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EU continues to sour
trades
Producer price index
and
consumer price index data reports show
traders and investors that there isn't much of a concern --for now-- for
inflation and today's
Fed FOMC minutes for April [the last FOMC
meeting] shows an economic recover underway with the labor market starting
to recover. As for interest rates, the target for the Fed funds rate
should remain low for an extended period of time.
With all this good news you would think the stock market would be rising with no
end in sight, but EU concerns continue to overshadow the markets and stocks do
what they do best if tough times, move lower.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Rally Monday
to the unchanged line
A trader was heard to say (last week) that you can buy stocks at the beginning
of the week, sell on Friday and make a buck or two (paraphrased). It looks
to be true, so far, with last Mondays big rally (400 plus Dow points) and
today's, well, a sell off to start, turnaround rally. We were able to end
the day a little above unchanged which was something like 190 Dow point
from the bottom.
Equities are mostly trading inverse to the U.S. Dollar with today, at high noon,
a turning point for both, sending the equity market to rally and the Dollar
index to sink back to early morning levels.
Barometer models continue to support the forecast,
as is, with some data points showing early signs of further decay- meaning a
possible forecast change to negative if things don't turnaround soon.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Markets
still troubled over debt problems
The markets continue to be troubled over the global economy and credit problems
of countries, especially those of the EU. Stocks fell Friday as U.S.
economic recovery signs improve but the
Dollar
rising against the Euro sent stocks lower,
adding to Thursdays loss. The major indexes were able to managed a very
healthy gain for the week- thanks in part to Mondays rally.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Sour day
thanks to data and earnings
S&P 500 tested the 1170-1173 Thursday, several times, but after several attempts
the stock market fell to near session lows on continued economic worries and
somewhat priced-in stock prices as earnings winds down. Traders got off on
the wrong foot when the
jobless initial claims report came out showing
a slow jobs recovery and when Cisco Systems (csco)
did not beat the upper end range of expectation.
As earnings reports slowdown and come to an end, there is little good news out
there to push stocks up and a lot of bad that could drop stocks has traders are
worried as 'sell in May and go away' period is here. The S&P 500 was
unable to push past resistance, sending stocks down after several failed
attempts, as shares fell back taking most of yesterdays gain.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Barometer forecast gets downgraded to caution
Market Barometer model-run, this
afternoon, downgraded the forecast to caution from positive. Data from the
models suggest news tends to be a major concern for traders at this juncture, be
it negative or positive, and that traders are not willing to let news-detail
settle-out but traders are predisposed to sell or buy with a fast trigger finger
rather than make investment-type trades. Traders don't want to be the last
in or out of the building (metaphor) so they tend to overshoot targets, to play
it safe.
A caution forecast is not bad or
good, necessarily. A caution forecast means cash may have to be adjusted
to accommodate greater risk for the period. Next few sessions, while the
BLI and Bias are still in a negative position, may be the riskiest period.
Watch for easing of these indicators that
might
indicate a less tense period of
concern.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
EU rescue
package rally stocks, Dow up over 400 points
Big Rally Monday, thanks to EU rescue package, after last weeks big sell off,
thanks to EU inaction, as investors and traders send shares up while Short's try
to cover. The rally recovered some of last weeks massive sell off but
traders watched Mondays close for signs of weakness. No weakness was found
as stocks end the session slightly off the high.
Market Barometer model data shows uncertainty in traders-rally Monday as a lot
of the gain might be contributed by short covering. More positive sessions
are needed before the BLI and Bias indicators can be moved back to neutral.
Monday, May 10, 2010
TGIF evening and
marketeers can lick their wounds
The Barometer program model Friday downgraded the Bias to
negative from neutral. Traders are not finished with selling the
market down as fear grip traders and until Greece debt problems are secured and
no other Europe Union country is tagged, traders will take the easy trade.
An unexpected payroll jobs report (290,000 job created)
did little for traders Friday as the Greece contagion has grip the market and
stocks could still be in jeopardy even at these levels as the global environment
look to be iffy, as traders see things, and guess what, the path of least
resistance today is down.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Bias
downgraded by Barometer model
Forecast models are working overtime. The same
afternoon model run as yesterdays BLI downgrade is changing the Bias to negative
today.
Model data continues to indicate
conditions for the stock market are not improving but worsening. Moving
the Bias to negative is the last step before changing the forecast to caution.
Data suggests because of Greece and
the infection that could spread, traders could continually dump stocks if
conditions deteriorate further.
The stock market outlook page has more on the downgrade...
Friday, May 7, 2010
BLI
downgrade amid problematic P&G trade
The afternoon Barometer model run (run occurred at
2:52p) downgraded the BLI to negative from neutral on Thursday. Data from
the models, even though modified by a potential faulty P&G trade, indicate a
turn in sentiment. Traders are fearing that Greece credit troubles could
spread Globally, causing stocks in the U.S. or stocks having earnings globally,
to continue to run lower, in the coming weeks and months.
