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12/30/03 Tuesday-

9:26 am ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

11:32 am ET- Market drops sharply on unexpected economical data this morning but has recovered to near unchanged. At 11:15 am ET, the averages are within .2 percent of unchanged. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate a positive environment.

11:55 am ET- An updated Market Memo indicates three market scenarios for January; Stock market environment continues to be mostly positive... Begin a pullback and retrace some of the gains from the latest advance of the market... Trade in a somewhat tight trading range...

12:15 pm ET- NASDAQ holds onto 2k, for now. Indices continue moving sideways after this mornings sharp decline on unexpected results from economical data. The averages continue flat, within .2 percent of unchanged.

2:19 pm ET- With little news to trade on, the averages sink slightly lower on thin trading. The indices are lower by .1 to .3 percent. The markets are expected to be slow through the remainder of today and into Wednesday.

4:30 pm ET- Indices snap back at the close to end the day nearly flat. No market-moving news and holiday spirit leads to a slow day for stocks. Jobless claims data released Wednesday morning should get traders attention. But beyond that another probable slow day leading into New Year's holiday and a closed market. 

5:56 pm ET- A little surge at the close helps the major averages to close near flat for the day. Not much change in the charts; the leading indicator shows market on track to continue the positive environment. The Barometer chart shows the plot (plots represent performance of the market) well into bear territory with a possible test of resistance to come. 

12/29/03 Monday-

9:21 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:10 am ET- Market opens positive and trends slightly off the highs at midmorning. The mad cow investigation is widening and terror concerns seem to be dissipating somewhat- bad news continues to be discounted. The Barometer continues to indicate a positive environment.

12:43 pm ET updated- With little news to drive stocks, there is and has been a positive tone as investors and traders see 2004 as a year that will continue the rally started in March. The good news is the economy most likely will continue to recover and corporate capital spending should fire-up. The bad news is it is widely expected that stocks are going to do well in 2004. The contrarian indicator sees this overwhelming optimism as a reason the market may not do as well as most expect in 2004- so what can you do about that? The Barometer forecast can detect changes in trading and is able to identify those news events that affect trading. Keep an eye on the Barometer, especially the leading indicator (LI), as the LI can foresee changes in the market environment 4 to 8 trade days before the market actually changes. The leading indicator, today, is at neutral which means it is at its "home" position waiting to trigger on the next change in the market.

2:55 pm ET- With a little over an hour to go, the popular averages continue trending higher. The NASDAQ leads the way with a better than 1 percent gain, DOW follows with better than .7 percent and the S&P posts 1/2 percent gain. Traders and investors continue bidding stocks higher in keeping of the overwhelming expectation of a positive inflow in January-  expectations for 2004 are positive- not many analysts suggesting 2004 to be a negative year. The market forecast for the near term continues to indicate positive.

4:30 pm ET- NASDAQ 2000. Tech stocks make a run at 2000 in last hour of trade, closing above 2006- nearly 1.7 percent gain for the day. DOW and S&P gain 1.2 percent. Advancing issues swamp decliners 2.7:1- nearly 3 to 1 broad based rally.

6:20 pm ET- Market continues to advance on 2004 outlook- kind of environment a bull would like to see every day. Activity could pick up Tuesday as Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, and existing home sales are up on deck for traders to mull. Beyond that, more economical data Wednesday and Thursday the markets are closed for New Year's- market to reopen Friday for a full session. The leading indicator shows strength of the market which could continue into January. |

The market forecast continues to indicate positive near-term environment.  

Weekend-

Saturday 11:53 am ET- Weekly summary: Monday- Santa Claus rally is on. Market continues to discount geopolitical news in favor of focusing on the economy and corporate earnings. The forecast was changed to positive from caution. "The models revealed the proper positive configuration for the market (DOW, S&P NASDAQ) going forward"... Tuesday- It was being widely reported Tuesday evening that the first case of mad cow disease was found in Washington State. In a flurry of reports, it was not clear the impact this news might have on the markets on Wednesday morning... Wednesday- Market ended the short session with negative results- mad cow uncertainty and mixed economical data sited. The DOW and S&P end down .4 percent. The NASDAQ ends lower by .3 percent... Thursday- U.S. markets were closed to observe Christmas. Friday- Major indexes climbed early in the morning and trended lower to close midpoint from the open and highs of the day. With no economical news but lots of mad cow reports, Santa Claus rally seems to be intact- giving way to the "January affect" and the hope that the positive environment continues.

12/28/03 Sunday 12:07 pm ET- Last week of the year will see another short trading week. Stock market scheduled for full sessions except Thursday, to honor New Year's day. Economical data to be released includes Chicago PMI, ISM PMI, consumer confidence, jobless initial claims, among others. The Barometer stock market forecast indicates positive.  

12/26/03 Friday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:12 am ET- Post Christmas market sees stocks higher but trending slightly off the highs of the morning. Advancing issues over declining issues by 1.6:1. No economic news this morning to drive the market as traders gear up for a short session- market will close at 1:00 pm ET. The market forecast continues to indicate a positive environment for stocks.

11:46 am ET- The major averages continue a sideways move just off the highs of the session on low volume. Reports are circulating that a second herd of cows have been isolated in Washington state- but no further information was available.

1:42 pm ET- Indices end Christmas week in the green on very low volume. Major indexes climb early and trend lower to close midpoint from the open and highs of the day. With no economical news but lots of mad cow reports, Santa Claus rally seems to be intact- giving way to the "January affect" and the hope that the positive environment continues.

3:05 pm ET- Markets close early to end the holiday week and move into the end of year where we will see another short week of trading. The Barometer chart is ready- neutral market day shows no significant change. The leading indicator chart- still shows above resistance but beginning to trend down. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate positive going into the last week of 2003.  

12/24/03 Wednesday-

9:23 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start (slight chance of a mixed open) to the short trade day- market will close 1:00 pm ET.

10:48 am ET- For the week ending 12/20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 353,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's figure of 354,000. The 4-week moving average is 361,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's average of 362,000.

11:18 am ET- Market starts out with selling on mad cow uncertainty and a mixed picture on the  economical front. Indices are improving- well off the lows and trending to the unchanged line. The market forecast indicates positive with a positive bias.

1:00 pm ET- Market closed...

3:16 pm ET- Market ends the short session with negative results- mad cow uncertainty and mixed economical data sited. The DOW and S&P end down .4 percent. The NASDAQ ends lower by .3 percent.

4:25 pm ET- U.S. markets will be closed Thursday to observe Christmas. Stock market will reopen at 9:30 am ET Friday for a half day session.  

12/23/03 Tuesday-

9:25 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-mixed open.

10:33 am ET- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the output of goods and services, increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, according to revised estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today.

10:40 am ET- "As expected" economical data released this morning has traders and investors continuing to bid stocks higher. The last full day of trading this week sees the DOW positive by .2 percent, NASDAQ up by .6 percent, and the S&P near flat. The Barometer market forecast, changed last evening, now indicates a positive environment with a positive bias.

12:16 pm ET- The DOW and S&P weaken, nearly unchanged, as the trading day enters lunchtime- NASDAQ trends sideways while holding a .5 percent gain. The market forecast, changed yesterday evening, now indicates a generally positive market environment going forward.

2:29 pm ET- The indices continue to trend off the highs of the day. The DOW is off by 26, the S&P nearly unchanged, and the NASDAQ posts +7. Wednesday, short trade day, sees jobless initial claims and new home sales- could give traders some motivation. Unless there are some unexpected developments, should be a very slow half-session.

4:30 pm ET- Market averages end positive on low volume. DOW flat for the day, S&P ends .3 percent up, and the out performer NASDAQ ends with 1 percent gain.

