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CAUTION |
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.Bias |
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.BLI |
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FORECAST: Today's forecast Market watch MARKETS: Market overview News INVESTING: Investing 101 Stock screener
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Today's market forecast and news Forecast; S&P 500 performance; Today's snippets.
U.S. and overseas market update... Market news; indexes and charts
Market major indexes and latest news....
Top stories and market summary...
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Fear takes stocks down hard for a third session Jobless unemployment really doesn't come into play Thursday as trader-fear grips Wall Street stocks, zapping everything that has Dollars. Investors and traders continue to sell stock positions and build cash for three straight days as worries over everything drives sentiment.
Nearly everything moved negative Thursday- the U.S. Dollar, Gold, oil, U.S. stocks, Nat gas. U.S. stocks were hammered by traders when fear took hold sending the major indices lower by nearly 4-percent Thursday.
Market Barometer model data forecast metrics are near trigger levels but Fridays market could turn neutral or even positive. Caution remains the forecast to the start of business Friday. Thursday, May 20, 2010
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Producer price index and consumer price index data reports show traders and investors that there isn't much of a concern --for now-- for inflation and today's Fed FOMC minutes for April [the last FOMC meeting] shows an economic recover underway with the labor market starting to recover. As for interest rates, the target for the Fed funds rate should remain low for an extended period of time.
With all this good news you would think the stock market would be rising with no end in sight, but EU concerns continue to overshadow the markets and stocks do what they do best if tough times, move lower. Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Rally Monday to the unchanged line A trader was heard to say (last week) that you can buy stocks at the beginning of the week, sell on Friday and make a buck or two (paraphrased). It looks to be true, so far, with last Mondays big rally (400 plus Dow points) and today's, well, a sell off to start, turnaround rally. We were able to end the day a little above unchanged which was something like 190 Dow point from the bottom.
Equities are mostly trading inverse to the U.S. Dollar with today, at high noon, a turning point for both, sending the equity market to rally and the Dollar index to sink back to early morning levels.
Barometer models continue to support the forecast, as is, with some data points showing early signs of further decay- meaning a possible forecast change to negative if things don't turnaround soon. Monday, May 17, 2010
Markets still troubled over debt problems The markets continue to be troubled over the global economy and credit problems of countries, especially those of the EU. Stocks fell Friday as U.S. economic recovery signs improve but the Dollar rising against the Euro sent stocks lower, adding to Thursdays loss. The major indexes were able to managed a very healthy gain for the week- thanks in part to Mondays rally. Friday, May 14, 2010
Sour day thanks to data and earnings S&P 500 tested the 1170-1173 Thursday, several times, but after several attempts the stock market fell to near session lows on continued economic worries and somewhat priced-in stock prices as earnings winds down. Traders got off on the wrong foot when the jobless initial claims report came out showing a slow jobs recovery and when Cisco Systems (csco) did not beat the upper end range of expectation.
As earnings reports slowdown and come to an end, there is little good news out there to push stocks up and a lot of bad that could drop stocks has traders are worried as 'sell in May and go away' period is here. The S&P 500 was unable to push past resistance, sending stocks down after several failed attempts, as shares fell back taking most of yesterdays gain. Thursday, May 13, 2010
Barometer forecast gets downgraded to caution Market Barometer model-run, this afternoon, downgraded the forecast to caution from positive. Data from the models suggest news tends to be a major concern for traders at this juncture, be it negative or positive, and that traders are not willing to let news-detail settle-out but traders are predisposed to sell or buy with a fast trigger finger rather than make investment-type trades. Traders don't want to be the last in or out of the building (metaphor) so they tend to overshoot targets, to play it safe.
A caution forecast is not bad or good, necessarily. A caution forecast means cash may have to be adjusted to accommodate greater risk for the period. Next few sessions, while the BLI and Bias are still in a negative position, may be the riskiest period. Watch for easing of these indicators that might indicate a less tense period of concern. Tuesday, May 11, 2010
EU rescue package rally stocks, Dow up over 400 points Big Rally Monday, thanks to EU rescue package, after last weeks big sell off, thanks to EU inaction, as investors and traders send shares up while Short's try to cover. The rally recovered some of last weeks massive sell off but traders watched Mondays close for signs of weakness. No weakness was found as stocks end the session slightly off the high.
Market Barometer model data shows uncertainty in traders-rally Monday as a lot of the gain might be contributed by short covering. More positive sessions are needed before the BLI and Bias indicators can be moved back to neutral. Monday, May 10, 2010
TGIF evening and marketeers can lick their wounds The Barometer program model Friday downgraded the Bias to negative from neutral. Traders are not finished with selling the market down as fear grip traders and until Greece debt problems are secured and no other Europe Union country is tagged, traders will take the easy trade. An unexpected payroll jobs report (290,000 job created) did little for traders Friday as the Greece contagion has grip the market and stocks could still be in jeopardy even at these levels as the global environment look to be iffy, as traders see things, and guess what, the path of least resistance today is down. Friday, May 7, 2010
Bias downgraded by Barometer model Forecast models are working overtime. The same afternoon model run as yesterdays BLI downgrade is changing the Bias to negative today. Model data continues to indicate conditions for the stock market are not improving but worsening. Moving the Bias to negative is the last step before changing the forecast to caution. Data suggests because of Greece and the infection that could spread, traders could continually dump stocks if conditions deteriorate further. The stock market outlook page has more on the downgrade... Friday, May 7, 2010 BLI downgrade amid problematic P&G trade The afternoon Barometer model run (run occurred at 2:52p) downgraded the BLI to negative from neutral on Thursday. Data from the models, even though modified by a potential faulty P&G trade, indicate a turn in sentiment. Traders are fearing that Greece credit troubles could spread Globally, causing stocks in the U.S. or stocks having earnings globally, to continue to run lower, in the coming weeks and months.
