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DAILY STOCK MARKET FORECAST

 

"Today's stock market forecast"
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.Bias

NEUTRAL

.BLI

NEUTRAL

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MARKET ENVIRONMENT AT A GLANCE

Seven Week Forecast:

--Extended Forecast--

Major stock market indexes- forecast

  This Week Next Week Week of -->

12-Jul

19-Jul

26-Jul

2-Aug

9-Aug

POSITIVE

CAUTION

CAUTION

CAUTION

CAUTION

CAUTION

CAUTION

Forecast Objective and Definition:

Objective of the forecast is to identify major advances and declines as well as trading-range markets. The bias is used to identify the likelihood of the forecast to maintain the forecast.
Today's forecast:

Forecast of POSITIVE with a neutral forecast-bias indicates the indices are performing well, with the prospect of continuing to move higher with retracement;   overall, higher-highs and higher-lows are expected... More information can be found on the Market Forecast Outlook page.

Watch the "bug" upper left corner on all public pages for changes.   <Today's action>

Positive

Generally Favorable Environment

When the forecast displays positive, the market [major indices] is expected to generally advance with positive sentiment, discounting most bad news. Brief periods of pullbacks are expected as the indices advance with higher-highs and higher-lows.

 

  

Caution

Cautionary/ neutral environment

When the forecast displays caution, the market [major indices] is expected to generally meander possibly in a sideways motion decline and advancing with mixed sentiment. Periods of advances and declines are expected but the indices overall will trend in a range dictated by events surrounding market sentiment

Negative

Generally Negative Environment

When the forecast displays negative, the market [major indices] is expected to generally decline with negative sentiment, discounting most good news. Brief periods of advances are expected but the indices overall will decline with lower-highs and lower-lows.

Forecast Summary and Analysis:

Select this link to go to new Forecast Outlook center.

 

Oil-gas-distillate prices, geopolitical events, a slowing housing sector,  a spending pullback by the consumer, earnings & outlook [guidance] will continue to play an important role for traders and investors in deciding their buy/sell strategy.

Note: Any news item can immediately affect the market, either in a  positive or negative way. The Barometer doesn't immediately calculate 'surprise' news that may be released. Therefore, always be prepared for the unexpected.

Traders and investors will keep watch on indicators such as the nonfarm payrolls report, productivity report, PPI - CPI inflation data, and GDP;  these reports will produce volatility in the markets if the data is stronger or weaker than expected.

Traders and investors are very well adapted to analyzing what the Fed will and wont do. Economical data reports, such as above, that are unexpected and Fed-talk as well as minutes from FOMC meetings, all, can cause volatility.

 

The Market Memo is a general advisory and should be viewed as an opinion of the future of the U.S. equities market. Use the Barometer forecast "bug" for a more accurate forecast along with the daily home page commentary. Although market conditions seem to move fast, when it comes to identifying the Barometer technical conditions of the market, it moves slower than one would think.
Definition of the forecast display- upper left corner of all public pages
FORECAST      
  Purpose:   Indicates current and future U.S. equity market trend.
    POSITIVE Green indicates a positive market generally trending higher.
    NEGATIVE Red indicates a negative market generally trending lower.
    CAUTION Orange indicates a neutral or cautionary market environment.
BIAS      
  Purpose:   Indicate the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias.
    POSITIVE Green indicates a positive bias to the current forecast.
    NEGATIVE Red indicates a negative bias to the current forecast.
    NEUTRAL Orange indicates a properly positioned forecast.
BLI      
  Purpose:   Barometer Leading Indicator.  Forward-looking indicator that detects market direction changes.
    POSITIVE Green indicates a positive future detected.
    NEGATIVE Red indicates a negative future detected.
    NEUTRAL Orange indicates a neutral, undecided condition.
More information can be found on these indicators in Stock Market Outlook section
 

 

 


Market Memo Archive- Archives of past Market Memo's and forecasts.

 

 
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Last modified: 07/01/09

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