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U.S. stocks under pressure again with the latest EU
state in the Euro Area standing up to be counted as the crisis in the Eurozone
continues.
Eurozone worries just keep coming with
the latest arrival, Spain. This whole
crisis seems to be scripted with global markets
reacting to each headline. You can almost predict what the next session is
going to be based on the pervious sessions.
Monday's market volume was light
indicating not a real negative mood as buyers just wont bid stocks higher on a
bad news day.
The Dow ends near 1/2 percent lower, S&P 500 and
NASDAQ ended nearly 1-percent lower on a low volume session.
Monday, November 14,
2011
Stocks rally Friday putting the Eurozone concerns aside, for now. With the
central bank stepping in indicating states wont fail and the other positive news
out of the Euro Area, U.S. stocks ramp up in trade Friday.
Thursday U.S. Stocks made an effort to
recover some of Wednesdays losses, but was only able to eke out about a third of
Wednesdays meltdown. NASDAQ posted positive but made virtually no gain
into its almost 4 percent loss Wednesday. The financial sector and tech
stocks, in general, lagged holding back any further gains.
Markets were fearing a contagion from
Greece to Italy to the rest of the Euro Area, that left unchecked could
eventually spread into the other EU economies.
Better vibrations from Greece and
Italy had the U.S. stock market set for a positive open as most participants
were looking for a rally back from the depths of Wednesdays plunge. The
banking sector and tech stocks held the Dow and S&P 500 to a modest gain
Thursday.
A slightly improving jobs picture with
new jobless claims under 400,000 -chart- and
Cisco Systems earnings guidance set the tone Thursday along with some better
news out of Europe had the pre market ready to rally Thursday.
Thursday, November 10,
2011- update 11-11-11, 12:18p
Fear Of Eurozone Breakup With
Italy Center Stage Sends U.S. Stocks Plunging Wednesday
Talk of Euro Area dissolution or even reconfiguring sent traders to push the
panic button Wednesday as the major averages dropped nearly 4-percent.
Ever get the feeling this whole EU thing is staged- scripted. When Greece
finally was almost put on the backburner then suddenly Italy 10 year bond pushes
past 7-percent causing enormous concerns.
If it wasn't just out of the question, you would think Europe is scripting this
whole thing for some advantage that has yet to be discovered.
The forecast currently at caution was very close to an upgrade to
positive after the
S&P 500 [chart]
was able to demonstrate its ability to trade above the Summer trading range.
The Market Barometer Models have the capability to learn from data gathered and
how the markets react to news and events.
It wont be real easy to get back to an upgrade anytime soon. In fact the
forecast indicators (BLI and forecast Bias) are now showing signs of weakness
and could be lowered depending on how deep this latest rout goes.
Wednesday, November 9,
2011
Stocks Reversed Morning
Losses, Trended Higher Into Positive Territory On Less Bad News
Traders were looking for a negative
open Monday on continuing turmoil in Europe.
After a sizeable loss in the early
going, equities reversed direction shortly before 2:00 pm est., trended higher
to close with the Dow above 12,000 and the S&P 500 closing at 1,261.12 with the
tech heavy NASDAQ closing positive as well.
The European Union still has control over the markets with Greece concerns
waning, somewhat, as Italy's debt problems now becoming a focus for trading.
Earnings still ongoing but continues to take a backseat to all the turmoil in
Euroland.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Rally Sends U.S. Stock Market
Indexes Higher By 2 To 3 Percent
EU debt deal last night and friendly
economical data (GDP
and
Jobless claims) along with earnings finally got
the U.S. stock market engine roaring.
The afternoon Market Barometer
model-run upgraded the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to positive, signaling
a more bullish outlook ahead for the markets. A BLI of positive indicates
a good chance that the summer sideways market has ended with lofty S&P 500
target of 1400, as some forecasters have it. All this is great news if
nothing goes wrong to derail the Bull from ramping ahead into 2012.
U.S. stock pre market futures were
already signaling rally and with GDP coming in as forecasted and not lower got
Shorts and non Short buyers ramping stocks higher Thursday. Fridays early
futures indicate a flat mixed open but will change as the evening wears on.
Thursday, October
27, 2011
Stocks Ended Mixed Ahead Of Earnings Season As EU Concerns Are On The
Backburner, For Now
After last weeks two percent plus gain in the stock market and Monday's three
percent rally, investors and traders look past EU troubles for now and
concentrate on earnings starting with Alcoa.
The Barometer forecast bias was upgraded to positive as data from the models
suggest a good chance of rallying out of the trading range if earnings doesn't
quash buyers. The forecast continues at negative but with a bias positive
we could see an upgrade of the forecast to caution if earnings don't slam
momentum.
