all this weeks data in favor of waiting to see what the FOMC (the following week) meeting conjures up- traders will want to know the bias of the Fed with relation to raising interest rate- Fed language will be important. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

11/30/03 Sunday 5:10 PM ET- An updated market memo indicates a growing concern that the Fed will hike rates sooner than first anticipated. "Traders are becoming more aware that a Federal interest rate hike is on the horizon. Six months ago, an interest rate hike was not a concern- thinking then was a rate hike would be dealt with in late 2004 or even 2005. Within the last month, economical data suggests a much faster economical recovery that most had not anticipated."

 

11/28/03 Friday-  

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:55 AM ET- Major indexes crawl back to just positive in light trading as some traders took the day after Thanksgiving off. The focus for today is; last trading day of the month- could get volatile with such light volume, gold and Dollar concerns. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a cautionary bias.

11:37 AM ET- The market continues to stair-step its way higher in late morning trading on light volume. The DOW better by 19, S&P gains 1, and the NASDAQ posts 7+.

2:59 PM ET corrected- Stock market ends mixed in a short holiday session. The DOW and S&P end flat, but NASDAQ ends with a .4 percent gain. Advancing issues out weigh decliners by nearly 11/2 to 1. Market closes early in observance of Thanksgiving, and will reopen Monday for a full session.

5:04 PM ET- Short week ends with a short Friday, as the stock market doesn't make much headway. The indices ended mixed with the NASDAQ outperforming. With today's neutral performance, the market-plot continues to hover just above the bear-bull line. This could indicate a further move into bear territory, but could also be seen as testing resistance that could fail. The leading indicator chart shows the Barometer-plot between the positive and negative boundaries. This configuration could lead to a leading indicator change depending on Monday's market performance. It is to early to tell if the negative environment will continue, or if an upbeat market can be generated next week- Monday and Tuesday will give us a better idea on market direction. There should be some data from retail sales on black Friday (day after Thanksgiving retail shopping)- traders could react to any retail news through the rest of the year. 

 

11/27/03 Thursday-

10:37 AM ET- U.S. markets closed today to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. The stock market is scheduled to reopen Friday at 9:30 AM Eastern.

 

11/26/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:50 AM ET- Nothing but great economical data keeps a lid on the market- the indices hug the unchanged-line after a good start this morning. At 10:37 Eastern, the DOW and S&P within .1 percent of unchanged and the NASDAQ a gain of .3 percent. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate negative with a cautionary bias.

11:50 AM ET- Approaching noon and the indexes take a dip. Trader thinking might be; econ data already priced in, not going to make any large bets ahead of a long holiday-weekend, and the hotter the economy the quicker the Fed will raise rates. All good reasons to take profits. At 11:37 the major indices are off by 1/2 percent, advancing issues and declining issues are near even, 1:1.

3:19 PM ET- With less than an hour to go, indices are near flat. Those traders that did come in, have left or are on the way out- to get a head start on the holiday. The DOW up by 8, S&P +3, and NASDAQ +3, with light volume.

4:38 PM ET- Indices and stocks end positive, DOW lags- but ends with a slight gain. An expected light day sees choppy trading with less than full trading attendance. Continued great economical data does little for traders and investors as taking on large positions ahead of a long holiday-weekend is not a good strategy, especially with terror concerns looming. The U.S. stock market will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday but traders will return Friday for a half-day session. No economical data is scheduled for release Friday.

 

11/25/03 Tuesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral start. GDP data released this morning says the economy is growing at 8.2 percent- better than most had expected.

10:57 AM ET corrected- On the heels of the better than expected GDP number this morning, came a strong consumer confidence number- all of which are being ignored. The averages are slightly positive, within .2 percent of flat. The Conference Board, a research group, said consumer confidence for November rose to 91.7 from 81.7 in October. The Barometer leading indicator was changed last evening to neutral as was the bias yesterday afternoon. The Barometer forecast now indicates a negative market going forward with a neutral bias.

3:21 PM ET- Delayed response to this mornings good economical data, as the averages takeoff in mid-afternoon trading. The major indices are up nearly 1/2 percent and climbing. Advancing issues outperform declining issues by nearly 2:1.

4:47 PM ET- Stocks do OK, but averages take a hit as they near the end of trade. Another rumor- this one, that the Government went on red alert but decided to keep the nations alert at orange- also Homeland Security warned that attacks by terrorist are high. The averages closed well off the highs of the day, nearly flat.

6:04 PM ET- The market is back to discounting good news- GDP grows by 8.2 percent and consumer confidence number exceeds projections- can't seem to move the averages past the trading range. According to the Barometer, the plot shows the market right at the bear-bull line, any negative days could cause more of a pullback or correction. Good economical data Wednesday could move traders to push stock a little higher- but with the new terror warning, it still is hard to believe that traders are willing to put-on large positions going into holiday-weekend. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

 

11/24/03 Monday-

9:14 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:34 AM ET- Market gets underway with a positive surge with the indices posting a 1 to 1.9 percent gain. Groups that are doing well this morning are the small and mid capitalization stocks with large cap stocks lagging somewhat. In the broader market, advancing issues are over declining issues by better than 2:1. The Barometer models are continuing to search for a firm trend that might break the negative pattern of the past couple of weeks. The Barometer forecast currently indicates a mostly negative market place going forward.

2:56 PM ET- After the initial burst by the averages this morning, the indices continue the day going sideways. Just below the highs of the session, the DOW is up 107, S&P up by 13, and the NASDAQ up by 36. The Barometer models will pay attention to the last hour of trade to see if a firm trend can be confirmed.

4:35 PM ET- Indices run-up in early trading this morning and sags a tiny bit during mid-session, and has a pop at the end of the day to close with nice gains. The Barometer models detect a firming trend and indicates an upgrade of the bias to caution form negative. However, the forecast continues to indicate mostly negative for the time being.

6:10 PM ET- A positive day today keeps the Barometer-plot in bear territory. A bounce off the bear-bull line tends to be bullish if the market can continue Tuesday and confirm Monday's rally. A positive day Tuesday would give the bull camp a real celebration over Thanksgiving, especially if Wednesday can be as positive. The Barometer models will run this evening to see if the leading indicator needs to be changed.

10:45 PM ET- The Barometer forecast leading indicator was changed tonight to a neutral stance. "During the model run this evening, the data suggests that, even though that today's market was positive, the negative trend that was established more than two weeks ago, has now firmed."

 

Weekend-   

11/22/03 Saturday 12:58 PM ET- The week that was, saw the market continue to discount good economical and earnings reports but focuses mainly on terrorism. Major upturn in terrorism last weekend, got traders and investors on the defensive early in the week, as all the good news appears to be priced into stocks. commodities like oil and gold continue to advance, that, with the dollar and terror concerns keeps a lid on equities. The Barometer forecast was changed on Tuesday (11/18/03) to negative from caution- indicating further weakness in the market- possibly a pullback or correction. The leading indicator was changed to negative from neutral on Monday, 11/10/03- a negative on the leading indicator indicates a worsening market and a probable forecast change within 4 to 8 trade days. The DOW and S&P end the week with a 1.4 percent loss, while the NASDAQ ended with nearly a 2 percent loss (weekly percentage are calculated from the previous Friday's close).

11/23/03 Sunday 11:25 AM ET- The week opens with a hopeful-focus on the short holiday week. Barring terrorism news, the focus beside being a short week should be on a boatload of economical data coming Tuesday and Wednesday. Watch for reports like preliminary GDP, home sales data, sentiment/confidence reports, jobless data, beige book, and others that could move traders. With the U.S. market being closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and a half day session Friday, it will be unlike traders to take on large positions going into long holiday-weekend, especially with the increase of terrorism. The Barometer continues to indicate a negative environment.

 

11/21/03 Friday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:22 AM ET- Terrorism news continues to hold stocks at bay- buyers not willing to commit over the weekend. Not much in way of economical news today but will have a lot for traders to consider early next week. Unless terror reports keep up today, should have a slow but probably mostly negative market environment. The Barometer continues to indicate a negative environment.

4:30 PM ET- The DOW and S&P held to .1, and .2 percent gain- NASDAQ gains better than 1/2 percent on the day. Terrorism again filled the news and it appears no one is willing to make big commitments going into the weekend and with a holiday week come up. Broader market outperformed the indices, for the most part.

 

11/20/03 Thursday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open- terrorism concerns being focused on this morning. Jobless claims data keeps negative market in check.

10:44 AM ET- Terrorism concerns sends the stock market down in early trade. Major averages decline early but recover to near the flat line as terror concerns, both abroad and in the U.S., take center stage this morning. At 10:35 ET Dow and S&P off by .4, and .2, the NASDAQ is flat. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a negative bias.

3:04 PM ET- Stocks comeback to near flat in the last hour of trade. Averages down sharply this morning only to trend back and enter positive territory. With an hour to go, the indices hang close to unchanged, as good and bad news mostly offset each other and translate into little change. Small capitalization stocks seem to be benefiting as the other groups are mostly unchanged. The Barometer continues to indicate a negative market environment going forward.

4:30 PM ET- Stocks dive in the last hour today as bad news finally takes its toll. Market sold off this morning on terror concerns only to see a steady trend back into positive territory. After lunch the indices began trending out of positive territory and at about 3:10 ET the sell off began. The DOW lost .7, NASDAQ .9, and the underperforming S&P lost 1.1 percent.

 

11/19/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:39 AM ET- Stocks rebound from days of losses on less terrorism news- but upbeat housing data gets buyers motivated. At 11:30 AM ET, DOW and S&P up .5 percent, and the NASDAQ up .6 percent- just slightly off the highs of the morning. The Barometer, changed last evening, now indicates a negative market environment with a negative Barometer bias.

3:28 PM ET- Inside an hour to go and stocks continue to rebound. At 3:15 ET, the major indices are up .7, .8, and .9 percent for the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ, respectively. The Barometer forecast, changed last evening, indicates negative market environment going forward.

4:20 PM ET- The lack of bad news and continued good economical news send the averages higher after several days of selling. The DOW and S&P end .7 and .8 percent higher- slightly off the highs of the day and the NASDAQ ends with a one percent gain. Broader market gains- advancing issues outpace decliners. The Barometer models are looking for a firm trend- none developed today. The Barometer indicate a negative market going forward.

 

11/18/03 Tuesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. An unchanged CPI- as expected- and a rebound from yesterday, indicates a mostly positive open.

11:17 AM ET- Stocks drift lower after good start, partially on GE upgrade to a buy and a general cooling down of geopolitical news. At 11:06 ET, the major indexes are within .2 percent of the flat line. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:29 PM ET- Indices hug the no change line for most of the day, but since have weakened, as trading approaches the last hour. Advancing issues were outperforming decliners but they too have soften and are now close to 1:1 ratio. The market continues to discount good news, leaving open bad news to affect traders- if that should occur. At 2:11 ET, DOW and S&P off by .5%, NASDAQ off by .7%.

4:31 PM ET- Indices slide in the last half-hour to close at the lows of the day. A continued sense that the market is at high levels, as good news continues to be ignored. Additionally, commodities are becoming a concern, as oil and gold continue the trek upwards. The DOW and S&P lose .9 percent and the NASDAQ, now under 1900, losses 1.5 percent. The Barometer indicate caution at this time.

6:56 PM ET- Negative boundary begins its turn down- If Wednesday is a negative day, that would indicate further weakness... Today's Barometer-plot places the market at the point we entered bear territory, some 6 weeks ago. It would be reasonable to expect that Wednesday to be a positive market day to test this resistance/support line...

10:53 PM ET- Models are ran each trade day and evening that analyze market performance. The last run of the evening is around 9:30 PM ET, when the final data for the day can be analyzed for potential changes to the Barometer forecast. As expected, the Barometer model data indicates a forecast change to a more negative market environment going forward. All the indicators and metrics seem to be pointing to a lower market (the major indices)- possibly a pullback or correction. There is no way of knowing the extent of the negative environment, but the data suggests a negative market for at least one to two weeks. This is only a guess at this point, there is no way of knowing until additional data can be analyzed. The Barometer now indicates negative with a negative bias.

 

Weekend-

11/17/03 Monday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

11:53 AM ET- Market gets off to a tough start with the major averages heading south in late morning trade. An increase in terrorism is taking the spotlight as well as the mutual fund mishandling problem. Overseas markets sold off today, reportedly because of increase terror concern. At 11:30 ET, the DOW was off 100+, S&P off 12, and the NASDAQ off better than 30. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

12:38 PM ET- As was suggested by the Barometer, good and great news, for the past several weeks, has been discounted by traders. This normally means if good news can't move traders to buy, it must mean the good stuff has been priced into stocks. When that happens, the market is open to attack by bad news- case in point- all the talk of increase terrorism over the weekend and the mutual fund muck. Now what is important is how much more bad news is out there, and how long before bad news gets discounted. The strength of this early bull market will be known by how resilient the market is when it tries to make a comeback from current news. In the meantime, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:29 PM ET- Market makes a comeback and closes well off the lows of the day. The DOW -58, S&P -7, and the NASDAQ -21.

6:58 PM ET- A down day today causes the Barometer-plot to decline and take the positive boundary with it. This configuration indicates a probable pullback- a negative stock market.

10:33 PM ET- The Barometer models, late night run, indicates no change to the forecast at this time. The only lacking indicator is the negative boundary, which is currently moving sideways. That indicator would need to weaken (chart would show the plot begin a decline) before the metrics would be in place to indicate a probable pullback. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The leading indicator continues to indicate additional weak market days ahead.

 

11/15/03 Saturday 12:47 PM ET- For the week, the major indices basically go nowhere, although the NASDAQ closes with a near 2 percent loss. Mostly good economical and earnings news continues to have little positive effect over the market, as favorable reports are being discounted. Fears of a mid-2004 rate hike is beginning to take center stage, as more and more talk of the Fed increasing the current 1 percent interest rate is becoming a focal point. The Barometer shows the March 2003 advance into bear territory has come to a halt as the chart shows new resistance has been created- the market seems to be consolidating or topping out. The leading indicator indicates a pullback or correction possibly days away. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

11/16/03 Sunday 12:29 PM ET- We are at the end of 3rd. quarter earnings, and even though earnings have appeared to be good overall, many analysts believe that this has already been priced into stocks. The focus will be more economical data including; business inventory, CPI, housing and building data, the Philadelphia Fed report, and jobless data. Towards the end of the week, the focus will be on the approaching U.S. Thanksgiving holiday- the following week. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The leading indicator indicates a pullback or correction could be close, especially if Monday and Tuesday are negative.

 

11/14/03 Friday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- flat start.

12:35 PM ET- Stocks got a good start on mixed economical data only to see the gains disappear shortly after the market got underway. Fears of a rate increase by the Fed seems to be at center stage today. If the economical recovery gets to hot, the Fed, at some point, will come in and raise interest rates- currently at 1 percent. Thinking might be if the Fed raises rates as early as mid 2004, then in terms of pricing, a rate hike may not be priced in the market at this point. The market is forward-looking by about 6 to 9 months (timeframe for a rate hike) and if rates begin rising mid 2004, we may see sell on the rumor soon. So traders thinking might be- the better the economical data the worse it might be- as that could help the Fed make that rate increase call. Market psychology may be changing- sell on what you would think is good recovery news and rally on news that keeps the Fed at bay. The reason traders might sell on rumors is that rumors have a habit of coming true (in some form or fashion), and when the facts come out that don't seem to be as bad as the rumor, they buy it back- they buy because the news would have been priced into the market during the rumor phase. So hold on, we will be entering a different kind of market (timeframe unknown)- the kind of market you see when sell-offs and rallies get real volatile.

4:52 PM ET- Indices dive at mid afternoon and close near the lows of the session. With mixed economical data to contend with and the growing focus on rate hike, profits were taken to close the week that saw the DOW and S&P close near flat and the NASDAQ closed with a 2 percent loss, all from previous Friday's close. The Barometer continues to indicate caution, while its leading indicator shows negative- the leading indicator leads the forecast and suggests that a pullback or correction is near. 

 

11/13/03 Thursday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Initial jobless claims grew but still within expectation.

11:56 AM ET- Stocks start out negative, but have trended off the lows of the morning. Wal-Mart (WMT) reported a penny EPS less than expected and is trading down. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- the leading indicator is negative- meaning a more negative environment could be approaching.

2:35 PM ET- Site Information. We changed the bias definition. It is no longer an indication of how today's trading is proceeding. It now reflects, more accurately, the trends of trading throughout the day and how trends precede forecast changes.

3:43 PM ET- Stocks try a comeback in the last hour but run out of steam as the indices drop back. Dell to report earnings after the close and could inspire traders in after-hours as well as Friday. Friday traders will mull over a lot of economical data including PPI, retail sales, and sentiment report.

4:40 PM ET- Market under water all day- makes an attempt at a comeback but fails and finally gets within shouting-range to end the day slightly lower. Dell reports it met expectation on early release of earnings, Dell slightly lower in after-hours.

9:59 PM ET- We changed the bias definition to more accurately reflect how the indicator works in measuring stock market trends throughout the trade day. Trends are important, the models consider trends, as they are instrumental in determining forecast metrics. To read the bias definition, click this link.

 

11/12/03 Wednesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a mild, neutral open.

11:22 AM ET- A positive start at the near bottom of the trading range- the S&P and DOW posting slight gains with the NASDAQ leading the way with a .7 percent advance. With no news for traders, it again looks like a slow sideways but possibly positive day. At this time, the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

2:42 PM ET- An updated market memo indicates a greater probability that the major indices could continue sideways- a tight trading range. It also identifies the labor market as the last lagging indicator. "The only lagging indicator is the labor market, and it appears to be strengthening. Traders and investors will keep a watch on this indicator..."

3:43 PM ET- Stocks continue trending positive in the last hour of trade as the lower end of the trading range holds up. The Barometer bias was changed because the models found a firm trend.

4:24 PM ET- Stocks advance today with strong showing of the major indexes as they trended positive all day to close above 1 percent- NASDAQ closes with over a 2 percent gain. The bias was changed to caution, this afternoon, because the models picked up a firm trend of the indices at the lower end of the trading range. The forecast now indicates caution with a cautionary (neutral) bias.

11:49 PM ET- Site Information. We changed the definition of the bias. It is no longer an indication of how today's trading is proceeding. It now reflect, more accurately, the trends of trading and how the trends precede forecast changes.

 

11/11/03 Tuesday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11:36 AM ET- The indices are dancing the Texas two step- market kicks down, goes sideways (range trading). A negative open on lack of - - - -. "Fill in the blanks"- its something to do while the market does its thing. Light volume as the broader market is losing with majority of issues declining. The Barometer bias was changed to negative near the close yesterday and the leading indicator was changed late yesterday evening to negative. The Barometer now reads caution with a negative bias. The leading indicator downgrade indicates an increase risk that the market (the major indices) to pullback or possibly enter a channel, a sideways moving market. At 11:15 Eastern, indices were improving, closing in on the flat line.

2:47 PM ET- Inside of two hours to go, the indices are in a tight range moving sideways. At 2:23, the losses are .1%, .2%, and .5% for the S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ, respectively.

4:44 PM ET- Market can't get out of first gear. Indices continue to drift lower as the major indexes end flat for the day. The broader market ends with declining issues beating out advancing issues 2 to 1. New issues making 52 week highs are shrinking from last weeks triple digit winners. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

 

11/10/03 Monday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral open- a slight chance of the major indices opening mixed.

11:05 AM ET- Stocks got off to a negative start as traders, investors, and analysts are debating pullback. With little to no economical news, the averages are trending negative in early trading. With the increase in terror concerns and stocks appearing to be overvalued, sellers are dominating. At 10:55 Eastern, the DOW was off 25, NASDAQ off 11, and the S&P off by 3. The Barometer continues to indicate caution, while the models continue looking for a firm trend.

2:44 PM ET- Indices drag bottom as traders gear up for last hour of trade. The indices continue the pattern of run stocks up or down in the morning and move mostly sideways the remainder of the day. With over an hour to go, the indices are down .3, .4, and .8 percent, for the S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ, respectively.

4:25 PM ET- Poor start to the week, as no news and no notable earnings equates to a drift down. DOW and S&P close 1/2 percent off and the NASDAQ ends near 1.5 percent down (market was still settling) . The bias was changed to negative near the end of the session because a firming trend broke to the downside during the last half-hour of the session. The Barometer now reads caution with a negative bias.

6:02 PM ET- With today's negative action, the Barometer plot has crossed both the positive and negative boundaries. This caused the Barometer leading-indicator to indicate a much greater chance of a pullback or correction.

11:05 PM ET- Tonight's stock market model processing indicates a change to the leading indicator. The leading indicator is a measurement of market performance over time. With today's negative performance, an atypical crossing of the Barometer-plot, of the positive and negative boundaries, has caused this trigger. This means the probability of a pullback has increased. The Barometer forecast reads caution with a negative bias. Note: atypical crossings are not as reliable as typical crossings- atypical crossings are less reliable.

 

Weekend-

11/8/03 Saturday 11:27 AM ET- corrected- The week started out with great expectations- got it, and ended with increase terror concerns- got it but didn't expect it. Good ISM reports, good employment rate and exceptional payroll data didn't really do a lot for the market, as the DOW and S&P ended nearly where they started but the NASDAQ advanced. It is evident that the good to great news is priced in and the bad news is not. Any bad news could have serious implications for stocks. Most analysts believe the value of stocks are high and it wouldn't take much for profiteers to take over the market. The DOW and S&P ended the week with a slight gain, while the NASDAQ ended with a very nice 2 percent advance, from Friday's closing (10/31/03). The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. 

11/9/03 Sunday 11:46 AM ET- This week sees little in way of economical data and there are a couple of potential market movers scheduled to report earnings. Starting Thursday on the economical calendar there is initial jobless claims followed by Friday's retail sales, Michigan sentiment, PPI, and a few others. Notable companies reporting this week are Wal-Mart, Dell, and Applied Materials. Discounting geological news, the light week could see the market sideways moving and probably hugging the flat line- unless traders focus on other events. Just to keep the market neutral to slightly negative it will take exceptional news- as good and great news are being discounted. The Barometer starts the week at caution.

 

11/7/03 Friday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Huge jump in payroll data should sponsor a positive open and day.

10:52 AM ET- Market got off to a great start this morning but since has trended down- indices still positive at 10:39 AM Eastern. Traders have a habit of reacting to good news after the fact and sometimes well after the fact. Traders could react to the great payrolls data later this afternoon. However, it would be a negative sign if traders discount this news- we are still in need of a pullback or correction. In the meantime, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:51 PM ET- With a little over an hour left, the market is experiencing a habitual pattern- move on the news and hug the flat line. The market continues to discount good to great news because many analysts say the news is already priced in. The DOW and S&P are slightly underwater and the NASDAQ is 7 points up in slow trading.

4:43 PM ET- Late day minor sell off on news (rumor) that the Government might be raising the terror alert. More like buyers holdup buying and the normal selling took place, as the indices end down a slight .3 to .4 percent on low volume. The indices trended down all day with a minor upswing after lunch only to continue the decent and sell off near the close. The Barometer continues to see the market OK but the near-term still indicates caution.

5:56 PM ET- Traders and investors have a couple of days to mull over all the data and to decide on their next move. Got some important earnings reports next week that could inspire buyers- less we have anymore rumors to contend with. Charts indicate resistance just inside bear territory and will need to be taken out if this rally is to continue. Also remember (how could you forget) a pullback is still viable and the leading indicator shows a tight range- no room for many more negative days.