It is hard to determine where real trading and the
faulty trading inspired declines occurred, but it is clear that the stock market
was already moving lower on Greece troubles when the so called trading glitch
occurred around 2:45p. Fridays markets will be important for further
determining where we go from these levels.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Barometer model lowers the Bias to neutral
The Barometer afternoon model-run downgraded the forecast-Bias to neutral.
A neutral bias shows a degree of uncertainty with model data.
Equities continued Tuesdays sell off with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500
off by nearly 0.5 percent with the NASDAQ index off near one-percent. Even
though the major indexes ended off the low of the day, the negative ness by
traders still rule markets.
The question is where will the stock market go from here.
Market Barometer model data suggest that the Bull market
is still alive, a bullish outlook with an exception.
Market fundamentals are good, the
exception is traders react to negative news by immediately selling and then
trying to figure out what the news really means. That is why we have one
day up and the next day down.
Always be aware and watch for
forecast changes that will come sooner or later. A positive neutral
neutral forecast indicates a continuing bull market with some pullbacks that
could come at any time.
See the forecast outlook page for a brief description of the indicators.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
So where does the stock market go from today's levels.
Market Barometer Model data suggest a continuation of the bull market, almost at
the same pace of the prior 14-months
but with a slight less degree
of confidence.
Some analysts and forecasters say stocks are pricey and a correction- pullback
is very real at these levels. A positive neutral neutral forecast is still
a bullish position that could last for some time to come.
Fundamentals are one thing and market change on news is another. Always
watch the forecast display (top left) for change. If the situation gets
worse the BLI and/or Bias will go negative prior to a downgrade of the forecast
itself.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Stocks sell off amid Greece, EU worries and more
Europe's credit problems and what could play-out past Greece debt rescue,
plagued traders Tuesday. The big question is what country might be next to
ask for a bailout. Will it be Portugal or Spain or one of the other EU
countries and how will it affect the European Union, traders wonder.
Almost all the news today had market traders bouncing from the equity side, to
the Dollar, to oil, and other commodities. Like the past several months,
when it comes to that kind of tradeoff, the stock market will loss every time.
Today's worries sent the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ down, closing near
the low of the day. The Market Barometer forecast models are degrading
somewhat because of the volatility in the stock market, over Greece bailout
uncertainty, European Union manageability of the crises, China's factory
production slowdown, and U.S. stock market being somewhat pricey at these
levels.
It would be like the market to be up Wednesday if there is some good news but
much more selling could signal a direction change. Watch the forecast
indicator (top left) for changes.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Negative
start seen for stocks Tuesday
The U.S. stock market gets off to a
very negative start Tuesday on lots of concerns.
Portugal and Spain worries by traders and investors are
increasing. China's manufacturing slowdown is in focus
for the open of business as
well as earnings and outlook.
Greece, Spain, Portugal and
Goldman Sachs worries traders, also the Gulf oil spill are having a negative effect
over Barometer model data- downgrades to the forecast are
possible this week.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Stocks rally back
recovering most of Fridays loss
Europe's continuing credit troubles- specifically Greece (right now) possibly
Spain and Portugal- in the near future, are sending stocks up and down nearly
daily on news items that continue to haunt investors and traders. Over the
weekend a bailout was signaled by the EU and IMF of a bailout package which
helped investors and traders to send U.S. stocks up Monday.
UAL and Continental Airlines, merger of equals they say, with UNITED on the
front of the planes and Continentals world logo on the tail, helped traders to
move off the sidelines to the buy-side, while the Gulf oil spill put a damper on
market sentiment Monday.
The Dow and S&P 500 ramped up by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ rallied by 1-1/2
percent.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Greece and Goldman
Sachs are effecting model data
Market Barometer forecast models indicate a neutral BLI, which is a proper
setting for the
indicator at this time. The stock market is reacting OK to earnings,
but Greece and Goldman worries are having some effect over model data-
downgrades to the forecast are possible next week.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Buyers
sidelined Friday as bad news rules
Buyers were sidelined Friday with Greece credit problems and Goldman Sachs (GS)
widening troubles set the tone for Fridays market as equities retreated to
session lows. Next week could be very important for the stock market as
Market Barometer model data is degrading such that indications of a possible
change to the forecast is increasing.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Market consolidates past two weeks of gains
The stock market Monday was choppy and mixed along the
unchanged line with a slight move lower towards the close of business.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Sluggish stock market could lead to sell off
The stock market was kind of sluggish Wednesday, as traders are in the midst of
trading earnings, where stock buying follows earnings performance. Some
analysts and forecasters are becoming wary over the stock market, as it has
run-up a lot since March 2009, where the bear market turned bullish.
Stocks are up so much, worried traders are growing nervous and the mentality of
shoot and ask questions later --sell the news-- may be close.
watch for changes to the forecast, left side upper corner.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
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