Alcoa reported
mixed results but had an upbeat outlook that some say is questionable.
Alcoa Chairman and CEO Klaus Kleinfeld sees a slower pace of growth in the last
half of 2011 but reaffirmed long term forecast of doubling aluminum demand by
2020, he said they have more cash, less debt and is focused on growth.
Asia Pacific markets were lower Wednesday setting the tone for the U.S. open
into negative territory. A lot can happen overnight and a better look at
the pre market an hour out from the open will give a better judge of the U.S.
open.
Tuesday, October
11, 2011
Data Wasn't Enough For
Traders As Tech Stocks End Negative While The Broader Market Advanced In A Late
Day Rally
Data wasn't enough for tech
stocks but seemed ok for the Dow and the broader market to advances. Tech
NASDAQ stocks struggled for most of the session, ending down at the close.
Much improved
initial jobless claims and a
second-quarter GDP couldn't keep traders in
tech stocks today. Tech gave up the rally and added to yesterdays loss.
The broader market made a recovery in late afternoon trade to end well into
positive territory but off the morning high.
Data improved the pre market
futures and carried over to the start, but things degraded from there.
Traders most likely will push stocks
higher Friday so that they can record a better looking quarters end.
Thursday, September
29, 2011
The Fed Concluded A Two Day Meeting On Monetary
Policy
The target for the Fed funds rate will remain unchanged through mid 2013 as they
stated in the previous committee meeting.
The Federal Reserves mandate, as Congress
established, is to foster maximum employment and price stability.
The Committee said it expected a pickup in the pace of economic recovery over
the coming quarters but stated it anticipates the unemployment rate to decline
gradually over time.
A looming statement that markets will have to deal with, is, that the
FOMC sees
significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in
global financial markets.
The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle over the coming
quarters at acceptable levels.
Read more on the changes to policy including Operation Twist...
Wednesday, September
21, 2011
Thursday Has Economical Data That Could Make Or
Break The Three Day Rally
Good news from Europe today about Greece debt default and a general sense that
whatever happens to Greece is now priced into stocks.
But on Thursday morning we will get
Consumer Price Index data and a read on jobs.
In the jobs arena,
Jobless New Claims has been very stubborn and
disappointing.
New Jobless Claims Chart shows job creation
could come under more pressure in the following months.
A bad jobs number tomorrow could cause the rally to fade, fast.
The Forecast continues at negative.
Wednesday, September
14, 2011
The Fed FOMC will meet in September to discuss monetary policy change
It's no secret that the economy is ailing. All
the effort put forth, so far, has done little to spark a real economic recovery.
The extended Fed meeting in September, now two days,
will be the forum for any policy change.
The market is expecting something from the Federal
Reserve to help put life back in the recovery. Markets anticipate one way
the Fed could do this is by manipulating Treasury yields.
A process called Operation Twist could be used to
raise short-term yields and lower long-term yields, simultaneously, flattening
out the yield curve, by selling at the short end and buying at the long end.
Whether the Fed implements Operation Twist or some
other process is yet to be determined, or at least publicized.
The markets are expecting something from the Federal
Reserve and if not satisfied volatility could pick up substantially.
Wednesday, September
7, 2011 00:00
Hurricane Irene could Curtail Some Market Operations
Monday
All eyes are on hurricane Irene as
she makes her way up the East Coast.
The storm is expected to reach lower
Manhattan on Sunday. Flooding is expected in and around the New York Stock
Exchange Saturday- Sunday timeframe.
Floor operations could be curtailed
on Monday depending on the damage to the facility and general area.
NYSE trading operations are expected
to be operational through the NYSE Euronext electronic hybrid market.
Depending on the damage to the
building, surrounding area, and the ability for employees to return, floor
trading, open outcry operations, could be limited.
General Statement 001-
Saturday, August 27, 2011- corrected
Stocks Add To A Three Day
Rally Ahead Of Chief Bernanke's Speech Friday In Jackson Hole
The equity market, Wednesday, added
to the three day rally with traders strategizing how the Fed will respond to the
latest events and data.
The Fed Chief will attend and give a
speech Friday on the U.S. economic recovery to the Central Bankers attending the
Jackson Hole symposium.
It is widely expected that Bernanke
will not announce a QE3. But markets around the world will be looking for
hints to how he may or may not adjust monetary policy based on more recent data
and events.
The Market Barometer Forecast
continues at negative as models indicate volatility in the markets could
continue for the near-term.
The higher risk, however, continues
to be on the downside for the S&P 500 as markets are continuing to wonder if
there will be a response from the Government.
Until some sort of plan is put out
there for economists and marketeers to assimilate, stocks could continue to be
volatile with the ultimate risk being even lower moves for the major indexes.