 

11/6/03 Thursday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

12:54 PM ET- Market drops lower but the loss is less than .3% for the indices. Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Qualcomm (QCOM) report earnings and try to move the market but traders are real focused on the employment rate due out Friday. It is widely expected to be 6.1%. Meanwhile, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

3:09 PM ET- At 2:51, a little more than a hour form the close, indices recover to show a small gain for the NASDAQ and S&P, but the DOW is slightly under with a loss of .1%. All the talk is about what the employment rate will come in at- the report is scheduled for release early Friday. This one report could make the difference in market direction, rally Vs. pullback- stay tuned.

4:37 PM ET- Market acts like it priced in a better than expected payrolls data; employment rate and non-farm payroll data- due out Friday 8:30 AM ET. Any disappointment could cause problems for traders as these reports, if weak, could cause valuations (level of the market) to come under fire. Jobs is seen as one of the last keys to the recovery. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:53 PM ET- Try number 4. Market is positioned to rally or sell-off. All that is needed is strong payroll data and no bad news.

 

11/5/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a weak opening as traders await more economical data. Also on tap, after the close, Cisco Systems reports earnings and gives projections.

11:05 AM ET- Upbeat economical data- especially ISM services report (64.7 beats estimates) can't inspire traders, as the indices are lower on the news. At 10:53 the DOW is off by .5%, S&P down .7%, and the NASDAQ is off .9%. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias- soon to change when a firm trend develops.

2:40 PM ET- Major indices drag the bottom as little action by traders sees the market moving mostly sideways. There is enough of a firm trend to suggest that the positiveness that was in the market is mostly gone. Traders want to see American workers back to work. It is pretty well known that the economy is rebounding- lots of data suggest a strong economy going forward. But what isn't seen is jobs. Since a large part of the economy is personal spending- jobs must be created in order to sustain a recovery. Look for rallies on data that supports America back to work. The bias was changed in mid-afternoon to caution. The Barometer indicates caution.

4:25 PM ET- Market closes with a run to the flat line. S&P and NASDAQ made improvements all day from the morning lows but the DOW lagged and spent the day near the lows only to make a run at 3:30. The DOW and S&P ended with slight loss and the NASDAQ ended just positive. Market now waits for Cisco Systems to report- Cisco closed with a percent gain- but still was settling.

5:55 PM ET- The leading indicator shows we are pretty much where we were yesterday as far as knowing the direction of the market. The bias was changed earlier this morning because of a more negative trend in the indices. The Barometer now indicates caution with a neutral bias.

 

11/4/03 Tuesday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11:37 AM ET- Market strolls along the unchanged level this morning as buyers and sellers await the next thing to trade on. Nearly all indices are within 1/2 percent of flat as slow trading continues. Not much in the way of financial or economical news for traders until the jobless initial claims report due out Thursday morning. On tap Wednesday is the ISM services report and factory orders with payroll and unemployment rate due out Friday. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:48 PM ET- Market gives up some territory and in doing so creates resistance. According to the Barometer, the market (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ) is either building in support for further advance into bear territory or has run-up against heavy resistance and is preparing to pullback. Of course both statements are true- Obviously at some point the market will advance past today's close. The question is when and will the market indices pullback before the rally continues. Right now (could change at any time) the Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

6:21 PM ET- With the weakness in the market today, a new resistance level was created. The next three days could tell us if a pullback is about to occur or if the market is ready to power-forward and continue the rally.

 

11/3/03 Monday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:03 AM ET- November starts out with a broad based rally with advancing issues outpacing declining issues about 3 to 1. DOW and S&P up .8 percent with the NASDAQ surging 1.5 percent. A blowout ISM PMI of 57 percent, well exceeds analysts forecast- number above 50 means manufacturing is expanding. The bias was changed earlier to positive from caution. The Barometer now indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:22 PM ET- Market ends in positive territory with a 2 to 1 ratio of advancing stocks over decliners. Market rallied on bullish economical data and the continued mounting evidence that the economy and corporate America will expand in 2004. The DOW ended up .6 percent, S&P up .8 percent, and the NASDAQ ended up 1.8 percent. The Barometer bias was changed to positive from caution earlier this morning.

5:50 PM ET- The leading indicator has turned positive from its neutral (cautionary) state because the indication from the models are, that the market could continue rallying this week- especially if Tuesday is a positive day. "we could get a forecast change and another leg up on the market if Tuesday's market is positive."

 

Weekend-

11/1/03 Saturday 12:44 PM ET- The week in review saw the stock market get off to a great start on news of Bank of America's acquisition of FleetBoston. But as would be the case for almost all week, markets trended off the highs to close near flat for Monday. Tuesday's rally on the Fed nearly guaranteeing no rate increase, drove buyers and stocks to new highs, almost- DOW within 2 points of YTD high. The remainder of the week saw stocks hold close to flat with a slight gain to end Halloween week. The Barometer models are searching for a firm, positive or negative, trend to develop- otherwise, the forecast will continue to indicate caution.

11/1/03 Saturday 3:58 PM ET- For the next 1 to 2 hours, we will be performing tests on the new Barometer Leading Indicator 'bug' implementation. The upper-right corner of the browser screen is the 'bug' display that gives you a quick reference to the Barometer status. We will be testing to make sure it works correctly. There will be a notification when the test is complete.

11/1/03 Saturday 5:47 PM ET- The Barometer Leading Indicator 'bug' image is now operational. When the Leading Indicator status changes, the image on the bug will be updated to reflect the change- currently, the Barometer Leading Indicator is at caution. See the below snippet for more information on the change.

11/2/03 Sunday 10:45 AM ET- With 3rd. quarter earnings winding down, the focus will be more economical data this week. Included in this weeks data; ISM PMI to be released at 10:00 AM ET Monday, ISM non-manufacturing and factory orders Wednesday. Later in the week jobless claims, payroll, and unemployment rate along with others. Enough for traders and investors to mull and react on. Considering how far the market has come since March, look for any discounting of good news, as this could be a sign of excessive levels in the market when good news is past over without a positive reaction. We are still in need of a pullback and any negative surprise could setoff selling. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

10/31/03 Friday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a mixed open, possibly turning positive soon after.

11:03 AM ET- At 10:45, market turned mixed with the indices within .2 percent of flat. Mostly good economical data has traders searching for the next move. Stocks might move near sideways today with possibly a more positive direction change during the last hour of trade. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:51 PM ET- At mid-afternoon, market major indexes hold a slight gain with little movement seen. The DOW, positive from the start, is up .3 percent, S&P up 1/2 percent and the NASDAQ up .2 percent. Being the last trading day of the month, activity may pickup near the close. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:25 PM ET- Expected positive turn at the close did not materialize. Indices close neutral, within 1/2 percent of the open. Stock advance/declines end nearly even with a slight positive edge on the NYSE.

5:24 PM ET- Charts are updated, but again show little change for the past three days.

 

10/30/03 Thursday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a positive start on exceptional GDP data.

10:52 AM ET- Advance look at 3rd. quarter GDP sees the economy growing at an annual rate of 7.2 percent. That fuels a surge at the open. Also fueling the surge is the continuing improvement in initial jobless claims, claims decrease 5,000 in the previous week with the moving average still below the magic 400,000- economists see this number as a watermark that suggests the labor market bottoming. Indices since the open have retreated and at 10:30 AM ET, are negative and trending lower. The bias temporarily at positive, has reverted back to caution. The Barometer now reads caution.

2:44 PM ET- Market rallies at the open- gets sold off by profit takers- and since, has bottomed an slowly moves sideways with an up tic. It appears that profit takers come in on rallies and buyers buy on dips- ingredients for a tight trading range- another possible sideways moving market. The Barometer models have not yet picked up on a firm trend- thought we might have one this morning but it quickly diminished. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:36 PM ET- Major indexes end mixed- DOW slightly higher, S&P and NASDAQ slightly lower- all within .2 percent of flat for the day. The rally on GDP blowout number of 7.2 evaporated this afternoon, as profit takers see a ceiling on the market. Are they right? Time will tell- Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:50 PM ET- Charts have been updated- but show little change from yesterday as a neutral market doesn't change the Barometer much.

 

10/29/03 Wednesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:42 AM ET- Market hangs loose as the indices hug neutral. Buyers take a brake after yesterday's nice rally as they now look for more economical data to justify the run-up. As of 10:33, DOW and S&P off by 2, and NASDAQ down almost 5. Most likely will trade sideways, near flat, until more data or another news item catch traders eye. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:36 PM ET- Slow news day has stocks drift up to close with slight gain. After yesterday's rally, it is a good sign to see the market drift higher as it waits for more fuel- news. Thursday will see news- advance look at GDP, initial jobs data, and release of FOMC notes from previous Fed meeting. Could see the bias change especially if the positive trend keeps up. Until then, the Barometer indicates caution.

6:30 PM ET- With the Fed on hold, good earnings and projections, and with the labor market stabilizing- we could see this mini correction pattern develop that could take this market higher without a full pullback. Remember where we were 18-months ago when things were turning bad- and got a lot worse- then the major indexes were higher than today. And now it appears there is a foundation for the economy and things generally look better than 18-months ago. With the last two days of positive sentiment, the Barometer-plot turns up and could press forward and pass above the positive boundary. This means the mini correction of the major market indexes could be over without a pullback...

 

10/28/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:57 AM ET- Stocks get off to another good start on day two of mergers and acquisitions and good economical data. The Fed meets today and is expected not to move rates but traders do look for any comments on how they see the economy and will pay attention to meeting jargon. The bias was changed earlier this morning on evidence that traders and investors attitude changed from last weeks negativity.

12:53 PM ET Corrected- Indices move mostly sideways as it's now a wait and see for the Fed. Fed watch is on as most expect no rate cut now and probably for the next six months. The important thing is what the Fed might say- traders will want to know the current standing on the Federal Reserve stance on the economy. The Fed is scheduled to announce no change to rates at 2:15 PM. The Barometer indicates caution.

3:04 PM ET- Fed leaves rates unchanged at one percent. It appears that interest rates will be unchanged for possibly 6 to 9 months. In the Fed statement they said the evidence accumulated over the inter-meeting period confirms that spending is firming and the labor market appears to be stabilizing… a minor probability of a fall in inflation that which exceeds a rise in inflation…

4:21 PM ET- Stocks rally on Fed's outlook helped by good economical data and M&A activity. It appears that the Federal Reserve won't be changing rates any time soon- possibly for 6 to 9 months. They do see a minor risk in the fall of inflation but only to the extent that it outweighs inflation. They see the labor market and economy stabilizing. All in all, traders and investors applaud the good news of the day. It will be important for this bullishness to carry over to Wednesday's trade. The Barometer models point out that this enthusiasm must carry over to end last weeks sell off and to advance the indices well past October highs.

6:03 PM ET- Even though today's mighty rally- beware of the bears out there. This latest bullishness is challenging bear territory. The position of the Barometer-plot indicates at least several more days before a forecast change from caution, because of being in "no mans land", the area between positive and negative.

 

10/27/03 Monday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:39 AM ET- Indices jump at the start on news that Bank of America will acquire FleetBoston in a reportedly 47 billion, or 45 dollar per share deal. Even though the market had a great start, the indices are well off the highs of the morning. Also adding to the good start is the better than expected housing data. The Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias.

2:30 PM ET- Market is content to move sideways as hungry traders look for more news. The Barometer bias, now negative, could change this afternoon if the market develops a firm trend. The last hour is very important in trend development. The Barometer models pay particular attention to the last hour of trading as they incorporate the data to determine changes in the forecast. Currently, the Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias.

4:53 PM ET- Major indices trend off the highs of the morning, almost sideways, as the good news of the open wears off. Insufficient data for the Barometer models to determine a firm trend- will have to gather more data in Tuesday's session. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

6:03 PM ET- Good news couldn't keep the buyers in rally mode- they need more confirmation that the economy and companies are going to do much better in 2004... The Barometer

leading indicator shows that for a pullback to be aborted, some great news from the Fed or economical data is needed or the selling that we saw last week could continue.

 

Weekend-

10/25/03 Saturday 1:42 PM ET- Market gives back almost all the gains of the past three weeks. The indices end Friday's session just about where they were three weeks ago, on Friday October 3rd. With the DOW and S&P flat for the three weeks and the NASDAQ losing about 1 percent for that period. Upbeat economical data- showing U.S. economy recovering, and great earnings had little effect on the market. About the only thing that would have moved stocks higher would have been if earnings and projections were extremely bullish, but they weren't, they came in better than expected- but no real blowouts. With the market run-up since March and a vacuum of extremely bullish news, stocks had one direction in mind- down. Pullbacks are extremely important in keeping stocks healthy. Support and resistance levels need to be tested and valuations need to be kept reasonable. A retrace of gains looks to be in order- just how much of a sell off can be expected is unknown. If this is the beginning of a pullback (and that hasn't been confirmed yet) it will be obvious. Just watch the Barometer charts and keep informed. 

10/26/03 Sunday 11:15 AM ET- A new week, fresh economical data, and the Fed meeting. A lot going on this week that can change market direction in an instant. Since good news is being discounted, it will take great 'surprise' news to change market direction- which at this point appears to be down. Don't forget one thing, it is very important for the market to correct- a healthy market 'times-out' and backs over previous gains to build support. We don't know if this is a pullback yet, we should be able to tell within the next couple of days. A pullback will come at some point, now would be better than later. The Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias. 

10/26/03 Sunday 1:25 PM ET- Site Alert: In order to display the more important elements of the  forecast, we are changing the forecast bug to that end. The forecast bug (upper-right corner) has changed to make room for the Barometer leading indicator. We took 'Next week' indicator off the bug entirely and moved 'Today' and 'This week' down one row and they now occupy the lower two rows of the bug. The first row (now dashes) will contain the Barometer leading indicator and is scheduled to be installed next weekend. The Barometer leading indicator is one of the more important indicators of the Barometer. It can lead changes in the market as much as 4 to 8 trade days before the market (major indices) actually change. We hope this additional information on each page will make it easier for traders and investors to keep track of immanent market changes.

 

10/24/03 Friday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a negative open. It is expected that traders and investment managers to continue moving some sales to cash (profit taking) this morning.

11:00 AM ET- And the beat goes on! Selling at the open moves the indexes down 1 to 1.5 percent but are now just off the lows of the morning and trending slowly upward. Some are using Microsoft as the reason for the declining market but most see the market somewhat overvalued and it is simply time to take some profits. We could tread water until fresh economical data is released next week with the all important ISM PMI report out early on November 3rd. Also on tap next week is the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday.

4:30 PM ET- Market depressed all day but ends well off the lows. Indices close .3, .5 and 1.1 percent lower for the DOW, S&P, NASDAQ, respectively. Actually, indices close at the highs of the day as traders gear up for next week's fresh economical data and the Fed meeting scheduled for Tuesday.

6:08 PM ET- We are making our way through the Barometer market model data and at this point in the analysis, it shows a forecast change that will take place later this evening. The Barometer-plot fell through the positive boundary causing a forecast trigger. The positive boundary turned lower while the negative boundary continues upward...

11:16 PM ET-  Corrected Market Alert: The forecast has changed to caution from positive because of the recent negative environment in the market. Although the indices moved well off the lows of today's session, according to the Barometer leading indicator, trading in a positive environment changed last Friday, the 17th., as indicated on the leading indicator chart. Since traders are discounting good news and the market seems to be overvalued, a pullback was indicated. The other factor involved is the Barometer-plot trending into bear territory without support. This pullback, if it continues, will test traders and investors resolve by challenging the bear-bull support-resistance line. This could also be a pullback false start. If that is the case, a string of positive days in the market will occur this coming week and the Barometer-plot would then be back above the positive boundary. By Wednesday, we should have a much clearer picture of market direction. The Barometer now reads caution with a negative bias.

 

10/23/03 Thursday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a negative open- momentum selling carried over from yesterday. Bias was changed from caution to negative earlier this morning.

10:51 AM ET- At 10:28 AM ET, indices well off the lows of the morning- helped by a continued decrease in initial jobless claims. The bias, changed earlier this morning, was changed to negative as a result of overseas markets and U.S. futures. The bias could be changed back to caution if the market settles down.

12:20 PM ET- At noon, indices hang tough- but under water. Recovering from yesterday's selling, traders today could be positioning for possible positive market on Friday depending on what Microsoft reports (1Q 2004) and has to say about business going forward.

4:27 PM ET- Market ends with a 'surprise' near unchanged day. Just about everyone thought today would be a continuation of Wednesday's market, with an additional large loss. Appears traders are positioned for Microsoft earnings- and more importantly, what their projections for the upcoming quarters are. Models are running to see if there are any changes to the forecast- should have results later this evening.

6:22 PM ET- "If the market can put together a positive performance Friday and into next week, we could see the pullback aborted. If Friday's performance is negative, that would give credence to the pullback- we could look for more negative days"...

 

10/22/03 Wednesday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a negative open on concerns that stocks may be over priced and that a pullback is overdue.

11:00 AM ET- Market takes it on the chin- good economical data plus good earnings equals "sell on the news", as traders point out that the good is already priced into stocks. The market is looking into 2004 and the concern is that they are uncertain what 2004 will bring. Is this the beginning of the pullback? To early to tell. The charts tell us that the mood has changed and since there is not really great news abounding, indices tend to travel in the direction of least resistance- down. If a pullback is underway, the bias will change to negative- but until a firm trend develops, the Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

2:54 PM ET- An updated Market Memo shows traders are concerned with current valuations-  and how earnings and the economy will play out in 2004. "Unless the economical recovery 'data' waffles or there is a geopolitical concern, direction will most likely be determined by company statements and projections."

4:32 PM ET- Market takes a hit as the indices end lower by 1.5 to 2.25 percent. Prompted by concerns that the good news is already factored into stocks and the market is due for a pullback. Your wondering why is the forecast still showing positive? It's because the forecast is not a one day forecast but projects over a 5 day period. But if this continues the forecast will change. But for now, the Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

6:04 PM ET- Charts have been updated and are available. Even with today's sell-off, the Barometer chart shows sentiment still positive- the plot well inside bear territory. The full view Barometer leading indicator shows an over extended market that could give credence to a pullback or sideways moving market. The channel chart shows there is still a chance (if the market is positive Thursday) of the market continuing the advance as early as Thursday/Friday- as the plot has not yet passed through the boundary. Although you might be cheering for the end of the sell off- for this March rally to continue healthy, we need a pullback to retrace past gains.

 

10/21/03 Tuesday-

9:17 AM ET-  Look for a neutral, possibly mixed open.

10:41 AM ET-  Indices hit early 'V' bottom an begin advancing with the NASDAQ leading the way. The Barometer models have yet to detect a firm trend and such, continue to indicate positive with a cautionary bias. Afternoon trading will be important in determining direction, especially in the last hour of trade.

1:07 PM ET- NASDAQ continues to outperform- in positive territory all day long. While the S&P has been positive half of the session, but the DOW has been negative all day- for the most part, because of AT&T. Afternoon trading may give a clue if a pullback is at hand or if the market is getting primed for a rally.

4:36 PM ET- There was a mixed ending today for the stock market with no clear direction for the major indices. There was buying at the NASDAQ but selling at the DOW-  as problems with Telecommunications stocks kept the DOW down. S&P ended the day neutral. The Barometer models continue to search for a firm trend but to no avail. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

6:43 PM ET corrected- Amazon reports a 33 percent increase in net sales but seems to have disappointed shareholders. Other companies reporting earnings, generally report positive results- no indication of a Wednesday market mover although futures, at this hour, point to a negative start Wednesday. The Barometer, unchanged, indicates positive with a cautionary bias- but forecasts are always subject to change.

 

10/20/03 Monday-

9:22 AM ET-  Look for a neutral-to slightly positive open.

10:47 AM ET-  Market gets off to a slow start as good earnings reports from Citigroup and others do little to inspire traders. Indices opened positive but since have retreated to hang close to the flat line. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

2:48 PM ET-  At 2:15 PM ET, major indexes are as flat as you can get. Stocks did spend the noon hour in positive territory only to have them retreat and begin diving back to the opening prices. With little in the way of economical news this week and earnings reports that don't inspire, we could be looking at more sideways movement in the near term.

4:47 PM ET-  Buyers scramble the last hour of trade to move indices to new session highs. No apparent reason for the buying- guess it just sank in that things are looking better. Or could be traders saw that the minor weakness today in the market could lead one to believe that there is more upside potential left. It could be viewed as a good sign that in a vacuum of news market advances. But don't forget a correction could be right around the corner. That is why the Barometer indicates positive but with a cautionary bias.

6:03 PM ET-  The Barometer leading indicator continues to show an advancing market- that could change soon. Markets cannot continually advance without a correction- it's not healthy. "For now, it still looks healthy. All three plots are moving upward at an angle- this configuration shows a positive market"...

 

Weekend-

10/18/03 Saturday 12:24 PM ET- The major indices end the week nearly where they started. The DOW ends with about 1/2 percent gain and the NASDAQ and S&P end nearly flat for the week. Mostly good economical data was discounted while some not so good earnings gave traders and investors reason to take profits. The economic recovery seems to be on track and the markets may have priced all the good news in, as the rally that started in March seems to be coming to a head- with a pullback that appears to be underway. The Barometer forecast was changed to positive because of the positive plot trend above bear resistance.

And the bias was changed to caution as the Barometer Leading-Indicator began retreating to the positive boundary and appeared to be over extended.

10/18/03 Saturday 2:48 PM ET- NYSE 16:30 Oct 17, 2003 NYSE CLOSING FRIDAY, OCT. 17, 2003 INDICES FOR TODAY HIGH LOW LAST UP DOWN COMP: 556.90 549.90 551.21 4.62 INDU: 685.97 677.04 678.36 5.94 TRAN 484.17 479.53 480.46 2.92 UTIL 245.98 243.45 244.21 0.84 FINC: 625.32 616.94 619.11 5.52 COMMON ISSUES TRADED UP DOWN UNCHANGED 2.7...

10/19/03 Sunday 12:55 PM ET-  Ready for a new week? with little economical data to focus on, buyers probably will sit on the sidelines- that leaves sellers to dominate. The further the market advances without a meaningful pullback (correction) the more dangerous it gets for the bull camp. The Barometer Leading-Indicator shows room for a healthy pullback that could last several weeks. Earning season, well underway, can obviously have an affect on buyers and sellers. This week more companies including, Amazon, L-3 Communications, Microsoft, Citigroup and other banks and financials will continue the parade of earnings. Watch the forecast bug (all pages top-right) for changes. The Barometer indicates positive with a cautionary bias.

10/19/03 Sunday 1:53 PM ET-  Are you an active trader? Active investor? Neither? But you want to get into the next bull market? You can by accumulating stocks or shares of funds. You can buy stocks from ShareBuilder- $4. goes along ways- check it out. You can also buy stock directly from companies themselves. It's called buy stock direct and DRIP. "You can buy stocks directly from some companies yourself cutting out the middle-guy (brokers and planners)". Best of all it's virtually free- Some very well known companies allow anyone to by stock of their company- it's a service of their Investor Relation Department- Try it.

 

10/17/03 Friday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly negative open.

11:10 AM ET- Indices pullback in early morning trade as the Barometer Leading-Indicator shows an extended run-up in the stock market over the past two weeks. According to Barometer methodology, a correction or a more negative environment is needed to keep the March rally going. The models are looking to this afternoons trading to see if the negative environment continues and develops into a firm trend. But for now, the Barometer currently indicates positive with a positive bias.