10:26 pm ET- It is being widely reported this evening that the first case of mad cow disease was found in Washington State. In a flurry of reports, it was not clear the impact this news might have on the markets come Wednesday morning. Some sectors and commodities might be hit harder than others at the markets open- caution should be used until additional facts are obtained from reporting sources. 

12/22/03 Monday-

9:24 am ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Not much reaction to the terror alert expected.

10:19 am ET- Indices open down but make comeback to near unchanged, although the S&P is slightly negative. A mute response by traders on the terror alert as was the response in the overseas markets earlier. The market forecast continues to show caution with a positive bias.

4:30 pm ET- Market focuses on the economy and corporate recovery but ignores all other news, albeit on low volume. The DOW ends up .6 percent- 19-month high, S&P up .4 percent, and the NASDAQ up .3 percent.

6:15 pm ET- Santa Claus rally is on. Market continues to discount geopolitical news in favor of focusing on the economy and corporate earnings. Well into bear territory, it appears another resistance level is taken out. The market close models run at 9:30 to determine any changes to the forecast. Results should be posted by 10:30-11:00 pm timeframe. Until then, the forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

11:48 pm ET- Forecast alert: the forecast has changed to positive from caution. "The models reveal the proper positive configuration for the market (DOW, S&P NASDAQ) going forward"... 

Weekend-  

12/20/03 Saturday 9:56 AM ET- With yesterdays neutral action, the Barometer charts didn't change that much. The Barometer chart shows plot still above resistance, the leading indicator shows a favorable market environment-

models indicate that the negative boundary is not positioned properly for a forecast change.  Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a favorable bias.

12/20/03 Saturday 12:14 PM ET- Summary of the indices sees the DOW gaining 2.4 percent, the S&P gained 1.4 percent, and the NASDAQ lagged with a .1 percent gain this week. Appears money comes out of tech stocks into the DOW and S&P- rotation. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias- the bias was last changed on Friday 12/12. The models back on 12/12 identified this week as capable of gains but had insufficient positive data to upgrade the general forecast.

12/21/03 Sunday 12:18 pm ET- The U.S. market will be closed Thursday  12/25, with early closings (1:00 pm ET) on Wednesday and Friday in honor of Christmas.

12/21/03 Sunday 2:35 pm ET- The U.S. Government today raised the national threat level from an Elevated to High risk of terrorist attack - or from code Yellow to code Orange, as announced by Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge.

12/21/03 Sunday 3:51 pm ET corrected- With the short week ahead, the investing community will be diverted somewhat from the norm to celebrate the holidays while keeping an eye on several important economical data releases. GDP, sentiment, jobless claims are among the data to be released that will indicate how the economical recovery is progressing. Initial market reaction to the heighten terror alert is unknown at this time. Overseas markets, later this evening, will give us a clue to how the U.S. markets may react come Monday morning. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.  

12/19/03 Friday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

10:42 AM ET- Stocks get off to a positive start but since have trended back towards unchanged- the DOW is outperforming by .3 percent. With the lack of economical data and earnings reports, we could see a lackluster day with the indices moving sideways. Today is quadruple witching which could add a little volatility, but none is expected.

12:35 PM ET- No news, no move. Averages are expected to move sideways until the last couple of hours of trade today, when buyers and sellers pickup momentum sending the indices up or down depending on the bidding. It is expected to be orderly, but could spike a little as there should continue to be low volume. At 12:20 Eastern, the DOW and S&P are within .2 percent of unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down by 1/2 percent. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive Barometer bias.

1:08 PM ET- Yesterday evening the market models ran, like they normally do each trade day, to determine any changes to the forecast. No changes were identified- the biggest data point was the Barometer-plot being just above resistance and the fact that the negative boundary was not configured properly for a change in the forecast. It was decided to leave the forecast as is pending more data (today's market).

The market forecast continues to indicate caution but with a positive bias.

2:55 PM ET- Not much change over the past couple of hours. DOW had gone (barely) into positive territory and the S&P and NASDAQ continue just below flat. All holding close to unchanged all day. Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:37 PM ET- Indices end mixed with the DOW up by .3 percent and the NASDAQ down by .3 percent- appears rotation of money flow out of tech stocks has been occurring of late. S&P ended flat. The market forecast, unchanged last evening, continues to indicate caution.

6:15 PM ET- With today's neutral market, not much in the way of change in the charts. The Barometer chart shows still above resistance, the leading indicator shows a favorable market environment- but the models indicate that the negative boundary is not positioned properly for a forecast change. Evening models (last run of the evening is at 9:30 PM ET) still have to run but no change is expected. Market forecast continues to indicate caution with a favorable bias.  

12/18/03 Thursday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral- probably positive start to the open of trading this morning.

10:46 AM ET- Stocks are tacking on gains after a better than expected jobless report. For the week ending Dec. 13, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 353,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's figure. The four-week moving average was 361,750- well under the 400,000 benchmark figure. This report along with no inflation equals a positive environment for stocks. The DOW up by .6 percent, S&P better by .8 percent, and the NASDAQ positive by 1.2 percent. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:13 PM ET- Continued good news; economical data, stock upgrades, the prospect that 2004 will be a continuation of this year, and the positive turn in yesterdays market, has traders biding stocks higher in today's session. If the market can stay positive, the Barometer models indicate a forecast change later this evening- could see another positive move by the leading indicator and a forecast change. The DOW and S&P are better by .6 percent and the NASDAQ is up 1.1 percent.

12:54 PM ET- The Barometer leading indicator (LI) is a Barometer model that predicts changes in the market. The LI has already alerted to this latest upturn in the market and has since been reset back to neutral. This allows the LI to continue tracking and predict the next market change. If today continues positive, the LI models could trigger another alert- another positive alert. This means that the LI would have identified a more bullish upturn in the market- within 4 to 8 trade days from now. We will have to see how all this plays out today, but if today's market holds as strong as it is, we could see a market like today well into January. But in the meantime, the market forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

3:05 PM ET- With an hour to go, the major indexes continue the climb upward sporting better than 1 percent gain, with the NASDAQ outperforming. Advancing issues have the advantage over declining issues by better than 2:1. The models continue to look very good for a forecast change later this evening. The last model run is at 9:30 PM, Eastern. Any forecast change will be posted after that time, but well prior to Fridays open.

4:36 PM ET- Market firing on all cylinders- environment fortified by good economical and geopolitical news that has traders and investors swarming. The DOW ends up 1 percent, S&P up by 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ outperforms and ends up by 1.8 percent. All end near the highs of the session.

6:27 PM ET- Is this topping-out action, or is the stock market going to continue the rally? The model run this evening should provide more details than we have at this juncture.

11:50 PM ET- The models have completed without a conclusive indication of a change. The data indicates that the Barometer negative-boundary is not positioned properly to signal a firm positive market, therefore, the forecast stays at caution. A cautionary forecast indicates that the market can be negative or positive, influenced by the bias, which currently indicates positive. The bottom line- the market is still subject to further negative sessions and since the Barometer-plot is just above resistance, further testing of this resistance could occur Friday- and it could fail the test- thus the forecast of caution. 

12/17/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

10:45 AM ET- Market settles in with moderate loss. Good earnings report from brokerages keeps market near neutral, just under the unchanged line. SARS resurfaces and has a mild affect. The DOW and S&P down by .2 percent and the NASDAQ shows 1/2 percent loss. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

11:17 AM ET- Indices continue to improve with little news to inspire traders, one way or the other. Thursday, traders will get another look at jobless initial claims- could move traders if data comes in better than expected. Also on tap for Thursday is the Leading Indicator and the Philadelphia Fed report. The Barometer models are on trend watch- looking for a signal that the market is "firming" in one direction or the other. The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias. A cautionary forecast, in Barometer terms, means the market can trend positive or negative- but stocks selectively are in an environment that can advance.