Wednesday, August 24,
2011
Slow Session As Markets Come
Off A 'Volatility-High' Two Weeks And Now Appear To Be Consolidating:
It feels like
we have a consolidation going on
after a very wild couple of weeks. If a bottom is forming, consolidation
at around S&P 500 1200 mark could make sense.
Manufacturing prices Jump 0.2 percent in July
with the core price (less food and energy) rising 0.4 percent.
The core index blew by estimates.
Futures pointed to a positive start
and stocks did rise, in morning trade, but began drifting lower throughout most
of the session. By the noon hour, the major indexes reported negative but
managed to end mixed.
Another look at inflation tomorrow
with the important
consumer inflation index (CPI). Although
at this point of the Fed game plan, inflation shouldn't be a problem for traders
as the Fed will keep the target for the Fed funds rate at low levels for a
couple of years.
Wednesday, August 17,
2011
U.S.
Stock Market Futures Sink Amid The S&P Rating Downgrade
Asian stocks are selling off, continuing years of decline. Most Asian
pacific exchanges reporting losses at 10:12 pm ET Sunday, as traders react to
the uncertainty of exactly what the outcome of the U.S. rating downgrade will
have on markets.
U.S. futures are in negative territory and traders can expect a neutral to
negative start Monday.
Uncertainty abounds and a new leg down for U.S. stocks is conceivable over the
short term.
The best that one can expect is a very tarnished outlook of investors that must
deal will the markets.
The U.S. Government hasn't got the message yet as political wrangling, this
weekend, is pointing to continued opposition and the blame game over the turmoil
that our economy and budget deficit is in.
That is why S&P made it clear that 'political risk' is a major contributor to
the downgrade.
Outlook and future for the U.S. economy and stock market can only be determined
by the decisions and events that unfold over the next weeks and months.
The forecast for the short and long term is negative.
Sunday, August 7,
2011- updated
Standard & Poor's Rating Agency Lowered The U.S. Long Term Rating To AA+ From
AAA
S&P released, through their Global Credit Portal, a
research update outlining the downgrade of the United States of America long
term credit rating, a downgrade from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook.
Their research updated paper stated the reason for
the downgrade was based on 'political risks' and rising debt burden on the
economy.
Impact of this downgrade cannot be judged at this
time as all markets are closed for the weekend. Sunday evening when the
Asian markets open, a better idea of how this will impact U.S. markets can be
determined.
This may or may not be a big thing, in of itself,
immediately, but it just is another blemish in the ability of the U.S.
Government to control the budget and the economy.
Look for a neutral to negative start for the U.S. stock
market Monday.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Debt Deal Passes The Senate
While Stocks Continue To Sell Off
Debt deal was sent to the Senate for
a vote and passed, President signs into law.
Personal income and spending report showed
workers making more, spending less.
Earnings guidance takes a backseat
to politics and continued economic disappointments.
Debt package a done deal but the
stock market continues lower, ending the S&P 500 index at the lower support
level of the March trading range.
Models will watch for support penetration during
Wednesday's market.
S&P 500 is
still in the trading range ballpark but it did drop slightly below
mid March closing low. Tomorrow's market will be important.
Tuesday, August 2,
2011
The U.S. Stock Market Seems To Be Oblivious To The Debt Ceiling Drop-Dead Date
The U.S. debt ceiling [and budget] continues to be a stalemate in the Government
with no deal on the horizon.
The stock market has priced in zero chance of a deal not being agreed
upon by August 2 when the barrowing authority reaches the current debt ceiling.
The reason for that is pretty evident; the consequences of default is way to
high for a political move like that.
Some Government operations shutting down is one thing but the U.S. credit rating
downgrade from Aaa (Moody's) and AAA (S&P) would cause a major financial
meltdown of the likes which we haven't seen.
The Treasury maintains August 2, 2011 as the date the limit on borrowing would
be reached and even if they could somehow find a way to extend the date or come
up with more funding that might not go over well with Moody's or S&P. If
Washington wants a chance at keeping their jobs, it would behoove them to act
soon.
Friday, July 15, 2011
No QE3
Anytime Soon News Set U.S. Stock Prices And Oil Lower:
Earnings
guidance,
Producer prices, retail sales data, and
unemployment initial claims was in focus
for Thursday, July 14, 2011, as well
as Fed Chief Bernanke testimony.
No immediate QE3 [news] set stock prices and oil back into negative territory as
markets are focused on headlines as
stocks continue trading in SPX 1250 - 1350 range...
Wholesale finished goods [prices] declined in June,
energy prices fell nearly 3 percent in June. Unemployment new claims
improves slightly but chart still unsettling.