12:01 PM ET- Major indexes continue the trek lower on good economical data released earlier this morning. Data that continues to support the idea the recovery is underway. A pullback is expected and could continue until some news comes along that gets traders back in a buying mood. The Barometer bias, currently positive, could change if a firm trend develops later in the afternoon.

4:15 PM ET- Profit takers rule as stocks fallback but end off the lows of the day. Good economical data is overridden by "sell on the news" mentality. Meaning, indices are about 20 to 40 percent higher than in March and most of the good news is already priced in. Thus, no real good news triggers selling- a pullback. The Barometer bias was changed at the close to caution, but the Barometer maintains a positive stance.

5:43 PM ET- A slight pullback in the stock market could be at hand. The Leading-Indicator shows either a pause (negative market for a couple of days) or we could see a pullback  lasting more than a couple of days- possibly weeks.

 

10/16/03 Thursday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start. Jobless claims and CPI data released seem to indicate a firming economy. Barometer indicates positive.

11:25 AM ET- NASDAQ and S&P recovering early morning loss, but it appears the DOW is being held down by IBM and Caterpillar. Mostly good economical data can't inspire traders and investor to bid stocks higher. For the past several weeks good news has led to advances, but it seems good news is now being discounted. Could be a sign of a pullback when good news no longer can produce positive momentum. So if we get no news or good news that does little for traders, watch out for bad news, bad news can take the market down fast, depending on the severity. Currently, the Barometer indicates positive.

3:02 PM ET- Regional manufacturing shows improvement… Indexes for new orders and shipments have risen… Employment on the rise… Read the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook for October.

4:37 PM ET- Broader market recovers, DOW slips under- pressured by IBM and Caterpillar- they get sold-off. With continual data streaming in, daily, that the recovery is underway, buyers comeback into the market to end stocks higher. The Barometer continues to indicate positive.

 

10/15/03 Wednesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a positive start on good economical data and Intel's bullish earnings and outlook.

11:45 AM ET- Traders got underway this morning with a positive open and then a small pullback ensued as the indices currently are mixed and hugging the flat line. Intel's (INTC) expected good earnings and outlook has contributed to the recent advance in the market since March, as this news has already been priced in. A pullback is anticipated to test traders resolve and when it does occur, could take market sentiment down to Barometer resistance levels (bear- bull resistance line on the chart) to test worthiness of the latest gains. The Barometer, changed last evening, now indicates positive with a positive bias.

4:57 PM ET- Major indexes end slightly off- nearly halfway between the highs and lows of the day. IBM meets earnings expectations but slightly misses revenue projections. They say they are beginning to see signs that the economy is stabilizing and plan to create 10,000 new positions in 2004, according to their press release. Meanwhile, other companies have reported earnings with a mostly positive outcome.

6:15 PM ET- According to the Barometer models, today's market action was neutral- sideways moving for stocks and the indexes. Each day the models continually look for a firm positive or negative trend. If one is not found, the models default to sideways moving- a neutral market. The Barometer indicates positive with a positive bias.

 

10/14/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- to possible negative open.

10:55 AM ET- At 10:27 AM ET, indices are slightly negative and holding close to the unchanged line. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias but could change depending on today's market action and reaction to Intel's earnings and forward looking statement after the close. Traders are looking for a market mover and up to this point has not found anything to rally around.

2:14 PM ET- With nearly two hours to go, major indexes recover morning losses and jump to post afternoon gains. Market waits on Intel's 3rd. quarter earnings and more importantly what Intel sees for the upcoming quarters. Intel to release earnings after the close and begin their conference call at 5:30 PM ET.

4:30 PM ET- Ok Intel. Market has paved the way for better times. How say you? It's time for Intel to step up to the plate and report earnings and tell us how they see the next couple of quarters. A good word or two will go along ways in justifying these levels. DOW 10,000 and NASDAQ 2,000 are just around the corner. Although these are not technical levels, they do represent at least a psychological barrier. Intel conference call is scheduled for 5:30 PM ET.

5:48 PM ET- Another positive day sends the Barometer further into bear territory.

10:41 PM ET- Market Alert: The forecast has changed to generally positive from caution. The models indicate a positive market environment going forward. Several factors were sited. (1) The Barometer chart shows a continuing break through bear resistance. (2) The Barometer Leading-Indicator chart has been showing a continued interest by traders to keep the sentiment positive. (3) A positive reaction to Intel's earnings and forward looking statements. A test (pullback) of the latest gains can be expected in the near term as it would be extremely unlikely for the market to continue advancing without a test of resolve among traders and investors. The Barometer now indicates positive with a positive bias.

 

10/13/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start as some traders will be off today and bond market will be closed for Columbus day.

10:42 AM ET- At 10:30 AM ET major indexes at the highs of the morning on continuing upbeat outlook for a recovering economy and corporate profits. The Barometer forecast, last changed September 25th., continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:24 PM ET- At noon, indices are just off the highs of the morning. The Barometer-plot is just above bear resistance and has been there for the past couple of days. Today, with light volume and not much news to make the market real volatile, we should see a slow day. Tuesday when traders return and the bond market reopens, we could see a tug-of-war over bear-bull resistance. Normally, the Barometer forecast would have changed by now- because of the positive market. But since this most recent positive environment has come on a holiday, the forecast cannot be changed until a full session can be examined. Until we see how Tuesday unfolds, the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

3:26 PM ET- Stocks continue to hang on to positive momentum going into the last hour of trade on this Columbus day holiday. With all traders back and bond market opened, Tuesday should be business as usual. The Barometer models are becoming more positive and could produce a forecast change as early as Tuesday morning. Currently, the Barometer indicates caution.

4:35 PM ET- Indices end the day in a last hour spike. Major indexes rapidly advanced this morning on continued belief that a recovery is gaining momentum. Stocks began declining during lunch only to move sideways in early-to-mid afternoon. In the last hour, buyers came back and ran stocks up to end the day with a .7 to 1 percent gain on the indexes, slightly off the highs of the day.

6:31 PM ET- "This is the configuration you want to see if you're a bull".

 

Weekend-

10/11/03 Saturday 12:10 PM ET- Stocks end the week on a slow note but with gains. DOW and S&P end with a near one percent advance and the NASDAQ ends with nearly a two percent gain. A subdued market Friday as some traders left early to get a jump on the holiday-weekend. Bond market closed early yesterday and will be closed Monday for Columbus day. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

10/11/03 Saturday 2:33 PM ET- Is the market overbought? Do you think stocks are overvalued?...

10/12/03 Sunday 12:10 PM ET- New week kicks off with some traders out and bond market closed for Columbus day holiday as the market prepares for earnings reports and economical data. Banks and financial, Intel and EBay are the notable companies reporting this week and starting Wednesday on the economical front- retail sales, Fed beige book, initial jobless claims, CPI, Philadelphia Fed report, and the sentiment report should give traders all the data they need to carry out buy sell strategy. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

 

10/10/03 Friday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

11:59 AM ET- With little news, the major indices performance is near neutral- nearly flat. Some economical news and GE outlook disappoints, but neither a market mover. With the U.S. bond market closing early today and closed Monday for the holiday, we could see a near flat stock market until Tuesday. Meanwhile the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

5:11 PM ET- Slow day as indices meander the flat line. DOW and S&P end slightly negative and NASDAQ ends positive. No real leadership, no news and no real economic data to tantalize traders. Bond market closed early today and will be closed Monday for Columbus day. Meanwhile, the stock market will be open Monday but is expected to continue drifting.

11:13 PM ET- Barometer models were extensively run this evening to determine forecast change potential. Even though the Leading-Indicator chart indicates a forecast change, the models are unable to confirm, because of the lack of market participation, as holiday schedules can leave traders uncommitted to strategic direction. The Barometer chart shows the latest plot just above bear market resistance and without conviction by traders, the models indicate caution, which is where the forecast has been. Most likely Monday will be another slow day as some traders will be out and the bond market will be closed. Our earliest look at a full market will be Tuesday. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

 

10/9/03 Thursday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a positive start on better than expected data from initial jobless claims.

10:53 AM ET- Traders like the better than expected drop in jobless claims. Indices responded this morning with a quick move up and since have gone somewhat sideways, but still with a nice gain for the morning. For the week ending 10/4, the adjusted jobless initial claims were 382,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average now stands at 393,500, a decrease of 11,500, according to the Department of Labor.

11:52 AM ET- Stocks continue to advance on conviction that the economy is on a fast track and that the beginning of job growth could be at hand- jobless claims data is beginning to show a change. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

3:11 PM ET- Indices well off the highs set earlier today as some profits are being booked. With nearly an hour to go, it is reasonable to believe that at some point traders will sell into rallies as a retrace of gains of the past six-plus months will occur. Sooner or later a pullback will come and until that happens traders get a little nervous at these levels. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:35 PM ET- Stocks end up lower but still well within positive territory. Traders taking profits on a market that has come along way in the past six months. Some traders see this market as very positive but one that is in need of a correction- a pullback. Bear market resistance is again being tested and Friday will be another test of the strength of the market. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

6:49 PM ET- The Barometer Leading-Indicator plot configuration indicate another leg up in the rally...

 In order for the forecast to change, the Barometer-plot must advance from where it is today...

 

10/8/03 Wednesday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a neutral open.

10:55 AM ET- Indices drift lower as traders and investors wait for Yahoo to report after the close. Market is up against heavy resistance and with nothing to move stocks, it could be difficult to advance. If Yahoo comes out with better than expected earnings and if initial jobless claims are on target, stocks could move higher. Meanwhile, the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

2:35 PM ET- With an hour and a half left in today's market, indices continue drifting lower on a vacuum of news. If the day ends in negative territory, the Barometer-plot will drop below major resistance.

4:33 PM ET- First loss of the month as indices drift negative all day. Bull camps out overnight in bear territory but gets the boot early this morning. The Barometer models continue to look for a meaningful firm trend or counter trend but to no avail- the bias remains at positive. Yahoo to report in about half hour and depending on results could get traders active in after hours trading. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:56 PM ET- Sentiment of the last several trading days has changed, for at least one day, to a more negative note. The bias, unchanged since last week, stands at positive as the Barometer models continue looking for a trend that would change the bias to caution. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

 

10/7/03 Tuesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start as traders and investors await earnings.

11:05 AM ET- Bears put their food down as the Barometer chart shows a high bar to challenge. Twice failed attempt to get over bear resistance has sellers immediately taking control of the market this morning. With little support from economical and earnings news, buyers sit back to see who will come into the market and stand face-to-face with the bears growl. As of 10:39 AM ET the indices where well off the lows. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

3:18 PM ET- As trading enters the last hour, indices hold onto a slight positive gain. No substantial news keeps the market near the opening prices. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:33 PM ET- Bull snorts into bear territory for the first time in over two years. With today's positive move, the Barometer-plot moves past major resistance. This is very heavy resistance and staying atop is the next challenge for the equities market. More to come about this and what's next.

5:45 PM ET- With the negative open of the market it appeared, at first, that the bear put its foot down, saying- "no further". But as we all saw today the market turned and moved into positive territory and stayed with a healthy gain.

10:29 PM ET- corrected- Can the indices put in another positive day? Little economic data until Thursday and Yahoo reporting 3rd. quarter earnings after the close, doesn't leave much for traders to trade on. The daily pattern for slow days seems to be open flat or down and then drift positive to the close. We need several more positive days, drift or not, to get well into bear territory. A negative day Wednesday may not be good for the market in the short term as that would be seen as a third failed attempt at resistance. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

10/6/03 Monday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral start this morning.

10:32 AM ET- Market gets a slow start as buyers and sellers wait on news to trade on. Third quarter earnings gets underway this week and more economical data, including the all important initial jobless claims. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

2:54 PM ET- With a little over an hour to go, indices hit new session highs on continued belief in earnings and economic recovery. Traders are focusing on fundamentals and not geopolitical news. Even though the indices continue to advance, according to the Barometer it would take a couple more positive days to get a forecast change. For now, the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:26 PM ET- DOW and S&P end well off the highs of the day, while NASDAQ ends the session just under the high. A slow but productive session ends as traders get set for earnings and more economical data.

5:54 PM ET- knock knock- who's there? Bull! Once again it looks like, according to the Barometer Leading-Indicator, we are about to challenge a bear stronghold. "It appears that the Leading-Indicator is telling us that once again sentiment could become more positive"

 

Weekend-

10/4/03 Saturday 4:24 PM ET- Is the market overbought? Do you think stocks are overvalued? One way of determining what the value of a particular stock is, is the price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio). A lot of analysts would say yes, stocks are overvalued, especially tech stocks. Yet others will tell you that stocks may not be overvalued, they simple say that a stock might be overvalued only when the stock is sold off- who is to say what stock is or is not overvalued. A P/E ratio is just a measurement that, over time, analysts have used to produce someway of measuring a stocks worth. Consider this about today's market environment. If you look back nearly two years ago on the Barometer chart, you'll see that the Barometer-plots are on the same horizontal line. Compare 10/3/03 (Friday)  to that of November 27, 2001. You'll see the Barometer-pots are exactly on the same horizontal line. If you check out where the indices were back then compared to today

Index 11/27/01 10/3/03 Change
S&P 1150 1030 -120
DOW 9873 9572 -301
NASDAQ 1936 1881 -55

you will see that, as of Friday, the major indexes are still below the 11/27/01 close. And back two years ago the markets peaked and began the long two year slid that we are just now coming out of. Back then the stock market anticipated a worsening economy and ended up with a depressed market. Today though, the economical indicators are picking up and companies appear to be recovering as is the economy. Barring geopolitical news, non-market related events, the case can be made that the next several years could bring much higher market levels. What stocks to buy is definitely a different question than where the market is headed. What sector to buy, small vs. large capital stocks, stocks vs. funds- it comes down to risk level and time that each investor has to spend studying- research and analysis. Unless this is a false start of a recovering economy, look for significantly higher market levels in the next one to two years.

10/5/03 Sunday 11:33 AM ET- As widely reported this morning, Israeli warplanes attack terror training camp in Syria. This is an escalation of tensions in the Middle East that could cause traders to focus on as opposed to market fundamentals Monday morning. The Barometer indicates caution Monday at the open until a trend develops.

10/5/03 Sunday 12:23 PM ET- Economical news again could drive the markets this week starting with consumer credit Tuesday and initial jobless claims and the PPI later in the week. Geopolitical concerns can always get traders nervous and with the Middle East tensions rising can offset any potential advance that good economical data can normally give the market. Even though the bias is positive, the Barometer indicates caution going into the open Monday morning.

 

10/3/03 Friday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a strong open as a major surprise hits the markets this morning. The Department of Labor reported that the economy grew 57,000 non-farm jobs last month. Analysts had expected a loss of about 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed at 6.1 percent. The Barometer bias was changed to positive this morning.

10:38 AM ET- With continued good economical news trickling in this morning, traders continue to buy stocks but the indices are off the high set this morning. The ISM services report indicated- a still expanding services sector of the economy but was down slightly from the previous reading. The Barometer bias was changed to positive this morning and the Barometer now reads caution with a positive bias.

2:31 PM ET- Indices continue to gain and at 2:19 PM ET the DOW and S&P gained 1.8 percent while NASDAQ had gained nearly 3 percent. All on great economical data. The Barometer models continue to look for a firm trend- not just a reaction to one or two pieces of news- follow through is key to determining direction. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:30 PM ET- Rally ends the day off the high, but a very positive day, non-the-less. Today's positive move justifies the Barometers cautionary stance. Normally, when the Barometer-plot is below the negative boundary, as seen on the Leading-Indicator chart, it signals a negative market- but when the plot is within one positive day of the negative boundary (as it was with yesterdays market) the forecast continues to carry caution as apposed to negative. Barometer Leading-Indicator.

5:58 PM ET- Can this rally carry over to Monday? The Barometer suggests that we could see more positive days next week, but the models need to run to get a better picture. The Leading-Indicator shows the Barometer-plot plotting into the negative boundary while the positive boundary turns up.

 

10/2/03 Thursday-

9:27 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:56 AM ET- At 10:38 AM ET indices off the highs and lows of the morning- near flat, as traders dig into economical news. Momentum from yesterdays rally did not carry over to today's trading as economical data being released possibly points to a weaker recovery than most would like to see. So, onto the next piece of data that might give a better picture. And earnings reports that will be coming out soon. The Barometer indicates caution with a neutral bias.

1:05 PM ET- corrected Halfway through the day and the market continues meandering the unchanged line looking for news to trade on. Outside geopolitical news, the next piece of news will be the payroll data out Friday that will give traders a better look at the state of the economy. With little negative preannouncements coming from companies, the outlook for a good-to-great quarter is growing. The Barometer indicates caution with a neutral bias.

4:39 PM ET- Slow, light volume- a whale of a day. But indices end the day on the plus side. Major indexes were up and down most of the day as there was little to focus on. Friday should be a different day as payroll, unemployment, and ISM non-manufacturing data will be released and should be enough to get traders moving one way or the other. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

6:53 PM ET- Make it- two down one to go. Today's positive end didn't do anything for the Leading-Indicator...

 

10/1/03 Wednesday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start. Traders could react to the 10:00 AM ET release of the ISM PMI number- any surprise could cause volatility.

10:48 AM ET- At 10:34 AM ET, indices continue trending upward in early trading as slightly missed economical data on manufacturing and construction spending hasn't slowed the buyers. According to the Barometer Leading-Indicator, the stock market could be heading for a pullback- but sure can't tell that from current sentiment. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

2:56 PM ET- With rest along the way, the market continues to advance while the economical data wasn't exactly what was expected, at least the U.S. manufacturing is still expanding- for three month now. The bias was changed mid-afternoon to caution (neutral) from negative. The Barometer now reads caution with a neutral bias.

4:30 PM ET- Major indices end the day better than 2 percent and close at the highs of the session. A broad advance for stocks but this is where we were this time last week. Great market if you are a trader but can be unsettling if you buy and hold- because we could be back down 2 to 4 percent this time next week. That is why the Barometer is at caution- there is, at this point, no real firm trend. The market could trade like this until earnings are more evident.

6:06 PM ET- One down, one to go... traders need to work on making Thursday a positive market day... The leading-Indicator shows a showdown in the making.

 

9/30/03 Tuesday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:41 AM ET- Consumer confidence falls giving back last months gains- causes a sell off in stocks. At 10:25 AM ET, DOW and S&P had fallen 1.6 percent while the NASDAQ fell 2.2 percent in early trading.

11:12 AM ET- Another piece of economical news is the Chicago PMI- manufacturing in the Midwest was weak causing additional concerns for investors. The index of 51.2 means manufacturing is expanding but is well off last month and less than economist had expected. At 11:00 AM ET, the major indices have recovered and are off the lows of the morning. As always, the Barometer models look for a firm trend to develop, not just a short term reaction to news. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

3:25 PM ET- Since the shock of the bad news has subsided, an upward trend began at the lows this morning only to see that disappear as we approach the close. The Barometer models are indicating a possible bias change as early as this afternoon or possibly during Wednesday's trading. The bias is at caution and could turn negative- leading the forecast to turn negative if market sentiment doesn't turn more positive. Currently, the barometer is indicating caution with a neutral bias.

4:43 PM ET- Stocks ended the day and month with a loss but salvage the quarter with a gain. DOW and S&P gain near 2 percent and NASDAQ ends with a 10 percent gain. But onto current events- The bias was changed, near the close, to negative because the models indicate a continuation of less confidence in the economic recovery and the ability of companies to expand. Since the bias has changed to negative, the forecast is one to two steps away from be downgraded. Wednesday and Thursday will be important for the markets.

 

9/29/03 Monday-

9:09 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:32 AM ET- Stocks got off to a good start but have been trending off the highs set this morning. The indices got a good start on 1). being a little oversold last week and 2). good economical data this morning. The Barometer models look for a firmer trend to set up to either continue the negative bias or to reset it to a caution. But for now, the Barometer reads caution with a negative bias.

1:23 PM ET- Nice rally off the "V" shape sell off this morning- but there doesn't seem to be any news tied to this sharp advance in the indices. At 1:13 PM ET, indices continue making a slower advance, DOW and S&P up by .7 and .8 percent, while NASDAQ up by 1.3 percent. Models continue tracking for a firm trend.

3:14 PM ET- If the indices can maintain the positive trend into the close, the Barometer models indicate a bias change to caution from negative would be appropriate. Since there is no news that can be associated with this latest advance of the market, it might be able to be attributed to managers beefing-up their funds for Q4. Since this is the last two days of the quarter, managers could be buying stock for their funds to prepare for the anticipated 4th quarter market advance.

4:41 PM ET- traders bid stocks up for end of quarter? There are a lot of reasons that fund managers "window dress" at the end of a quarter- one might be a net cash flow in. Meaning retail investors might be pouring into the market more than pulling out of the market, anticipating further advance. In the short term that might be a problem,  as normally that would be a negative sign when the masses do anything. Assuming that there won't be  a geopolitical disaster of some sort, most believe that this time next year, the market will be much higher. This kind of bullishness can be dangerous because markets most always go the path of least resistance- and at these high levels that could be down- pullback could be looming. The Barometer models indicate a firm enough of a trend developed to move the bias to caution. The Barometer now indicates caution with a neutral bias.

 

Weekend- 

9/27/03 Saturday 3:13 PM ET- Are you ready for the next disaster to hit? That is the question, more to policy, of the SEC yesterday as it released its policy on business resumption. If a disaster, of any kind, where to hit markets, or those that are electronically connected to the markets, they need to be prepared for an interruption of service. It has been a long standing policy for business to comply with the self-regulation of business resumption. To this day most large computer operations have a disaster recovery plan in place that calls for the business processing to resume operation within one to three days. But the policy issued by the SEC suggests next day operations, which may be difficult to achieve. Not only do you have to move systems, the backup medium,  to an alternate location the people also need to be moved to either the same location or a remotely connected location, Unless you have a hot site (always ready alternate location). At Market-Barometer.com we do have a disaster recovery plan in place that calls for an alternate site of computer operations as well as a site for personnel to locate to in case the primary site encounters a problem that requires more than a predetermined number of hours to repair. We are capable of moving the operation to an alternate site within one to two days. This includes computer and network operations as well as people. We test several times each year to make sure all the connections that need to be made are made so that we don't miss more than a day and half of operations.

9/28/03 Sunday 10:37 AM ET- Chairman Alan Greenspan attended the 33rd Annual Legislative Conference of the Congressional Black Caucus Friday and delivered a speech on financial education and the concerns that face the consumer today. "Today's financial world is highly complex when compared with that of a generation ago. Forty years ago, a simple understanding of how to maintain a checking and savings account at local banks and savings institutions may have been sufficient. Now, consumers must be able to differentiate between a wide range of financial products and services, and providers of those products and services."

9/28/03 Sunday 11:24 AM ET- With a 4 to 6 percent loss in the market last week, traders and investors will be tested, as a slew of economical data will be released that could determine just how healthy the markets are- a kind of stress test. On tap are personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI, the ISM PMI, jobs data, factory orders, payroll, and the non-manufacturing ISM index. The Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias for the open of trade Monday.

 

9/26/03 Friday-

9:27 AM ET- Look for a neutral- to-positive start. Final GDP for Q2 shows an annual rate increase of 3.3 percent, according to the Commerce Department. The forecast was changed to caution with a negative bias, late yesterday.

10:38 AM ET- Markets opened slightly down while traders mull the GDP and consumer sentiment reports. With the absence of great news, it is likely more profits will be taken as stocks have come along way since March and a pullback is anticipated. The Barometer, changed late yesterday, now reads caution with a negative bias.