It is hard to determine where real trading and the faulty trading inspired declines occurred, but it is clear that the stock market was already moving lower on Greece troubles when the so called trading glitch occurred around 2:45p. Fridays markets will be important for further determining where we go from these levels. Thursday, May 6, 2010
Barometer model lowers the Bias to neutral The Barometer afternoon model-run downgraded the forecast-Bias to neutral. A neutral bias shows a degree of uncertainty with model data.
Equities continued Tuesdays sell off with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 off by nearly 0.5 percent with the NASDAQ index off near one-percent. Even though the major indexes ended off the low of the day, the negative ness by traders still rule markets.
The question is where will the stock market go from here. Market Barometer model data suggest that the Bull market is still alive, a bullish outlook with an exception.
Market fundamentals are good, the exception is traders react to negative news by immediately selling and then trying to figure out what the news really means. That is why we have one day up and the next day down.
Always be aware and watch for forecast changes that will come sooner or later. A positive neutral neutral forecast indicates a continuing bull market with some pullbacks that could come at any time. See the forecast outlook page for a brief description of the indicators. Wednesday, May 5, 2010
So where does the stock market go from today's levels. Market Barometer Model data suggest a continuation of the bull market, almost at the same pace of the prior 14-months but with a slight less degree of confidence.
Some analysts and forecasters say stocks are pricey and a correction- pullback is very real at these levels. A positive neutral neutral forecast is still a bullish position that could last for some time to come.
Fundamentals are one thing and market change on news is another. Always watch the forecast display (top left) for change. If the situation gets worse the BLI and/or Bias will go negative prior to a downgrade of the forecast itself. Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Stocks sell off amid Greece, EU worries and more Europe's credit problems and what could play-out past Greece debt rescue, plagued traders Tuesday. The big question is what country might be next to ask for a bailout. Will it be Portugal or Spain or one of the other EU countries and how will it affect the European Union, traders wonder.
Almost all the news today had market traders bouncing from the equity side, to the Dollar, to oil, and other commodities. Like the past several months, when it comes to that kind of tradeoff, the stock market will loss every time.
Today's worries sent the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ down, closing near the low of the day. The Market Barometer forecast models are degrading somewhat because of the volatility in the stock market, over Greece bailout uncertainty, European Union manageability of the crises, China's factory production slowdown, and U.S. stock market being somewhat pricey at these levels.
It would be like the market to be up Wednesday if there is some good news but much more selling could signal a direction change. Watch the forecast indicator (top left) for changes. Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Negative start seen for stocks Tuesday The U.S. stock market gets off to a very negative start Tuesday on lots of concerns.
Portugal and Spain worries by traders and investors are increasing. China's manufacturing slowdown is in focus for the open of business as well as earnings and outlook. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Goldman Sachs worries traders, also the Gulf oil spill are having a negative effect over Barometer model data- downgrades to the forecast are possible this week. Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Stocks rally back recovering most of Fridays loss Europe's continuing credit troubles- specifically Greece (right now) possibly Spain and Portugal- in the near future, are sending stocks up and down nearly daily on news items that continue to haunt investors and traders. Over the weekend a bailout was signaled by the EU and IMF of a bailout package which helped investors and traders to send U.S. stocks up Monday.
UAL and Continental Airlines, merger of equals they say, with UNITED on the front of the planes and Continentals world logo on the tail, helped traders to move off the sidelines to the buy-side, while the Gulf oil spill put a damper on market sentiment Monday.
The Dow and S&P 500 ramped up by 1.3 percent, and the NASDAQ rallied by 1-1/2 percent. Monday, May 3, 2010
Greece and Goldman Sachs are effecting model data Market Barometer forecast models indicate a neutral BLI, which is a proper setting for the indicator at this time. The stock market is reacting OK to earnings, but Greece and Goldman worries are having some effect over model data- downgrades to the forecast are possible next week. Saturday, May 1, 2010
Buyers sidelined Friday as bad news rules Buyers were sidelined Friday with Greece credit problems and Goldman Sachs (GS) widening troubles set the tone for Fridays market as equities retreated to session lows. Next week could be very important for the stock market as Market Barometer model data is degrading such that indications of a possible change to the forecast is increasing. Friday, April 30, 2010
Market consolidates past two weeks of gains The stock market Monday was choppy and mixed along the unchanged line with a slight move lower towards the close of business. Monday, April 26, 2010
Sluggish stock market could lead to sell off The stock market was kind of sluggish Wednesday, as traders are in the midst of trading earnings, where stock buying follows earnings performance. Some analysts and forecasters are becoming wary over the stock market, as it has run-up a lot since March 2009, where the bear market turned bullish. Stocks are up so much, worried traders are growing nervous and the mentality of shoot and ask questions later --sell the news-- may be close. watch for changes to the forecast, left side upper corner. Wednesday, April 21, 2010
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