WTI oil
prices continue in a trading range from the low/ mid $90's to the
upper end of $98 bbl.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Disappointing Payroll Jobs
Number Tanked The U.S. Stock Market Early But Made An Attempt At A Comeback
Huge
disappointment this morning with the anemic jobs number, sending futures sharply
lower. Jobs data and the economy as well as the U.S. debt was the focus
for Friday.
A disappointing jobs number reset the markets lower with buyers sidelined in the
early going Friday. Major indexes reported negative results today but were
able to rally back from the low of the session.
Job growth in June disappointed, frustrating the recovery
and traders.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Wednesdays models perk up after days of churning
Barometer Models are now starting to churn.
Any more positive ness in the U.S. Stock Market and the Barometer BLI could go
to neutral. But lets refocus to after the Fourth holiday when trading
desks get back to full strength. But if the positive momentum keeps up, we
might have to rethink the whole summertime scenario.
Wednesday evening model run shows model data for the
forecast bias "perking up" somewhat. This latest positive ness might
change once traders are at full strength after the holiday. It isn't out
of the question for stocks to continue in flat mode, churning sideways.
Keep watch on the 'bug' for change and
mobile users watch the Chalkboard on your high-end devices.
The forecast continues at caution.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Stocks Make It Three In A Row Led By BofA And The Financial Sector
Bank of America announced it has
come to term with nearly all Countrywide mortgage issues [8.5b settlement]
sending the banking stocks higher in the pre market.
Greece austerity measures approval
saw trading react somewhat subdued to crossing headlines.
Bank stocks led the stock market
higher on less concern over sector risk as BofA settles most Countrywide
mortgage issues.
Low volume three day rally ahead of
end of quarter with light volume expected until after the Fourth holiday.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Greek Bailout Deal [News] Help Stocks Cut Losses Sending NASDAQ Shares Into
Positive Territory
Stocks immediately slipped into
negative territory on continuing fear that the economy is slowing more than was
first anticipated.
On the minds
of traders was
unemployment initial claims,
GDP revision yesterday by the Fed, and
WTI oil
prices.
The Dow Jones
industrials, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ took a beating early on as continuing bad
economical news hit markets early. But as fate would have it, the Dow
Jones index and the S&P 500 index was able to reclaim most of the loss, while
tech shares surged back to end higher by over 1/2 percent.
All this
action in the markets was on low volume as the Greek European Union bailout news
helped markets to recover. Still on everybody's mind was the
Federal Reserve revision to GDP, the unemployment rate,
and inflation. A major disappointment early on today was
jobless initial claims that saw a continuing jobs market
problem in the U.S. as shown by the claims chart.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Stocks
Reverse Six Days Of Selling, Regaining Some Lost Ground
The U.S. economic recovery and how
the market will do over the summer period was the focal point for traders and
how today's market ends may be extremely important to how stocks will perform
over summer.
In addition to the U.S. economic
recovery, the EU economy as well as unemployment in the U.S. was a prime focus
for the session today. The regular session saw the major stock indexes
hold gains in a short-term oversold condition.
A disappointing unemployment new claims report has
the market wondering about the recovery. We saw the market escape an
almost curtain downgrade Friday by Thursdays positive ness. Anymore, say
tomorrow and early next week, downside could produce a cascade lower this
summer.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
New Week, Old Theme, Stocks Moderately Lower On Sparse
Data
Early Futures saw a flat open but once the market
actually opened it fell moderately with a couple positive bounces, but at the
end of the day stocks lost ground, all blamed on recovery data, especially jobs
data last week.
Slow data this week except for Fed
talk that could lead markets as traders look for direction. WTI crude oil
prices continue testing the $100 mark with prices slipping to around the $98.78
mark.
There seems to be an economical
recover slowdown and with all the problems, jobs seem to be the big stickler
that has traders perplexed.
Monday, June 6, 2011
There's Bad News And Good News For The Stocks Market
Good news is, trading has caught up to the forecast.
Bad news, many where caught not prepared for today's sell off.
The ADP report finally got traders
attention, as futures were already under pressure before the regular session.
A one day event doesn't bring on the pullback but its a start- need to see where
we go over the next two days. Unemployment initial claims tomorrow and
nonfarm payroll Friday is sure to be a focal point. EU, on again off
again, debt trouble [news] and home prices are an additional concern as well as
talk of QE3.
Stocks took a hit Wednesday as jobs,
or lack off, finally get a reaction from the market.
WTI oil price is testing the $100 mark again
and if support doesn't hold, WTI price could drop back to the low 90's for
another support test.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Traders Alert- New High-End Mobile Display
Market Barometer has a 'Market On Mobile' beta .mobi
site so that you can display pertinent information, like the
chalkboard, on your
mobile device. You can go directly to Market-Barometer.mobi site and get
the info you need without the hassle of a desktop or laptop.