3:03 PM ET- As the indices drift, on the negative side, traders gear up for the weekend and thoughts of next week and more economical data. Of interest will be the ISM PMI, it could be a market mover. Meanwhile- bought a house lately? If not it may be of interest that rates are headed down, again. The average rate for the 30 year mortgage is below 6 percent. That could stir the housing market. The Barometer now indicates caution with a negative bias- Barometer forecast was changed late Thursday.

4:26 PM ET- No sell off, no rally- we are in between somewhere. The question of the day is what round will the TKO occur in. With the way the market has been of late, either the bears or bulls will get hammered and it will probably come down to what news hits first- the good, bad or the real ugly stuff. The Barometer forecast was changed, late Thursday, to caution from positive with a bias of negative.

5:47 PM ET- Barometer charts are ready. The Leading-Indicator chart shows the Barometer-plot hitting the negative boundary and the Barometer chart shows that the market could be heading to the Barometer channel- a sideways market.

 

9/25/03 Thursday-

9:20 AM ET- With mixed economical data released this morning, it would appear traders are willing to overlook the oil problem- at least for the open. It looks like a positive start.

10:53 AM ET- The positive start turned into a mixed market early going but with the housing data just released, stocks take a turn south. Traders had mulled the mixed economical data trying to decide where to go next, as there where no real leadership in the making. At 10:38 ET, the indices were off .3 to .8 percent. Unless traders discount the latest data and oil production news and  overlook a pricy market, most likely we are headed for more selling today. At this time, the Barometer continues to indicate positive with a negative bias.

2:18 PM ET- DOW down 29, NASDAQ down 5, and S&P is flat. The market could sell-off as overvalued some think it is. But what happens in the last hour of trade can speak volumes on short-term direction. Depending on the close, the Barometer might change this evening, depending on the analysis of the models. But for now, the Barometer continues to indicate positive with a negative bias.

4:22 PM ET- Stock- sell off accelerates at the close as buyers stay away from buying on the dips. Profits are taken in anticipation of a market-direction change. Question is, where is the market headed now. Models are running and commentary on the results will be available later.

5:30 PM ET- With today's failure to keep positive comes a high probability that the forecast will change. The models will most likely show negative metrics that, once analyzed, will lead to a downgrade in the forecast. After the data is analyzed, the site will be updated. At times this after the close review of the model data can last into late night (East coast time)- but any change will be posted well before the open Friday.

11:11 PM ET- Market alert- 'This Week' forecast was changed from generally positive to caution,  this evening, because the Barometer models indicate the potential for further weakness in the U.S. equities market. The models further indicated the following;  twice failed attempt at the 9/11 resistance line, traders reluctances to buy on dips, and a somewhat overvalued market. The Barometer Leading-Indicator shows the Barometer-plot had moved down between the positive and negative boundaries indicating a sentiment change among traders and investors. Although there is a slim chance the market could turnaround Friday, because of bullish news or economical reports, the gradient of the boundaries is such that it indicates that moderate bad news could cause a major sell-off. The Barometer now indicates caution with a negative bias.

9/24/03 Wednesday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a neutral- to slightly positive start.

10:38 AM ET- Look for a slow consolidating day if no news to move stocks. Major indexes fall after the open and hold .2 to .6 percent loss as the market is expected to drift today. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a neutral bias.

1:04 PM ET- OPEC ratifies a surprise cut in oil production this morning that could increase the price of oil which some think could raise fuel costs this winter and impede economic growth. The indices immediately moved lower as traders are now trying to decide what real affect this will have on the recovery and earnings, if any.

3:23 PM ET- Stocks continue the decline and, at 3:00 PM,  are at the lows of the day. OPEC reports to cut production that hits buyers but not sellers. The bias was changed to negative, early afternoon, as it was apparent that a new firm trend had taken over. With economical data Thursday, we could get some relief if the data is bullish- otherwise could see more selling.

4:23 PM ET- As the markets close, indices and stocks get hammered by OPEC's surprise oil cut. NASDAQ gets hit the hardest with a 3 percent loss as traders and investors get out of overvalued equities. Not knowing where this will end, profits are booked as the "shoot and ask question later" comes into play. The Barometer bias was changed, as it was very evident that this surprise news gives sellers reason to do what they do best- bet that it's going down further.

5:53 PM ET- The Barometer Leading-Indicator shows trouble ahead if Thursday is not a positive day. Worse case is market sells off and tests the June channel. The moderate case is market builds another channel and the market goes sideways until 3Q earnings. The Barometer bias was changed to negative earlier today and now the Barometer indicates positive with a negative bias.

10:48 PM ET- The Barometer Leading-Indicator chart was updated with two orange dashed lines to underscore two areas of the chart of concern...  It most likely will come down to the economical data released in the morning.

 

9/23/03 Tuesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to slightly positive start.

10:40 AM ET- Major indices hold a slim gain on slight reaction to brokerage firms good earnings but more importantly overdone selling on G7 report yesterday. With no economical news for traders to focus on, any outside news could cause slight volatility for stocks. The Barometer indicates positive with a cautionary (neutral) bias.

4:24 PM ET- Indices trend up as the NASDAQ continues to outperform and closes at the high. S&P and DOW end the day just off of the highs of the session. The Barometer models are looking for a firm trend before relinquishing caution for a more positive bias. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

5:19 PM ET- A nice positive market today causes an 'up tick' on the Barometer-plot...

 

9/22/03 Monday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a negative start- buyers are on hold for at least two days. First real hint on new economical data won't be until Thursday. G7 comments over the weekend cause bond volatility.

11:53 AM ET- Markets get hammered by a weak dollar caused by G7 ministers statement over the weekend. Stock market sold off at the opening but has recovered and is currently well off the lows of the morning. With the lack of economical data, traders and strategist hone in on what's available and, as suggested over the weekend, geopolitical news can have its affect on the market. The Barometer bias was changed to caution earlier this morning.

4:13 PM ET- G7 report is said to be responsible for slamming just about everything- except gold. Markets end off the lows but still well under water. With little in way of economical news or earnings, buyers have no reason to bid up. According to the Barometer, there is resistance at the 9/11-rally line and it may take a consolidation and a pullback to get past this resistance. Meanwhile, the bias was changed this morning to caution.

6:01 PM ET- With today's sell off, the Barometer-plot is declining to the positive boundary.

 

Weekend- 

9/20/03 Saturday 13:15 PM ET- With the positive week just ending, comes the thought- where do we go from here. The Barometer chart shows the market is back where it was, nearly two years ago, when the 9/11 rally ended. With no significant economical data to be released (until later in the week), you might think we could pullback a little. On the other hand, the momentum from this week could spill over and we could see a continued positive environment. Keep in mind that the market is forward-looking (6 to 9 months out) and could have already priced-in a recovering economy and corporate earnings, or is close. The market can do one of three things- continue the advance, consolidate (sideways movement), or pullback. This is why the Barometer Leading-Indicator is important- it gives you a peak at what could happen. The indicator shows a positive environment in place. And unless some real bad geopolitical news occurs, we should see a continuation of the positive environment. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a positive bias. Keep track of the forecast bug (top right on each page) for any change.

9/21/03 Sunday 11:33 AM ET- Barring geopolitical events, look for a slow market until Thursday when a slew of important economical data begins. Starting with jobs data Thursday and ending with the ISM PMI next week. Earnings for the brokerage houses could cause a stir on Tuesday when they report quarterly results. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a positive bias.

 

9/19/03 Friday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-mixed open.

11:26 AM ET- Indices sink just below the opening, as there is no economical data to focus on today. About the only event scheduled for today is the last hour of trade when options and futures expire- triple witching. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a positive bias.

4:56 PM ET- Market ends a stair step week- even though today saw profit takers, the indices advanced nearly 2 to 3 percent for the week- a very good orderly week. The bulls assault against the bear will have to wait for a week, as the Barometer indicates resistance at the bear-9/11 line.

 

9/18/03 Thursday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-mixed open on mixed news. Not so good chip news but better economical news.

10:46 AM ET- Indices respond well to jobs data- initial claims 399,000- better than most expected. Traders are ignoring other news and honing in on market fundamentals. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a positive bias.

12:27 PM ET- Philadelphia Fed reports sector manufacturing new orders are rising, price index is rising, futures indicate continued rise, but employment declined. Market maintains gains for the day...

3:40 PM ET- The FOMC released the minutes from the August Federal Reserve meeting. In the meeting they came to the conclusion that economic activity was mixed in late spring and early summer this year. They further stated the labor market remained weak, but industrial production improved slightly…

4:09 PM ET- Stocks storm ahead as good economical data beats out not-so-good economical data- indices are closing a fraction of the highs of the day.

5:19 PM ET- With today's positive action, comes a possible showdown between the bears and the bulls. According to the Barometer, we are at the spot where, nearly two years ago, the 9/11 rally ended. The next several days could prove interesting. 

10:23 PM ET corrected- Stocks storm ahead as good economical data beats out not-so-good economical data- indices are closing a fraction off the highs of the day.  

 

9/17/02 Wednesday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

12:07 PM ET- At noon indices near flat in slow trade. With little to move the market, it is seen to continue slow through the noon hour when volatility could pickup this afternoon and in the last hour of trading. The Barometer indicates positive with a positive bias.

4:42 PM ET- Market ends, kind of the way it started- flat. Nothing to move the market today causes it to move sideways, for the most part. It isn't that unusual to have a flat- to a little negative day after a market run-up. So, for today, don't read anything into it. The Barometer will be on the watch for a trend on Thursday as initial claims and Philadelphia Fed are on deck.

 

9/16/03 Tuesday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral open.

10:56 AM ET- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today...

12:31 PM ET- Market indexes move higher, at the high of the day, waiting on the Fed. to say there is no rate change. Traders will glean from the accompanying text any Fed. stance change on the economy. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary (neutral) bias.

2:42 PM ET- The Federal Reserve leaves Fed funds rate at 1%- unchanged. The market is flat on the news.

3:32 PM ET- Barometer bias changed to positive- Barometer now reads positive with a positive bias.

4:27 PM ET- Market ends the afternoon with a rally- FOMC keeps rates unchanged and basically has an unchanged bias from the last meeting of Fed officials. The Barometer bias was changed, earlier this afternoon, on models picking-up a decisive bullish trend after the Fed announcement. The Barometer now reads positive with a positive bias.

5:23 PM ET- Charts are ready for viewing- but don't really show anything new. For this rally to stay together, we need to see a continuation into Wednesday and close with positive sentiment. Anything less could suggest another channel (sideways market) until earnings season.

 

9/15/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral open.

11:24 AM ET- At 11:00 AM ET, indices meander the flat line as market awaits this weeks economical news. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets to determine interest rates- no change is expected. CPI, housing data, and initial claims are among the data this week that traders and investors will maul over. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

3:44 PM ET- The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) upgraded their 2003-2004 economical outlook. They now call for real GDP to expand by 2.6 and 4% respectively. The panel of 35 professional forecasters sited  expectations for consumer spending and business fixed investment as the reason. 

4:36 PM ET- Major indexes end the day negative in slow trading as most wait on the Fed. and more economical data. The Barometer Leading-Indicator shows sentiment in the market could be growing- problem is, which way are we headed. The Barometer-plot is on the positive boundary and any more negative days could lead to a cautionary forecast change.

5:35 PM ET- A slow day today, but could pickup Tuesday. First- the CPI report and then notes from the Fed. meeting. Both could move the market. Charts show a bias and forecast change could be within a few days.

 

9/12/03 Friday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a negative open.

11:02 AM ET- At 9:55 AM ET, the major indices had hit the lows of the morning and have began trending upward- the selling was helped along by disappointing economical news. The Barometer models will gage this trend, which is viewed as discounting bad news. Currently, the Barometer is indicating positive with a cautionary bias.

4:25 PM ET- Traders discount bad news, drives indices to highs of the day. Barometer models require additional data to change the bias- could get that on Monday, when trading resumes. The bias stays at caution.

5:25 PM ET- Barometer models can't even conjure up a bias change. A bias of caution (neutral market) means that the market, according to Barometer methodology, can either be positive or negative in the very short term. Before a forecast change can take place, the bias must lead in the direction of the changed forecast. Currently, the forecast is positive with a bias of caution.

 

9/11/03 Thursday-

9:27 AM ET- Look for a neutral open as traders focus on 9-11, S&P support level, but discount jobs data.

11:38 AM ET- At 11:00 AM ET, the market opened positive, with the indices just off the morning highs. The focus this morning is the 9/11 two year anniversary and the S&P at support levels. The Barometer Leading-Indicator indicates support levels to be tested today- shown on the chart by the Barometer-plot at the positive boundary. Currently, the Barometer indicates positive with a negative bias.

4:40 PM ET- Market major indices close on a positive note, as most of the attention of traders and investors were on 9/11- remembering events of two years ago. The Barometer bias was upgraded to caution from negative as the models discount some events that take place during a trading session- today wasn't a good day to gage market reaction to fundamentals. The Barometer now indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

 

9/10/03 Wednesday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a negative open.

12:28 PM ET- At the noon hour, stocks continue the trek down. In order for the Barometer bias to change, the Barometer models need to detect a firm trend- a trend that displays characteristics of sentiment change. The last hour of trade can give important clues in that regard. however, the Barometer continues to indicate positive with a cautionary bias.

3:52 PM ET- Sellers continue selling amid reports of a Bin Laden tape and concerns of over bought market. Bias was changed to negative.

4:38 PM ET- Buyers go AWOL from market today as not many will buy with the latest bad news and before jobs data. Major indexes end near or at the low of the day. The Barometer bias was changed to negative after it was clear that a firm negative trend was in place. The Barometer now reads- positive with a negative bias.

5:56 PM ET- With all the negative sentiment, it could get much worse for stocks if the jobs data (adjusted initial claims) doesn't please traders Thursday morning. The Barometer Leading-Indicator shows it would take two more negative days to cause the forecast to indicate caution. The Barometer now indicates positive with a negative bias.

 

9/9/03 Tuesday-

9:20 AM ET- look for a negative start.

10:54 AM ET- At 10:38 AM ET stocks continue to sell off in light trading. There have been several days of positive trading and some profit taking can be expected. The Barometer Leading-Indicator is close to being downgraded to 'caution' but the models are waiting for a firm trend to develop before triggering a caution. For now, the Barometer indicates positive with a positive bias.

4:40 PM ET- Stocks end the day down- as they started. Even though today was a slow trade day, sellers took over, gearing-up for what comes next. What comes next? Some traders think a trend change is coming- some think a pullback is close. At about 2:15, the major indices began falling again but closed off the lows of the day. The Barometer bias was changed to 'caution' just before the close, and is now indicating positive with a cautionary bias.

6:14 PM ET- A pullback today as traders take profits and await the next move of the market...

 

9/8/03 Monday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:35 AM ET- At 11:10 AM ET, major indexes are at or near the high of the morning session on continued indications that the economy and businesses are recovering. The economical outlook, over the next 6 to 12 months, continues to keep traders in a buying mood. The Barometer continues to indicate positive with a positive bias.

3:23 PM ET- Central Bank sees global recovery and an improving outlook for U.S. capital investment...

4:10 PM ET- Major market indices continue the advance as good news keeps rolling in. But remember that September is typically not a good month for stocks. For now though, the rally, started in March, continues.

6:04 PM ET- Very positive news keeps the market environment positive, as traders continue buying...

 

9/5/03 Friday-

9:29 AM ET- Look for a negative open on disappointment in nonfarm payroll report.

10:56 AM ET- Market pulls back at the open on poor payroll data but recovers somewhat with NASDAQ outperforming. According to the Barometer, a negative or neutral day is needed- stocks cannot go straight up without resting- it's not healthy. Barometer indicates positive with a bias of positive.

4:21 PM ET- Buyers rest today as the major stock indexes decline .6 to .8% on surprise loss of 93,000 jobs in August (nonfarm payroll report). Traders and investors should get passed this shock as this latest economical data shouldn't be viewed as how the economy is doing but probably is a factor of where the economy has been. The Barometer indicates positive with a positive bias.

5:30 PM ET- Market pulls back causing the Barometer-plot (yellow) to slip slightly...

 

9/4/03 Thursday-

9:17 AM ET- Look for a neutral start.

10:30 AM ET- Market jumps on economical news released this morning but since has come back to be flat. Traders might react to the news later on today. Barometer is indicating positive with a bias of positive.

4:32 PM ET- Major indexes and stocks move up- NASDAQ outperforms with chips leading the way. Marginal positive environment, nevertheless, a positive day. Market looks ahead to Fridays non-farm payroll and unemployment economical reports.

5:54 PM ET- Analysis of the charts have been completed and ready for viewing. One chart stands out. The Barometer chart shows a plot (yellow) surging for the 2001 bear-bull resistance line. The way the Barometer looks, we could enter another channel and await the upcoming earnings season. Notice how the two preexisting channels are connected with the same kind of surging plot (around 5/23/03).

 

9/3/03 Wednesday-

9:14 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

10:51 AM ET- Market opens neutral and holds .2 to .8% gains, with NASDAQ on top. Economical data to be released Thursday and Friday could step-up momentum with initial claims, ISM services data, factory orders, payroll, and unemployment rate- all in the next two days. The Barometer now indicates positive with a positive bias.

3:31 PM ET- The Federal Reserve indicates that the economy continued to improve in July and August...

4:12 PM ET- Market extends its reach. Good news from the Fed. and Cisco Systems continues the positive environment. Next two days of economical data will test bulls and bears alike. The Barometer is now indicating positive with a positive bias. Charts will be out in an hour.

5:29 PM ET- Charts are available: Barometer chart shows breaking out of the channel- Barometer Leading-Indicator shows a change in the attitude of the market. 

 

9/2/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a positive open, as traders wait on the ISM report, scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET.

10:54 AM ET- Manufacturing activity for August grew for the second consecutive month, says the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Market advanced very slightly at first when the report was released, then began declining to end up near today's starting point. At 10:40 AM ET, the major indexes were flat. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:20 PM ET- Nice rally on continued confidence in the recovering economy, helped by a good ISM report this morning, has the stock market advancing- overall, major indexes close nearly at the highs of the session, with some sectors hitting yearly highs. Charts will be out within an hour- look for a possible forecast change.

5:08 PM ET- Expect a forecast change. Models are not yet complete, but data does indicate a probable forecast change on outstanding performance in the market. The Barometer chart shows a breakout from the channel and the Leading-Indicator shows a trend change. Barometer chart  Leading-Indicator

7:28 PM ET- The forecast has changed to positive from caution with a positive bias. Both the Barometer and Barometer Leading-Indicator now indicate a positive market going forward. Last week, the Leading-Indicator indicated a positive change but the bias kept the forecast from changing until Friday when the bias finally indicated positive. Go to the Leading-Indicator for more about the change.

 

9/1/03 Monday-

10:48 AM ET- U.S. stock market closed for Labor Day holiday. Market scheduled to begin trading at 9:30 AM ET Tuesday.

 

8/29/03 Friday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start. Traders will focus on Greenspan, Chicago PMI, and the long weekend ahead.

10:53 AM ET- The Chicago PMI came in at 58.9 for August compared to 55.9 for July, above expectations- number above 50 means expanding manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Market reacted positive to the number and reversed early loss.

11:17 AM ET- Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan at the symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. "Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape...

2:57 PM ET- Indices continue to hold positive near the flat line almost all day long- not much in the way of movement. Traders, and everyone else, look forward to Labor Day, where U.S. markets will be closed on Monday.

4:24 PM ET- Market ends positive, Barometer indicates a bias change- finally. Barometer models have identified a slim- but positive bias. The models pointed out a dip (beginning of  a sell off) just before the close today, only to rebound and move higher. This is the 3rd. occurrence in the past 6 trade days- thus the bias change. Charts will be out within an hour.

5:28 PM ET- Charts are showing a change taking place in the market. The bias was changed at the close today because the models indicated a firm trend over the past 6 trade days. Excluding non-market news (geopolitical news), it appears that the market could move higher. The barometer now indicates caution with a positive bias.

 

8/28/03 Thursday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. Good economical data released this morning has increased the chance for a good start to the market.

10:46 AM ET- Stocks retreat after a positive open. Good economical data can't get buyers to buy ahead of the long weekend. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

11:01 AM ET- Last weeks initial jobless claims came in at 394,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure, the moving average now is 396,250, still below that 400,000 that some look at as a benchmark.

11:35 AM ET- Preliminary estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2003, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP is the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the U. S.

2:21 PM ET- DOW and S&P hug the opening price-line while the NASDAQ outperforms by 1/4 percent. Very slow ahead of long weekend. With a long weekend and short week, trading most likely will be even slower than we have been experiencing. This could lead to more sideways movement of the market until something comes along and really gets traders attention. The Barometer leading-Indicator model has not identified a firm trend, a firm trend must be identified before the models are able to indicate something other than- caution.

4:22 PM ET- Market ends positive- buyers began slowly buying stocks this morning,  after initial drop in the indices, and accelerated in the last hour of trade. It was enough of a positive day for the Barometer Leading-Indicator plot to popup over resistance. Charts should be out within an hour.

5:23 PM ET- Charts indicate that we could see a couple more positive days. But with such light volume expected, Friday and early next week, anything can happen. Geopolitical news can move traders as well as economical data that will be released Friday and Tuesday. If no unexpected news (geopolitical and economical) the market should move sideways with a slight positive bias.  

11:07 PM ET- A Speech by Chairman Alan Greenspan on Monetary Policy and Uncertainty is scheduled to kickoff Friday at 10:00 AM ET at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and is sure to get full attention by traders and investors. There has been some rumbling among some analysts and traders that the Federal Reserve is not quite sure just how far the economy is along the recovery path. Some hope that Greenspan might give some direction or at least clear up some of the uncertainty.

 

8/27/03 Wednesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. No economical data today, could be a slow day.

10:31 AM ET- With no major economical news to trade on, markets could stay close to opening values. Excluding geopolitical news, trade should be slow as traders wait on preliminary GDP and jobs data Thursday. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:30 PM ET- NASDAQ outperforms again. Others end up nearly where they started the day. Hopefully we will get some reaction Thursday and Friday on economical data. Barometer sees today's trade as neutral.

5:59 PM ET- Can the market come out of the self induced coma? Thursday begins nonstop economical data, culminating with Chicago PMI and the ISM PMI next week.  The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

8/26/03 Tuesday- 

9:25 AM ET- Look for a negative open. Market awaits economical data.

10:59 AM ET- Better than expected economical data released this morning does nothing for stock buyers. Traders most likely will trade on the technical conditions of the market and that may come between now and Wednesday afternoon. The Barometer continues to look for a firm trend and continues to indicate caution.

4:37 PM ET- Market makes a comeback to end positive, but the Barometer sees this as seesaw action (trading on technical conditions) without a firm trend. If the positive action can carry over to the remainder of the week, we could possibly see an end to the consolidation. Charts are scheduled to be published within an hour.

5:34 PM ET- The Barometer chart shows continued travel across the channel while the Leading-Indicator shows a lackluster market without a firm trend.  

7:06 PM ET- With little in way of economical data until Thursday, the market could rest Wednesday- any more rest and we could see stocks go into a coma. Starting Thursday, it will be nonstop economical data culminating with Chicago PMI and the ISM PMI. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

8-25-03 Monday-

9:14 AM ET- Look for a neutral open.

10:52 AM ET- Stocks get off to a negative start, as the market looks forward to some guidance with economical data to be released this week. Among the data to be released are consumer confidence, new home sales, preliminary look at GDP, jobs data, and Chicago PMI. Barometer continues to look for a trend and indicates caution.