12:39 PM ET- Indices sag, as buyers must be out to lunch. The popular average were trending upward towards unchanged but lunchtime interrupted the buying. Sometimes what happens during the noon hour gets reversed later in the session- lets hope that happens today. Even if it doesn't, the losses today, so far, are very minimal compared to the advances we have had lately. This market exhibits the 10-steps forward, 2-steps back- typical of a market that wants to move higher.

2:22 PM ET- Major indexes continue to move sideways just short of flat in slow trade. DOW and S&P lower by .1 percent while the NASDAQ is off by 1/2 percent.

3:17 PM ET- Inside an hour to go and NASDAQ trends off, spotting 1/2 percent loss. The other indices continue to hold near flat. Gold sees gains of $4- do you wish you had some! Forecast stuck at caution, bias stuck waiting for a firm trend to develop- none as of yet.

4:29 PM ET- A little spurt at the close helps the major averages to close up for the DOW and S&P, but NASDAQ continued underwater. DOW ends up .2 percent, S&P up .1 percent, and the NASDAQ ends the day down .2 percent.

6:07 PM ET- After the close Barometer models have run and the initial indication is, no change to the forecast. Since the bias is currently positive, the next logical step would be the forecast to turn positive- Thursday could be a market mover, as jobless claims are on deck for an early call. For now the forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. 

12/16/03 Tuesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

11:38 AM ET- Averages continue mixed performance on good economical data- appears the Fed could stay on hold [rate hike] for an extended period of time. CPI data suggests that inflation may not be a concern, for the FOMC, for some time to come. The DOW posts a gain of .6 percent, the NASDAQ down .7 percent, and the S&P is near unchanged. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

3:12 PM ET- NASDAQ finally turns positive to rejoin the pack. DOW good by .9 percent, S&P .6 percent gain, and the NASDAQ spots a .1 percent gain, as the market turns for the home stretch.

4:44 PM ET- Most stocks do well- tech lags. Good economical data and positive news from Iraq, creates a better mood as some stocks recover yesterdays loss. Traders look forward to Thursdays jobless data- to maybe keep this positive environment in place. The DOW ended better than 1 percent, S&P by .7, and the NASDAQ by .3 percent. 

12/15/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a strong open.

12:25 PM ET- At midday, the indices hang-on to some of the gains attributed to the capture of Hussein. With little other market moving news, indices could meander with a positive end today in anticipation of CPI and housing data to be released Tuesday. DOW up .7 percent, S&P positive by .4 percent , and the NASDAQ up by .4 percent- well off the high of the morning The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.

3:19 PM ET- Major market indexes fail to keep rally gains and trend lower, S&P and DOW near unchanged, NASDAQ off by .6 percent. Could be a slow week as little economical data left to discover- about the only data traders will key on is jobless initial claims scheduled to report on Thursday. As we get closer to the end of the week, there will be more focus on Christmas week. Forecast indicates caution with a positive bias.

4:40 PM ET- Rally dies as the DOW eases to near flat, .2 percent loss. S&P down .6 percent and the NASDAQ gets hammered with a 1.6 percent loss.

6:15 PM ET- Today's negative performance sees another failed attempt to cross resistance. A closer look at the leading indicator shows 5 attempts to get through the new resistance line that's well into bear territory- the good news is the market could still make another run at resistance before the holidays sets in. Traders Tuesday will refocus on the economy and if good data, we could see a positive day. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. 

Weekend-

12/13/03 Saturday 12:55 PM ET- Fed week ends with bullishness as the DOW secures 10,000. Large capitalization stocks (DOW) close the week with 1.8 percent gain, S&P gains 1.1 percent, and the NASDAQ ends with .6 percent gain, as tech stocks under perform. Monday started out positive but somewhat weak and saw the bias change from positive to neutral. The focus was the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and kept traders on hold. On Tuesday the Fed keeps the Fed funds rate at 1 percent and says "policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period". With that said, the market ended with a loss. Wednesdays are good days for turnarounds and the thought was that traders would react to the Fed that day. The market saw sideways movement until the last 40 minutes and the turnaround began with the averages making a run at the unchanged line. Thursday continued the bullish attitude and traders continued the advance all day and ended the rally that day with sizable gains. Friday saw much of the same- a positive day as trader and investor bid stock higher. Late Friday evening the bias was changed to positive from neutral- as a firm trend, started on Wednesday, developed and lead the models to indicate a more positive environment going forward- watch for a forecast change next week.

12/14/03 Sunday 11:04 AM ET- US forces apprehend former President Saddam Hussein south of his birth city of Tikrit Iraq. The US stock market likely to rally Monday morning as this news has been long anticipated. The rally would be in response of the good news and that this should bring greater stability to the region. Should have a clue to how big of a rally by later tonight when overseas markets open.

12/14/03 Sunday 12:15 PM ET- After the initial reaction to the capture of Hussein, the market will try and focus on little economical data- CPI, Philadelphia Fed report, and initial claims are among the data to be released this week that could have a small impact on trading. Thursday and Friday the focus will begin to switch to Christmas week.

12/14/03 Sunday 10:44 PM ET- Early review of overseas markets and Futures indicate a strong open for the U.S. stock market Monday morning. Most markets have responded positive to the news of the capture of Saddam Hussein which most likely will carry over to the U.S. open. The Barometer indicates caution with a positive bias.   

12/12/03 Friday-

9:17 AM ET- Looks like a neutral-to-positive open on unexpected fall in PPI.

10:39 AM ET- Two economical data points fall this morning; PPI fell unexpectedly- traders like this because it tends to put the Fed on hold from raising rates, sentiment report fell- traders hold biding stocks up until the report can be analyzed causing the indices to core dump. After the market settles down we may see a pickup on buyers activity. At 10:25 ET the indices are trending back to unchanged. Yesterday evening the leading indicator was changed to neutral from positive in a normal move by the models. The indicator always is reset to its "home" position after an event. The forecast now reads caution with a neutral bias.

3:05 PM ET- Averages continue to be choppy as they are virtually unchanged- with low volume, advancing issues slightly outpace decliners by 1.2:1. With an hour to go, no reason for traders to make much of change ahead of the weekend. The Barometer forecast indicates caution.

4:40 PM ET- Choppy trading ended mid-afternoon as buyers step in and move stocks higher. The averages close Friday with a .3 percent gain. Models are running and from preliminary data, looks like the bias will change later this afternoon.

5:39 PM ET- DOW closes above 10K second time as the broader market advances. All the major indices close with a .3 percent gain. With today's positive advance comes another test of bear strength on tap for Monday. Chart shows a third attempt at breaking through new resistance. The last model run for the day is scheduled for 9:30- that is the model run that determines forecast changes. Results will be available later this evening.

10:40 PM ET- The evening models have run and indicate a bias change. "On Wednesday, at about 3:00 PM ET, the averages dipped and began the advance with a rally Thursday that saw the DOW break and close above 10,000. On Friday, the averages dipped slightly on a negative sentiment report but continued the firm trend to close with a positive gain. The broader market advanced as well"...  

12/11/03 Thursday-

9:21 AM ET- Look for a neutral- mixed open on mixed economical data released this morning.

11:25 AM ET- There's good news and bad news- Americans are still being terminated from their jobs- initial jobless claims are up again, worse than expected by analysts. The good news,  traders see that as data that the Fed might use to hold off on the Fed funds rate hike a little bit longer. There is little doubt that the economical recovery is picking up steam, that along with corporate America gearing-up, equals a robust economy. But not to robust- the Fed will put the breaks on at some point- traders want that point to be later not sooner. The market is responding well today with the averages between .6 and 1.2 percent higher this morning. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The leading indicator continues to indicate a higher market.