On your mobile device, go to Market-Barometer.com
and click on the mobile icon on select pages, like the
chalkboard.
The beta .mobi site is still in the works but the
chalkboard will contain any pertinent forecast information.
High-end personal technology devises such as the
iPhone, iPad, Android, and trader platforms with internet connection can load up
the Forecast chalkboard to see the latest model strategy.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011-
updated- 10-11-11, 11:46p ET
Stocks Weren't Able To Hold Positive Ground As Traders
Continue Yesterdays Selling.
Futures had a
rebound insight from yesterdays selling but it was short-lived as the focus
turned back to the growing EU debt problem, U.S. housing data and how that
related to the U.S. recovery.
WTI Oil
price continues to test the $100 mark as stocks tried to settle for a
mixed close after Mondays selling spree. U.S. stock market was unable to
hold positive ground and moved lower as tech selling was to much for the broader
market to overcome.
Barometer model data is still indicating a lower move for
stocks in the summer months but can't rule out another short-term,
very short-term rally before the almost certain pullback that is overdue.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Can Stocks Go Up
Forever Or Is This A Last Gasp.
Stocks do what they do best in
difficult times, they do the unexpected. Earnings season is, for the most
part, done and markets have reacted as they normally do, traders will sell the
bad , buy the good, and ignore (sell) the deadbeats.
As we enter the summer period it's
normally the dead season, hence the term 'sell in May and go away'. Even
though the
extended forecast indicates negative, that is
for the sane trader and investor but until the market catches up with reality it
will continue its climb higher.
The S&P 500 index is testing support and it appears to be a good test but
Thursdays market could tell more about direction.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Major Indexes Eased Off The High Of The Session Closing With A Nice Gain
Stocks started the day in negative
territory but reversed direction around midday trending up to positive
territory.
Unemployment new claims and
manufacturing
prices as well as earnings/ outlook
was the focus
for the session. The U.S. stock Market had a poor start but recovered
midday and trended up in afternoon trade to post a substantial gain.
It just gets worse for Cisco Systems [CSCO]
stock as it continues its freefall and hopefully Cisco's problems wont be a
contagion to other big caps as Cisco continues to struggle with its outlook.
Producer prices headline number rose
0.8 percent in April while the core price maintained a 0.3 advance.
Jobless [unemployment] initial claims dropped 44,000 but the
chart still shows trouble ahead for the jobs market
unless next weeks number is comparable to this weeks data.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Three day rally is underway defying models.
Earnings are good, economical data so-so, unrest in the Middle East continues,
and the European credit problems just don't go a way, as well as the U.S.
economic recovery is inching along with housing pulling against it. Not to
mention that the summer slowdown is near- models see the months ahead as
negative, fundamentally speaking. But traders deny the fundamentals and
have not begun the selling process- just yet- for whatever reason
they may have.
Data in the models clearly indicate a negative market, but it just hasn't hit
home with traders. As long as there is money to be put to work and
earnings continue to show companies are making it and accumulating it, stocks
will go up until that magic moment when traders feel its time to go a way.
Smart investors and traders have been building cash
a little at a time as the days wear on- if you haven't, don't get caught pulling
money out when the market is in free fall. Watch the forecast for changes.
The forecast as of May 10, 2011 is caution. Remember, always be prepared
for the unexpected, because it will happen.
How do you build cash is a question that is always
asked but never can be fully answered because everybody's situation is
different. You need to decide what it is you want from your investments/
trades and develop a model that can assist in maintaining a portfolio. If
you don't know how to do that, get help from a registered financial advisor.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Commodities Slammed Along
With Stocks Ahead Of The All Important Jobs Report
Equities got off to a bad start on
jobs data and it really never got any better.
Unemployment new claims and earnings was in focus
as well as commodity prices. Bin Laden death and U.S. operations was a
minor news item for markets today, the economy was a major focus as the day wore
on.
Oil got slammed dropping below $100 bbl as gold and silver prices dive.
U.S. Dollar rises as Euro and Yen drop. Stock Market moves decisively
lower on anxiety over Fridays job creation and unemployment-rate report.
Dollar, Oil,
Gold, Silver prices drove stocks ultimately lower.
Bad times on The Street, but don't count the market out
just yet.
Price of oil peaks above
$100 bbl in the after hours market.
Huge increase in jobless claims shows possible job market
trouble- chart.
Price of WTI plummets on
economics.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Mostly A Negative Session Leads The Market Barometer
Models To Downgrade The Bias To Neutral.