2:55 PM ET- The Barometer continues looking for a bias trend- that is, a trend in the market that would lead to a bias other than caution. Volume today is lackluster, causing stocks to drift and with that a continuation of a tight trading range- a sideways moving market. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:28 PM ET- Market ends Monday much like it has for the past several months- neutral. Charts should be updated and published within an hour.

5:16 PM ET- The Barometer chart continues to show sideways movement of the market, while the Leading-Indicator June Channel chart shows all plots rolling over, indicating continued bias of caution.  

5:58 PM ET- Stocks could get stimulated Tuesday when consumer confidence and new home sales data is released- scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. If the data comes in as expected, traders could keep the market going sideways until next earnings season. Meanwhile, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

8/22/03 Friday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a positive open on comments from Intel.

10:36 AM ET- Stocks got off to a good start even though the major indexes are off the highs of the morning. Before the open, Intel (INTC) said it expects revenue to be between $7.3 billion and $7.8 billion, as compared to the previous range of $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion, sparking traders to buy stocks. The Barometer continues to watch for a firm trend to develop. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:23 PM ET- Intel could not sustain the market. S&P down below 1000. But the Barometer still shows there is time for buyers to take the market over- At least one more day, Monday will be important. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

7:14 PM ET- If the market is to pullout of the tight trading range that we have been experiencing since June, according to the Barometer, it will have to be in the next couple of days. The models were run to determine how many days it would take to breakout of the Barometer channel. Even though anything can happen, the models indicate 2 positive days are needed over the next 2 to 4 days, with the other days being neutral; 1 negative day might be acceptable. The Leading-Indicator does still show that a continued advance in the market, a rally, is still possible if we can get those positive days. And remember, the Leading-Indicator is just that, it identifies trend changes and it leads the Barometer-plot. The only way to get out of the sideways moving market is for a sustained move of the Barometer-plot above the channel. With a holiday week coming up, any stagnation next week could see further sideways movement of the market into next earnings season.

 

8/21/03 Thursday-

9:24  AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:45 AM ET- Another Iraqi terrorist captured, an upbeat jobs report has buyers in a good mood. The Barometer bias ('Today') has not been upgraded yet. The Barometer model waits for a firm trend to develop before indicating changes to the indicator. As of 10:36 AM ET, the major indexes are off the highs of the morning. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

1:05 PM ET- At noon, the market begins another advance after the morning sell-off, as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve released their business outlook survey diffusion index, and said that it rose to 22.1, well above expectations. That sent the market backup almost where it sold-off from. Since then, midway through the noon hour, the indexes have again backed off the highs. The Barometer continues to look for a daily (bias) trend.

4:33 PM ET- Stocks maintain a positive attitude. Mostly good news gives traders reason to buy- no economical data to be released Friday, market could focus on geopolitical events.

5:47 PM ET- Oh! What would you give- for a good day in the market Friday? According to the Barometer Leading-Indicator, only thing missing is conviction- follow through. All three plots are angling upward just waiting for the Bulls to begin hammering away. And the Bears to pull the covers over their strategy and their positions. Of course, the old disclaimer- it's only a forecast. And the only thing the Barometer Leading-Indicator can do is point out a trend change- and we have one. Temper all of this with the Barometer-chart view. It shows that the environment is still conducive to a sideways market. And don't forget you can't foresee a geopolitical event- that is un-predictable. But be on alert- the Barometer continues, at this time, to indicate caution.   

6:42 PM ET- U.S. Stock Market is scheduled to begin trade at 9:30 AM ET Friday.

 

8/20/03 Wednesday-

9:29 AM ET- Look for a negative open. Selling at the open can be expected on concerns of an increase in terror attacks and HP earnings disappoints traders, adding fuel to the fire.

11:04 AM ET- Hewlett-Packard's earnings disappointment should not be a market mover- just look at Dell's report and you have to ask the question why is HP's results so bad. Look at all those boxes of PC's and servers going into corporate America with white-on-blue DELL lettering on them. Traders will come to understand that any problem with HP's results is HP generated. More important to the market is the increase in terrorist attacks in Iraq and Israel. These bombings are destabilizing the region and that is the major concern today. The Barometer continues to indicates caution.

4:57 PM ET- Terrorism, Dell's answer to HP's woes (cut prices), and no economical data today equals a drift down under. Although S&P stays above 1000. At least Thursday we get to look forward to jobs data- that might spark traders.

 

8/19/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open on good housing data and generally good other news.

11:19 AM ET- Market turned negative after mixed economical data was released this morning. Traders eye an upbeat new-housing-starts report but also consider a decline in new permits issued to build residential homes. Meanwhile, the market was helped down, early in the morning session, by a negative report on consumer sentiment. After the major indexes hit morning lows, the market had turned and entered positive territory- once again. What happens in the market in late afternoon trade is very important in considering overall heath of stocks. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:12 PM ET- NASDAQ outperforms the rest of the market. DOW and S&P struggle but end up in positive territory. Traders have an eye on the S&P closing above 1000. Markets could have sold off on the geopolitical front but hung in there to set stage for Wednesday.

6:52 PM ET- The Barometer Leading-Indicator has been updated. No change, as market was viewed as neutral by the Barometer. With no economical data Wednesday, only thing to trade on might be HP's earnings- Excluding anymore geopolitical event.

 

8/18/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:59 AM ET- At midmorning trade, stocks are rising. A slow steady rise for the major indexes as buyers are ok with economical data release of late. It will be important to see a positive market in the last hour of trade today. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

12:19 PM ET- Market reacting positive on previously discounted economical data released last week. Indexes continue a steady climb into positive territory with the DOW approaching 100 point gain. The bias ('Today') was changed, so now the Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:18 PM ET- A nice advance for the market, as stocks pickup buyers. The Barometer shows that traders and the market are right back in the middle of the Barometer channel. What does that mean? Means we could see an end to the consolidation- sideways movement of the market. We will have more on this within an hour.

5:26 PM ET- The analysis of  today's positive advance will be later than first anticipated. The report is now scheduled to be published prior to 7:30 PM ET today.

7:26 PM ET- According to Barometer models, a channel test could be in the works...

 

8/15/03 Friday-

9:28 AM ET- The Barometer indicates caution for the open- There isn't enough data to forecast a reasonable prediction for the open. An educated guess would be- a negative open.

10:47 AM ET- After an hour of trading, markets are tame with the major indexes posting 0.1 to 0.2 percent gains with low volume. Stocks are expected to do little today as a lot of trading desks are staffed very thin. The July CPI was released and came in 0.2 percent, about what was expected. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:50 PM ET- With little more than an hour to go, the U.S. stock market is not that far off of the opening. With low volume, low attendance, traders that are at their station want to get out of town, literally. Whatever the trade day would have been like, if not for the power outage, will most likely be made up on Monday and Tuesday- we could see more action next week. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:37 PM ET- Stocks end nearly where they started this morning. With very low volume, traders decide to wait until next week to make strategic trades. With such low volume and very little trading on the news, the Barometer indicates a neutral day, as expected, with no identifiable direction. The Barometer requires a certain level of activity and news to be able to determine how events are handled by traders. Since there was little news, other than the power outage, the Barometer models locked-in neutral as the performance of the market for Friday. The Barometer continues to show caution.

 

8/14/03 Thursday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

12:57 PM ET- At midday, stocks bounce and recover early morning losses and post substantial gains. Good economical data this morning shows up in the market an hour late. A little after 10:00 AM the major indexes made an about face and began a steady climb into positive territory. Economical data was released this morning showing claims for unemployment rose to 398,000 from a revised 396,000, Labor Department said on Thursday. For the fourth week in a row, claims are under 400,000 which many suggest is a benchmark for the strength of the jobs market. After the close today, the focus will be on Dell Q2 results. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:51 PM ET- Stocks have stabilized at mid-afternoon trading, with no good or bad news to move them. It seems traders and investors make small adjustments on the news and if void of news, they are comfortable with sideways trading. Is it possible that both Bears and Bulls are waiting for the other to make a move- appears so, as not only does intraday trading go sideways but since June 6, 2003 we have been going sideways in a fairly tight trading range. Unless something breaks, we could see trading in this channel until next earnings season. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

3:54 PM ET- Nearing the close of today's trade, major indexes are maintaining a slight gain for the day. Indexes have been holding anywhere from 1/4 to 3/4 percent gain nearly all day. When trading is this close to the flat line, extra time is needed to run and analyze the model data. Therefore, the Barometer charts will be posted late. Results should be available within an hour.

5:19 PM ET- Analysis of the forecast models indicate a positive day. We can still see the stock market in a tight trading range, but there is some evidence that fundamentals might be improving- leading to a slim chance of getting out of the channel. If the market can put together a couple more positive days, we could see better times ahead. But it would take nearly a weeks worth of trading mostly positive to clear the channel. The Barometer continues to indicate caution. [Barometer Leading-Indicator]

10:51 PM ET- A power outage struck many cities in the northeast, including New York, Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit. In New York City, workers had to deal with long waits and many had to walk home or to an area that had transportation services. Many businesses and facilities where shut down and those with power backup systems were able to continue limited operations. The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are scheduled to be open Friday, August 15, 2003 at the normal time. It is being reported that some analysts believe the market will decline at the open. With all non-market-related events, always use caution watching for trends to develop. There are no reports that this event is nothing more than a power outage- it is being reported that terrorism has been ruled out. Any further news that could affect the market in a material way will be posed prior to the open.

 

8/13/03 Wednesday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open on better than expected retail sales for July.

10:40 AM ET- Retail and food services sales for July (adjusted) were $317.2 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent, the Department of Commerce said… 

11:58 AM ET- U.S. inventories (adjusted) was estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,168 billion, up 0.1 percent from May, off of analysts expectations. Market trades down on the news but is holding with less than 3/4% lose at midday.

4:31 PM ET- Stocks go under and treasuries (10 and 30) gets slammed again with yields moving higher. Stock market continues a trading range with the Barometer indicating sideways movement of the market.

5:51 PM ET- It is very difficult to forecast a market that zig-zags in a tight trading range. The S&P 500 is nearly where it was back in June 6, with the DOW and NASDAQ up 2 and 3 percent, respectively. The Barometer chart indicates a firming channel, which leads to traders being non-committed. If you look at the Barometer Leading-Indicator (March rally chart) you see a trendless market with no conviction by traders. The Barometer methodology of determining a positive and negative market is based on the Barometer-plot ability to cross the positive and negative boundaries. And in this market we have no convincing crossings, yet. In the meantime, the Barometer indicates caution.

 

8/12/03 Tuesday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start. Traders await the Fed. statement. It is widely expected that interest rates will be left unchanged. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

11:34 AM ET- Approaching the noon hour and the market continues in positive territory with little movement. Everybody is waiting for the FOMC to make the rate change announcement (no change is expected) and a statement on the economy. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release a statement at 2:15 PM ET.

2:35 PM ET- The Federal Reserve keeps interest rate unchanged at 1%, as most had expected. Stock market reaction, just after the announcement, was neutral to the news. The Barometer continues to indicate caution until a trend develops.

3:29 PM ET- The Federal Reserve Committee issued today's meeting statement and basically attributed the monetary policy and a robust growth in productivity, as providing support for the economy. But they warned that deflation might be a  concern by saying- "on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future". The stock market took a dip after the statement was released but had recovered with a positive spike into the last hour of trade. 

4:40 PM ET- Market ends with a rally on news that the Fed will continue their aggressive policy, because they see improvement in the economy. This can be interpreted as keeping rates unchanged for a long period of time. The market sees that as a big positive for the bottom line of corporate America. The bias ('Today' forecast) was changed to positive as the trend now indicates a better attitude among traders- for at least today and going into Wednesday.

5:38 PM ET- The Barometer models have been reviewed and they still indicate caution with a positive bias, even though we had a rally in the last hour of trade today...

 

8/11/03 Monday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

10:53 AM ET- At midmorning  major indexes and stocks, for the most part, are in positive territory. Ahead for the week is the FOMC meeting- it is widely expected the Federal Reserve to do nothing with interest rates. Passed that, are several economical data releases that could inspire traders. Such as retail sales, jobs data, and CPI- to name a few. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:32 PM ET- DOW and S&P hug flat-line all day, while NASDAQ leads- all end positive. Leading-Indicator turns around making tracks to positive territory.

5:28 PM ET- The bias ('Today' forecast) has not changed from caution because one of the Leading-Indicator models suggests that a firm trend is needed before a change can be made. If the market can continue with a positive trend Tuesday, it most likely will be enough to change the bias to positive. The market could be flat Tuesday morning until the Federal Reserve releases the August meeting statement- it is widely expected that the Fed will not change interest rates. More importantly, the Fed statement on the economy will be what traders are interested in. For now, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

8/8/03 Friday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:29 AM ET- Excluding geopolitical events, look for a slow day- as traders look to next weeks potential market moving events- leading off with the Fed. meeting (FOMC) on Monday. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:36 PM ET- Tech stocks lower and almost all other stocks higher. Mixed market still looks for direction. With a busy week coming up, stocks should get direction. For now, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:47 PM ET- Next week will be very busy- starting off with the Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting and lots of economical data for traders to sift through. The Barometer forecast is stuck at caution until the market gets conviction. Go to Barometer Leading-Indicator for more about the forecast. " Normally, this configuration of plots moving down would signal the end of the sideways movement of the market".

 

8/7/03 Thursday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start. So far in the pre-open- traders are continuing to discount good news. Jobs data shows- still under 400,000, that is good news, shows labor market beginning to improve. Barometer indicates caution.

10:33 AM ET- Market continues to disregard better than expected jobs and productivity data. Major Indexes are close to the unchanged line and you have to wonder, between the Bears and Bulls, who has the trump cards. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:16 PM ET- Buyers have, once again, begun nibbling at stocks. Major indexes have continued a steady slow climb since early morning lows were reached. The Barometer models suggests that the last hour of trade is a key on trader and investor sentiment.

4:25 PM ET- Some indexes up, some flat- Barometer tracking stocks neutral. The bias ('Today') stays at caution. The Barometer charts will be ready shortly.

4:44 PM ET- Barometer charts are now ready.

5:44 PM ET- Not much analysis is needed today. If it wasn't for the bias ('Today') being at caution, we would have a forecast change. But until the market gets conviction, we are stuck with a caution advisory from the Barometer. All three plots are headed down which normally indicates a negative stock market. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

8/6/03 Wednesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral, possibly negative open.

10:57 AM ET- With little economical data to be released over the next several days, traders will be left with geopolitical events, rumors and "what if" to occupy their buy/sell strategy. This could be dangerous as, according to the Barometer, any further negative days in the market could spell a deep pullback. If we do go to a pullback, we could end up at least down into the March 2002 channel. It may not take long to get there but to get there and out of the channel could take two to four weeks. A negative day today, would signal the potential retreat of the market, according to the Barometer Leading-Indicator. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:31 PM ET- Market ends mixed- but the Barometer indicates a negative day. This means Thursday could be very volatile. There will be more about where we go from here within an hour. [Barometer]

5:31 PM ET- Unless the market makes a turnaround Thursday, and closes well above today's closing, it would be as-much as a confirmation that the market is heading lower. It is possible for the market to dip and test support and then rally- it has happened before. But normally, penetrating support usually indicates further weakness. A Barometer fact- The weekly forecast cannot change (it's at caution right now) unless the 'Today' forecast (it's at caution) has changed in that direction. This means, the forecast cannot be changed to negative until the 'Today' forecast indicates negative. So as long as 'Today' forecast is caution, the forecast will not change. [forecast definitions] [Barometer] [Leading-Indicator]

 

8/5/03 Tuesday-

9:21 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:34 AM ET- The ISM none-manufacturing services number comes in at 65.1%, well above expectations, but market discounts the better than expected number and continues the decline started at the open. The market had a brief positive bounce but continued the selling to the lows of the morning. The 'Today' forecast has been changed to negative and the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

12:12 PM ET- At midday, the major indexes are just off the lows of the day. An updated Market Memo is out that indicates a low to moderate chance of a sell-off in the future- especially if bad news comes along... more...

4:26 PM ET- Market ends at the lows with steep selling in the last hour. Cisco will have to have very good news to get buyers back. Barometers have been updated.

5:30 PM ET- It appears we are one trade day away from a forecast change, unless the market has a positive day... The bad news is, the Barometer-plot (yellow) has dipped to the June 2003 lower-channel boundary... Check out the Barometer Leading-Indicator.

9:59 PM ET- Cisco Systems reported quarterly results of 14 cents a share... more...

 

8/4/03 Monday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start.

11:20 AM ET- Market opens on a sour note, discounting good news on factory orders data. The Barometer forecast is waiting to see if today's slide will bottom out somewhere or will it continue its downward trend. A little more data is needed before 'Today' (bias) indicator is changed.

4:44 PM ET- Mixed ending today but indexes close well off the lows. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:34 PM ET- With little in the way of news to guide the market, buyers came in after sellers this morning and bid stocks higher, to end well off the lows but under the highs of the day. Cisco Systems report Q4 results Tuesday and the ISM Services report are about the only events for Tuesday. We could see another flat day. If you look at the Barometer Leading-indicator, it is strung-out with very little gap between positive and negative boundaries. This could mean it may not take much to begin another rally or a sell-off. It would be hard to believe that the market can travel in this very tight trading range for long. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

8/1/03 Friday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a neutral-flat open on mixed economical data released earlier this morning- traders wait for the ISM PMI number.

10:53 AM ET- Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI number came in weak (51.8%) but over 50%, meaning the economy is expanding, but not as economists had expected. With the unexpected  jobs data, and the ISM PMI number- traders are selling both treasuries and stocks. The cash pool is building and the question is, where will this cash go. Strategists will not keep cash for long, so it will come down to-  cash back into bonds or stocks. We could continue in the Barometer channel (sideways consolidating market) until equity traders are moved to sell off stocks or continue the rally. Barometer indicates caution.

4:15 PM ET- Market ends on a sour note, treasuries back up, yields back down- cash building, waiting to go somewhere. Barometer shows sideways market with the plot in the middle of the channel. The Barometer continues to indicate caution going forward.

 

7/31/03 Thursday-

9:19  AM ET- Look for a positive open on jobs data still under 400,000, for the second week and Advance GDP came in very strong. Both economical data points  suggests that the market advance, since March, is justified- also suggests that the economy is improving.

10:24  AM ET- Chicago PMI comes in better than expected- could be preview of the ISM PMI out Friday. Market reacts well, but off the highs of the morning. Some traders say that the market has already priced in the good data and indexes could continue in range-bound trading until corporate earnings or preannouncements support the better than expected expansion of the economy. The Barometer indicates caution.

11:25 AM ET- The Barometer models are now indicating caution with a positive bias. The models also indicate a possible pullback during lunch with a continuation of the rally near the close. Probability is about 40%.

4:15 PM ET- Market closes positive- but off the highs of the day. Being the last trade day of the month, traders and investors may be selling stocks they don't want to carry into the new month (for cash to get back in when the rally continues). We shall see- as a bunch of economical indicators will be released Friday, among them are the unemployment rate and ISM PMI. Market could have a volatile day. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

 

7/30/03 Wednesday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral open.

12:58 PM ET- At midday, major indexes hug the flat line while marketers wait for news to trade on. Excluding geopolitical news, Thursday's economical data most likely will give traders momentum. On tap is Initial Claims and later in the session the all important Chicago PMI. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

4:11 PM ET- NASDAQ ends 1/2% down for the day, other major indexes end nearly where they began- flat. The Barometer models are still running and the update should be ready by 4:45 PM ET.

4:48 PM ET- The Barometer leading-indicator models were run and continue to indicate caution with a negative bias. The Barometer chart is available and continues to show the channel (sideways movement of the market) being built but the next two days of trading could change all that.

5:17 PM ET- Website note: Don't forget this weekend the Barometer Leading-indicator will be permanently displayed on its new page- in the Markets section of the site. Time table will be published so that you don't have to keep checking the site. The Leading-Indicator is used to make forecast changes and it can be used to assist in "swing trading".

 

7/29/03 Tuesday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a positive-to-neutral open- traders wait on Consumer Confidence report- out at 10:00 ET.

11:02 AM ET- Consumer Confidence takes  a nosedive, well below economists expectation. Causes market, led by the S&P, to do likewise. Since the current Barometer-plot is in the center of the Barometer channel, it will only take a couple of negative market days to reach the bottom and If breached, could indicate a market sell-off. The Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias.

4:13 PM ET- Stocks tried to make a comeback- but it was unsustainable. At near closing, the indexes were heading to the lows of the day. With little good news to offset the disappointing Consumer Confidence numbers, buyers elected to wait on more economical news. Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias.

5:44 PM ET- With key economical data yet to come: Initial Claims - GDP Adv. - Chicago PMI - Unemployment rate - ISM PMI.  traders and investors will wait and see what's next before committing to the buy side and may have no problem committing to the sell side. The market may be tame Wednesday with Thursday and Friday being possible volatile days.

 

7/28/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:50 AM ET- At 11:25 ET, major indexes in positive territory with traders looking forward to a slew of key economical reports- out in the next 6 trade days. Among them are consumer confidence, jobs data, Chicago PMI, and the ISM PMI. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:26 PM ET- Mixed end for stocks as investors and traders wait for more news on corporate 2Q results and economical data that justifies today's prices. [Barometer]

5:21 PM ET- With treasuries going down, yields up, stocks and the market going sideways, tons of economical data yet to be released, makes some traders believe that the economy and corporate spending, in the second-half of the year, as much as a done-deal. If they are right- the market will be justified at these levels- but if wrong, could lead to selling. Look for the market to respond to just about every piece of news released this and next week. Barometer indicates caution.

 

7/25/03 Friday-

9:22 AM ET- Market to open neutral. Durable goods orders exceeds economists expectations. Barometer indicates caution this morning.

11:26 AM ET- The market is slightly negative, this morning, on good overall corporate earnings and good economical indicators. It appears that the market is discounting all the good news, as most of this latest rally already has it priced into stocks. Since good news is being discounted, it will take great news to move the market higher. And it will take very little bad news to move the market lower. If neither, the market goes sideways as it consolidates. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:16 PM ET- Market turns around midmorning and never looks back. DOW ends with a nice gain, outperforms the NASDAQ, and ends up nearly 100 points for the week. Even though it was a good day, the market still is moving sideways.

5:12 PM ET- Site Note. This and next weekend, we are adding the Barometer Leading-indicator to the website. Its home will be near the Barometer page, which will be setup this weekend. Next weekend, we will add the Barometer Leading-indicator chart. Check by this weekend to see the progress and to get a heads-up on what this indicator can do for you.

 

7/24/03 Thursday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a positive open on better than expected jobs data and corporate earnings.

11:03 AM ET- Market is positive, in midmorning trade, on better than expected jobs data- those claiming unemployment for the first time, dropped under 400,000 last week. Also, good earnings from company's reporting this week.

4:18 PM ET- Big sell-off hits after a slow but positive day. At about 2:00 PM ET a sell-off began on several rumors, one of which is the U.S. alert level will changed later today. It's also being reported a large automated computer trade hit and spooked traders. The Barometer indicates caution going into Friday.

4:32 PM ET- The Barometer continues to show movement of the market in a sideways direction. Friday's market will depend on earnings report tonight and if the U.S. goes to a higher alert level, as rumored.

10:24 PM ET- eBay exceeds expectations and announces 2 for 1 stock split.

 

7/23/03 Wednesday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a positive open.

