In previous months the
Government reported that August saw no jobs added to the economy where
economists were looking for 60 to 100,000. Needless to say Wall Street
traders didn't like that headline and sold stocks off that day.
In a previous report we
saw 80,000 jobs added in October but with another revision of 159,000 new jobs
for that month. It appears lately there is some sort of problem with the
lagging estimate that revisions totally blow away. Job creation north of
150,000 is good, north of 200,000 is upbeat. Data continues to indicate
that recession is not likely, according to measures.
For November, jobs came
in at 120,000, near estimates, but revisions again are upbeat.
Unemployment rate declined to 8.6 percent.
And December's jobs came
in at 200,000 with an unemployment rate of 8.5 percent. The jobs market is
going in the right direction, albeit slowly.
That's the good news.
The bad news is May's report showed minimal job creation while revisions to
previous month were revised down. If this stands up in the coming months,
we could be looking at another recession, a global recession. Global stock
markets sunk on the news; bond yields sink as money keeps pouring into the
safest corner of the market, for now.
Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), the output of goods and services produced in the United States, increased
at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third-quarter of 2012, according to
estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Looking back to 2011, the increase in GDP in
the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions by private
inventory investments, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and exports and
partly offset by federal, state, and local governments spending.
Imports (subtracted in
the calculation of GDP) increased. The advance in GDP for the Fourth
Quarter primarily reflected increase in PCE and nonresidential fixed
investments, a decrease in state and local Government spending.
The
Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee concluded a two day meeting
with an announcement on monetary policy change.
A continued subdued outlook for the economy as the Fed
will keep rates low for years.
The Fed keeps rates steady; the FOMC continues to expect rates to be
accommodative through at least mid 2015; this doesn't mean the Fed wont
raise rates, it means rates (the target for the federal funds) will be kept
accommodative to economic conditions; rates could be raised a couple
percentage points and still be accommodative.
The Federal Reserve Board and the FOMC release table and charts summarizing the
economic projections and the target for the federal funds rate made by Federal
Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents for the January 24-25
meeting. Summaries of economic projections are released on an
approximately quarterly schedule.
Economic Projections Tables and Charts
Last FOMC meeting they
announced operation twist.
The FOMC said in the statement that they will
purchase, by June 2012, $400 billion of treasury securities with remaining
maturities of six to thirty years and will sell an equal amount of treasury
securities with remaining maturities of three years or less.
Federal Reserve Chief Bernanke speech to the committee on Responsible
Federal Budget conference in Washington D.C.. He spoke about fiscal
sustainability, the fiscal policy challenges, achieving fiscal
sustainability, and making of fiscal plans...
The gas (petrol) index fell 6.8 percent in which led to a sharp decline
in the energy index which led to the decline in the CPI index. The
indexes for NAT GAS and fuel oil declined as well; food index was
unchanged, with a decline in the index for food at home offsetting an
increase in the index for food away from home...
Read the Consumer Price Index report...
In past reports the headline CPI had risen 3.5 percent over 12 months, a
slightly lower figure than the previous 3.9 percent increase. The 12 month
change in energy fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast to the energy
index decrease, the 12 month change for core CPI (all items less food and
energy) edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12 month change
was 4.7 percent, the same figure as the previous report.
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![Initial Jobless claims [unemployment] Chart](initial_jobless_claims_chart.gif)
