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Friday, February 3, 2012
The Government reported,
this morning before the open, that January saw 243,000 new jobs created, well
above estimates of around 170,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3
percent.
Futures immediately
ramped-up showing rally for the open. Stocks got into high gear rallying
all session long closing virtually at the highs.
The BLI- short term
forecast- was downgraded last evening on model data that indicated extra caution
for today's session. Since, models have reinstated the BLI back to
positive with the caveat of a probable watch for next week after the jobs data
loses focus and trades comeback into more of a fundamental line.
This by no means, means
that a pullback is expected. Stocks could continue positive or as easily
pullback. We'll have a better sense of what momentum is left by late
morning Monday.
Related:
The economy adds 243,000 new jobs
The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent
Thursday, February 2, 2012
U.S. unemployment new
claims data show slight decrease in initial claims. U.S. stocks are set to
open flat Thursday.
Stocks set for flat
possible mixed start as traders await Fridays highly anticipated payroll jobs
creation and unemployment rate report.
Mixed market after
initial claims and ahead of jobs payroll tomorrow. Tech advanced on
Thursday with the broader market flat and the Dow Jones Index slightly negative.
The late evening
Barometer model-run changed the short term forecast to
neutral from positive as model data suggest a chance that the
S&P 500 will not hold Barometer support Friday.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Futures pointed to
positive open Wednesday as markets get ready for Facebook filing. Global
markets ramp up continuing yesterdays European rally.
The S&P 500 index closed
yesterday (Tuesday) just above the 1308 Barometer support level. A close
at or lower would have triggered a downgrade of the BLI Short-term indicator to
neutral.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Global markets set the
tone for the U.S. open Tuesday. Stocks in the U.S. get off to a positive
start on hope that Greece is making headway on Her debt crisis talks.
Almost a repeat of
yesterdays market except the tech index posted a small gain today. Stock
indexes report a nice profitable January with hope for a carryover to February.
Monday Turned Out Not To Be
So Bad For The Bulls With U.S. Stocks Making Their Way Back To Near Unchanged
Monday, January 30, 2012
Fitch Ratings gets
markets back to thinking Europe debt crisis as U.S. futures, Monday, set the
stage for a sell off for the equity market.
Equities sell off, in
early morning trade, with the Dow hitting triple digit loss. After the
10-oclock hour, stocks reverse direction with the major indexes heading
for the unchanged line. Stocks end the session in the red but well off the
low of the session.
Market Barometer models
continue to indicate a BLI (short term forecast) of positive. The long
term forecast remains at caution.
2.8 GDP Disappointed Markets
Sending U.S. Broader Market To A Flat End Friday As European Stocks Turn
Negative On The News
Friday,
January 27, 2012
Markets looked somewhat
healthy going towards the open Friday until GDP data sent global markets
negative and the U.S. futures lower.
GDP, for the fourth quarter 2011, came in at 2.8 percent,
lower than had been expected. Global markets immediately dived into
negative territory Friday, setting the U.S. up for a negative session and
possibly the catalyst for a correction pullback.
U.S. broader market of
stocks ended flat Friday after a disappointing GDP number. European
markets turned on the news, ending in negative territory. Asia Pacific
markets had already closed.
The U.S. broader market
ended the week flat with NASDAQ posting a small gain. The BLI, short term
forecast, continues to indicate positive.
A Day Of Rest Or Was Thursdays Negative End The Beginning Of A Pullback
Thursday,
January 26, 2012
Fed meeting concludes said to keep rates accommodative to late 2014
and
introduces tables and charts of projection
inspiring the global markets to rally Thursday.
U.S.
equity market rested Thursday, pulling back near 1/2 percent, after a very
starch upward start to the year. The S&P 500 traded out of the Summer Fall
trading range, now trading in the outer limits, as some believe the market is
ripe for at least a correction.
Friday and Mondays market could be the answer to whether the U.S. stock market
corrects or not. The BLI, a short term forecast indicator, continues to
indicate positive for equities. The long term forecast continues at
caution.
Unemployment new claims data, although
increased last week, shows the job market is getting better, albeit very very
slow. After a surge in claims, recent data [chart]
show a descending new claims number which will help in 2012 jobs creation.
The Fed Extended Rate Easing
To late 2014, Stocks Reverse Posting Positive Results
The Fed speaks and
markets turn higher Wednesday after learning that the target for the Fed funds
rate will be kept accommodative to late 2014.
Stocks come alive out of
negative territory, ending just off the highs of the session. The Dow up
0.7 percent, the S&P 500 0.9 percent higher, and the NASDAQ ended 1.1 percent
higher.
