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DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

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Economy added 243,000 jobs.

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STOCK  MARKET  OUTLOOK

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Market Barometer Forecast

CAUTION

Caution indicates a neutral stance on the stock market;  stocks could be up one day down the next.

Forecast was changed on October 14, 2011

Forecast was previously changed on August 4, 2011

Extended Forecast

Market Memo

 

The Market Barometer Forecast is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day, like pre-open, open, post open, etc.  The Forecast can be positive, caution, or negative.

S&P 500 chart

S&P 500 Index chart color coded with Market Barometer forecast

CHALKBOARD: Analysis of model data

Saturday, February 4, 2012, 12:02p ET

If this is a false indication, the BLI will revert back to positive.

The Friday afternoon model run changed the BLI- short term forecast- back to positive.

With follow-through Monday-Tuesday we could be looking at a new leg up for stocks.

 

Market Outlook For Tomorrow

Market Outlook For Tomorrow

 

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Barometer Chart: market study

Market Barometer Model Chart;  Market Study

Market Barometer Leading Indicator

POSITIVE

A positive Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) suggests that a more sustainable positive U.S. stock market is attainable if current roadblocks can be overcome;  conditions could improve if the Eurozone fear leaves the markets;  models indicate a positive outlook for the S&P 500 index for the short term.

Leading Indicator was change on February 3, 2012

Leading Indicator was previously changed on February 2, 2012

Market Barometer Leading Indicator is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day.  midday, pre close, and post close are some of the scheduled run times.  The Leading Indicator can be positive, neutral, or negative.

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Market Barometer Forecast Bias

NEUTRAL

 Neutral:  Models indicate the stock market could move lower;  likelihood of declines are possible;  market could continue to be mostly positive.

Bias was change on November 21, 2011

Forecast Bias was previously changed on October 11, 2011

The Forecast Bias is a product of the models that can run at any time deemed necessary.  Big news event or political happening are times that models can and do run.  The Forecast Bias can be positive, neutral, or negative.

Remember!!! Forecasts are only good for the fundamentals of the market;  news can change the direction of the market;  forecasting cannot predict events with 100% certainty.
 

 

 
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Last modified: 02/03/12

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