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FORECAST: Today's forecast Market watch MARKETS: Market overview News INVESTING: Investing 101 Stock screener
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Today's market forecast and news Forecast; S&P 500 performance; Today's snippets.
U.S. and overseas market update... Market news; indexes and charts
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Past 13 sessions, stocks have gone stagnant as S&P 500- 1100 gets tested over and over and over Is Friday the big day? Finally getting equities to move somewhere? For the past thirteen sessions the S&P 500 continues to bounce around the 1100 mark- ending Thursday session at 1,099.92.
The test of the 1100 has failed numerous times and that normally means bad news for equities. Usually a test of an area of resistance either gets blown right through it OR it plays with it and finally fails and the market sells off- kind of what we're seeing now.
Fridays unemployment report just might be the catalyst that gets us moving in one direction or the other. The market is real ripe for a sell-off, valuations are said to be plump and the next set of earnings may or may not be pleasing to investors. The payroll report could be the catalysts that gets markets moving again.
The models are crunching the numbers and it looks real good for a Forecast downgrade if things don't perk up soon. Thursday, December 3, 2009
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Stocks sluggish trade Wednesday ends mixed, tech outperforms broader market The stock market was flat most of Wednesday after a pre-open ADP [small business] report and a mid morning Beige Book report.
The broader market was sluggish and ended flat while tech stocks rose 0.4 percent on the day. Oil prices sold off, bouncing around like equities, while gold price has a one track mind as it continues to ramp up.
Volatility could pick up, for better or worse, Thursday and Friday with a two day dose of unemployment data. Thursday's jobless new claims data hopefully will show continuing improvement while Fridays unemployment-rate and jobs lost report could cause an increase in volatility.
U.S. futures looked promising for Thursdays open as most global markets are in positive territory Thursday. Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Stocks rally Tuesday hope is for more Several more sessions like Today and we just might get stocks back on track and get past these resistance levels.
We have been testing the S&P 500 1,100 mark for some time now and today we blasted convincingly past it but we need to add more to this rally with several more sessions of gains.
The longer we stagnate the harder it will be to move past these resistance levels without selling off first.
The DJIA rose 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ rose 1-1/2 percent. Tuesday, December 1, 2009
U.S. stock market sold off along with global markets on Dubai news Equity market sold off Friday on fear that the Dubai news could be a new leg down for the financials and that the global economic recovery may not be on track as first believed. Oil and gold prices fell as traders and investors build cash position to wait for these problems to unwind.
The Dow posted a 1.5 percent loss, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both posted 1.7 percent loss.
The Market Barometer Leading Indicator [BLI] was downgraded to negative as data from the Thursday evening model run indicated a worsening of events for Fridays short holiday session. The BLI will maintain a negative stance until conditions improve over the next few sessions. Friday, November 27, 2009
Forecast continues at positive with a negative Leading Indicator Market Barometer models, this evening, downgraded the Barometer Leading Indicator to negative.
World markets are selling off over concerns of a debt rescheduling by the Dubai Government, according to Google, AFP Newswire report. Reaction by world markets was to sell off securities. U.S. futures are reported to be set for the U.S. equities market to sell off Friday morning in the pre market.
Whether there are substantial risk for investors is not know but investors and traders are quick to pull the sell trigger and the momentum could be a catalyst for a downturn and rip for a pullback.
The Leading Indicator at negative signals a turn in the markets direction. In this case a market turn lower. The Forecast will continue at positive until the models are able to measure the risk of a further slid in markets. Thursday, November 26, 2009
Data drives the Dollar lower and stocks higher Stocks gained ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday which marks the Christmas buying season that retailers and news media call Black Friday, the day when retailers supposedly go positive, or make a profit.
The markets will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, for Thanksgiving holiday but will reopen on Friday at the normal scheduled times for a half day session.
Jobless new claims finally dropped below the 500,000 level last week which lifted economic spirits.
The Dow and NASDAQ closed up by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 closed higher by 1/2 percent. Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Slow session with lots of data that had little effect over equities This was supposed to be a data driven day. Reports, reports, and more reports to churn but most of the data was already know. So its back to a Dollar driven stock market.
Actually its been a Dollar driven market for a while now. The Dollar and the stock market go in opposite direction- most of the time. Most everybody [analysts and economists] see the Dollar continuing lower so that must mean stocks are going up. We will see if the Dollar driven market continues or not.
Stocks slipped Tuesday after Mondays rally. Well off the low of the session, stocks rebound still ended short of the unchanged-line.