3:10 PM ET- DOW hits 10,000 again, and again, and again. Will it close above 10K? Does it matter? It probably does for the day or the week but past that it probably has no technical value. What has merit is if the volume picks up and the market has several back-to-back days of positive moves. Portfolio managers will position for the new year- dumping some stuff and buying others. We will see if traders are willing to bid higher or not. The Barometer bias, stuck at neutral, may get upgraded if the models can determine a firm trend- a lasting firm trend. Meantime, the forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

4:40 PM ET- DOW takes 10K. First close above since May '02. Question is- can it close above 10K Friday? S&P gains 1.2 percent while the NASDAQ posts 2 percent gain.

6:34 PM ET- To keep the momentum of today going, will require more good super data- PPI and sentiment on deck. The leading indicator shows that more positive days are required in order to keep this 10K rally going. Fridays tone will be important.

11:14 PM ET- The leading indicator (LI) was changed this evening to neutral from positive. The change to neutral is normal when the LI has performed its job. "The leading indicator leads the forecast and the market normally by 4 to 8 trade days. Today (12/11/03) is the eighth trade day and the ensuing rally today satisfies the indicator. Once the indicator "runs its course" it is reset to neutral so that it can be triggered again if there is another leading indicator event. Neutral is the "home" position when the leading indicator is waiting to alert or trigger".  

12/10/03 Wednesday-

9:15 AM ET- Look for a neutral open- chance of being positive.

10:53 AM ET- Market gets off to a slightly good start but settles back at unchanged. No news, keeps the averages near home, at 10:45 ET, the DOW is up 15, NASDAQ up 2, and S&P unchanged. The forecast indicates caution.

2:42 PM ET- With under two hours to go, the averages continue moving sideways, within .1 percent of unchanged. Thursday will see some news- retail sales, initial jobless claims, inventories, and the FOMC minutes from the previous session will be released.

4:39 PM ET- The indices struggle all day but make a run to end near unchanged. Last 40 minutes of trading saw a small reversal that could carryover to Thursday. All three indices end slightly off but within .2 percent of the flat line.

6:10 PM ET- Stocks are struggling to find direction- lots of economical data to mull tomorrow and Friday. Models run tonight to see if any changes are needed. Meanwhile, the forecast is caution with a neutral bias.  

12/9/03 Tuesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral- slightly positive start as the wait begins for the Fed.

10:55 AM ET- DOW hits 10,000 and minutes later retreats to trend lower to unchanged. S&P and NASDAQ near flat as well. Stocks probably will stay near unchanged until this afternoons Fed statement on their view of the economy and any hints they may give on interest rate hike. The Forecast for the indices is caution with a neutral bias.

11:51 AM ET- Approaching noon, the DOW and S&P continue to hold close to unchanged- NASDAQ off by .8 percent. Declining issues out in front of advancing issues by nearly 2 to 1. At about 2:15 PM ET, the FOMC will announce that the rate, now 1 percent, will be left unchanged. The accompanying statement on rate hike is what traders are waiting on. The Barometer indicates caution.

2:55 PM ET- FOMC leaves Fed funds rate at 1 percent and says "with inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period." Market reaction was initially a small upward spike in the averages but since have declined with the DOW off slightly, S&P off .6 percent, and the NASDAQ off 1.4 percent.

4:35 PM ET- Post FOMC sees the NASDAQ hit with a 2 percent loss, as the DOW lost 1/2 percent, S&P off by nearly 1 percent. Buyers don't bid stocks higher- this afternoon was a sellers market. Reaction to the Fed could come in Wednesdays trade, as buyers this afternoon could have been strategizing. Wednesdays are good days for turnarounds. The Barometer indicate caution with a neutral bias. 

12/8/03 Monday-

9:19 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative start to the week.

10:57 AM ET- Indices trend up as does the majority of stocks. All eyes are on the Fed meeting Tuesday to see what they will say about interest rates- no change in rates expected, but traders want to know Fed thinking and try and glean when the Fed will begin the hike process. Thinking is no earlier than mid-2004. Most expect the Federal Reserve to say nothing about rates but maybe to try and determine their bias on the matter. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:55 PM ET- Market at midday is mixed- DOW holding an advance, the NASDAQ loosing an early gain and the S&P moves to unchanged. A vacuum of news leaves trading meandering as everyone awaits the Fed meeting Tuesday. Advancing and declining issues are nearly dead even.

4:23 PM ET- Traders put life back into the indices, as the last 11/2 hours of trading is securing higher positions- now the wait begins for the Fed meeting in the morning. The major indexes close Monday .5 to 1 percent higher.

5:02 PM ET- At midday, the models indicated no identifiable Barometer firm trend for the past couple of days. In keeping with Barometer methodology, it was determined to downgrade the bias to neutral from positive.

7:37 PM ET- Depending on how the Federal Reserve statement is interpreted by the investing community, could very well decide how the market ends up Tuesday. If the Fed takes, or is interpreted as taking, no bias position on interest rates, the market could sell off. It will be extremely important how the fed conveys its view of the economical recovery. The market is at high values, possibly overvalued, and not able to make further advances, and if this bull-market-to-be is to continue advancing and break through resistance, there will have to be a sign from the Fed that interest rate hike process is not something they will entertain for an extended period of time (very late 2004 or even 2005). The averages are critically positioned, and according to the leading indicator, it would not take much to begin a sell-off, on the magnitude that could take the market and stocks back to the long running Barometer channel. Tuesday's market could decide the direction for months to come. The forecast indicates caution with a neutral bias.  

Weekend-

12/6/03 Saturday 2:37 PM ET- The week started out positive; momentum from Thanksgiving week and good retail sales from 'black Friday' and the weekend, carried over to the new week. The rally kicked into high gear when better than expected ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing report indicated U.S. factories continuing to expanded . Tuesday started out with a Barometer forecast change to caution- the models sited a firm positive trend was in place. As the day ended it was clear after such a positive start to the week that profit takers would take some money of the board- indices not hurt at all, ended near flat. Wednesday saw a good start as the NASDAQ hit the magic 2,000 watermark. It was like hitting a brick wall, it immediately turned down ending the day with a 1 percent loss- it took the broader market down as well but the DOW managed to hold on to some gains. Thursday saw disappointing jobless data, only traders ignored the report and sent the indices to near 1/2 percent gain for the day. After Thursdays close, Intel reported it would take a large 4th. quarter charge and the stock got hammered in after hours. That set the stage for Friday. Friday never saw the light of day- with the negative Intel report and less than expected payroll data, traders wouldn't bid stocks up in front of the weekend and the FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday. The stock market ended on a mixed note- DOW closed with a .8 percent gain, S&P .4 percent gain but the NASDAQ ended with over a 1 percent loss on the week. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12/7/03 Sunday 12:48 PM ET- FOMC week gets underway with hopes from traders, and the like, that any statements from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday will be supportive to keeping rates unchanged till at least the last half of 2004. The major indices are at a critical point and with the run-up of stocks since March, any statements or bad news could, and most likely, be responded to with a sell off. whether stocks are overvalued or not, the perception is they are, and anything that comes along to halt the fledgling bull-market could cause months of declining prices- least path of resistance is lower not higher. At some point the what-was-once good economical news will become the news to sell on. If the economical recovery is seen to be expanding rapidly and job creation data begins to show a better than expected job creation, that could open the rate-hike door for the Fed and the opportunity to reverse rate-hike bias to tightening rather than a neutral stance. The minutes of last months FOMC meeting will be released later in the week that could shed more light on Fed bias. The Barometer forecast starts the week at caution with a positive bias- although the bias could change Monday.    

