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DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST |
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S&P 500 Forecast Model Study
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Each of the Market Barometer models feed data into various charts and graphs for a visual of the model's metrics, the internal data collected during a model run. Occasionally, we like to upload charts and graphs to the website for our users to visualize just what the model data indicates. Sometimes a picture is work- well you know... One of the graphs we will present here today is the Barometer Forecast Bias graph which takes its feed from the 444's model. The 444's model is responsible for determining forecast changes. The graph is built using output data from the model, represented by three plot lines that interact with each other. This graph has been altered for content. Nomenclature: Blue arrow points to February 1, 2011, the beginning of this study. Green arrow points to mid-March, 2011, when the model indicated a short-term bottom. Orange arrow points to the current plot as of June 24, 2011. Red arrow points to what the model indicates as a top to the S&P 500 occurring in the month of May, 2011.
The graph is purposely kept small as plot data gets distorted if enlarged. You may be able to increase the size of the page by manipulating the browser size. On IE, you can do that by clicking View at the top-left on the toolbar, then click Zoom. The Market Barometer Bias (Bias) is a Forecast Bias, not a market bias. The Bias leads the Forecast, usually by at least one day, in the direction of how models have determined where the forecast is headed. Normally, fundamentally speaking, if stocks are going to rally you would see a point, as shown by the green arrow, from which the plots move higher. If the market was going to move lower, it would top out quickly and move decisively lower- not shown in this graph. This graph shows a flat market going sideways, pointed to by the red arrow, extended out pointed to by the orange arrow and until something in the news develops to set it up for the bulls or bears, stock could continue flat and sideways through, possibly the summer months. The extended forecast models do see the market ending higher by years end and could take off in a rally in the Fall months.
Click this chart to see a version of the 444's graph that shows activity as of the close on July 8, 2011. You'll notice that the plot (yellow) is approaching resistance level that Barometer methodology has indicated as resistance. Getting past this point could mean that this rally is for real and that despite the forecast, stocks may be geared to move higher, that is, if the plot can penetrate resistance indicated by the horizontal white line.
Barometer resistance high-water mark held and the S&P 500 recorded Monday and Tuesday [7/11 and 7/12]as negative sessions indicating that markets [stocks] continue tracking sideways with the S&P 500 possible dropping as low as 1250 to 1280.
Market watch page also has a graph similar to this one that is updated daily that you can track.
But when the time comes for the Forecast/ Bias to be changed it will be reflected in the 'Bug'. So watch the Bug, upper left top corner of all pages for change and at the Market Outlook page.
The Barometer Leading Indicator and log is located on the Market Outlook page of the Barometer Forecast. The Market Barometer Forecast and log is located on the Market Outlook and Market Memo page. The Barometer Bias and log is located on the Market Outlook and Market Memo pages. + +
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