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Economy added 209,000 jobs.

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Head Fake Rally of November and December 2008



Up and down plunging markets, the volatile sessions continue

Back in early November 2008, Barometer models indicated that things were getting better with a swift rally that looked for real.


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But the financial crises had all the look and feel of a very deep problem that could last for some time.


Investors and traders believed that which was evident with the up and down plunging markets with minutes to go in these volatile sessions.


The markets have taken some very sharp losses--  S&P 500 chart--  and you would think we could muster a little upside movement.


No doubt that we will see a rally or two between now and the bottom of this bear market.  I guess if you're in it for the long haul, these are some good prices if you have the wherewithal to add Dollars at this stage.


The Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) is supposed to lead the forecast.  But back in early November 2008, a head fake by marketeers got the BLI off onto a positive stance that was short-lived.


The equity market got real bullish for a time.  The BLI and Bias was positive, with a forecast turning caution from negative.


With a Santa rally almost guaranteed, investors saw the rally Peter out, so by December 23, 2008 the BLI and Bias was turned back to neutral.


Well Christmas came and went, New Years came and went, and stocks in the U.S., not to mention almost throughout the entire Glob, went belly-up and continue to drop.


All in all, things did become a little more predictable, in that, nothing was predictable other than you could predict a sliding stock market with nearly pinpoint accuracy.


There is some evidence Market Barometer channel evidence, that suggests we may be entering a bottom-building process and that we could see a real turnaround somewhere down the road.


God forbid that we should get anymore real bad news.  Remember.  Forecasts are based on fundamentals, news can sway markets from side to side, lets hope the fundamentals eventually take over.


February, 2009



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If you aren't a seasoned investor, you may not know how to invest in volatile markets.  You even might be new  to investing.  If so, you might find this investing article helpful.  It's called Investing in the stock market for beginners, a 101 article.



Also another way to play the market for some investors is to buy and sell shares directly through a company stock purchase plan.  This bypasses brokerage firms and you save money.  The article is called Dividend Reinvestment Plan, or DRIP.


Jobless claims chart

Jobless initial claims chart

S&P 500 Chart: False rally off of November low

S&P 500 color coded forecast chart for March 9, 2009

The S&P 500 shown in the chart indicates a bottom if you were to look at it in late November 2008.  But as you can see the rally lasted long enough to get the Barometer models to show CAUTION and then selling took off. Back to article.


The BLI is an advance indicator that leads the forecast:

Showing positive, signals an early indication that the stock market could turn from its negative stance to a positive one. On the other hand, showing negative, warns that the stock market could move into a negative stance.


A neutral shows the Barometer models are in-between indications;  the indecision neutral position normally doesn't last more than a couple of sessions before settling in on a positive or negative.


The BLI is very accurate in showing market changes before a forecast change and can be used as an early indication of market turnaround.  Return back to article.


Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart:

Market Barometer leading indicator chart- March 9, 2009 rally

This chart is a graph of three metrics from the models.  The chart shows channels developing.  This is how the models see the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 in particular.  For more information on this chart go to the Barometer Leading Indicator study for more details.  Back to the article.


Unemployment new claims chart as of February 2009

Initial Jobless Claims chart- September 2007 to March 2009

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