FOMC Chief Bernanke holds press conference and Q&A
Fed leaves Fed funds rate unchanged.
FOMC releases projections charts
Wednesday,
January 25, 2012- corrected
Markets Meander Looking For
Direction Which Could Change Tomorrow With QE3, Or Lack Of
Back to Europe
headline-chasing. Greece unable to come to debt terms, so now stocks are
back trading on every other word from the Eurozone.
Stocks open Tuesday
lower as it appears the markets are tired at the current S&P 500 level. Traders
could push stocks lower as there is little reason for the market to advance from
these levels.
Markets looked for direction Tuesday,
settled for meandering the unchanged line. The State of the Union tonight
and the Fed tomorrow as well as Europe debt problems and earnings for traders to
digest.
QE3, or lack of, could be a catalyst
to finally decide market direction. Fed FOMC concludes two day meeting Wednesday
with an announcement tomorrow around 2:15p ET.
Tuesday,
January 24, 2012
Stocks Post Mixed Results
Monday As The Market Looks For Direction
U.S. stocks start the
new week flat- maybe sideways trading is the new normal.
Markets await new news
be it from the Fed or Euro Land. No such thing Monday as the equity market
held close to the unchanged line.
Stocks end flat and
mixed as markets await the Sate of the Union Tuesday and the Fed FOMC where some
are talking QE3.
The big question is
where does stocks go from here. Models show the S&P 500 butting up against
Barometer resistance. Its never a good thing to stagnate at the top
because it usually ends up dropping a lot or in some cases a slight amount
before punching through.
The short term forecast
continues at positive . Next couple of days could prove direction one way
or the other.
Monday,
January 23, 2012
Dow Spikes On IBM, Broader Market Flat While Barometer Models Look For Direction
Mixed start for U.S. stocks after good
earnings from tech heavyweights, except for Google's miss.
The question now, is, does Google's
miss indicate a global/ U.S. economic slowdown or is the miss tired directly to
Europe's faltering economic condition.
U.S. stock market consolidated Friday
with IBM spiking, on earnings, taking the Dow Jones index up over 90 points.
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended flat.
The Long-term models are churning away
looking to see where the S&P 500 goes from here.
The
short-term models continue to indicate positive.
Friday,
January 20, 2012
U.S. Stocks Held Gains Ahead
Of Key Earnings From Google And Others Techs
Stocks open Thursday, as usual, trading higher as traders sort through data and
Europe news.
Initial unemployment claims (chart) dropped 50,000,
continuing to show an improving jobs market.
Consumer prices (inflation index) was unchanged in
December, according to the Government. The same index, less
food and energy, rose .01 percent.
U.S. held onto gains again Thursday ahead of some key earnings of Google, IBM,
and Intel. Good results from these companies could inspire more upside for
stocks both here and globally.
Tech heavyweights reported earnings with Google clearly disappointing while IBM,
Microsoft, and Intel did better and were marginally higher in the after hours
session.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
U.S. Stock Market Posted Virtually At The High As The S&P 500 Pushed Through
1300
U.S. Stock market has no fear, climbing the wall of worry. Equities edge
higher Wednesday closing near the high of the session as financials help
sentiment by rising ahead of Bank Of America earning Thursday.
The S&P 500 index broke through 1300 and models show a chance of
follow-through Thursday confirming a breakout from the Summer/ Fall trading
range.
Models will give a clearer picture this evening to the next step in the 2012 low
volume rally.
Models see Thursdays stock market as a neutral open but data is
sparse. Asia Pacific markets are doing well Thursday with Europe markets
not open yet. Bank of America earning is pending and will have an impact
on Thursdays market.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Models See Tuesdays Move
Upward And Turn From The High As A Cautionary Signal
Barometer models show the S&P 500 bumping up against resistance levels
(Barometer resistance) since mid November. It doesn't show up on the
S&P 500
chart, but Barometer models indicate a pullback before much further
advance can be made.
The forecast continues at caution with the BLI (short term forecast) continuing
at positive. The BLI model data indicates a continuation of up and down
market with low volume in a repetitive caution, positive, negative alternating
sequence until the event or circumstance takes the market into a sell off.
The question is when will that be. No one really knows what event or
condition will trigger the move. Until then, we could plot along as
is for some time.
Tuesday
January 17, 2012
S&P Delivers Promised Actions On 16 Euro Zone
Governments
Italy's bond sale Friday not as vibrant as Spain's.
Futures point to flat open Friday.
Flat turns negative after leak of downgrade by the S&P Ratings Services.
Although expected, stocks tumble on the warning. Downgrade comes after S&P
warned the Euro Area that if they didn't get their act together they would be
downgraded.
