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DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

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Market Outlook is a recap of the current and future condition of the U.S. stock market.

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.

Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Extended Forecast is a seven week forecast of the U.S. stock market.

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Economy added 255,000 jobs.

Unemployment Rate 4.9 percent.

GDP +1.1 percent.

GDP chart 1987 to 2015.

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How to tell where the market is going.

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Indicates long-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Long Term Forecast

Market Barometer Forecast

CAUTION

Caution indicates a neutral stance for the stock market, long term;  stocks could be up one day, down the next;  corrections and rallies can be expected.

Forecast was last changed on October 14, 2011

Forecast was previously changed on August 4, 2011

Extended Forecast

Market Memo

 

The Market Barometer Forecast is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day, like pre-open, open, post open, etc.  The Forecast can be positive, caution, or negative.

S&P 500 chart

S&P 500 Index chart color coded with Market Barometer forecast

CHALKBOARD: Analysis of model data

 

Market Outlook For Tomorrow

Market Outlook For Tomorrow

Indicates short-term U.S. equity market (S&P 500) forecast.

Barometer Chart: market study

Market Barometer Model Chart;  Market Study

Short Term Forecast

Market Barometer Leading Indicator

A positive Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) suggests that a more sustainable positive U.S. stock market is attainable;  models indicate a positive outlook for the S&P 500 index for the short term.

Leading Indicator was changed on March 1, 2016

Leading Indicator was previously changed on November 13, 2015

Market Barometer Leading Indicator is a product of the models that run at particular times of the day.  midday, pre close, and post close are some of the scheduled run times.  The Leading Indicator can be positive, neutral, or negative.

Indicates the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.
Forecast Bias

Market Barometer Leading Indicator

Neutral:  Models indicate the stock market could move lower as well as higher;  long term forecast conditions are neutral;  likelihood of declines are possible;  likelihood of advances are possible;  forecast long term is positive negative equal.

Bias was last change on August 18, 2014

Forecast Bias was previously changed on August 5, 2014

The Forecast Bias is a product of the models that can run at any time deemed necessary.  Big news event or political happening are times that models can and do run.  The Forecast Bias can be positive, neutral, or negative.

Remember!!! Forecasts are only good for the fundamentals of the market;  news can change the direction of the market;  forecasting cannot predict events with 100% certainty.
 

 

 
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Last modified: 1/ 3/2016

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