Earnings,
unemployment initial claims, inflation report, and oil prices was in focus
for the session.
The afternoon Barometer model run changed the Forecast Bias to neutral as market
conditions continue to deteriorate. Even though the Dow, S&P 500, and
NASDAQ indexes reported improving conditions, the afternoon model run changed
the Forecast Bias to neutral from positive.
Stocks recover the days loss but not before forecast
models change the Forecast Bias to neutral.
Manufacturing prices rose 0.7 percent in March.
Jobless initial claims spiked last week but chart still
showing improving employment condition in U.S. economy.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Oil Prices Surge above $113 Mark As unrest and uncertainty dominates outlook
Oil prices (WTI)
and other crude oil spot prices have risen significantly this year partly
because of the disruption of oil exports from Libya.
The
continuing unrest in Libya and other North African and Middle Eastern countries
has led to the higher oil prices. The Energy Information Administration
(EIA) raised its forecast for the average cost of crude oil to refiners to $105
per barrel.
WTI
prices has surged past the March forecast and it is expected that the EIA to
upgrade price forecast in mid-April.
With
continued unrest in the region price forecast upgrade is likely. The EIA
is likely to reforecast higher prices of crude for 2011 and 2012.
WTI oil price sells off but rebounded Wednesday as
analysts ask 'last gasp before collapse'?
Friday, April 8, 2011- updated
4/13/2011, 10:37p ET.
It Would Appear That There Is
No Stopping The Bull Run As Stocks Are Up Again Continuing Its Third Year
ADP jobs report, unemployment new
claims, and payroll/ unemployment-rate, as well as the end of the first quarter
trading rebalancing.
Stocks continue to rally with
jobless new claims tomorrow and Fridays all
important
payroll data where we find out just how many
jobs were created in March and the unemployment-rate.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Stocks Run Slightly Lower, Losing momentum, After Three
Day's Of Rallying, As Consolidation Appears To Be Setting In
Libya, Japan, M&A (the only good
news), and the ongoing EU credit problem was the focus with oil prices, once
again, popping up on Mideast turmoil.
Stocks rested after a three session
rally as traders climb the wall of worry's. The major averages posted a
slight loss as buyers and sellers came to terms.
Model data continues (for now) to
indicate that we may not be out of the woods yet. Several more sessions of
neutral to positive action could turn the Forecast aground. The Forecast
continues at negative with improving metrics in the models.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Stocks Take Another dive at the open but end well off
session lows
Radiation leak worries at Japan's
nuclear plants was the focus that had the Futures market selling off today.
Stocks opened in sell off mode as the Dow neared a 300 point loss.
If anything can trigger a
correction, this could be it as every bad thing that could happen, has.
But trading reversed as uncertainty wore off and was helped along with
encouraging words from the Fed.
Stocks ended in negative territory
but well off the lows of the session. "It could have been a disaster
scenario in the U.S. market, but just wasn't to be".
The Market Barometer post open
model-run did change the Forecast Bias to negative as a precursor to a Forecast
change to negative if conditions continue to degrade.
The Fed said they will maintain interest rate target
between 0 and 1/4 percent and said that the recovery is on firm footing.
Forecast models today indicate that the long awaited correction could begin in
earnest if worries over Japan and the Mideast continue.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Broader Market Of Stocks
Advanced Led By Large Cap Stocks
Traders were looking for a positive
session as the market continues to edge higher but in today's session tech
lagged.
Personal
income/ spending report and earnings was in focus
as
well as oil prices. Oil prices sunk back down into the mid to upper 90's
as traders gear-up for the next move in the March market.
The market continues to reward traders that are in stocks with another advance
as the two month rally, of the year, continues.
Personal Income and Outlays data shows worker income rose
1 percent in January.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Libya worries Deepen While Oil Prices Surge Taking The
Stock Market Lower For A second Day
Traders were looking for a neutral
flat start and got a mostly negative day as the Middle
East unrest, specifically Libya, and earnings was the focus
for the session.
The Forecast Models indicated that today could be an important session for the
stock market. All eyes were focused on the close as
The Market Barometer afternoon model run changed the Bias
to neutral from positive.
Libya is the latest worry in the
middle East for traders as stocks continued moving lower from yesterdays sell
off. Oil prices skyrocket causing more worries over how the economic
recovery can proceed with inflation on a distant horizon and with oil prices
surging higher as more Middle East countries could fall to the unrest.
The afternoon Market Barometer model run changed the Bias to neutral from
positive. More worries are
being conjured up as Libya's unrest appears to be spreading to other countries
in the Mideast region taking oil prices even higher and stock markets lower.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Oil prices ramp up after sliding most of February, amid
Mideast worries, taking stocks along for the ride
Stocks were sluggish most of the
morning, ramping into positive territory in late morning trade, as oil prices
began to improve and move higher, on Mideast worries as geopolitical turmoil
spreads.
