| Chart updated on June 24, 2009
after the close. Click
Detail Barometer Chart for more information.
Market Barometer methodology, now over seven years old, has identified a new
technical construct that could lead to a more accurate forecast.
Dubbed "concave recovery", this discovery could
be used to forecast short-term and long-term forecasts and outlook.
It may take several instances to prove this new technique as the Market
Barometer methodology has been analyzing the stock market for a short period
of time, relatively speaking.
As you review the chart above and the legend you can see two concave
structures. Click chart to launch.
The one on the left, in 2006, is a fully developed concave, as we have
defined it, that led to the continuation of the rally that lasted to
November 2007.
The second concave on the right, the current period, has yet to complete
the second inflection point because we haven't got there yet.
Represented by the green arrow, the second inflection point looks to be
mid-August 2009.
If true and the plots continue moving along the upper reference line
pointed to by both the blue and green arrows, it would lead right to the end
of the concave, at the intersection.
What does this mean. If accurate, the rally will catch most
everybody off guard again in August, after earnings season as most
marketeers expect the stock market to move sideways through the summer.
The Market Barometer methodology over the past seven years has been very
accurate during the trials. This new discovered construct needs to be
proven in order to be relied on. But we feel this is an accurate
reading of the data according to the methods we use.
As always, never fully rely on forecasts. Anything can happen to
derail markets from its then current course. Always be prepare for the
unexpected.
We'll update this section from time to time as things change.
This particular chart is updated daily
but not published on the website routinely, for security reasons.
However, there is a similar flash chart that is
displayed daily, located in the
Market Snapshot section.
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