| Market Outlook | |
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CAUTION |
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.Bias |
POSITIVE |
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.BLI |
POSITIVE |
| Extended Forecast | |
Detail look at the Leading Indicator
Stock Market Forecast Chart- Barometer Chart
Clicking the above chart will launch the advance model
Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart. Data from the models populate this chart to show a visual of how the models see the U.S. stock market.
This particular chart is the LI channel chart in detail that show the relationship of the Barometer-plot to the boundaries. Back to the Barometer market study.
| Chart updated on
September 16, 2009
after the close of business. The yellow arrow points to the Barometer-plot as of Wednesday's close. As you can see the plot continues to move above the boundaries where it has been for most of the time since March 2009- a bullish sign. This means the fundamentals of the market are good and that this rally continues. A pullback or consolidation period is around the corner. Notice the red arrows that point to the wide gap between the plot (yellow) and the boundaries (green and red lines). In these two cases, the gap indicates wide spread enthusiasm for the stock market and will end either with a consolidation or a pullback. As a note: look at the blue and green arrows. Just ahead of those arrows are two gaps. In the case of the blue arrow, it led to the November false bottom. The green arrow points to the March bottom. These wide gaps in the negative cases are indications of capitulation. The wide gaps in the positive are indications of great enthusiasm. They both lead to a change at some point in time. When and how deep will the consolidation or pullback get is the question. That question cannot be answered but what is answerable is the fact that it will happen and most likely soon from looks of the chart. We are about to enter a period of time (late September and October) where volatility is nearly a daily occurrence. A one or a two day sell off doesn't mean it has began and doesn't mean it hasn't. When the Barometer-plot (yellow line) moves down and crosses the boundaries that could indicate that it may be underway- it being a major consolidation or a pullback. Always watch the bug for changes. If and when the Bias and BLI go positive it will means enthusiasm is getting a bit over done. The other channel chart give you a broader picture of how this [March 2009]rally compares to the last leg [July 2006] of the March 2003 rally. Remember any bad news can derail positive momentum and turn the market lower. This chart-- for now-- shows that fundamentals of the market are still good. This chart is a closer detail look at the Barometer chart from the previous page. This chart is updated daily but published occasionally. This chart is populated from one of the model metrics on a daily basis. During positive markets the Barometer-plot rides and bounces on the back of the green boundary and it always is atop the red boundary. During negative markets the Barometer plot and red boundary are inverted with the green boundary normally contained in the middle. At times during CAUTION forecasts, the plot and boundaries intermingle. This particular chart is updated daily but not published on the website routinely, for security reasons.
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