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DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

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Market Outlook is a recap of the current and future condition of the U.S. stock market.

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.

Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Extended Forecast is a seven week forecast of the U.S. stock market.

Mar 19 2009 Chart

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Economy added 211,000 jobs.

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Barometer Chart as of April 8, 2009

Stock Market Forecast Chart- Barometer Chart

4-8-2009 Stock Market Forecast Barometer Chart

Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart.  Data from the models populate the charts to show a visual of how the models see the U.S. stock market.

This particular chart is a channel chart that is used to find tops and bottoms as well as identifying performance issues.

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New chart as of April 8, 2009, after the close.  Chart republished to show the progress of the rally.

The yellow arrow points to the Barometer-plot.  The plot has worked its way past the line pointed to by the green arrow.  That lines represents, in Barometer terms, the November low.  Passing this is critical for the rally to continue.  Since passage appears to be complete, Barometer models now indicate a new leg up for the stock market that could be choppy during earnings season.

Note the orange arrow.  It represent the Barometer support that appears to have been tested successfully (blue arrow).

Previous text:  The Barometer channel chart of February 20, 2009 shows a probable new channel being developed.  This new channel is depicted by the white line at a 45 degree angle, pointed to by the red arrow.

If Monday/ Tuesday February 23-24, 2009 is not a positive day, then it would appear that this new "short-term" channel would have failed, but not necessarily the bottom of this bear market.

The white horizontal line, pointed to by the green arrow, represents the line that the November 2008 [S&P 500 index] low occurred, according to the Barometer models.

If there are sufficient number of negative market days next week, it could send the Barometer plot--  yellow line just below the new channel--  sharply lower towards the blue arrow.

If that were to happen, along with more panic selling (capitulation) and if the market rallies from that point, we could be witnessing a bottom successfully tested.

On the other hand, if the Barometer plot breaks through that point depicted by the blue arrow, we could be in for more selling.

Most likely the forecast will stay at caution during this period unless other developments arise.

This particular chart is updated daily but not published on the website routinely, for security reasons.  However, there is a similar flash chart that is displayed daily, located in the Market Snapshot section.

 

 

 

 
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Last modified: 3/ 8/2017

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