12/5/03 Friday-

9:19 AM ET- Stocks are set to open lower on yesterdays Intel report and payroll data released this morning.

11:01 AM ET- Employment picture gets a little bit better; unemployment rate hits 5.9 percent (down from 6.0 percent), nonfarm payroll employment rose 57,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Analysts had expected better data. That [jobs added] coupled with the negative Intel report, cause traders to take some profits. The DOW and S&P are off by .3 percent- hardest hit is the NASDAQ, off by .8 percent. Declining issues swamp advancing issues- small and mid size growth are hardest hit this morning. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

2:30 PM ET- Profit taking continues. Buyers not coming back into the market yet- The economic recovery is still on track... a weak jobs report this morning is a passing event while traders fine-tune positions. Actually, the weak jobs report might give the Fed hesitation in the rate hike process- that's good news. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week, this will be an important event for the market- what the Fed says and how they interpret the recovery will have direct influence on policy.

4:40 PM ET- Jobs data, the focus today- FOMC meeting next week, will be the new focus. Feeling continues to be market fundamentals still good- today though, buyers take a wait and see. It will be important for the Fed to take a positive stance next week as traders are becoming more concerned with the rate hike process next year. Today the DOW and S&P were down by .7 percent and the NASDAQ off by 1.6 percent.   

6:19 PM ET- The bad news- today was a negative day in the stock market. The good news- market environment for stocks continues to look ok (still in bear territory). Traders and investors will focus on the Fed meeting coming up next week, and most likely will react to any comments that comes out of the FOMC. Even though the environment looks ok, if the Fed were to say something traders don't like, we could see selling midweek. And it won't take many sequential down days to get this highly valued market in trouble- lets hope the Fed and the stock market are on the same page. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive Barometer bias.

12/4/03 Thursday-

9:26 AM ET- Look for a neutral- possibly mixed open.

10:56 AM ET- Indices waffle at the open but since have trended positive on not-so-good jobless data. At 10:45 ET, S&P and NASDAQ gain .3 percent and the DOW is up .4 percent.

Jobless claims, released by the Labor Department, show an increase of 11,000 new claims. 4-week moving average is 362,500. The major-indexes forecast continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.

12:46 PM ET- Averages take time off during lunch- well off the highs but still positive- the indexes post nearly .5 percent gain, as the NASDAQ lags with a .2 percent gain- the broader market sees declining issues leading advancing issues, slightly.

2:45 PM ET- With a little over an hour to go, the popular averages have declined to near flat for the DOW and S&P. NASDAQ suffering with a .7 percent loss, as declining issues beat out advancing issues nearly 2:1. At 1:00 PM ET, the DOW and S&P began a free fall on no apparent news. Gold futures (February) close today at $404.20...

4:35 PM ET- A nice double bottom mid-afternoon spawns a comeback for the indices. Just before 2:00 ET, all three major indices made a double bottom and shot up to close at the highs of the day (still settling). Unless there is some bad news out there, Friday should be a good day. The indices close with gains of .4, .5, .6 percent for the NASDAQ, S&P, and DOW, respectively.

6:30 PM ET- Should be an interesting Friday, as Intel says it raised the lower end of its revenue projection but says it's going to take a large charge on the 4th. quarter- Intel was down in after hours trade. The jobs data is scheduled out Friday that traders most likely will trade on. So good news bad news- which will when out? Positive momentum going into Friday might over power Intel news. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a positive bias.    

12/3/03 Wednesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a positive start.

11:51 AM ET- Stocks get a bounce early today as the economical picture continues to look bright.  A strong productivity report released early this morning advanced stocks at the open, only to see some of the gains of the morning disappear when the ISM services number was released. After digesting the ISM data, traders once again continued buying. At 11:30 ET, the DOW had reacquired the upward trend and is positive by .7 percent, the S&P up by .5, and the NASDAQ up by .7 percent. The market forecast , last changed on Monday, continues to indicate caution with a positive bias. Economical reports released this morning; productivity growth rate increase to 9.4 percent- beating expectations (best level since the 80's), and the ISM non-manufacturing services report of 60.1 percent- less than expected for the sector.

2:51 PM ET- NASDAQ hits 2000 but backs down to hang just below the watermark. With a little over an hour to go, the major indices are trending away from the highs of the day. Thursdays economical data might inspire traders to carry NASDAQ over the threshold, if the data is better than expected. The DOW is well within striking range of 10,000 and a power rally above these two psychological levels could give the bear community a wakeup call. At 2:42 NASDAQ and S&P are up .6 percent, while the DOW is better by .7 percent.

4:35 PM ET- Indices go their separate ways- NASDAQ dies- DOW retains some of the days gains. NASDAQ travels 2 percent today- at its best level, it got to 2000 (1 percent gain) and closes at the worst level (-1 percent loss). S&P didn't do any better- it was off .2 percent. No news noted, just profit taking on hitting new highs.

6:15 PM ET- With today's poor performance, but on low volume, the charts show little movement. The Barometer continues to indicate a stern performance by the bull community- but when bulls try to advance, sellers come in and take profits. It may be unlikely with such low volume to get past the levels [resistance levels] the indices are currently at. Until some real good or bad news comes along, we could be stuck in this trading range. The leading indicator had detected a positive change which normally means in 4 to 8 trade days the market should continue advancing- that would be between this Friday and next Thursday that the indices should continue advancing- according to Barometer methodology. The leading indicator was changed on December 1 but if you will remember it was identified as an 'atypical' crossing, not the normal crossing. Atypical crossings are not as reliable. But as long as the leading-indicator indicates positive, it means that the indices should continue advancing- of course there is resistance to overcome. In the way of the DOW and NASDAQ advancing (bear-bull resistance and support levels), is DOW 10,000 and NASDAQ 2,000. Next couple of days will be important in determining market direction.  

12/2/03 Tuesday-

12:42 AM ET- Forecast alert: The last model of the day [Monday] has run and the results are that of a forecast change. The tone of Monday's market was set by the positive days leading up to Thanksgiving and with the added boost of an exceptional manufacturing report, a rally ensued... The forecast was changed from a negative to that of caution with a positive bias.

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:56 AM ET- Indices are in negative territory this morning after Monday's manufacturing rally. Stocks are mixed with advancing issues slightly beating out decliners, ratio is nearly 1:1. The Barometer forecast was changed last night to caution from negative. "The forecast model ran last night and the data reflects a firm positive trend". The forecast now indicates caution with a positive bias. 

2:49 PM ET- With slightly better than an hour to go, the major indexes are trending negative, with the DOW loosing .5 percent, S&P and NASDAQ both underwater by .3 percent. The major indexes forecast, changed last night, now indicate caution with a positive bias.

4:37 PM ET- Profit takers take indices slightly down, take the broader market near even- ratio 1:1. The DOW and NASDAQ ended off .5 percent, while the S&P did better with a slight loss of .3 percent. The market forecast, changed yesterday, indicates caution with a positive bias.

6:05 PM ET- Market takes 10 steps forward and then 2 steps back [today]. The kind of environment a bull would like to see every day. Activity could pick up Wednesday as productivity and the ISM service report are scheduled for early morning release. Beyond that, Thursday and Friday, more fresh economical data that could get traders attention- namely; jobless data, payroll, unemployment, and others. The forecast indicates caution with a positive bias-the leading indicator also indicates positive- could continue further into bear territory.

12/1/03 Monday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive start.

11:14 AM ET- Stocks get off to a positive start, helped by a better than expected ISM manufacturing report- the PMI at 62.8 percent as reported by the Institute for Supply Management- any number above 50 percent indicates manufacturing expanding. At 11:04, the S&P is up by .7 percent, DOW by .8 percent, and the NASDAQ up by 1 percent, all just off the highs of the morning.