11:53 AM ET- With 2Q earnings season peaking, traders and investors will balance the earnings reports and decide who wins- Bears or Bulls. The Barometer chart clearly shows a channel with the plot moving within its boundary's. Until something convinces the market to go one way or the other, we will be trapped in the channel that indicates a sideways market. The next big thing (outside of geopolitical events) will be the PMI reports out in 6 trade days from today. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:14 PM ET- Market ends positive- but there is a tug-of-war going on between Bears and Bulls. The Barometer chart shows the building of the June channel Vs. the March 2002 channel. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.    

 

7/22/03 Tuesday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:34 AM ET- At 11:15 ET the market indexes are mixed, with the DOW off slightly, NASDAQ and S&P up slightly. Since the latest plot (yesterday's market) on the Barometer is at the lower consolidation support-line, any further negative market action most likely will cause the Barometer leading indicator- to indicate further downside movement of the market. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

1:03 PM ET- U.S. military sources tell news agencies that during a gun battle in Mosul Iraq, several Iraqis were killed. Odai and Qusai, sons of Saddam, probably among the dead. Markets react to the news sending the indexes higher in midday trading.

4:14 PM ET- Market ends positive- Averted a negative day by news out of Iraq. Barometer continues to indicate caution.

5:40 PM ET- It has been widely reported that the U.S. military has confirmed that Saddam sons, Odai and Qusai, were killed in a gun battle in Mosul Iraq today. The market immediately reacted positive to the rumor and should be favorable to the market when it opens Wednesday. Meanwhile, Amazon reported a narrower loss and higher revenue from a year earlier as it continues to drive costs down. Stock was up in after-hours trade.  

 

7/21/03 Monday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a flat open and for a slew of earnings this week.

11:58 AM ET- Market continues on a negative stance- but you have to wonder, with bond yields on the way up, where will bond money go- if not bonds? The 10-year note was above 4.00 percent and the 30-year was above 4.90 percent this morning.

4:18 PM ET- Stocks sell-off, bonds under pressure- Where will all this money end-up? It won't be in CD's or money markets. Traders and investors are going to have to put all of the proceed to work somewhere. All of this could come to a head when the Chicago-ISM PMI reports are released. The Barometer still shows sideways movement with a negative bias.

5:54 PM ET- We seem to have a seesaw market. When you look at the Barometer chart you notice that the Barometer-plot is headed sideways in the channel. With the sell-off in bonds, you could make a case that proceeds are making it into stocks at the expense of higher bond yields. If  traders and investors determine that the economy may not recover as fast as first thought, and earnings don't spark traders into buying stocks, we could get a rather large sell-off in stocks with those proceeds going back into higher yield bonds. It will be very important for the stock market, in the next two weeks, to get some earnings that the market can rally around. And don't forget that the Chicago PMI and ISM PMI are two weeks off. The Barometer continues to indicates caution with a negative bias.

 

7/18/03 Friday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. traders wait on sentiment report out after the open.

1:03 PM ET- 'Today' was changed from negative to caution because the performance of the  DOW and S&P are considered good. The NASDAQ is underperforming today, but has been leading the latest advance. Its performance is considered good.

4:27 PM ET- Traders bid stocks higher and bonds lower. The question now, will the Barometer channel hold prices of stocks down or if we get exceptional economical data (Chicago PMI, and ISM PMI) in two weeks, a breakout from the channel to the continuation of the rally. The opposite is true. If the economical data is below expectations, we could see a channel break to the downside. Meanwhile, we could stay in or near the channel for the next two week.

5:15 PM ET- Bulls power ahead today on last half outlook- they expect 2003 to go out like a lion. This Saturday the models will be run and analyzed to see what can be expected over the short-term. Results should be ready by noon eastern.

 

7/17/03 Thursday-

9:07 AM ET- Look for moderate selling at the open and possibly a negative day as well. Traders are disappointed in some earnings, but economical data seems to point to better times ahead.

10:47 AM ET- Traders and Investors might be saying it's hard to buy at these levels- so now what? The Barometer chart shows heavy sentiment resistance and it normally would take some substantial good news to light a fire under the market. It appears the market is saying it's easier to sell than to buy at this point. We are two weeks away from some key economical data releases, such as an advance look at GDP, then there's the Chicago PMI and the ISM-PMI. Market could stay flat-to- sideways until these data points are released. Barometer indicates caution with a negative bias.

3:09 PM ET- The National Bureau of Economic Research declares the recession ended in November 2001.

4:13 PM ET- Market closes on a negative note. All wait on Microsoft. The Barometer chart now shows the plot at the bottom of a developing channel.

5:18 PM ET- Microsoft reports revenue of $8.1 billion for the quarter, an 11% increase.

5:49 PM ET- The market is in a pickle. There is a channel developing with today's plot right at the bottom of the developing channel. If Friday's market is negative, it would indicate the continuation of the pullback. If neutral or positive, the indication would be sideways movement of the market. With key economical data coming-up in two weeks, there is evidence that we probably will not see a significant move in ether direction until fresh economical data is released. For now, the Barometer indicate caution with a negative bias.

 

7/16/03 Wednesday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

12:28 PM ET- At midday trade, market is negative with little overall movement since the pullback/consolidation began on June 6. The DOW opened at 9041 on June 6 and as of 11:43 AM ET today, the DOW was at 9068 up 27. The NASDAQ did much better. It was 1646 at the open on June 6 and as of 11:43 AM ET today, the index was 1741, up 95, outperforming the DOW by about 5% over the pullback/consolidation period. The question now is where will the market go from here. It is believed that the tech laden NASDAQ will lead the market in the continuation of the rally if earnings beat expectations and if managers forward-looking assessment of business is positive. According to the Barometer leading-indicator, we could pullback a little more before charging ahead. The next couple of days may determine the short-term direction.

4:51 PM ET- Stocks sag on directionless day. DOW and NASDAQ end nearly where they were at midday. Traders and Investors wait for the next big thing to come along to give them reason to buy or to sell the market, otherwise sideways movement is indicated.

5:31 PM ET- IBM reports second quarter results- they said second quarter income, from continuing operations, grew by 11 percent.

 

7/15/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a positive start to the market as traders await Greenspan speech and Intel earnings report. The Government reported June retail sales advance 0.5%.

12:13 PM ET- Stocks drift while Alan Greenspan gives testimony to Congress. Greenspan reassures that the Federal Reserve will be there for the economy and that the outlook is improving. He further said, "given the now highly stimulative stance of monetary and fiscal policy and well-anchored inflation expectations, the Committee concluded that economic fundamentals are such that situations requiring special policy actions are most unlikely to arise." 

4:25 PM ET- Market can't hold gains- Barometer indicates heavy sentiment resistance at this level.

5:33 PM ET- The Barometer chart indicates a brick wall of resistance and several attempts to get past has proven futile. Could it be- traders have bid the market up already expecting good times ahead and now selling on the news? We will see, as Intel put in a very good quarter and the stock is up in after-hours trade. Traders may want to wait around and see what other market-movers (IBM and Microsoft) will do. For now the weekly forecast stays at caution with a negative bias.

 

7/14/03 Monday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a positive open on continued expectations that Intel, IBM, Microsoft (and others, including banks) earnings and outlook will justify this market.

11:19 AM ET- Stocks advance on expected good week with numerous events that will indicate how the economy is doing and how company's have done and will do in last half of the year. Major week that most likely will decide if the rally continues or not. Banks reporting show profits from consumers that continue to support the economy. Intel, IBM, and Microsoft all report this week in addition to key economical indicators such as PPI, housing starts, jobless data, and retail sales to name a few. Alan Greenspan is scheduled to give testimony on the state of the economy and markets usually listen and try to glean economical direction from his speech. This week will most likely determine direction. So hold on- could get volatile.

4:30 PM ET- Market ends positive but DOW gives up most of the gains of the day. The Barometer indicates heavy resistance at this level- can the market put in another day of positive trade? Models are being run to try and answer that question. Should have results within an hour.

5:37 PM ET- Barometer models were run and the results indicate heavy sentiment resistance at the level we are now at. The Barometer leading-indicator indicates that a forecast change should be made to indicate positive for the remainder of the week- but- Reuters is reporting that a possible trade in error on the minis sent the market down in afternoon trading. There was no further information on this trade. Because of this possible error, we elected to keep the forecast as-is until further information can be obtained and to see where trade goes Tuesday.

 

7/11/03 Friday-

9:17 AM ET- GE reports mixed results- look for the market to open neutral-to-positive.

11:55 AM ET- GE reacting well- market reacting well. Traders are dismissing second-quarter earnings, as they see that as history. What they bid on is the future and as long as the future looks promising, the market will stay mostly positive. According to the Barometer, we will need several days of positive market action to get out of the sideways movement in the market. If the market cannot muster positive environment but doesn't sell-off next week, we will be in a consolidation until the next big market-mover announces earnings. For now, the Barometer indicates caution with a bias of negative.

4:19 PM ET- Stocks end the day positive- averting, for now, further pullback. The bias ('Today' forecast) was changed to caution from negative in response to the markets ability to hold a positive attitude and advance in the last hour of trade.

5:32 PM ET- Why is the market acting so positive! Traders and investors are very sure that market-movers will beat estimates and that they will have a good- but guarded forward-looking outlook on the last half of 2003. According to the Barometer, the market is positioned to go either way, so hold on, the volume could pick up next week with major players such as IBM, Intel, and Microsoft reporting. The Barometer indicates caution going into next week.

 

7/10/03 Thursday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for the market to open down on poor jobs data released earlier this morning. Also, Yahoo's earnings results are being dealt with negatively by traders and that will hurt the NASDAQ on the open.

11:03 AM ET- As of 10:25 AM ET the DOW has stabilized after the initial drop on negative jobs data that indicated more U.S. workers are claiming unemployment. More data is needed but the Barometer is beginning to suggests that the market could be entering a period of sideways movement, a consolidation. The Barometer remains at caution.

4:13 PM ET- Profit takers take stocks down but close just off the low of the day.

5:26 PM ET- With today's loss in the market comes a one day only reprieve. The Barometer leading-indicator is on the verge of indicating further declines for the indexes and stocks. One more negative day in the market would signal more  of a pullback in store for stocks. The forecast, according to the Barometer, continues to indicate caution for the time being.

 

7/9/03 Wednesday-

9:17 AM ET- Look for a negative-to-neutral open as the market focuses on Yahoo.

11:40 AM ET- Sellers take profit, spurred by news that U.S. wholesale inventories dropped by 0.3%- it was expected to gain 0.2% in May... The Barometer models will run after lunch to determine adjustment to the forecast.

4:04 PM ET- No short-term direction has been detected by the Barometer models. After the close, Yahoo is scheduled to report earnings and forward-looking statements. Models will be run to determine any shift in market direction. Market closes on a mixed note.

5:29 PM ET- Yahoo meets target, stock down in after-hours trade... Barometer models are still running. Results should be out within the hour.

6:12 PM ET- Barometer models were run and the results indicate today's trade as negative. This means the bias, or the 'Today' forecast, is lowered to caution from generally positive. This is one of several steps that could lead to further weakness in the market in the near-term, according to the Barometer. The 'Today' forecast now reads caution and since 'This week' forecast already indicated caution and the Barometer leading-indicator is already indicating caution- if we don't get several positive days in the market we could be looking at the continuation of the pullback. Thursday's trade will be key in determining market direction. 

 

7/8/03 Tuesday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open, as traders and investors gear-up for reporting season.

11:56 AM ET- As we get into earnings season, traders and investors will drive the market up or down depending on earnings of market-movers. To start with Alcoa (DOW stock) reports after the close today and Yahoo (NASDAQ stock) reports Wednesday. Depending on how these company's do and what they say will, for the most part, determine direction of the market for the short-term. The forward-looking statements from these, and others, will be digested and reacted upon. The Barometer continues to indicate 'This Week' caution.

2:14 PM ET- Indexes hold close to neutral all day- DOW down 27.66, SP down 1.54, and NASDAQ up 12.04.

4:12 PM ET- Markets advance in the last half-hour of trade. Because of the late advance in the DOW, the models will take a little longer to run. Results should be out within the hour.

5:16 PM ET- The Barometer leading-indicator indicates a chance that the market to continue the positive attitude fostering generally favorable environment for stocks. The reason for underlining 'a chance' is- the models are on the verge of indicating a positive environment. It is that close that it could take another one to two days to determine where the market goes from here. Alcoa and Yahoo may decide the short-term direction. For now, 'This Week' stays at caution with a bias of positive.

6:13 PM ET- Alcoa profits down but beats the street. Stock is up in after-hours trade. 

 

7/7/03 Monday-

9:20 AM ET- Market is set to open positive on continued hope that business will pickup and that low interest rates will spur capital spending.

10:15 AM ET- 'Today' forecast was changed to generally positive. It was positive on Thursday but then was changed to caution when the market ended negative. It was later found out that a broker had submitted a trade in error causing dow futures to dive. CBOT is investigating.

11:40 AM ET- The rally continues on several upbeat news items. It is being reported Microsoft is considering giving back nearly 10 billion of its over 40 billion cash to shareholders in the form of a special dividend. Also there are indication some bears are covering today as they see higher upside to the market. The Barometer indicates 'This week' caution for at least today.

4:17 PM ET- NASDAQ outperforms, 3.5% gain for the day. The rest of the market did very well with closes over 1.6% for the DOW and 1.9% for S&P. Models are being run to determine where we go from here. Should be available in one hour.

5:13 PM ET- The Barometer models have run and indicate that if Tuesday is a positive day in the market, it would be enough to change the forecast to 'generally positive'. If both Tuesday and Wednesday are positive, that would nearly confirm the end of the mini-pullback. As it stands now, the Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution for the week. 

 

7/3/03 Thursday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a negative start as traders deal with unexpected jobs data.

11:12 AM ET- Traders are whip lashed with-  poor jobs data released earlier this morning and then ISM service sector index, released within the hour, that blows by expectations to the positive side of things. With just two hours left in today's trading, the Barometer indicates a chance that 'Today' could still become positive during the last hour.

2:24 PM ET- U.S. stock market closed at 1:00 PM ET, to observe Independence Day. The Barometer had calculated a chance that the market would turnaround in the last hour of trade, partially because of the outstanding ISM Service non-manufacturing report. But the market ended in the negative today- but could have sold-off, if it weren't for the positive outlook of the economy and the hope that business will pickup in the second-half of the year. The 'Today' indicator (precursor to the weekly forecast) was lowered to caution.

3:25 PM ET- Reuters News Service is reporting that the CBOT is investigating a large trade made in error on the mini-DOW futures that caused a sell-off in the market just as the market was beginning to rally on the ISM Service news. We will never know how the market would have ended today- positive or not- but this error caused traders to act differently than they probably would have. The correction to trader sentiment most likely will be made-up by Monday. 

 

7/2/03 Wednesday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start. Today is the last full session of the week- Thursday the markets close early and Friday is the U.S. 4th. of July holiday, market will be closed.

11:01 AM ET- Traders will begin drifting out to get a jump on the long weekend. With low volume expected today and Thursday, any stock movements could be exaggerated by the low volume. Market indexes are expected to stay near neutral-to-positive through the remainder of the week. DOW up 53.36, NASDAQ up 23:11, and SP up 6.23.

3:53 PM ET- As the market prepares to close higher, the 'Today' forecast has been changed to mostly positive, but 'This Week' continues to indicate caution. More about this after the close.

4:30 PM ET- Market closes higher on a steady advance all day long. Traders are expecting second-quarter results to, for the most part, beat expectations. Earlier the 'Today' forecast was changed to mostly positive from caution because the market is showing positive signs and because the models indicate that 'This Week' forecast could change. The 'Today' forecast is not only a gage of today's trading forecast but more importantly it's a precursor for the weekly forecast. More about the forecast after the models have been run and analyzed.

5:40 PM ET- Models have been run and the Barometer leading-indicator indicates continued caution for the week. Although the forecast has not changed with today's market, it appears that if Thursday is positive, the forecast could change. The problem with using data on a short- low volume day- is, the market metrics used in the models can be diluted. Therefore, depending on Thursday's trading activity, the models could indicate caution even though Thursday turns out to be a positive day- it will depend on the validity of the data.

 

7/1/03 Tuesday-

9:21 AM ET- Look for a negative start. ISM PMI data scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET. Could be a market mover.

10:31 AM ET- ISM PMI of 49.8, below 50, meaning manufacturing is still contracting not expanding. Equity traders react with sell-off, although the selling pressure was relieved somewhat after the initial shock. Barometer unchanged, still indicates caution for the week. 

4:19 PM ET- Big comeback for the market- but on light volume. Traders are winding down, getting ready for a long weekend and with that comes less trading. But bulls take it to the upside once again. The Barometer suggests caution for the week.

 

6/30/03 Monday-

9:27 AM ET- Look for a positive start. Intel gets an upgrade and traders await an expected good read from the Chicago PMI index.

10:24 AM ET- The S&P 500 index is not displaying the correct value. That index is temporarily out of order.

11:08 AM ET- Chicago PMI comes in below expectation and brings the market down at midmorning trading but holds onto gains. The Barometer continues to indicate caution for the week.

4:43 PM ET- Indexes end slightly negative, while stocks end near neutral- Barometer sees today as a mixed or neutral day. Models are being run to see where we go from here, should be ready in an hour.

5:38 PM ET- The Barometer leading-indicator continues to indicate caution for the week. According to the Barometer, it would take three consecutive days of positive market environment to avert a pullback. Most likely the ISM PMI release Tuesday will move the market depending how far from expectation it is. "Today's"  forecast continues to indicate "mostly negative", but could change to caution if traders act positively Tuesday.

 

6/27/03 Friday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open. Traders wait on fresh economical data, out just after the open.  

11:19 AM ET- Major indexes hold a slight advance waiting on something to move them one way or the other. Could be slow day today as the next big thing on the calendar is quarterly preannouncements and the ISM release. The Institute for Supply Management releases its index on Tuesday and that could be a market mover. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.   

4:36 PM ET- Traders take profits causing the market to slide in advance of the end of the 2nd quarter and the release of the ISM report due out Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management index will be released on Tuesday and if the reading comes in unexpected, it could cause market volatility (up or down) depending on if it's good or bad news. The last pullback we had was started on unexpected bearish reading of the ISM index and we pulled back to the Barometer baseline. There is still a slim possibility that the market can continue the advance if Monday ends either positive or neutral. The Barometer leading-indicator is on the verge of signaling a negative environment.

 

6/26/03 Thursday-

9:10 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open, as traders digest latest economical data.

11:34 AM ET- The Barometer indicates intraday trend of the DOW to be somewhat negative. Any change to the forecast, especially the intraday forecast, could come as early as mid-afternoon trade. The short-term ('This Week') forecast could change if the market ends on a negative note.

2:50 PM ET- The intraday ('Today') was changed from negative to caution because it appears that traders are continuing to discount the Fed weak appraisal of the economy. We have less than two hours in trade and it appears the market will close positive. If the close is positive, further risk of downside movement of the market is lessening and the forecast would stay at caution as apposed to going to a negative stance.

4:20 PM ET- Major indexes and stocks end the day positive. Some risk of further downside movement of the market is still possible. The positive trend in the market, as depicted by the Barometer chart, has clearly been broken. The Barometer leading-indicator model is being run to determine how likely it would be for the market to move lower as apposed to moving higher. Those results should be available within the hour. For now, the forecast stays at caution.

5:36 PM ET- The Barometer leading-indicator 'model' was run to determine the risk of further downside movement of the stock market. The results are: to avert a pullback or consolidation of the market at current levels, 3 to 5 trade days of mostly (3 positive days, 1 negative day and 1 neutral day would be acceptable)  positive market-action is needed to avoid further weakness. Anything less could cause further weakness and a confirmation of a pullback. Pullbacks in the market should be expected, as it is important for the market to rest by means of consolidating or by pulling back. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

 

6/25/03 Wednesday-

9:10 AM ET- Look for a neutral start- all eyes are on the Fed's decision. Will they cut by 1/4 and what will they say about the economy.

11:21 AM ET- Market is positive in mid-day trade in advance of the Fed's decision on interest rates. The Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution until the statement (bias statement) is known and reacted to by traders. Interest rate cut is one thing (and is expected) but the stance of the Fed on the economy will indicate to traders where the Fed plans to go from here and that is most important to traders outlook on stocks. The Fed should announce its decision at about 2:15 PM ET.

2:18 PM ET- The Federal Reserve cut rates by 1/4 percent. The Barometer indicates caution until the FOMC statement is reacted upon by traders. 

4:25 PM ET- Market ends down on traders negative reaction to FOMC statement on the recovery of the economy. The Barometer indicates further risk of downside movement of the market.

5:48 PM ET- The Barometer models were ran, this afternoon, to determine if the 'Weekly'  forecast should be changed based on data through today's market action. The outcome is mixed. That is to say, there is enough data to indicate further downside risk- but since this data reflects trader reaction to the FOMC, it was decided to hold-off on a forecast change until Thursday market data has been input to the models. 'This Week' forecast will stay at 'caution' until the models have evaluated Thursday's data. 

 

6/24/03 Tuesday-

9:26 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. The Barometer indicates a wait and see attitude at least until the Consumer Confidence report is released at 10:00 AM ET.

4:33 PM ET- Stocks end mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve rate cut.

5:54 PM ET- Caution is the word, according to the Barometer. It's nearly dead-even that the Fed will reduce rates by either 1/4 or 1/2 percent. There may be a slight edge to 1/2 percent (50 basis point) cut, but either is possible. The market could sell-off no matter what the Fed does. More important than the cut itself, is what the Fed says in the statement that accompanies the rate cut. The more aggressive they are, the more uncertainty there will be about the meager recovery that seems to be underway. We haven't had a solid pullback yet and overtime that could hurt the rally, as the market cannot continue making advances without stock valuations getting back in-line with reality. The Barometer leading-indicator is at a point that indicates the market could go either way, thus, caution for Wednesday until a firm trend develops.

 

6/23/03 Monday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open as the market focuses on the Fed.

12:26 PM ET- Stocks continue the sell-off as traders are uncertain what the Federal Reserve will do. The Barometer indicates a much needed pullback is healthy if the market advance is to continue. Barometer indicates caution at least through mid-afternoon trade.

4:10 PM ET- Predictable! Is this the pullback? Most likely. Could see more downside risk as taking profits seems to be the strategy. The Barometer has gone from 'caution' to 'negative' for at least the opening Tuesday.

4:55 PM ET- The Barometer leading-indicator indicates that if Tuesday market ends negative (DOW and NASDAQ down) the forecast most likely will change to indicate 'Negative' for the week. Of course the Feds action will move the market one way or the other, so there could be as many as two forecast changes this week. 

 

6/20/03 Friday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a positive start on quadruple witching- that's when some futures and options expire- all on the same day. This can cause wide swings in the market. Could be a volatile day. Barometer calls for caution until a trend develops.

4:55 PM ET- Mixed day- but at least it wasn't a negative day, according to the Barometer. With this week out of the way- it's onto "Fed week", when all the maneuvering of traders comes down to what the Fed really does. The forecast calls for 'caution' next week, so there won't be a forecast change, unless something happens over the weekend.

 

6/19/03 Thursday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral to possibly negative open. Barometer indicates caution until a trend develops.

4:10 PM ET- Market is becoming nervous. Some are saying the Fed may not cut rates at all, others are saying they wont cut by 1/2 but by 1/4 percent. Who is right? That's the problem, no one knows. The Barometer leading-indictor indicates that if Friday is negative we could fall further in the following week- we could have a forecast change.