Stocks recover most of loss Friday after learning that S&P will take action
against 16 sovereign governments today.
As promised months ago, if Eurozone didn't get their debt act together they
would face reviews and possibly downgrades.
S&P Ratings Services made good on the promise by taking action on 16 of the Euro
Area governments.
Models are churning the data to see what effect that will have on Europe
Sunday-Monday and the U.S. market Tuesday. An update will be added to this
snippet on the outcome.
It is unlikely that the European markets will take the S&P
actions on the 16 sovereigns well. It can be expected that
European markets to move negative Monday in reaction to the S&P actions.
Asia Pacific markets Monday will most likely post negative results on the
actions taken against the Euro Area Governments that will carry over to the
Europe markets.
U.S. markets closed Monday for holiday will most likely open Tuesday negative,
if for no other reason than the global market negative ness. By Tuesday
the global markets will have had nearly two sessions ahead of the U.S. in
sorting out the impact, and if solidly negative, will cause the U.S. to start
negative, especially if the Euro is under attack.
U.S. has been somewhat disconnected from the Euro mess this year but that could
change Tuesday.
The U.S. stock market most likely will move lower Tuesday as the S&P 500
continues to hit resistance at current levels (Fridays level) and is unlikely to
break through just yet with global turmoil in play.
The short term forecast has been and will continue at positive but is subject to
downgrade depending on Tuesdays market.
The long term forecast continues at caution.
Friday,
January 13, 2012
U.S. stocks continue to gain in 2012 as traders shelve economic data and
Eurozone issues
Flat neutral start was seen for equities Thursday but saw instead a negative
start, as a pullback may be getting underway.
Jobless new claims and retail sales data didn't help buyers step in Thursday.
Jobless new claims spikes up but still chart
shows an improving jobs market.
The ECB held rates steady which also disappointed U.S. traders, as a rate
decrease would have been seen as helpful to the struggling Euro Area economy.
Traders are fickle. Last year
they were chasing headlines, this year they are content to bid shares higher
with a steady advance, ignoring economical data and debt issues in Europe and in
the U.S..
Dow turns positive late in Thursdays session following
the broader market, and the leader of the pack, tech stocks.
Thursday,
January 12, 2012
Tech Stocks Make Another Gain, DJIA Ended Slightly Under While The S&P 500
Closed Virtually Unchanged
A neutral-to-negative open
was seen for Wednesday's market as consolidation could be due.
U.S. stock
market could consolidate Wednesday at least for a short period of time before
resuming its advance as some market pros believe.
The start of earnings
season as traders try to focus
on U.S. earnings, company earnings outlook, and the economy. Traders still
have an eye on the Eurozone debt trouble.
A late day push by the Dow Jones Industrials fell
short of the unchanged line, ending slightly lower. The S&P 500, broader
market, fell flat, virtually unchanged, all the while tech stocks keep advancing
and posted a 0.3 percent gain on the session.
The Federal Reserve Districts Beige Book report,
released today, suggested that economic activity expanded at a modest to
moderate rate during late November through the end of December 2011. The
report suggests ongoing improvement in economic conditions in recent months.
This report along with recent data suggest reentering recession might be
avoided.
Wednesday,
January 11, 2012
S&P 500, NASDAQ, And The Dow Add To Gains But Post Well Off Session Highs
The U.S. stock market started higher Tuesday helped along by Alcoa's earnings
outlook for 2012.
Asia Pacific stock markets closed Tuesday's trading with gains while European
stocks moved higher Tuesday on Europe's improving debt outlook and Alcoa's
global outlook for 2012.
The forecast models are near a standstill as the S&P
500 trading-range, for months, has quieted the models. But if 2012
continues in positive mode like it has, models will once again start churning-
watch for changes soon.
The BLI currently shows positive which indicates the
S&P 500 group of stocks are going in the right direction.
Stocks get trimmed in Tuesdays market but still posted
nice gain on the session. Could soon see a Forecast-Bias change if the
bullishness continues.
Tuesday,
January 10, 2012
A Slow Go Higher For Stocks As Traders Await Alcoa And Start Of Earnings Season
It's back to work for traders and investors as trading desks will be fully
manned and volatility, market spikes, both positive and negative should re enter
the markets as headline momentum returns.
Pre market Barometer models showed U.S. open Monday to
be neutral to mixed with models depicting Monday's close as flat to positive.
Alcoa kicks off earnings season, tonight, after the
NYSE close, with their internet 4th quarter earnings presentation at 5:00pm ET.,
January 9, 2012.
U.S. stock market was mixed midday Monday as traders and investors are not
willing to add too or sell positions until Alcoa earnings and more importantly
Alcoa's outlook for the next quarter and year. Alcoa reports Monday after
the NYSE closing bell.