2:29 PM ET- Stocks continue to rise with small capitalization stocks leading the way. At 2:21, with little under two hours left of the trading day, the indices continue in positive territory on a better than expected manufacturing report. The major indexes are posting around 1/2 percent gain- off the highs of the session.

4:32 PM ET- DOW and S&P close Monday just off the highs of the day- NASDAQ closes at the high (market still settling). Great ISM PMI data advances the market with the DOW posting 116 point gain. The S&P gained nearly 12, and the NASDAQ gained 29 1/2. The Barometer bias was changed to positive near the close today because the models indicated  a firm positive trend to be in place.

5:35 PM ET- The site has been experiencing intermittent outages. It appears that some ISP's are affected- but not necessarily all. The problem appears to have stabilized- We regret any inconvenience.   

6:00 PM ET- Good economical data, great start for retail sales, has buyers in the mood. The models will run later this evening to determine any forecast changes. The bias was changed today as the daytime models detected a firm trend. The charts show that the bull attack on bear territory is still intact. The leading indicator shows the Barometer-plot penetrating the neutral zone of the positive and negative boundaries- a positive sign. We should have a forecast determination later this evening.

10:47 PM ET- The leading indicator model run is complete and the data indicates a change in the leading indicator. "This change means there is a more positive attitude by traders, willing to continue driving stocks higher. Barring any unforeseen economical or geopolitical news, the market should be a favorable environment for stocks.".

Weekend-

11/29/03 Saturday 1:23 PM ET- The major indices did well for a 31/2 days of trading. The DOW gained 1.6 percent, S&P 2.2, and the NASDAQ gained 3.5 percent- as it [NASDAQ] continues to outperform its counterparts. The Barometer forecast, last changed on November 18, continues to indicate negative with a cautionary bias. This means, the market environment is considered negative but is moderating (bias) somewhat. The market could have declined, even though it didn't- the positive environment experienced this week is attributed to the holiday low volume and under attendance of traders. It is the position of the Barometer, that if it weren't for the holiday-effect, the market most likely would have been less positive- discounting great economical news is not a favorable signal- that normally leaves open the enhanced possibility of negative news to control the environment. This coming week will be a better gage of sentiment.

11/30/03 Sunday 12:43 PM ET- New week, new month- last month of the year and a lot of economical data for traders to digest. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) PMI is scheduled for release Monday and could be a market mover depending how the PMI is viewed by analysts and economist against expectations. The ISM services (non-manufacturing) number is released on Wednesday and it too could move traders. Other data to be released; payrolls data, jobless claims, factory orders, and the unemployment rate among others- all this week. Traders could opt out of all this weeks data in favor of waiting to see what the FOMC (the following week) meeting conjures up- traders will want to know the bias of the Fed with relation to raising interest rate- Fed language will be important. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

11/30/03 Sunday 5:10 PM ET- An updated market memo indicates a growing concern that the Fed will hike rates sooner than first anticipated. "Traders are becoming more aware that a Federal interest rate hike is on the horizon. Six months ago, an interest rate hike was not a concern- thinking then was a rate hike would be dealt with in late 2004 or even 2005. Within the last month, economical data suggests a much faster economical recovery that most had not anticipated."

11/28/03 Friday-  

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

10:55 AM ET- Major indexes crawl back to just positive in light trading as some traders took the day after Thanksgiving off. The focus for today is; last trading day of the month- could get volatile with such light volume, gold and Dollar concerns. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a cautionary bias.

11:37 AM ET- The market continues to stair-step its way higher in late morning trading on light volume. The DOW better by 19, S&P gains 1, and the NASDAQ posts 7+.

2:59 PM ET corrected- Stock market ends mixed in a short holiday session. The DOW and S&P end flat, but NASDAQ ends with a .4 percent gain. Advancing issues out weigh decliners by nearly 11/2 to 1. Market closes early in observance of Thanksgiving, and will reopen Monday for a full session.

5:04 PM ET- Short week ends with a short Friday, as the stock market doesn't make much headway. The indices ended mixed with the NASDAQ outperforming. With today's neutral performance, the market-plot continues to hover just above the bear-bull line. This could indicate a further move into bear territory, but could also be seen as testing resistance that could fail. The leading indicator chart shows the Barometer-plot between the positive and negative boundaries. This configuration could lead to a leading indicator change depending on Monday's market performance. It is to early to tell if the negative environment will continue, or if an upbeat market can be generated next week- Monday and Tuesday will give us a better idea on market direction. There should be some data from retail sales on black Friday (day after Thanksgiving retail shopping)- traders could react to any retail news through the rest of the year. 

11/27/03 Thursday-

10:37 AM ET- U.S. markets closed today to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. The stock market is scheduled to reopen Friday at 9:30 AM Eastern.

11/26/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

10:50 AM ET- Nothing but great economical data keeps a lid on the market- the indices hug the unchanged-line after a good start this morning. At 10:37 Eastern, the DOW and S&P within .1 percent of unchanged and the NASDAQ a gain of .3 percent. The Barometer forecast continues to indicate negative with a cautionary bias.

11:50 AM ET- Approaching noon and the indexes take a dip. Trader thinking might be; econ data already priced in, not going to make any large bets ahead of a long holiday-weekend, and the hotter the economy the quicker the Fed will raise rates. All good reasons to take profits. At 11:37 the major indices are off by 1/2 percent, advancing issues and declining issues are near even, 1:1.

3:19 PM ET- With less than an hour to go, indices are near flat. Those traders that did come in, have left or are on the way out- to get a head start on the holiday. The DOW up by 8, S&P +3, and NASDAQ +3, with light volume.

4:38 PM ET- Indices and stocks end positive, DOW lags- but ends with a slight gain. An expected light day sees choppy trading with less than full trading attendance. Continued great economical data does little for traders and investors as taking on large positions ahead of a long holiday-weekend is not a good strategy, especially with terror concerns looming. The U.S. stock market will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday but traders will return Friday for a half-day session. No economical data is scheduled for release Friday.

11/25/03 Tuesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a neutral start. GDP data released this morning says the economy is growing at 8.2 percent- better than most had expected.

10:57 AM ET corrected- On the heels of the better than expected GDP number this morning, came a strong consumer confidence number- all of which are being ignored. The averages are slightly positive, within .2 percent of flat. The Conference Board, a research group, said consumer confidence for November rose to 91.7 from 81.7 in October. The Barometer leading indicator was changed last evening to neutral as was the bias yesterday afternoon. The Barometer forecast now indicates a negative market going forward with a neutral bias.

3:21 PM ET- Delayed response to this mornings good economical data, as the averages takeoff in mid-afternoon trading. The major indices are up nearly 1/2 percent and climbing. Advancing issues outperform declining issues by nearly 2:1.

4:47 PM ET- Stocks do OK, but averages take a hit as they near the end of trade. Another rumor- this one, that the Government went on red alert but decided to keep the nations alert at orange- also Homeland Security warned that attacks by terrorist are high. The averages closed well off the highs of the day, nearly flat.

6:04 PM ET- The market is back to discounting good news- GDP grows by 8.2 percent and consumer confidence number exceeds projections- can't seem to move the averages past the trading range. According to the Barometer, the plot shows the market right at the bear-bull line, any negative days could cause more of a pullback or correction. Good economical data Wednesday could move traders to push stock a little higher- but with the new terror warning, it still is hard to believe that traders are willing to put-on large positions going into holiday-weekend. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a neutral bias.

