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CAUTION |
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.Bias |
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.BLI |
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Pre close Barometer model changed the forecast bias to negative With yesterdays barely positive session and today's positive session- gone negative, it was all the models needed to downgrade the Forecast-Bias. But what does it mean.
When the U.S. stock market is humming along, the forecast indicator (see upper left corner on all pages- the Forecast Bug) would show a green color, indicating positive with both the other indicators showing neutral, amber/ orange color. The other two indicators are the BLI and the Forecast Bias.
The BLI indicator, now showing negative, indicates a model detection of a probable turn from a positive market to one of moving lower. Actually, there are other sub indicators that will also trigger during other model runs that along with the BLI are needed to actually trigger a downgrade such as happened last Friday.
The Bias is not a market bias but rather is a Forecast-Bias. This indicator is normally the last indicator to trigger before a Forecast change. Once this indicator shows negative, like it is today, the Forecast then becomes subject to change, in this case, a downgrade to caution.
A caution Forecast is not the end of the world. Stocks do advance in a cautionary environment. But most professional investors, at this stage, would have already built there cash position up to a comfortable risk level.
As always remember, forecasts are only good for the fundamentals of the market any bad or good news can change a markets direction. Tuesday, January 26, 2010
After early morning dip, stocks trended higher on hope for positive jobs creation report Jobless report Thursday showed a slight increase in new claims, which was expected. The hope for Friday is that a slight negative to a slight positive number will be reported. The jobless new claims chart shows a big improvement leading many to believe that a positive jobs number is due tomorrow. As with some major economical data, a market reaction may not come until next week. Any surprises ether good or bad could cause a sell off as stocks in the U.S. are ripe for a pullback.
If the first four trading days shows us anything, it might be that we could see a new leg up [rally] and then drifting mostly sideways for the remainder of the year. But most analysts believe 2010 will see gains.
Earnings next week will be a catalysts for sectors and the market in general. The Dollar still has an influence over stocks so that also is in play. Oil could continue trekking higher as some believe $90 bbl is probable. Thursday, January 7, 2010
Fed ends policy meeting with no rate hike- market sinks, ends flat The Federal Reserve FOMC ended a two day policy meeting and as was expected kept the target for the Fed funds rate at zero to .25 percent and said that they intend to keep rates accommodative for an extended period of time.
But as you probably have figured out by now, the market seems to have its own agenda and decide it was a good day to make a flat market. Data suggest that stocks could continue going flat- sideways direction for the rest of the year, unable to break through the S&P 500 1100 level, convincingly.
The Dow Jones Index and S&P 500 ended mixed while tech [NASDAQ] stocks ended up by 0.3 percent.
The Government released the CPI report showing consumer prices rising 0.4 percent in November but when excluding energy and food products, prices remained unchanged. Wednesday, December 16, 2009
After a four day Bull run, investors get inflation fear taking stocks lower Fear grips the market, taking stocks lower, breaking a four day positive run Tuesday.
Investors cow when they saw a report that showed surging manufacturing prices that increased by 1.8 percent in November with the core price rising 1/2 percent. Core price excludes volatile food and energy.
The big fear is that the FOMC will raise interest rates to head off inflation. But what investors are overlooking is that this is a recession and you want prices to rise. Coming out of such a deep recession, and most believe we are, you want to see a big bounce back. Hopefully the market will come to terms with this when the FOMC states AGAIN that it's likely to maintain low Fed funds rate target for an extended period of time. The FOMC is scheduled to release its statement at 2:15 pm ET Wednesday. Tuesday, December 15, 2009
News of Exxon, Dubai, and Citi Group got investors to send stocks up News of the day- Exxon acquiring XTO, Dubai getting a bailout, and Citi Group repaying TARP- got the stock market to rise Monday with technology leading the way. The Dow rose 0.3 percent, the NASDAQ rose one percent, and the S&P 500 was up 0.7 percent.
The Market Barometer evening model showed that if Tuesday is positive, the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) would most likely be upgraded to neutral from negative. Stocks seem to be showing signs of life and possibly moving out of the trading range developed over the past several weeks. Monday, December 14, 2009
Make it two in a row for the Bulls The stock market rose for a second day with the Dow Jones Industrials up 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 was higher by 0.6 percent, and the NASDAQ lagged but was higher by 0.3 percent.
Market Barometer Model data [the model data] suggest that stocks could go sideways [range bound] for the remainder of the year. For weeks the market has been doing just that because it appears that traders and investors are not willing to step up and go either way, short or long. The model data also suggest that stocks could end up moving lower once we get out of the sideways movement of the market. In addition, the model data suggest that it would take lots of good news to get buyers to bid stocks higher from current levels but that it would take very little bad news to get sellers to take control of this directionless market. Thursday, December 10, 2009
Stocks move lower as economic recovery concerns grow Investors and traders sent the stock market lower Tuesday on concerns over the economic recovery, both in the U.S. as well as the Global economy.
The market moved lower on growing concerns of the recovery by sending the broader market lower by 1 percent and by 3/4 percent in the tech-NASDAQ market. Gold and oil prices didn't escape sellers wrath as they were sold off as well.