5:58 PM ET- The big topic for the next several days is, what will the Fed do with interest rates. Even if the news is good- we still could see a sell-off. Why? Sometimes the market buys the rumor and sells on fact. So even if the Fed cuts the rate by 1/2 percent (50 basis points), that doesn't mean the rally continues. We are in need of a pullback to allow earnings/earnings-potential to catch up with stock prices. That means either a consolidation or a pullback. The more the market ignores a pullback or consolidation, amplifies a sell-off when it does come. The Barometer forecast could change Friday- if Friday is a negative trade day.

 

6/18/03 Wednesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a negative open and possibly a flat to negative day as a pullback could begin.

4:33 PM ET- Market ends mixed, with DOW and S&P down, NASDAQ up. Barometer sees the day as sideways movement.

5:47 PM ET- The next big event is the FOMC, Federal Reserve meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. Market will react to both the amount of the rate cut (1/4 or 1/2 percent) and the statement that indicates the Fed bias on the economy. The next couple of trade days sees a few more economical data releases that could move stocks, one way or the other. The Barometer's leading-indicator indicates caution for Thursday until a trend develops. We could see more sideways movement of the market, especially if there is a lack of news.

 

6/17/03 Tuesday-

9:18 AM ET- Look for a positive start on CPI and Housing starts that exceed expectations.

4:38 PM ET- A little rest is good for body, soul, and stocks. We could see sideways (consolidation) movement- as traders gear up for the Fed in one week.

5:51 PM ET- The Barometer indicates that it would take very positive news to move the market much beyond current levels. Bulls and Bears are not likely to make big bets this close to the FOMC meeting set for early next week. Especially now that the market has come so far in a relatively short period of time. The Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution until a trend develops Wednesday.

 

6/16/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a positive start this morning.

10:12 AM ET- We are experiencing streaming-data problems and the indexes are not displaying the correct price.  DOW 9174 + 57, NASDAQ 1637 + 11, SP 996 + 7.

10:59 AM ET- Most indexes are now displaying correct values. NASDAQ sill is not streaming correctly.

11:19 AM ET- Market is rallying with high expectations of a turnaround economy helped by better than expected N.Y. manufacturing data. Barometer is indicates caution going through midday trading.

4:21 PM ET- Market continues on a string of good news. Bears might get some revenge if the DOW and NASDAQ don't pause for a bit.

 

6/13/03 Friday-

9:17 AM ET- Look for a flat-to-positive open. The Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution.

4:24 PM ET- Negative day- but expected! With just a little over a week away from a Fed rate-cut, the markets may tread water (pullback or consolidation) until we know how much rates are going to be cut. Virtually all experts believe rates will be cut- a large number believe by 1/2 percent. This event most will be a market-mover.

4:38 PM ET (corrected)- Negative day- but expected! With just a little over a week away from a Fed rate-cut, the markets may tread water (pullback or consolidation) until we know how much rates are going to be cut. Virtually all experts believe rates will be cut- a large number believe by 1/2 percent. This event will be a market-mover.

 

6/12/03 Thursday-

9:25 AM ET- Look for a positive start as more experts are expecting 1/2 percent Fed cut in interest rates. The very soft economical data nearly guarantees a rate cut- its to the point of how much, 1/4 or 1/2 percent. 

4:43 PM ET- Mixed ending causes some concern that the market (indexes) may need to consolidate or pullback. The Barometer chart shows a double-peak that could indicate lower movement of the market if Friday is not a positive day. The Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution for Friday.

 

6/11/03 Wednesday-

9:17 AM ET- Market looks to open mixed with strength in the DOW and a more neutral-to-negative open for NASDAQ. Barometer still indicates caution going into the open.

4:20 PM ET- Another bus explosion in Jerusalem kills several passengers and wounding even more put the breaks on the market but stocks went on to close much higher in afternoon trading. A growing number of experts are anticipating another rate-cut by the Fed (in a couple of weeks) continues to blast the market higher. Barometer continues to indicate positive environment going forward, although a minor pullback could occur soon.

 

6/10/03 Tuesday-  

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. 4:15 PM ET- Market and stocks close on a positive note. DOW and NASDAQ end near the highs of the day. Barometer still indicates caution going into the open Wednesday. 

 

6/9/03 Monday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a negative open on concerns over Motorola comments and Freddie Mac replaces its management team.

4:17 PM ET- Pullback started? Freddie Mac and Motorola help take stocks down- question is- is this the beginning of a pullback. Price of stocks to earnings needs adjusting- so- a healthy pullback is anticipated. 

 

6/6/03 Friday -

9:17 AM ET- Market to open positive on renewed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) outlook. Oracle's bid for PeopleSoft opens the gate for more M&A activity- Good for bull markets.

4:22 PM ET- Rally evaporates into a mixed ending for indexes and stocks. Barometer indicates daily caution- pullback could be around the corner.

 

6/5/03 Thursday-

9:07 AM ET- Look for a negative open. Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution this morning. Market appears to be extended and retracing of some gains should occur to keep market healthy.

4:34 PM ET- Market continues to discount not-so good news and ends the day positive. Friday economical report includes nonfarm payroll, hourly earnings, and unemployment rate. The Barometer indicates daily caution until a stronger trend develops.

 

6/4/03 Wednesday-

9:11 AM ET- Look for a near-neutral open as market looks for direction.

4:30 PM ET- "And the beat goes on". Another very positive day for stocks. How much more before a pullback? See the Barometer- compare today to the 9-11 rally.

 

6/3/03 Tuesday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral to negative open.

4:49 PM ET- Another positive day. Market would have been stronger but IBM and Martha Stewart problems held the DOW back. Greenspan helped the market, a little, by positive comments. And the Barometer indicates getting close to retracing some past gains.

 

6/2/03 Monday-

9:10 AM ET- Look for a positive open. Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution going into the first hour of trade.

10:49 AM ET- A better than expected ISM-PMI of 49.4 sends the market higher early Monday morning. It's early in the month but June's number most likely will be expected to be above 50 percent- above 50 percent indicates manufacturing expanding. Traders most likely will sent the market higher in June in anticipation of a good ISM number for June. Most likely the market will, at some point, pullback in a small retracing of previous gains- a small pullback is needed to keep the market healthy. 

4:44 PM ET- Market ends mostly up with the Barometer indicating a neutral day. Expect a possible small pullback sometime this week- may have started the process today- we might know Tuesday.

 

5/31/03 Saturday-

1:49 PM ET- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report will be released Monday morning, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. The report is a gage on US business activity for a given month. The previous two month PMI (March and April) have indicated contraction. Consensus for May's PMI is 47.0 to 47.3 still below 50% but better than April's 45.4- index value above 50% indicates expansion, below contraction. The Barometer leading-indicator indicates caution going into early morning trade Monday, as traders will react to this number (either positively or negatively) if the PMI comes in unexpectedly.

 

5/30/03 Friday-

9:07 AM ET- Look for a positive open as traders continue to mostly discount bad economical news.

4:18 PM ET- Market ends with solid gains. We will see what the market is made of, come Monday, with the release of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report. Last year the ISM was not acceptable to traders and we began the long pullback that may have just ended- depending on Monday's report.

 

5/29/03 Thursday-

9:05 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open on supportive economical data (Q1 GDP revision) released this morning.

4:27 PM ET- Market ends mixed- with the Barometer indicating neutral. DOW and NASDAQ go separate ways. The all-important ISM report to be released Monday may influence traders Friday. But Friday is last trade day of the month- so could be volatile.

 

5/28/03 Wednesday-

9:07 AM ET- Look for a positive open as traders are anticipating last half of year will show an improved economy.

4:23 PM ET- Traders discount Durable Goods report to end the day positive. New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased 2.4 percent (more than expected), following a 1.4 percent March increase. Traders could react more negatively during Thursday's trade- Barometer indicates caution going into the open.

 

5/27/03 Tuesday-

9:13 AM ET- Look for a negative open.  

3:53 PM ET- Rally takes the market higher. With less than 10 minutes to go, the market and stocks have been launched out of the Barometer channel. Although anything can happen, the Barometer indicates a very positive attitude going into the month of June and the ISM report. Economically speaking, what happens next is based on the ISM report due out June 2.

4:48 PM ET- Market Alert- 'This Week' forecast was changed to 'generally positive' from 'caution' because the Barometer plot has successfully penetrated the long-lasting channel.

 

5/23/03 Friday-

9:13 AM ET- Look for a neutral open. Market may react to the President's tax cut when passed by the Senate.

4:26 PM ET- Indexes end the day neutral- Nobody wants to make much of a move over a long weekend-holiday. This may mean traders are comfortable with the market at these levels.

4:52 PM ET- The NASDAQ ticker (upper-right corner) is displaying the wrong closing change value. The NASDAQ closed at 1510.09 +2.54.

 

5/22/03 Thursday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

4:12 PM ET- Market ends positive, ignoring economical data but expecting the President to sign the $350 billion tax cut.

 

5/21/03 Wednesday-

9:11 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open as traders wait for Greenspan testimony.

4:20 PM ET- Market ends the day mostly positive. We could see flat trading for the next couple of weeks, while traders await the ISM report. Unless we get some big news, we could see  the market consolidate.

 

5/20/03 Tuesday-

9:05 AM ET- Look for a positive start this morning.

4:44 PM ET- Market ends neutral. Stocks survive terror alert notice and non-stop news about the terrorist attacks.

 

5/19/03 Monday-

8:59 AM ET- Look for a negative start to the week.

4:08 PM ET- Weak dollar and increase in terrorist attacks hammers the U.S. stock market.

5:11 PM ET- Market Alert- 'This Week' forecast has been changed to 'caution' because of concerns over the economy, a weak dollar, and an increase in terrorist attacks. A minor pullback is not out of the question, but should be held to a reasonable retrace of the past month gains. The market could pullback, consolidate and wait for the next ISM report due out in a couple of weeks.

 

5/16/03 Friday-

8:55 AM ET- Negative start today on disappointing economical news. At 9:45 AM ET the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number will be released- this most likely will move trading- this is a forward looking measurement and could determine if the positive environment continues or not.

4:48 PM ET- Market slips, but stocks mostly hold onto weeks worth of gains. For now, the Barometer 'This Week' still in the green- positive environment.

 

5/15/03 Thursday-

9:09 AM ET- Look for a positive start but Barometer indicates caution until a trend develops.

4:22 PM ET- Positive day- but can it be done Friday? After several attempts to get out of the Barometer channel, any further weakness or bad news could cause a setback to the equity market moving higher. Dell reported overall good results- could this be news to move stocks higher? Barometer still indicates 'generally positive', but also indicates caution going into the open Friday.

 

5/14/03 Wednesday-

9:00 AM ET- Look for a positive start as traders ignore a disappointing April Retail Sales. Barometer indicates caution today until a trend develops.

4:28 PM ET- Market slips .3 percent for the day. Not real bad considering not so good Retail Sales data. Is there a pullback coming? We should know Thursday. Barometer indicates caution.

 

5/13/03 Tuesday-

9:09 AM ET- Look for stocks to open lower this morning on less buying by traders until more economical data is released Wednesday- Retail Sales could move the market mid-week.

5:15 PM ET- The market ends mostly negative- but the Barometer indicates a neutral day. The good news is, terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia didn't hurt the market, much. The bad news is, we have peaked above the channel for the second time. If Wednesday and Thursday become negative trade day's, we could be looking at a pullback.

 

5/12/03 Monday-

8:54 AM ET- Look for a negative open.

4:15 PM ET- Market and stocks rally on upbeat prospect that the economic data to be released this week will show hint of expansion.

 

5/9/03 Friday-

8:56 AM ET- Look for a positive open, Barometer indicates caution.

4:13 PM ET- Bullish news from Intel and NVIDIA causes strong performance in the market. In order to break out of the Barometer channel, a positive performance in the market will be needed next week.

 

5/8/03 Thursday-

9:00 AM ET- The Barometer indicates caution going into today's trading. The market is at a point that has heavy resistance. In order to break through and above this channel, several days of positive environment in the market is required.

5:36 PM ET- Market and stocks take rest looking for direction. News will move the market within the next couple of days, otherwise there could be a down-side bias.

 

5/7/03 Wednesday-

10:40 AM ET- Market opens lower on some concerns from the Fed and Cisco systems. The FOMC said on Tuesday "the committee perceives that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal". Meanwhile, Cisco Systems posted its second best quarterly net profit and said sales most likely would not rise in the current quarter.

5:11 PM ET- Stocks have a near-neutral day. The news from the Fed and Cisco didn't do a lot of damage- that's the good news. The not so good news is- the market is at the upper boundary of the long-lasting channel. We need a couple days of positive action to get above it. Can it be done? The Barometer indicates caution going into Thursday.

 

5/6/03 Tuesday-

8:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open, and trading to be natural-to-positive up to the FOMC results that will be released early afternoon. Cisco Systems will report financial results for Q3 2003 after the close today- most likely will be an after-hours NASDAQ market mover and influence Wednesday’s trading.

8:11 PM ET- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.

 

5/5/03 Monday-

5:24 AM ET- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet Tuesday to decide if rates need to be changed. The consensus is, rates will be left at 1.25 percent. Today’s trade most likely will be neutral while traders await the Feds next move.

8:36 PM ET- FOMC will meet Tuesday to decide on rates. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave rates unchanged at 1.25 percent. Traders will focus on any verbiage out of the meeting statement for any bias to change rates or simple let rates alone in the near term. Tuesdays market will be determined on what Greenspan says as the official stance on the economy.

 

5/2/03 Friday-

5:27 PM ET- Market rallies on the future economical outlook. Traders hope that we are seeing the bottom of the bad economical data and that future data will show a recovery. 

9:05 AM ET- With a mixed Jobs report (released at 8:30AM ET) , look for a mixed- to neutral open. Trading could be determined by Factory Orders report due out after the open. Barometer indicates generally positive for stocks but also indicates caution until a trend develops today.

 

5/1/03 Thursday-

6:53 AM ET- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report is due out today at 10:00 AM ET and most likely will dictate today’s trading. The Barometer indicates caution going into the ISM report.

5:15 PM ET- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report was worse than expected and traders sold off stocks for an early three digit decline in the DOW. After the initial shock wore off, the market recovered to end the day mixed. The Barometer Stock and News models indicate generally positive environment for trading, but also indicate caution going into Fridays.

 

4/30/03 Wednesday-

5:43 AM ET- The Barometer indicates caution for today.

5:38 PM ET- Stocks consolidate today, traders not willing to bid-up stocks until a clearer economical picture is known. Traders will wait to see the ISM report due out at 10:00 AM ET. It was the ISM report that started the pullback last year. The Barometer still indicates caution going into the ISM report.

 

4/29/03 Tuesday-

10:41 AM ET- Market opened higher on continued good news (and lack of bad news). At 10:00 AM the Consumer Confidence report indicating a rise in consumer sentiment to 81.0 for April from 61.4 in March, 69.8 was expected. The exceptional report sends the market even higher.

4:08 PM ET- Market ends the day positive but the Barometer 'Today' indicator has been set to caution (upper-right corner). Today's trade puts the Barometer-plot in the channel. It will be important to move through this channel if we are to attempt to convert this bear market into a bull market. The Barometer indicates caution for Wednesday.

 

4/28/03 Monday-

9:09 AM ET- Look for a positive open.

5:06 PM ET- Abundant good news (earnings, SARS, N. Korea, and economical data) sends the market on a rally, continuing last weeks drive.

5:53 PM ET- Market Alert- Because of the continuation of last weeks positive market environment, this weeks forecast was changed to positive from caution.

 

4/25/03 Friday-

9:10 AM ET- Look for a flat-to-neutral open on disappointing Advance GDP numbers- market awaits the more important Consumer Sentiment numbers due out after the open. 

4:10 PM ET- Market gives back previous gains in hopes that early next week the mostly positive environment returns. According to the Barometer, another negative day could follow on Monday with a more positive outlook Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

4/24/03 Thursday-

9:05 AM ET- Look for a lower open as the market may take the day off and rest. Generally, the market is up around 5 to 6% for the past two weeks and a pullback could occur today.

4:29 PM ET- A negative but accepted day in the market. Markets cannot go up without retracing, so pay little attention to today's negative end. Friday's market will be determined by the economical data released before the open.

 

4/23/03 Wednesday-

9:05 AM ET- Market set to open neutral.

4:20 PM ET- Market ends on a positive note. The Barometer models indicate market sentiment is positive but bad news can still upset traders but possibly not as much as before. Even though the forecast is green, (generally positive) the models indicate- always be ready for a trend change.

5:32 PM ET- Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said today he would accept another term as head of the Central Bank if the President nominates him, "if President Bush nominates me, and the Senate confirms his choice, I would have every intention of serving".

 

4/22/03 Tuesday-

9:01 AM ET- Look for a negative open.

4:10 PM ET- Market rallied today on good earnings and false terrorism news. Traders began earnest buying when two reports of possible terrorism proved to be false and President Bush said "Alan Greenspan should get another term" as Fed chairman.

 

4/21/03 Monday-

9:31 AM ET- Market opens mixed with a neutral to positive sentiment- awaits key economical data to be released this week that will dictate trade.

4:59 PM ET- Market hugs the flat line, in neutral, awaiting earnings and economical guidance due out this week.

5:21 PM ET- Market ended the day nearly flat. Volume was light indicating not much interest until some key economical indicators are released this week: Beige Book, Advance GDP numbers, and Sentiment revision are due out Wednesday through Friday.

 

4/17/03 Thursday-

9:00 AM ET- Look for a neutral to negative open on continuing concerns of jobless claims (unemployment benefits).

4:05 PM ET- Nice rally ends the week on a positive note. NASDAQ may inspire the rest of the market next week on improving outlook for last half of the year. U.S. stock market closed Friday for the holiday. 

5:02 PM ET- Next weeks forecast was changed to 'mostly positive' from 'caution' because the market environment is becoming more positive. With good results from earnings season (thus far) and mostly improving economical indicators and a general sense by traders and investors that the last half of the year could be better than thought- the forecast was changed to reflect an upbeat market sentiment.

 

4/16/03 Wednesday- Today's market data suggests that Thursday's market could improve- the market is working its way to a base that the market can build upon (or fall from) and that could take time to accomplish. The forecast could change as early as Thursday to a caution-stance, but we can't make that determination until Thursday action is known. Traders are refocusing on fundamentals and could take some time to get everybody (all traders and investors) on the same page. It appears that the NASDAQ is making a move to lead the market in the next positive surge- but could take time to sort out earnings-data and corporate managers forward looking view of growth.

 

4/15/03 Tuesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral- to negative open. 

4:36 PM ET- A positive end to the day on expectations that Intel and Microsoft would at least meet analysts forecasts.

5:23 PM ET- Market Alert- The forecast was changed today to 'generally positive' from 'caution' because early corporate earnings results are favorable and there is less uncertainty from the war in Iraq.

 

4/14/03 Monday-

9:05 AM ET- Look for a neutral- to positive start on good beginning to 1st. quarter earnings and continued good war news over the weekend.

4:07 PM ET- Less war worries, good bank earnings equals a nice positive day- IBM reports after the close- will most likely set the tone for Tuesday.

 

4/11/03 Friday-

9:12 AM ET- Look for a positive open on good economical data (PPI and Retail sales) released this morning. GE reported- inline with expectation.

11:47 AM ET- GE cant help the market at this hour- Earnings inline with expectations.

4:40 PM ET- Traders and investors decide to do little until next week when earnings season gets underway with banks and other major players reporting.

 

 

4/10/03 Thursday-

9:07 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. We'll see if Yahoo's (YHOO) better than expected earnings can inspire some traders.

4:34 PM ET- At least the NASDAQ treaded a little on Yahoo's good news, need a good report from GE Friday morning to get the rest of the market going.

 

 

4/9/03 Wednesday-

9:12 AM ET- Look for a positive open on news of U.S. tanks and troops storm central Baghdad.

4:05 PM ET- Back to the future (the economy). With war looking like it's coming under control, it's the future of the economy and company profits that traders will begin to focus on, possibly tonight as Yahoo reports at 5:00 PM ET.

 

 

4/8/03 Tuesday- The market could be between "war-driven" and "lets get back to fundamentals". There are probably four more pieces of war news that traders are uncertain about: is Saddam gonewhen will the war endany more weapons of mass destruction found, and is Iraq semi-stable. The market could be in a transition from war-driven to focusing on the economy and corporate growth- where it should be.  We might get a hint, if Wall Street is trying to get back to basics, as Yahoo will report Q1 2003 earnings at 5:00 PM eastern on Wednesday. We may see some activity based on their results on Thursday's trade.

 

4/7/03 Monday- 

8:19 AM ET- Look for a rally today on excellent U.S. military accomplishments in Iraq over the weekend. World markets are positive on war news as well.

4:06 PM ET- War rally runs out of steam. Indexes end fractionally higher on possible fears that "ready to go" weapons of mass destruction could put troops in jeopardy. The Barometer update will be late because models are running additional late data.

5:14 PM ET- Barometer models indicate a positive day today even though the market ended the day fractionally higher after the rally sell-off. Further analysis of models indicate that traders reacted positive to war accomplishments this morning but new found fears are beginning to attract traders attention. Tuesdays trade should indicate if the new fears are fact or emotions. Tuesdays Barometer model run should give us a better picture to base any possible change to the forecast.

 

 

4/4/03 Friday-

9:01 AM ET- Look for a positive open on not so good economical news but good war news.

4:52 PM ET- Market consolidates for the weekend. Not knowing what will develop, traders are not willing to buy or sell until they see the developments for control of Baghdad. Good war news over the weekend should inspire the market Monday and possibly for the week.

 

 

4/3/03 Thursday-

9:07 AM ET- Another positive start for the market. U.S. military advances to outskirts of Baghdad today.

4:48 PM ET- Market stalls, awaits U.S. military advance into Baghdad. Although the Index's ended down, the Barometer sees the day as neutral, with a chance of a positive day Friday.

 

 

4/2/03 Wednesday-

8:57 AM ET- Look for a strong positive open on continued (two days) good news coming from the war.

4:05 PM ET- Good war news equals great advance for the market. If the market can stay positive for the rest of the week, hopefully we can break out of the negative environment and begin to refocus.

 

 

4/1/03 Tuesday-

4:07 PM ET- Market positive today helped along by a Saddam Hussein no-show on Iraqi TV. The Barometer indicates caution- see how Wednesday develops.

9:09 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open this morning on a little better outlook.

 

 

3/31/03 Monday- Market sold-off again as traders are uncertain about the length of the war. Somehow, in the early going of the war, they (traders) first thought it would take weeks to accomplish the war objectives. Then the media began reporting that it would take months, not weeks,  to accomplish those objectives. When the market rallied, it was under the premise that the war would be a quick surgical strike without any complications. But once it was reported (the first weekend of the war) that it could take months, the market sold-off the following Monday.   

 

If continues bad news comes from the war and no end insight to the war, we can look for more 'overall' negative action in the market. It is possible for the October lows (Barometer baseline) to be retested. Being this close to the previous test of the lows causes concern that the lows may not hold.

 

At some point the market will price in no end insight to the war but that level of the market, when it gets priced in, could be below the October lows. The market is focused on the uncertainty of the wars-length possibly caused by the disconnect of media reporters and the military. It seems reporters are reporting one thing and the military another.

 

Live embedded reporting (reporters on the battlefield) is most interesting concept but could be detrimental to the market as traders tend to hang on to every word that is reported. In this volatile situation, be prepared for the worse.

 

3/28/03 Friday-

9:11 AM ET- Look for a negative open on same worries.