11/24/03 Monday-

9:14 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:34 AM ET- Market gets underway with a positive surge with the indices posting a 1 to 1.9 percent gain. Groups that are doing well this morning are the small and mid capitalization stocks with large cap stocks lagging somewhat. In the broader market, advancing issues are over declining issues by better than 2:1. The Barometer models are continuing to search for a firm trend that might break the negative pattern of the past couple of weeks. The Barometer forecast currently indicates a mostly negative market place going forward.

2:56 PM ET- After the initial burst by the averages this morning, the indices continue the day going sideways. Just below the highs of the session, the DOW is up 107, S&P up by 13, and the NASDAQ up by 36. The Barometer models will pay attention to the last hour of trade to see if a firm trend can be confirmed.

4:35 PM ET- Indices run-up in early trading this morning and sags a tiny bit during mid-session, and has a pop at the end of the day to close with nice gains. The Barometer models detect a firming trend and indicates an upgrade of the bias to caution form negative. However, the forecast continues to indicate mostly negative for the time being.

6:10 PM ET- A positive day today keeps the Barometer-plot in bear territory. A bounce off the bear-bull line tends to be bullish if the market can continue Tuesday and confirm Monday's rally. A positive day Tuesday would give the bull camp a real celebration over Thanksgiving, especially if Wednesday can be as positive. The Barometer models will run this evening to see if the leading indicator needs to be changed.

10:45 PM ET- The Barometer forecast leading indicator was changed tonight to a neutral stance. "During the model run this evening, the data suggests that, even though that today's market was positive, the negative trend that was established more than two weeks ago, has now firmed."

Weekend-   

11/22/03 Saturday 12:58 PM ET- The week that was, saw the market continue to discount good economical and earnings reports but focuses mainly on terrorism. Major upturn in terrorism last weekend, got traders and investors on the defensive early in the week, as all the good news appears to be priced into stocks. commodities like oil and gold continue to advance, that, with the dollar and terror concerns keeps a lid on equities. The Barometer forecast was changed on Tuesday (11/18/03) to negative from caution- indicating further weakness in the market- possibly a pullback or correction. The leading indicator was changed to negative from neutral on Monday, 11/10/03- a negative on the leading indicator indicates a worsening market and a probable forecast change within 4 to 8 trade days. The DOW and S&P end the week with a 1.4 percent loss, while the NASDAQ ended with nearly a 2 percent loss (weekly percentage are calculated from the previous Friday's close).

11/23/03 Sunday 11:25 AM ET- The week opens with a hopeful-focus on the short holiday week. Barring terrorism news, the focus beside being a short week should be on a boatload of economical data coming Tuesday and Wednesday. Watch for reports like preliminary GDP, home sales data, sentiment/confidence reports, jobless data, beige book, and others that could move traders. With the U.S. market being closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and a half day session Friday, it will be unlike traders to take on large positions going into long holiday-weekend, especially with the increase of terrorism. The Barometer continues to indicate a negative environment.

11/21/03 Friday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:22 AM ET- Terrorism news continues to hold stocks at bay- buyers not willing to commit over the weekend. Not much in way of economical news today but will have a lot for traders to consider early next week. Unless terror reports keep up today, should have a slow but probably mostly negative market environment. The Barometer continues to indicate a negative environment.

4:30 PM ET- The DOW and S&P held to .1, and .2 percent gain- NASDAQ gains better than 1/2 percent on the day. Terrorism again filled the news and it appears no one is willing to make big commitments going into the weekend and with a holiday week come up. Broader market outperformed the indices, for the most part.

11/20/03 Thursday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open- terrorism concerns being focused on this morning. Jobless claims data keeps negative market in check.

10:44 AM ET- Terrorism concerns sends the stock market down in early trade. Major averages decline early but recover to near the flat line as terror concerns, both abroad and in the U.S., take center stage this morning. At 10:35 ET Dow and S&P off by .4, and .2, the NASDAQ is flat. The Barometer continues to indicate negative with a negative bias.

3:04 PM ET- Stocks comeback to near flat in the last hour of trade. Averages down sharply this morning only to trend back and enter positive territory. With an hour to go, the indices hang close to unchanged, as good and bad news mostly offset each other and translate into little change. Small capitalization stocks seem to be benefiting as the other groups are mostly unchanged. The Barometer continues to indicate a negative market environment going forward.

4:30 PM ET- Stocks dive in the last hour today as bad news finally takes its toll. Market sold off this morning on terror concerns only to see a steady trend back into positive territory. After lunch the indices began trending out of positive territory and at about 3:10 ET the sell off began. The DOW lost .7, NASDAQ .9, and the underperforming S&P lost 1.1 percent.

11/19/03 Wednesday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open.

11:39 AM ET- Stocks rebound from days of losses on less terrorism news- but upbeat housing data gets buyers motivated. At 11:30 AM ET, DOW and S&P up .5 percent, and the NASDAQ up .6 percent- just slightly off the highs of the morning. The Barometer, changed last evening, now indicates a negative market environment with a negative Barometer bias.

3:28 PM ET- Inside an hour to go and stocks continue to rebound. At 3:15 ET, the major indices are up .7, .8, and .9 percent for the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ, respectively. The Barometer forecast, changed last evening, indicates negative market environment going forward.

4:20 PM ET- The lack of bad news and continued good economical news send the averages higher after several days of selling. The DOW and S&P end .7 and .8 percent higher- slightly off the highs of the day and the NASDAQ ends with a one percent gain. Broader market gains- advancing issues outpace decliners. The Barometer models are looking for a firm trend- none developed today. The Barometer indicate a negative market going forward.

11/18/03 Tuesday-

9:23 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-positive open. An unchanged CPI- as expected- and a rebound from yesterday, indicates a mostly positive open.

11:17 AM ET- Stocks drift lower after good start, partially on GE upgrade to a buy and a general cooling down of geopolitical news. At 11:06 ET, the major indexes are within .2 percent of the flat line. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

2:29 PM ET- Indices hug the no change line for most of the day, but since have weakened, as trading approaches the last hour. Advancing issues were outperforming decliners but they too have soften and are now close to 1:1 ratio. The market continues to discount good news, leaving open bad news to affect traders- if that should occur. At 2:11 ET, DOW and S&P off by .5%, NASDAQ off by .7%.

4:31 PM ET- Indices slide in the last half-hour to close at the lows of the day. A continued sense that the market is at high levels, as good news continues to be ignored. Additionally, commodities are becoming a concern, as oil and gold continue the trek upwards. The DOW and S&P lose .9 percent and the NASDAQ, now under 1900, losses 1.5 percent. The Barometer indicate caution at this time.

6:56 PM ET- Negative boundary begins its turn down- If Wednesday is a negative day, that would indicate further weakness... Today's Barometer-plot places the market at the point we entered bear territory, some 6 weeks ago. It would be reasonable to expect that Wednesday to be a positive market day to test this resistance/support line...

10:53 PM ET- Models are ran each trade day and evening that analyze market performance. The last run of the evening is around 9:30 PM ET, when the final data for the day can be analyzed for potential changes to the Barometer forecast. As expected, the Barometer model data indicates a forecast change to a more negative market environment going forward. All the indicators and metrics seem to be pointing to a lower market (the major indices)- possibly a pullback or correction. There is no way of knowing the extent of the negative environment, but the data suggests a negative market for at least one to two weeks. This is only a guess at this point, there is no way of knowing until additional data can be analyzed. The Barometer now indicates negative with a negative bias.

Weekend-

11/17/03 Monday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

11:53 AM ET- Market gets off to a tough start with the major averages heading south in late morning trade. An increase in terrorism is taking the spotlight as well as the mutual fund mishandling problem. Overseas markets sold off today, reportedly because of increase terror concern. At 11:30 ET, the DOW was off 100+, S&P off 12, and the NASDAQ off better than 30. The Barometer continues to indicate caution.