The major indexes moved into positive
territory, in the afternoon session, moving sideways along the positive side, to
close with a slight gain as the market awaits Alcoa's earnings report,
especially important, its outlook.
Monday,
January 9, 2012
U.S. Stocks Sink On
Eurozone Mess Ahead Of The Fed
Not a pretty day for global markets as
nearly all indexes fell as markets are not buying in on Eurozone measures from
last weeks summit. U.S. broader market fell 1.5 percent in low volume slow
session.
It's the same story that's been going
around for a long time; can the Eurozone come up with measures to fix the
debt crisis that markets can understand and get behind as well as foster some
global confidence.
Until there is resolution markets could meander a
trading range for a long time. Since the S&P 500 is up at the top of the
trading range, its unlikely a Santa rally will occur this year.
Markets will be watching Tuesday as
the Fed meets for the last FOMC session in 2011. It's unlikely that any
major change to monetary policy can be expected tomorrow.
Barometer models continue to show the S&P 500 in a
trading range for an indefinite period of time. About the only way out
would be a major shock that would blow out the top of range, or for that matter,
the bottom of the range- otherwise we probably will be in S&P 500 1150 to
1250 for awhile.
Of course the other scenario might be if there is no news out of Europe, or
maybe minor stuff, it's possible U.S. could trade on economics for a change and
in low volume move up temporarily past top of range.
Whatever the case is, continue to watch the forecast for developments, as when
models do show something other than trading range, it will be published.
Monday,
December 12, 2011
Traders Are Skittish
Sending Stocks Sharply Lower
Traders are very nervous ahead of the
Euro Area summit and any headline, pro or con, can send markets reeling.
Traders balk at the ECB bond comment
sending the major averages sharply lower Thursday in the last half-hour of
trade.
Stocks were down on the day but began making a
comeback in afternoon trade when in the last half-hour the market moved lower on
the news.
The safe play in today's market is to sell anything that sounds unmeasured
coming out of Europe as most of the time it's going to be bad news.
Not to defend the EU, but looking back on the U.S. budget problems -debt
ceiling- and the S&P credit downgrade, it took a lot of political wrangling of
just one Government to get past that deal.
The Euro Area has many countries of political maneuvering it has to overcome.
So the road to stability for the EU most likely will be very long and rugged.
In other news, yes there was another news item that traders normally would have
jumped on. U.S. economy saw an
improvement in jobless new claims. Not a real big one but still something
the market would have normally jumped on.
Jobless initial claims dropped 23,000 last week [chart]
which doesn't sound like a lot but in these times its a point in the right
direction for our recovery.
Friday should be a very interesting day in the markets
with hopefully positive breaking news. But don't gets your hopes up.
Thursday,
December 8, 2011
Monster Rally On Confidence And Economic Data- This Could Be The Real Deal- The
Bottom
Barometer models indicate the
possibility that Wednesdays surge of the S&P 500 index along with Monday and
Tuesdays session, coupled with the previous weeks decline, [S&P 500 chart shows
a V shaped plot] could be identified with putting in a bottom.
Data also suggest we could be
witnessing the birth of the Santa Claus rally. If this is the real deal,
we must see follow-through with more positive ness and rallies in the next
couple sessions. Jobs reports Thursday and Friday would be perfect
boosters.
U.S. stock market was set to rally Wednesday when news of the coordinated
central banks Dollar swap action, which would build liquidity for countries
banks and trades. The major central banks to reduce rates on Dollar swap
beginning next week. The coordinated action by the central banks set
markets to rally in Europe and a rally in the States.
More good news Wednesday.
China's news of lowering bank reserve requirement as
well as the ADP jobs report set the tone for Wednesdays mega rally.
The major indexes close at the high of the session
and models suggest a positive start Thursday pending jobless initial claims data
which is key to the all important payroll jobs report.
Wednesday,
November 30, 2011
Rally Monday Reversing Seven
Session Loss As Stocks Post Gains Slightly Off The Days High
Rally started early Monday in the
global markets as traders and investors have a slightly better outlook for the
Eurozone debt crisis.
Most of Mondays gain was in the pre
market where Shorts appear to have covered their positions sending stocks
soaring in the early going Monday.
From midmorning through midday and to
the afternoon, stocks traded mostly sideways, tapering off as stocks moved
towards the close. Near the close a rush to buy, as stocks shot up to
close near session high.
Asia
Pacific markets are higher in Tuesdays early going with European markets
hours away from their open. U.S. stocks are seen starting in flat mode as
the month draws to a close over the next two sessions.
Monday,
November 28, 2011
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