Two key economical data points were
released today that gauge the economical recovery.
The consumer
price index (inflation gauge) rose and
jobless first time claims (unemployment) rose as well.
Even though last weeks initial claims rose, the initial claims chart continues
to show a job market recovery.
The small cap
market of stocks posted a nice gain today, while mixed economical
data-points and geopolitical worries saw the major indexes eke out a small gain.
Consumer inflation data (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in January
while
The employment pictures (chart)
continues to show improvement.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Traders buy stocks like there's no tomorrow, leaving only
five sessions in red this year
Earnings and
deal making was the focus
today as
well as the continuing Egyptian unrest crises.
It would appear that nothing can get in front of this fright train that just
keeps going. With 25 sessions completed, five were posted as negative, six
as mixed, and fourteen as positive.
Today the Dow led stock higher as even China's tightening of monetary policy had
little or no effect over the steaming U.S. stock market. Earnings are good
and traders might just feel fine in driving stocks higher with no end in sight.
Traders believe that this positive ness will continue, at least through earnings
season.
The U.S. stock market will run out of steam sooner
or later, the question is
will the stock market rally continue.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Steady as she goes, stocks continue the march higher
The Market Barometer close model changed the
Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to neutral from positive last Monday, January
31, 2011.
Egypt unrest concerns and a not-so-good jobs
report had little, if any, effect on stocks. If we didn't have the Egypt
worries and if the jobs report was more in line with expectations, we might have
had a ramping stock market instead of the inching along, as we have seen. One thing is real clear. A pullback is due
and it will happen, sooner or later.
The BLI will stay at neutral for the time being.
The forecast at CAUTION with a
NEUTRAL BLI and a POSITIVE
bias indicates continued upside movement can be expected for the short
term.
Remember. Forecasts are
good for market fundamentals; news can and will change market direction; forecasting cannot predict events with 100% certainty.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Traders Sent Stocks Higher After Bernanke Talk And Ahead
Of The Payroll Jobs Report Friday.
Egypt unrest, jobless new claims,
productivity report, and earnings set the tone for a flat session.
On deck is the all important nonfarm jobs report which shows how many jobs were
created or lost for the month, as well as the unemployment-rate which is
expected to drop slightly. U.S. stocks are overdue for a pullback
and if the jobs report comes in short of expectations, stocks could make a
beeline to negative territory.
Last Monday the BLI was downgraded to neutral in anticipation of a pullback.
The BLS released the productivity and cost report for Q-4
2010 and revisions to Q-3 2010.
The Government reported initial
jobless claims- unemployment- fell, keeping hopes alive for a continuing
improving employment picture.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Earnings Took Hold Of Stocks Today, Sending Them Up For A
Second Week
As goes January, so goes the year. They say.
So if the next two weeks goes as the first two, that saying could translate into
a very profitable year in the stock market.
Earnings outlook
and the Consumer Price (inflation) report was the focus
today, as well as retail sales data.
Starting the year off on the right foot for investors as stocks continue the
trip higher as traders pooh pooh the slow, most days, snails pace- traders like
volatility. Some say we can look for more gain in the weeks and months to
come but most marketeers are looking for a pullback.
Retail sales rose in December as consumers continue to buy stuff, helping the
recovering economy.
Core CPI:
shelter, airline tickets, medical, and apparel prices rose in December; while
recreation, house furnishings, and communication prices slipped in December.
Headline CPI: Gas prices at the pump inflated
consumer prices in December- food helped.
JPMorgan beat most expectations but didn't move Futures but helped move stocks
higher in the regular session.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Equity Market Ends Mixed
While Traders Await The Nonfarm Payroll Report
The broader market slipped in trading today while
tech stocks continue to outperforming, as has been the case for the past two
years.
Jobless first
time claims and earnings was in focus
for the session Thursday. Friday most likely will be a big day for
the markets as job creation and unemployment rate will be the hot ticket for the
session. Nonfarm payroll report for December is scheduled for release at
8:30a ET during the pre market and could cause significant volatility when
markets open at 9:30a.
Unemployment initial claims continues to improve
even though last weeks number increased by 18,000.
The initial claims chart shows a definite trend lower that
leads analysts to believe the job market is strengthening.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
NASDAQ Led The Stock Market
To A Mixed Close
With North and South Korea concerns
in the news, the EU continuing debt problems, a lack of positive or negative
sentiment, and not to mention being this is a shortened holiday week with
Christmas Saturday, many traders were on or leaving for holiday.
