STOCK  MARKET  OUTLOOK

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Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Long Term Forecast

Market Barometer Forecast

CAUTION

Caution indicates a neutral stance on the stock market;  stocks could be up one day down the next.

Forecast was last changed on October 14, 2011

Forecast was previously changed on August 4, 2011

Extended Forecast

Market Memo

 

The Market Barometer Forecast is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day, like pre-open, open, post open, etc.  The Forecast can be positive, caution, or negative.

S&P 500 chart

S&P 500 Index chart color coded with Market Barometer forecast

CHALKBOARD: Analysis of model data

 

Market Outlook For Tomorrow

Market Outlook For Tomorrow

 

December 11, 2013, Wednesday, 3:50p ET.:

 

  Guess it had to happen sooner or later.  Taper talk is building especially now that there is a budget deal.  Models still don't see tapering in December because of the fact that no one knows how bad a stock market sell off could be when tapering begins.

 

Models expect stronger language next week but still no tapering.  Don't think the Fed wants to step out and taper during this part of the holiday spending period as it is unclear what the markets will do once tapering begins.

 

A major sell off is possible and models don't see the Fed FOMC taking a big risk on a major stock market sell off that could halt the recovery or at least could damage it if consumers get freaked out on a major downturn in stocks.

 

Models will trigger the short term forecast to caution prior to the close today.

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Barometer Chart: market study

Market Barometer Model Chart;  Market Study

Short Term Forecast

Market Barometer Leading Indicator

Caution Leading Indicator -Short Term Forecast-  is the position between positive and negative;  home position;  model data distortion-value is negative positive equal;  short-term prospect is neutral- support areas could be tested;  this action could lead to a short-term negative.

Leading Indicator was last changed on December 11, 2013

Leading Indicator was previously changed on October 24, 2013

Market Barometer Leading Indicator is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day.  midday, pre close, and post close are some of the scheduled run times.  The Leading Indicator can be positive, neutral, or negative.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.
Forecast Bias

Market Barometer Leading Indicator

NEUTRAL

Neutral bias with a caution forecast means the stock market could move lower or higher;  conditions appear to be limiting the likelihood of declines;  declines cannot be ruled-out.

Bias was last change on December 5, 2012

Forecast Bias was previously changed on November 15, 2012

The Forecast Bias is a product of the models that can run at any time deemed necessary.  Big news event or political happening are times that models can and do run.  The Forecast Bias can be positive, neutral, or negative.

Remember!!! Forecasts are only good for the fundamentals of the market;  news can change the direction of the market;  forecasting cannot predict events with 100% certainty.