12:38 PM ET- As was suggested by the Barometer, good and great news, for the past several weeks, has been discounted by traders. This normally means if good news can't move traders to buy, it must mean the good stuff has been priced into stocks. When that happens, the market is open to attack by bad news- case in point- all the talk of increase terrorism over the weekend and the mutual fund muck. Now what is important is how much more bad news is out there, and how long before bad news gets discounted. The strength of this early bull market will be known by how resilient the market is when it tries to make a comeback from current news. In the meantime, the Barometer continues to indicate caution.

4:29 PM ET- Market makes a comeback and closes well off the lows of the day. The DOW -58, S&P -7, and the NASDAQ -21.

6:58 PM ET- A down day today causes the Barometer-plot to decline and take the positive boundary with it. This configuration indicates a probable pullback- a negative stock market.

10:33 PM ET- The Barometer models, late night run, indicates no change to the forecast at this time. The only lacking indicator is the negative boundary, which is currently moving sideways. That indicator would need to weaken (chart would show the plot begin a decline) before the metrics would be in place to indicate a probable pullback. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias. The leading indicator continues to indicate additional weak market days ahead.

11/15/03 Saturday 12:47 PM ET- For the week, the major indices basically go nowhere, although the NASDAQ closes with a near 2 percent loss. Mostly good economical and earnings news continues to have little positive effect over the market, as favorable reports are being discounted. Fears of a mid-2004 rate hike is beginning to take center stage, as more and more talk of the Fed increasing the current 1 percent interest rate is becoming a focal point. The Barometer shows the March 2003 advance into bear territory has come to a halt as the chart shows new resistance has been created- the market seems to be consolidating or topping out. The leading indicator indicates a pullback or correction possibly days away. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias.

11/16/03 Sunday 12:29 PM ET- We are at the end of 3rd. quarter earnings, and even though earnings have appeared to be good overall, many analysts believe that this has already been priced into stocks. The focus will be more economical data including; business inventory, CPI, housing and building data, the Philadelphia Fed report, and jobless data. Towards the end of the week, the focus will be on the approaching U.S. Thanksgiving holiday- the following week. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias. The leading indicator indicates a pullback or correction could be close, especially if Monday and Tuesday are negative.

11/14/03 Friday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral- flat start.

12:35 PM ET- Stocks got a good start on mixed economical data only to see the gains disappear shortly after the market got underway. Fears of a rate increase by the Fed seems to be at center stage today. If the economical recovery gets to hot, the Fed, at some point, will come in and raise interest rates- currently at 1 percent. Thinking might be if the Fed raises rates as early as mid 2004, then in terms of pricing, a rate hike may not be priced in the market at this point. The market is forward-looking by about 6 to 9 months (timeframe for a rate hike) and if rates begin rising mid 2004, we may see sell on the rumor soon. So traders thinking might be- the better the economical data the worse it might be- as that could help the Fed make that rate increase call. Market psychology may be changing- sell on what you would think is good recovery news and rally on news that keeps the Fed at bay. The reason traders might sell on rumors is that rumors have a habit of coming true (in some form or fashion), and when the facts come out that don't seem to be as bad as the rumor, they buy it back- they buy because the news would have been priced into the market during the rumor phase. So hold on, we will be entering a different kind of market (timeframe unknown)- the kind of market you see when sell-offs and rallies get real volatile.

4:52 PM ET- Indices dive at mid afternoon and close near the lows of the session. With mixed economical data to contend with and the growing focus on rate hike, profits were taken to close the week that saw the DOW and S&P close near flat and the NASDAQ closed with a 2 percent loss, all from previous Friday's close. The Barometer continues to indicate caution, while its leading indicator shows negative- the leading indicator leads the forecast and suggests that a pullback or correction is near. 

11/13/03 Thursday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open. Initial jobless claims grew but still within expectation.

11:56 AM ET- Stocks start out negative, but have trended off the lows of the morning. Wal-Mart (WMT) reported a penny EPS less than expected and is trading down. The Barometer continues to indicate caution with a neutral bias- the leading indicator is negative- meaning a more negative environment could be approaching.

2:35 PM ET- Site Information. We changed the bias definition. It is no longer an indication of how today's trading is proceeding. It now reflects, more accurately, the trends of trading throughout the day and how trends precede forecast changes.

3:43 PM ET- Stocks try a comeback in the last hour but run out of steam as the indices drop back. Dell to report earnings after the close and could inspire traders in after-hours as well as Friday. Friday traders will mull over a lot of economical data including PPI, retail sales, and sentiment report.

4:40 PM ET- Market under water all day- makes an attempt at a comeback but fails and finally gets within shouting-range to end the day slightly lower. Dell reports it met expectation on early release of earnings, Dell slightly lower in after-hours.

9:59 PM ET- We changed the bias definition to more accurately reflect how the indicator works in measuring stock market trends throughout the trade day. Trends are important, the models consider trends, as they are instrumental in determining forecast metrics. To read the bias definition, click this link.

11/12/03 Wednesday-

9:20 AM ET- Look for a mild, neutral open.

11:22 AM ET- A positive start at the near bottom of the trading range- the S&P and DOW posting slight gains with the NASDAQ leading the way with a .7 percent advance. With no news for traders, it again looks like a slow sideways but possibly positive day. At this time, the Barometer continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

2:42 PM ET- An updated market memo indicates a greater probability that the major indices could continue sideways- a tight trading range. It also identifies the labor market as the last lagging indicator. "The only lagging indicator is the labor market, and it appears to be strengthening. Traders and investors will keep a watch on this indicator..."

3:43 PM ET- Stocks continue trending positive in the last hour of trade as the lower end of the trading range holds up. The Barometer bias was changed because the models found a firm trend.

4:24 PM ET- Stocks advance today with strong showing of the major indexes as they trended positive all day to close above 1 percent- NASDAQ closes with over a 2 percent gain. The bias was changed to caution, this afternoon, because the models picked up a firm trend of the indices at the lower end of the trading range. The forecast now indicates caution with a cautionary (neutral) bias.

11:49 PM ET- Site Information. We changed the definition of the bias. It is no longer an indication of how today's trading is proceeding. It now reflect, more accurately, the trends of trading and how the trends precede forecast changes.

11/11/03 Tuesday-

9:22 AM ET- Look for a neutral-to-negative open.

11:36 AM ET- The indices are dancing the Texas two step- market kicks down, goes sideways (range trading). A negative open on lack of - - - -. "Fill in the blanks"- its something to do while the market does its thing. Light volume as the broader market is losing with majority of issues declining. The Barometer bias was changed to negative near the close yesterday and the leading indicator was changed late yesterday evening to negative. The Barometer now reads caution with a negative bias. The leading indicator downgrade indicates an increase risk that the market (the major indices) to pullback or possibly enter a channel, a sideways moving market. At 11:15 Eastern, indices were improving, closing in on the flat line.

2:47 PM ET- Inside of two hours to go, the indices are in a tight range moving sideways. At 2:23, the losses are .1%, .2%, and .5% for the S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ, respectively.

4:44 PM ET- Market can't get out of first gear. Indices continue to drift lower as the major indexes end flat for the day. The broader market ends with declining issues beating out advancing issues 2 to 1. New issues making 52 week highs are shrinking from last weeks triple digit winners. The forecast continues to indicate caution with a negative bias.

11/10/03 Monday-

9:24 AM ET- Look for a neutral open- a slight chance of the major indices opening mixed.

11:05 AM ET- Stocks got off to a negative start as traders, investors, and analysts are debating pullback. With little to no economical news, the average