It appears traders and investors are moving to short term cash positions as they wait for direction as stocks have gone sideways for weeks. Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Jobs report got stocks to rally; broader market got trimmed while tech surged on the news The unemployment and nonfarm jobs report was issued by the Government before the open Friday, showing unemployment rate at 10-percent in November, with jobs lost for the same period declining by 11,000. The better than expected data got investors and traders to bid shares up in a rally for a short while.
Stocks came under pressure early as the broader market gave most of the rally back except for the tech sector which did well, outperforming non-tech. The broader market ended with a 0.6 percent gain, while tech stocks ended higher by one percent; the Dow blue chips struggled in the session but managed to gain slightly at the close by 0.2 percent. Friday, December 4, 2009
Past 13 sessions, stocks have gone stagnant as S&P 500- 1100 gets tested over and over and over Is Friday the big day? Finally getting equities to move somewhere? For the past thirteen sessions the S&P 500 continues to bounce around the 1100 mark- ending Thursday session at 1,099.92.
The test of the 1100 has failed numerous times and that normally means bad news for equities. Usually a test of an area of resistance either gets blown right through it OR it plays with it and finally fails and the market sells off- kind of what we're seeing now.
Fridays unemployment report just might be the catalyst that gets us moving in one direction or the other. The market is real ripe for a sell-off, valuations are said to be plump and the next set of earnings may or may not be pleasing to investors. The payroll report could be the catalysts that gets markets moving again.
The models are crunching the numbers and it looks real good for a Forecast downgrade if things don't perk up soon. Thursday, December 3, 2009
Stocks sluggish trade Wednesday ends mixed, tech outperforms broader market The stock market was flat most of Wednesday after a pre-open ADP [small business] report and a mid morning Beige Book report.
The broader market was sluggish and ended flat while tech stocks rose 0.4 percent on the day. Oil prices sold off, bouncing around like equities, while gold price has a one track mind as it continues to ramp up.
Volatility could pick up, for better or worse, Thursday and Friday with a two day dose of unemployment data. Thursday's jobless new claims data hopefully will show continuing improvement while Fridays unemployment-rate and jobs lost report could cause an increase in volatility.
U.S. futures looked promising for Thursdays open as most global markets are in positive territory Thursday. Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Stocks rally Tuesday hope is for more Several more sessions like Today and we just might get stocks back on track and get past these resistance levels.
We have been testing the S&P 500 1,100 mark for some time now and today we blasted convincingly past it but we need to add more to this rally with several more sessions of gains.
The longer we stagnate the harder it will be to move past these resistance levels without selling off first.
The DJIA rose 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, and the NASDAQ rose 1-1/2 percent. Tuesday, December 1, 2009
U.S. stock market sold off along with global markets on Dubai news Equity market sold off Friday on fear that the Dubai news could be a new leg down for the financials and that the global economic recovery may not be on track as first believed. Oil and gold prices fell as traders and investors build cash position to wait for these problems to unwind.
The Dow posted a 1.5 percent loss, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both posted 1.7 percent loss.
The Market Barometer Leading Indicator [BLI] was downgraded to negative as data from the Thursday evening model run indicated a worsening of events for Fridays short holiday session. The BLI will maintain a negative stance until conditions improve over the next few sessions. Friday, November 27, 2009
Forecast continues at positive with a negative Leading Indicator Market Barometer models, this evening, downgraded the Barometer Leading Indicator to negative.
World markets are selling off over concerns of a debt rescheduling by the Dubai Government, according to Google, AFP Newswire report. Reaction by world markets was to sell off securities. U.S. futures are reported to be set for the U.S. equities market to sell off Friday morning in the pre market.
Whether there are substantial risk for investors is not know but investors and traders are quick to pull the sell trigger and the momentum could be a catalyst for a downturn and rip for a pullback.
The Leading Indicator at negative signals a turn in the markets direction. In this case a market turn lower. The Forecast will continue at positive until the models are able to measure the risk of a further slid in markets. Thursday, November 26, 2009
Data drives the Dollar lower and stocks higher Stocks gained ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday which marks the Christmas buying season that retailers and news media call Black Friday, the day when retailers supposedly go positive, or make a profit.
The markets will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, for Thanksgiving holiday but will reopen on Friday at the normal scheduled times for a half day session.
Jobless new claims finally dropped below the 500,000 level last week which lifted economic spirits.
The Dow and NASDAQ closed up by 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 closed higher by 1/2 percent. Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Slow session with lots of data that had little effect over equities This was supposed to be a data driven day. Reports, reports, and more reports to churn but most of the data was already know. So its back to a Dollar driven stock market.
Actually its been a Dollar driven market for a while now. The Dollar and the stock market go in opposite direction- most of the time. Most everybody [analysts and economists] see the Dollar continuing lower so that must mean stocks are going up. We will see if the Dollar driven market continues or not.
Stocks slipped Tuesday after Mondays rally. Well off the low of the session, stocks rebound still ended short of the unchanged-line.
The stock market just missed a downgrade today by closing within reach of the unchanged line. Barometer models are close to calling a turn in the market- a turn for the worse- but the S&P 500 closed above the 1,100 mark for a second day, averting a Leading Indicator downgrade.
Wednesday is Thanksgiving-eve and should be very slow and light trading, so it may be next week before we see much interest in the stock market. The markets are close Thursday but will reopen Friday for a short session. Tuesday, November 24, 2009
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