4:02 PM ET- Stocks fall again on mostly worries about the length and uncertainty of the war.

 

 

3/27/03 Thursday-

9:16 AM ET- Look for a negative start.

11:54 AM ET- Because of the negative concerns of trader/investors and their continued focus on the war, the forecast was changed to caution.

4:37 PM ET- No surprise the market sold off on a longer war than traders first priced into the market. Market did recover some of the losses but the least path of resistance appears to be down until wars-end is seen.  

 

 

3/26/03 Wednesday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a flat to negative open.

5:03 PM ET- Barometer update is late because models are continuing to run. It's a close day as far as determining if today's trade was neutral or positive. Addition time is needed, on days like today, when news of the war put traders uncertain. The problem is that the market could have sold-off on news that Iraqi troops are headed south to possibly attack U.S. troops sometime tonight. Normally, this would be disturbing news to traders- so other metrics are needed to determine the Barometer plot.

5:53 PM ET- The Barometer models indicate today's trade as neutral. The forecast stays as is for now- but can change at any time.

 

 

3/25/03 Tuesday- Investors and traders might be getting more accustom to the war and since a lot of the bad news over the weekend may have now been factored into the market- traders can again try and focus on non-war related items- if at all possible. The Barometer models will digest Wednesday's trade to determine if any change to the forecast is needed. Assuming no more shocking bad news, the trend still looks positive. However, there is some stiff resistance ahead that traders will have to overcome. 

 

3/24/03 Monday- The positive attitude by traders didn't last long. With President Bush stating that the war will go on longer than first anticipated and the negative news on troop movements and unexpected resistance by Iraqi troops, to an attack on U.S. troops by a suspected U.S. troop, the market didn't have a chance. The Barometer now indicates a possible move to caution for the week but trading Tuesday is needed before a final determination can be made. Late last week the Barometer was changed to guarded positive environment but events over the weekend caused the market to respond negatively. We'll see how Tuesday goes before changing the forecast.

 

3/21/03 Friday- Market ends with substantial gains. Averages and stocks started out positive and rallied once the "shock and awe" air campaign against Iraq began. The Barometer leading indicator- indicates a positive environment in the market next week, therefore, the forecast was changed to indicate a guarded positive environment because of the start of war and several other indicators causing the Barometer to indicate a positive attitude with traders.

 

3/20/03 Thursday- Forecast has been changed to mostly positive environment. The initial news from officials and field reporters had some negative affect on the market, but the averages and the market in general recovered to post a positive end to the day. If news of the escalating military action gets no worse than so far reported, the market should continue its move higher. Even though the market is acting positive, any real bad news can send the market negative- so even though the forecast is for a generally positive environment- you should be on guard against any possibly change. 

 

3/19/03 Wednesday- Because of the nature of the environment we find the market in, it continues to be very difficult to determine the trend of the market. Because of the special circumstances (war), it was determined to once again put-off calling a market-trend change for the time being. The "Today's" forecast has been changed to positive- leading to the probability that the "This Week" forecast will also go positive shortly if market conditions so order.

 

3/18/03 Tuesday- Even though the Barometer models and Barometer leading indicator- indicate a positive environment, we elected to re-run the models during mid-day Wednesday to better determine if, indeed, we are turning into a positive market (indications are the market is turning positive). With war looming, it is very difficult to read the data and come up with a definitive answer to the question- is the market now turning around. The models are scheduled to run with the data as of 2:00 PM ET in order to get a better picture of market reactions.

 

Scheduled maintenance- Please note we will be performing scheduled maintenance early this Thursday morning starting at 3:01 AM ET. We expect to complete the maintenance work in 1.5 hours or less. During this maintenance activity, Market-Barometer.com will not be reachable through the Internet. We apologize for any inconvenience this activity may cause.

 

3/17/03 Monday- Is war at hand? War could be avoided if Hussein leaves Iraq within 48 hours. US Britain and Spain withdrawal resolution amendment to 1441. With that gone, 1441 is the authority President Bush will go with when Forces go in and disarm Iraq. President Bush will address the Nation tonight at 8:00 PM ET to give Hussein one last chance and prepare the Nation for war. Meanwhile, UN inspectors and others are leaving Iraq for higher-ground.

 

Even though the market was a solid, heavy volume, positive day, it is to early for the Barometer to indicate anything other than caution for the remainder of the week. But the forecast could change depending on Tuesday's trade.

 

3/14/03 Friday- If the Iraqi army gets to close to U.S. troops, the question of getting U.N. Security Council authority for war would be moot. It is being reported that Iraqi troops and missiles are making their way to the west and could endanger the U.S. bivwac and parts of Israel. Iraq could, inadvertently, start the war, if  they're not careful. The uncertainty of this weighed on the market today, along with everything else. 

 

3/13/03 Thursday- Market rallies on lots of rumors and war experts saying any war with Iraq would be very quick. One rumor going around is Iraqis already talking about surrendering- and the war hasn't even started yet. Another is bin Laden has been captured and will be officially announced within a few days. These are rumors and not fact at this point- but the market trades on rumors, sometimes.

 

The Barometer indicates its to early to know if this is a turnaround or not. Today's positive environment puts the Barometer-plot right at the 11/27 trend line. For this to be anything more than a technical bounce, the market needs to surge through the 11/27 trend line and through the heavy consolidation of the past 4 to 5 weeks. Use extreme caution.

 

 

3/12/03 Wednesday- Looked like we could have had a sell-off today but more rumors kept the market from it. The market emerged from the negative in time for the close. The Barometer still indicates negative going forward unless very good news sparks a reversal.

 

3/11/03 Tuesday- Because of the negative environment in the market today, the forecast was changed to indicate a generally negative environment for the market going forward. Unless there is very good news for Wednesday's trade, to turn the market positive, it is possible that a sell-off with moderate to heavy volume could occur over the next several trade days.

 

3/10/03 Monday- Your probably wondering if the DOW and NASDAQ are down 5 and 2 percent, why has the Barometer been indicating 'caution' (yellow color) for the past several weeks? Great question! The Barometer weekly forecast is based on support and resistance levels and an indicator from the Barometer models. Only when these levels are broken, indicating either positive or negative, does the weekly forecast change from its neutral or 'caution' stance.

 

A 'caution' forecast means the market can be either positive or negative and caution should be used in determining your buy/sell/hold methodology. 'caution' is the position of the forecast before it moves to one of the other conditions of the market (positive or negative environment).  The Barometer is the tool you use to get a heads-up on the reversal of the market, when it comes.

 

The daily forecast indicates basically the same thing but is a precursor to the weekly forecast. That means, before the weekly forecast can change, the daily forecast will indicate the direction the forecast is leaning before its changed. 

 

Follow the Barometer and over time you will see how it gives you a heads-up on the market direction-change, when it comes. The problem today is uncertainty is driving the market and until some of the uncertainty is eliminated, we most likely will see a very sluggish market and forecast.

 

3/7/03 Friday- Not so good economical data, bad rumor, and divided UN lead the DOW and NASDAQ to lose 2 percent for the week.

4:31 PM ET- Got a sell-off this morning, but market ends the day positive. According to the Barometer models, continue consolidating, waiting on the next war deadline.

1:47 PM ET- With the Blix report completed and a U.N. Security Council divided over military action in Iraq, a new resolution being introduced will give Iraq until March 17, 2003 to totally disarm and comply.  

10:29 AM ET- Rumor circulating that two bin Laden sons were captured in Pakistan.

8:57 AM ET- Look for a strong negative open on not so good economical reports released earlier this morning and more worries over war. Could see a sell-off today.

 

 

3/6/03 Thursday- With weak economical data starting the day off on the wrong foot and the scheduling of a press conference for the President this evening, sent the market lower. It is believed the President will talk mainly about terrorism and the war on Iraq. Its probably safe to say we won't go to war tonight but the press will try and get a war timeline. Meanwhile, Intel will hold a mid-quarter update this afternoon with a widely expected favorable forecast. But an early look at Intel's meeting suggests they will lower guidance, something Intel normally stays away from.

Friday, all eyes will be on the Blix report to the Security Council. The report is expected to be similar to past reports with UN representatives taking sides as in past meetings.

3/5/03 Wednesday- Market ends positive. Still consolidating around the Barometer baseline. About the only bright spot is the anticipation of a positive Intel business update scheduled for after the close Thursday. Other than that not much to report, except the same old thing, war, and rumors of war.

 

3/4/03 Tuesday- Ever wish you had $10. for every time you heard the words "time running out"? How about the words "game over". Haven't heard those words much, but the game is about over. There can't be many more weeks left for Hussein. If I were the Iraqi leader I would get out of town- now- time is short.

The US economy appears to be stalling and may not expand until this uncertainty is eliminated. Oil prices will probably jump from the already hefty levels, in the very near future, and that is going to put more pressure on the fragile economical recovery. Add to that all the other problems facing us and you would have thought the market should have crashed by now. It could!

We could see a deepening and more volatile selling if Wednesday is a negative day.

3/3/03 Monday- ISM (Institute of Supply Management) report released earlier today did it again. If you'll recall, on December 2, 2002, the market began its pullback because of a bad ISM report. The market is focusing, at times, on the economical recovery, but even good news of top al-Qaida arrest can't keep the momentum going. The market began its retreat when the ISM report was released at 10:00 AM ET today.

The question whether a war with Iraq could hurt the economy could be better asked, will uncertainty of a war with Iraq hurt the economy. It would appear that corporations are not willing to make expansion planes until the question of war is answered. And the market isn't willing to step-up and buy stocks in company's that are not going to grow. Meanwhile, the market continues to consolidate around the Barometer baseline awaiting direction. Lets pray the direction is up not down.

3/1/03 Saturday- The Associated Press is reporting that Khalid Shaikh Mohammed was arrested in Pakistan along with several other suspected terrorists.

Khalid Shaikh Mohammed is said to be the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks in the US. The market is consolidating on low volume around the Barometer baseline looking for direction. This news should be positive enough to change the direction. The market should take this as very good news and if nothing changes between now and Monday the market should react positive to this development in the war on terrorism.

2/28/03 Friday- With continuing war talk and a deepening divide in the UN Security Council, the uncertainty over Iraq is still with us. Iraq doesn't have to terrorize anyone, all they need to do is keep the uncertainty going- that alone will hold back the market and the economy. The pattern of the market for the past several weeks has been to consolidate around the Barometer baseline. Any real bad new now could send the market much lower. Past performance by the market in these consolidation patterns have ended with a sell-off. There needs to be a resolution to the Iraq problem soon. Securing the North and South no-fly zones with ground troops to protect the oil fields would be a scenario that is believed the market could rally around. That at least would take some of the uncertainty out of the picture and box-in the bad guys.

About the network outage- Message from Microsoft, dated 2/28/03- An unusual hardware system error Friday morning resulted in a temporary loss of service for many of our bCentral Web Hosting customers. We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this service loss may have caused you.

Our teams immediately began taking the necessary steps to restore service. Within a few hours service had been restored for non-web site operations including DNS, Mail, and the bCentral Admin Center. As of 4:45 pm PST all bCentral Web Hosting services have been fully restored, and your service should once again be 100% functional. Email messages that were sent to you during this temporary outage were queued and our mail servers are currently processing the backlog. You may experience some delays in receiving these emails.

The bCentral team is highly focused on providing you with high quality service. Once again, we regret any inconvenience caused by this disruption.  Microsoft bCentral Web Hosting Team.

 

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2/27/03 Thursday- Market moves higher as one uncertainty is reduced a little. The terrorism alert was reduced today to Elevated from High. That's one down two to go, with N. Korea and Iraq as the other concerns. The US economical picture is improving and normally (without the tremendous uncertainty) the market would be in a very positive mood. So now what? Probably out of the other two remaining uncertainties, Iraq is the one most traders are concerned with. There needs to be closure or at least the hint of closure before the market can focus on what it should be focusing on- the economy and corporate profits. Discounting consumer sentiment data Friday, the market should be mostly positive, a carryover from today's positive environment.

 

2/26/03 Wednesday- Today's negative action puts the Barometer-plot at the bottom of the current consolidation point of the market. If Thursday turns out to be negative, the Barometer indicates further downside risk. Although rallies can occur from this position, it is unlikely, especially in the environment we find the market today.

That's the bad news. The good news is, markets that get overly-done tend to bounce back with nearly equal force. For a sustained rally to occur, the uncertainty must be taken out of the geopolitical environment and some very positive news must occur. When that happens the market will/should rebound and the rebound could be rather volatile. The Barometer leading indicator leads the Barometer by 2 to 4 days. The key is to keep track of the forecast and watch the home page for the eventual turnaround of the market- it will come.  

 

 

2/25/03 Tuesday- Morning Update- N. Korea firing-off  a rocket and Iraq continuing to defy numerous UN resolutions, and mixed economical news- traders thinking is- they are not being punished when they sell. Buyers, on the other hand, are punished when they buy. That's why most buyers are on the sidelines. According to the Barometer, today is the big day. If the day continues to be negative, we can expect further downside risk in the days to come, including a possible sell-off. If neutral or positive day, then we continue testing and consolidating around the baseline.

Afternoon update- Market ends with more than 1/2 percent gain. In early trade, the averages were down as much as 1 to 2 percent, but the market fought its way back to end with a gain.

 

 The Barometer indicates continued testing of the Barometer baseline in a consolidating manner as we have been experiencing for the past three weeks. Any move below the consolidation point would indicate a further fall of the market with a possible sell off (capitulation).  In a normal market (one without war and terrorism) a capitulation would be a good thing that normally leads to and end of the downside movement of the market. But in the environment we're in, a capitulation could become very dangerous if during the move down additional bad news spooks traders. More information on the forecast is available at the Market Memo.

 

 

2/24/03 Monday- No change in traders/investors thinking- its a lot easier to sell than to buy. Even 'shorting' at this point could be risky. That's why uncertainty is a traders enemy.

 

2/21/03 Friday- The market is at a crossroads, at the Barometer baseline, any sustained move in either direction normally will indicate the direction for the short-term. The midday rally only has put-off the test of the baseline, unless the market can stay positive for several days early next week. The Barometer indicates consolidation around support, this normally means further downside risk but in rare cases the market could rally from this position.

Traders and investors are so focused on potential war and terrorism that any negative news causes them to immediately take a secure or flat position. Only after details are released do they recover and continue with their directives (buy/sell based on fundamentals).

 

One thing is for sure. Until the market can put some distance between the Iraq situation, we can probably expect more of the same market action. Terrorism on the other hand will be something that will be with the market probably forever. The market will have to discount terrorism and react on rumors and news as it happens. Only until we get further down the terrorism-road without any U.S. terrorist attacks can the market begin to put this uncertainty aside.

 

 

2/20/03 Thursday- The market is at a point where it is testing the lower limit of the Barometer baseline for the third time. Any weakness Friday could be signaling further declines next week. Any bad news Friday could cause the averages to post a negative session and that would cause a failure to hold baseline support.

If Friday turns out to be a neutral day, then baseline support test would be postponed until Monday. If a rally ensues Friday, then several days of positive environment would be needed to penetrate the 11/27 trend line.

 

Extreme caution should be used Friday until a pattern develops. The Barometer forecast could change Friday depending how the day plays out.

 

 

2/19/03 Wednesday- Good economical news can't keep the market positive, investors and traders are 'parked' waiting to see what war news there is. With the abundant confusing news, no one is willing to take the first step. About the only good war news today is a rumor that Hussein is trying to find a country that will take him. If this pans out, it would be great news for Iraq and should be rally news for the stock market. But at this point its only a rumor released, reportedly, by a Kuwait news paper.

 

2/18/03 Tuesday- It appears from news releases that some European countries are backing off of their 'no war at any cost' hard-line. This could make it a little easer for the U.S. to attack Iraq if Iraq continually resists U.N. resolutions. The rally on low volume (Friday and today) should be considered, according to the Barometer, as possibly short covering or just 'wait and see' attitude amongst traders.

 

The Barometer chart indicates several more days of positive attitude before resistance can be broken. The Barometer weekly-forecast (top-right forecast symbol on each page) will maintain caution until the 'new trend line' has been broken or the Barometer leading-indicator indicates probable penetration of the trend-line.

 

2/14/03 Friday- Market reacts to U.N. depending on who was speaking at the time. The Blix- ElBaradei report didn't seem to be much different than the speeches of two weeks ago. Although Iraq seems to be complying somewhat, there doesn't seem to be a major breakthrough. This is a summary of the highlights.

Inspection teams are continuing to build capability.

All banned chemicals have not been disclosed.

Interviews with individual Iraqis is not moving along because of restrictions imposed by Iraq.

Over flight of Iraq by U2 and others is moving along.

Many proscribed weapons have not been disclosed.

Access for inspectors is not a problem, but substance is.

 

By the time the reports had been delivered, the DOW had a triple digit gain. All of that disappeared when the various countries began adding their commentary. The decline in the DOW was well underway when Syria complained that the U.N. could have a double standard when dealing with Iraq as opposed to Israel. By the time France, Chile, and China were done, the market had pretty much gave up all of  the advance. By the time the U.S. got its turn the market was pretty much flat.

 

Meanwhile, at a different location, President Bush began to speak on the matter and the market picket up and was sporting 40 plus points. Another meeting of the U.N. Security Council is being proposed for March 14, 2003 to again hear more about Iraq and how the inspection process is going.

 

2/13/03 Thursday- Market in neutral waiting on Friday's big UN event where the weapons inspector Blix and company will report on their findings. This could be the last report before military action overtakes Iraq. The Barometer News model had previously indicated a high likelihood of war as early as February 17, 2003. Although it is now unlikely that this would be a date that President Bush authorizes an all-out attack, military action in Iraq could pick up next week in preparation for war.

2/12/03 Wednesday- Positive day, not to be. There continues to be more bad news than good. No matter what TV station you turn to, news paper that you read, radio station that you listen to- all contain the same thing, war and terrorism talk. Terrorist, Iraq, and N. Korea don't have to attack the US- just kill the markets and the economy- and they win. 

2/11/03 Tuesday- New unverified bin Laden tape, possible mounting evidence of al-Qaida ties to Iraq,  and FBI/CIA officials give grim possibilities of terrorist attacks. All the real bad news of the day failed to take the market further south than it did. The market could have sold off today with all the bad news but didn't. The Barometer News model indicates a neutral day and points to a possible positive day Wednesday, barring additional bad news.

2/10/03 Monday- Market opened neutral to positive but began sliding as the morning wore on. About the time Iraq agreed to U2 flights over Iraq, the market began its climb back only to slid during afternoon trade- but at least stayed positive. The last hour of trade saw another climb to end the day well in positive territory.

2/9/03 Sunday- Two day meeting between UN inspectors and Iraq officials end with UN inspection team leader Blix indicating a much improved cooperation from Iraq. Germany and Russia reiterate that a peaceful solution should be persistently sought after. Analysts, for the most part, are saying this is nothing more than another stall tactic by Iraq.

On one hand you have the UN inspectors indicating they need more time to probe Iraq for the weapons banned by UN Resolution 1441. Then you have countries like Russia and Germany wanting to resolve this problem with more time and inspections. The US, and the coalition, see this as more smoke and mirrors and sees this is nothing more than empty promises.

What does the market want? The market has been telegraphing its desires by the volatility- the ups and downs through this time period. The market wants a conclusion to this now. Traders want to focus on earnings, profits and forecast, not terrorism. We truly do not know how traders will react to this Monday morning but if the past has been any indication, we can probably expect more negative market action on the same old thing- uncertainty.

2/7/03 Friday- Market ends the week in the dumps. Good economical data can only lift the market for a short period of time, then reality sets in. With war possibly less than weeks away and the nations terrorist threat level raised, its just to much for traders to handle.

President Bush raised the Homeland Security threat level to orange (high condition) today because of the increase in "specific intelligence received".  According to officials, al-Qaida terrorist network is determined to attack Americans here and abroad.

2/5/03 Wednesday- Secretary of State Colin Powell presented intelligence to the UN this morning that indicates that Iraq is continuing to develop and conceal weapons of mass destruction in violation of UN resolution 1441. He also presented evidence of links between Iraq and al-Qaida. Powell presented the evidence in the form of audio taped conversations, satellite images, and interviews to make the case against Iraq.

 

The market reacted mostly positive during and after the presentation but began a rally when some key allies supported the US position. It was around the time when non-supportive countries spoke asking the UN inspectors be given more time-  that the market began to retreat from the high of the day.

 

2/4/03 Tuesday- DOW, NASDAQ, and stocks end down. With war around the corner, buyers are not willing to commit until a war direction has been established. Powell will deliver intelligence that Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction and that Iraq is working to deceive UN inspectors. After the Powell report comes another UN report on the 14th. of February that will give an update on the progress of inspections. This most likely will be the last report the US will need before attacking Iraq. The Barometer 'News' model indicates a high probability that an attack will come as early as February 17.

 

2/3/03 Monday- The market is focused on Iraq and the possibility of going to war. Traders await the UN report from US Secretary of State Colin Powell. Powell will report to the Security Counsel with proof that Iraq is hiding banned weapons from United Nations inspectors in violation of UN resolutions.

 

Earlier this morning the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported growth in January. Its index came in at 53.9, showing the economy is expanding. Any figure above 50 indicates growth.

 

1/31/03 Friday- The Barometer News Model has indicated that an attack on Iraq by the U.S. led coalition is probable as early as February 17, 2003 if Iraq doesn't totally comply with U.N. resolutions. This means if Iraq doesn't put forth an acceptable effort by the week of February 9, 2003, Iraq will have committed themselves. The model measures the stock market reaction to news events and rumors, the timing of such events and has indicated, based on the language from the Bush-Blair news conference, that Iraq will have to comply, 100 percent, with specifically resolution 1441. The stock market (specifically the DOW and S&P 500) has begun to factor in an imminent attack.

1/30/03 Thursday- More war worries, bad economical news, and AOL posts huge loss. With war possibly just weeks away and not so good economical news there was nothing to inspire traders to buy. The market is purely moving on each piece of news that came out. If there is good news Friday it may keep the market neutral. If this happens the Barometer indicates a possible consolidation around the bear-market trend line. Any move further down could cause a break through the Baseline. That could indicate a much further move lower.

1/29/03 Wednesday- Market started out in negative territory but began recovering midmorning. President Bush today said "Iraq must disarm". Last night in the State of the Union speech he said "some crucial hours may lay ahead". He also said on February 5th. Secretary of State Powell will present information and intelligence to the U.N. Security Counsel. Meanwhile, the FOMC Federal Reserve meeting took place and it was decided to leave the interest rate alone. The Barometer shows a solid bounce off of the baseline and normally this means positive times-ahead. But these are not positive times, so the Barometer indicates caution for the week. Keeping in mind, the Barometer can change at any time.

1/28/03 Tuesday- Stocks rise on good economical data, corporate profits and State of the Union spin. With the positive day in the market, the Barometer plot indicates a bounce off of the baseline. This normally means a rally bounce but with the potential war with Iraq looming, the State of the Union will be very important to traders to get some of the uncertainty out of the way. A good State of the Union speech will mean a good market day Wednesday, if no major bad news enters into the picture.  

1/27/03 Monday- The stock market sold off today as war news dominated. The market needs a firm position from President Bush in order to take away some of the unknown. Hopefully, Tuesday's State of the Union speech can be the platform to spell out what the U.S. intends to do. Until firm action is taken, the market will not focus on other matters. Firm action doesn't have to be war but could be an extension of time that the U.S. intends to give the inspection process. The market then can go on to focus on the economy and corporate matters.

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