| Market Outlook | |
|
CAUTION |
|
|
.Bias |
NEGATIVE |
|
.BLI |
NEGATIVE |
| Extended Forecast | |
Barometer and Performance Charts
Stock Market Forecast Chart- Barometer Chart
Market Barometer Leading Indicator chart. Data from the Barometer models populate charts to show a visual of how the model data see the U.S. stock market. This chart is another channel chart that is used to find pullbacks and bottoms as well as identifying performance issues. Click chart to launch.
Left orange arrow points to the summer 2006 rally that ended in the Fall of 2007.
Right orange arrow points to the current rally that began in March 2009.
Warning!!! Forecasting is good for fundamentals of markets. News can change the direction of markets. Forecasting cannot achieve a 100 percent accuracy rate.
| Chart updated on September 16, 2009
after the close. Click
Detail Barometer Chart for more information. The concave case didn't happen the way it was detailed in a previous study but the new leg up did and is still very active. As you can see the March 2009 rally is intact and a little to healthy. The detail close-up chart shows a consolidation or pullback is near. This broader picture [chart above] shows some similarities to the March 2003 rally, last leg-up, that started in July 2006 and lasted through most of 2007, until the bears got hold of the market during the 2008 downturn. For a more detail look at where we are now in the market, go to the detail look at the channel chart study. This particular chart is updated daily but not published on the website routinely, for security reasons. However, there is a similar flash chart that is displayed daily, located in the Market Snapshot section.
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The Barometer-Forecast performance-chart, Color coded.
Market Barometer's color-coded forecast performance chart- a report card- you can see how we are doing in forecasting the U.S. stock market* February 8, 2010, 10:06 pm ET:
* - The DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.
The chart is a two-in-one chart.
First, it is a color-coded performance report card with the colors green (indicates positive market) , amber - orange (indicates a cautionary-neutral market) , and red (indicates a negative market), the colors of the forecast, overlaid to the S&P 500 index ($spx).
Now, you can see how we did when we made a forecast change.
Second, you can use the chart everyday to see the forecast and how it is progressing compared to the S&P 500 index.
There is another color- blue, that represent the timeframe where we made a prediction but didn't keep logs of the forecast changes. Without the forecast log, we don't have proof of the exact time of the change, so we elected not to color code it with the forecast change.
The chart will be updated each trade day with the S&P 500 close value, color coded with the current forecast so that you can easily see how the market is doing at a glance.
S&P 500 chart: Click for close up view
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| The performance chart represents the S&P 500 daily close, color-coded as follows. Blue plotline indicates forecast logs which were not kept to prove the Barometer forecast for this time period. Green plotline; the period of time the models forecasted a positive market environment. Amber-orange plotline; the period of time the models forecasted a neutral [caution] market environment. And red plotline; the period of time that the models forecasted a negative market environment. |
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