The stock market just missed a downgrade today by closing within reach of the unchanged line. Barometer models are close to calling a turn in the market- a turn for the worse- but the S&P 500 closed above the 1,100 mark for a second day, averting a Leading Indicator downgrade.
Wednesday is Thanksgiving-eve and should be very slow and light trading, so it may be next week before we see much interest in the stock market. The markets are close Thursday but will reopen Friday for a short session. Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Stock ramp up breaking a three-day negative streak The stock market finally moves up after days of losses. The S&P 500 index got back above the 1100 level closing at 1,106.24.
Ending well off the high of the session, the major indices put in a positive session Monday with a range of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gain.
The S&P 500, index that represents the broader market of stocks, closed above the 1,100 level Monday as trading around the resistance level continues.
HP announced 4th-Quarter and Fiscal earnings after the close. Mostly in line, could have a positive impact on Tuesdays market.
The Dollar continues to influence the stock market as stocks and the Dollar trade opposite direction to each other.
Gold price ramps-up making new highs on its trek to record territory. Monday, November 23, 2009
Stocks in the U.S. got hit on data and recession fear; Dollar strength caps recovery Today's game plan was to send stocks up but the Dollar, chip downgrades, and jobless initial claims data got in the way.
Stocks tumbled at the Open today amid a chip sector downgrade and jobless unemployment claims report. The Government reported unemployment first time claims at 505,000, unchanged from the previous week. Traders would have preferred a first time claims number under 500,000.
If that wasn't bad enough, the Dollar changed direction this morning, strengthening against most currencies, sending equities down and then back up off the lows of the session.
The S&P 500 index (measures the broader market) closed above the magical 1100 level Wednesday and closed below 1100 today (Thursday). Friday becomes an important trading day with hopes (of the Bulls) of a turning point for stocks- of course it all depends on what the Dollar does.
The major indexes (DJIA - S&P 500 - NASDAQ) posted a close down by near 1 percent for the broader market and 1.7 percent for the NASDAQ. Thursday, November 19, 2009
Unexpected downturn Thursday could be problematic if Fridays market is less than pristine. Shares of the U.S. stock market got slammed Thursday after a jobless report that still show high first time unemployment claims. Although the data came in better than most had expected, the core first time claims still is over 500,000.
Futures went south after the pre open data was released and stocks opened lower and never showed signs of a positive reversal.
Barometer model data pegged Thursday as a neutral to positive day with Friday being near positive. Now data suggests that Fridays market MUST be near perfect if we are to see a continuation of gains through the holidays.
Keep watch for any changes as we are teetering on the edge. Thursday, November 12, 2009
Market Barometer models keep the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) at negative Stocks ramp up as we get back into rally mode Thursday on a train of good economical data and statements by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway and Cisco Systems.
The latest downturn, of the past several weeks, may be over but Barometer models have yet to turn the negative BLI back to neutral. Data from the models indicate an S&P 500 level of near 1,080 before the change back to neutral can be made.
The models have predetermined triggers based on previous sessions and that level needs to be acquired before the models can release that particular trigger that govern the BLI. (1)This doesn't mean the BLI change will occur when this level is hit. There are other conditions that must be fulfilled. Models like to change during the last half-hour of trade as the close is one of the most important periods of the session.
This S&P 500 level is within range of tomorrows market and could be achieved. It will depend on the nonfarm payroll number and unemployment rate. This data is scheduled for released pre open Friday. Thursday, November 5, 2009- (1)updated
The Federal Reserve FOMC today keeps the interest rate near zero, saying that their intention for the Fed funds target to continue at 0 - 1/4 percent for an extended period of time. This statement could have an effect over bank growth and investors and traders today took some profits in the banking sector which help drive the broader market lower.
The Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) continues to show negative as data from the models suggest that the stock market could still move lower from present values. The Forecast maintains a positive outlook, there is still insufficient data to suggest that the March rally is over. The Forecast Bias is a key indicator [signal] to watch as if it turns negative, the Forecast may not be to far behind. Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Big rally puts a hold on further Forecast downgrades Yesterdays afternoon Barometer model-run changed the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) from neutral to negative. Data indicates that Thursday could be a pivotal session. Previous Barometer plots suggest, that in this latest leg-up of the March rally, Thursdays action could have decided the near-term fate of the market.
Data from models indicate that more positive days are needed to confidently move stocks higher for the next several weeks. If Fridays session is positive, the pre-close model-run most likely will reinsert the BLI's neutral stance.
If Fridays stock market ends neutral, mixed, or negative the negative BLI will stand. The Forecast continues to indicate positive- always keep an eye on the Forecast display. Thursday, October 29, 2009
Late day sell off as market could be ready for pullback Stocks tumble late in Wednesdays session as some believe a pullback is near, if not already started.