Short week saw
Monday end flat with a mixed touch. Model data continues to indicate a
mostly positive market going into the new year, albeit an inch at a time.
The Bush tax cut extension was signed into law which
could help markets over the next couple of sessions.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Markets go flat again as U.S.
stocks posted mixed results
With a reasonable jobless new claims
number this morning and a good looking chart that spells out jobs recovery in
our future, stocks went underwater for most of the day but as usual climbed back
to end mixed with the broader market and tech making gains.
Unemployment
initial claims and earnings outlook
was the focus
for the session along with the Bush tax cut extension.
Jobless initial claims chart continues to show progress in
the jobs market.
New claims data was about the only economic data today which showed that the
jobs market could be on the mend. Traders want more pointed data, the kind
that just pops out at you, showing a bigger new claims drop. But some
economist believe that wont happen and that this recovery will be one with a
high unemployment rate for some time to come.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
About Time Cisco- Cisco Delivers Earnings
Cisco Systems reported fourth quarter and fiscal
2011 earnings this afternoon. Q4 net sales was $11.2 billion; Q4 net
income $1.2 billion GAAP, $2.2 billion non GAAP; Q4 EPS $0.22 GAAP, $0.40
non GAAP...
Traders, analysts, and the media all want to know
where is the retail investor. The retail investor is probably
reluctant to get back into a market where you can lose 16 percent on a single
stock before the market even opens, just because traders feel its real
beneficial to sell on some news that is not as bad as it might seems.
The theme, they say, for retail investing is to get
into the market for the long haul. Others will say get into options or trade in
the after hours and take care of business. Retail investors don't, for the
most part, trade in the after-hours market nor do they go the options route.
You probably can kiss the retail investor goodbye as
it's not just Cisco that we are talking about, its the entire volatile market,
where it can drop 1,000 Dow points in minutes. Who wants to subject their
savings/ investments to this volatility and a market, that in the past twelve
years, has gone basically nowhere and is projection for the next five years to
do the same.
The comeback by market gurus is-- what are you
going to do with your money. You can't put in savings or CD's, they say,
that's way to low of a rate for an investments. Real-estate - bonds?
Maybe. Money managers, no, no, no. knee jerk reaction is to say no
to that because with this latest round of managers gone wild and to jail because
of ponzi scheme and the like, you just have no idea who you can trust these
days- Government watch dogs are of little help. So what is a retail
investor to do.
For the next several years, or longer, think about
investing in Debt. DEBT you say.
Maybe the best thing for a retail investor is to
invest in your own debt. Think about it. If you are lucky enough to
have some cash on hand or had put aside cash from the stock market and you are
reluctant to hand it over to the market, you might consider paying off debt.
After you have acquired an emergency fund and you
have the opportunity to, lets say pay off your car note, as an example, you
would free up the monthly payment and repay your cash account with a
self-imposed interest payment. It might take months or years but at least
you would be reducing debt and paying yourself back with interest.
If you can stick to a budget you might be better off than what stocks
can give you in return, especial if the market continues its track sideways or
even down. You'll end up with a bill paid off, cash paid back plus
interest and you'll have extra $ at the end of each month. Repeat that by
paying off other debt and you could end up with a triple digits return-
yes its your money but consider the alternative of losing it in the stock
market.
Bottom line is you can gamble that the market is
going to be higher by triple digit percentage points over the next five years or
you can, if your budget minded, pay down debt and be in a much better position
going forward, especially if you use the extra Dollars to pay yourself back.
We are not intending to talk the markets down but if
you are real fed up with the stock market this may be a viable alternative.
If you go this route make sure you consult with a financial planner to make sure
of all your options and tax consequence.
Thursday, November 11, 2010-
updated 8/10/2011
Stock Market Rallies On The
Feds Economic Stimulus Plan Of Buying Treasuries
Stocks rallied out of the gate this
morning on the back of the Feds stimulus plan of purchasing treasuries, as well
as the election results where the Republican party pretty much overwhelmed the
Democrats. Stocks leveled out trade near Dow 11,400 for the remainder of
the session with a step up at the close as the Dow and the broader market gained
two percent.
QE2, election
results, jobs data, and earnings outlook
was the focus
for the session. Traders disregarded the
jobless new claims report this morning, as the
U.S. stock market, along with global markets, rallied on the Feds economic
stimulus plan. U.S. stocks ends Thursday's session at the high ahead of
Fridays
payroll unemployment report.
If positive momentum continues, traders can look
forward to a Forecast change to positive which would indicate a continued move
higher for the equity market. There is some danger ahead if the payroll
number is off the market my a substantial number.
Jobless initial claims rose last week as the unemployment
channel is still alive.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
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