The failed first test of the S&P 500 1,100 level appears to have taken place early in Wednesday's morning session with stocks immediately moving lower throughout the session until stocks dive in the last hour of trade.
S&P 500 chart shows at least a small pullback or consolidation could happen at any time. The Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart also shows a new leg-up had failed.
Of course the market will do what it does, but, a pullback sure looks eminent. Keep watch on the forecast bug for any changes as traders and investors appear to be ready to pull the trigger. Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Texas Instruments reported third-quarter earnings beating street estimates TI reported 3rd-Quarter revenue of $2.88 billion, net income of $538 million, and EPS of $0.42 a share.
Texas Instruments earnings release said they were encouraged with the increase in demand for their products as their customers wind down inventory and increase product production levels. Share were higher in the after-hours session. Monday, October 19, 2009
Apple beats street estimates powered by iPhone Mac sales Their fourth-quarter results saw revenue of $9.87 billion, net profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per share.
Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 a year ago. With smashing computer sales and iPhone sales Apple stock ramps up in the after-hours... more on the Apples earnings report... Apple and TI results could send the market higher Tuesday. Monday, October 19, 2009
Stocks ramp up Monday on earnings as more companies with clout report Stocks ramp up on earnings as money comes in from the sidelines to power this rally higher. The major indexes posted near one percent gains Monday.
Texas Instruments and Apple reported earnings that beat estimates; share prices rise in after-hours trading. Monday, October 19, 2009
Cisco Systems to acquire Starent Networks for near $2.9 billion Cisco announced acquisition of Starent Networks, a mobile operation infrastructure provider.
The terms call for Cisco to pay $35 a Starent share in cash and assume equity awards. Read the press release... Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Intel reported strong results for the third quarter Intel reported after the close Tuesday revenue of $9.4 billion, operating income of $2.6 billion and net income of $1.9 billion, easily beating Street estimates.
Gross margin increased to 58 percent, with EPS of 33 Cents. Intel looks forward to the future with confidence in their execution, products and process... more on the release... Tuesday, October 13, 2009
U.S. stock market on a roll, adding more than four percent, as the gains keep rolling in Stocks were on a trek higher this week, adding more than four percent to the broader market major index.
Gold settles back to near the 1,050 Dollar level, while oil price continues the push higher.
Earnings season got underway this week with Alcoa reporting a great report, returning to profitability and strengthening their cash position. Next week more [earnings] reports as investors and traders most likely will pick up the volatility as the good and the bad news is released.
The Barometer Forecast continues to show positive with a neutral bias and neutral Barometer Leading Indicator. Friday, October 9, 2009
Alcoa earnings report: return to profitability and strengthens cash position Almost sure to help stocks Thursday, or maybe they'll sell the news, but better than expected results from the aluminum manufacture adds to the foundation of the economic recovery- it's a great sign that we are coming out of the recession.
Reporting better than expected results, the stock is up near 6-percent in after hours trade. Read Alcoa's press release... Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Big sell off to start the fourth quarter- volatility is back Hold on as we're in October and tomorrow is the Payroll report where we get the news about the unemployment rate and jobs lost for September. Its sure to be a bumpy ride but next week after things settle down? we'll take a look to see if this is the pullback everybody has been waiting on.
Later on this evening the Maps department will have more information that we can use for modeling... Meanwhile the forecast continues at positive.
We now have a more current chart that shows the progress of the pullback. It's to early to tell how deep the pullback will be but the chart gives you an idea of its progress.
Go to the Barometer Leading Indicator Detail Chart and click the chart to launch the advance version. Thursday, October 1, 2009
Broader market rests while tech found M&A for a catalysts Dell computer company announced it would acquire Perot Systems, an IT service and consulting business, for near 3.9 billion. Share price of Perot Systems jump while Dell moves lower on the news.
The Dow lost 1/2 percent, the S&P 500 was off by 0.4 percent, and the NASDAQ had a slight gain of 0.2 percent. Monday, September 21, 2009
This new leg up of the past two weeks could be nearing an end Stocks cannot go up forever without a pullback. Data shows this latest ramping of the stock market could be at an end, but not for the March rally.
The march 2009 rally could extend out for years. But pullbacks and consolidation periods are very necessary for the health of the markets. A new chart study indicates that stocks have run-up to fast to quickly and that a pullback most likely is near- or at least a long consolidation period.
The counter to all of this is, everybody is looking for a pullback so that those that were left behind in the rally can get in at a lower level- but we all know that what we expect and get are most always two different things... more on the new chart study... Wednesday, September 16, 2009
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