| Market Outlook | |
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CAUTION |
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.Bias |
NEGATIVE |
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.BLI |
NEGATIVE |
| Extended Forecast | |
MARKET ENVIRONMENT AT A GLANCE
Seven Week Forecast: |
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| --Extended Forecast-- | ||||||||
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Major stock market indexes- forecast |
This Week | Next Week | Week of --> | |||||
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21-Feb |
28-Feb |
7-Mar |
14-Mar |
21-Mar |
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CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
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Forecast Objective and Definition: |
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| Objective of the forecast is to identify major advances and declines as well as trading-range markets. The bias is used to identify the likelihood of the forecast to maintain the forecast. | ||
| Today's forecast: | ||
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Forecast of CAUTION with a negative forecast-bias means the major indexes are nearly equally weighted with the propensity to move lower... More information can be found on the Market Forecast Outlook page. Watch the "bug" upper left corner on all public pages for changes. <Today's action> |
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Positive |
Generally Favorable Environment |
When the forecast displays positive, the market [major indices] is expected to generally advance with positive sentiment, discounting most bad news. Brief periods of pullbacks are expected as the indices advance with higher-highs and higher-lows.
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Caution |
Cautionary/ neutral environment |
When the forecast displays caution, the market [major indices] is expected to generally meander possibly in a sideways motion decline and advancing with mixed sentiment. Periods of advances and declines are expected but the indices overall will trend in a range dictated by events surrounding market sentiment |
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Negative |
Generally Negative Environment |
When the forecast displays negative, the market [major indices] is expected to generally decline with negative sentiment, discounting most good news. Brief periods of advances are expected but the indices overall will decline with lower-highs and lower-lows. |
Forecast Summary and Analysis: |
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Oil-gas-distillate prices, geopolitical events, a slowing housing sector, a spending pullback by the consumer, earnings & outlook [guidance] will continue to play an important role for traders and investors in deciding their buy/sell strategy. Note: Any news item can immediately affect the market, either in a positive or negative way. The Barometer doesn't immediately calculate 'surprise' news that may be released. Therefore, always be prepared for the unexpected. Traders and investors will keep watch on indicators such as the nonfarm payrolls report, productivity report, PPI - CPI inflation data, and GDP; these reports will produce volatility in the markets if the data is stronger or weaker than expected. Traders and investors are very well adapted to analyzing what the Fed will and wont do. Economical data reports, such as above, that are unexpected and Fed-talk as well as minutes from FOMC meetings, all, can cause volatility.
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| The Market Memo is a general advisory and should be viewed as an opinion of the future of the U.S. equities market. Use the Barometer forecast "bug" for a more accurate forecast along with the daily home page commentary. Although market conditions seem to move fast, when it comes to identifying the Barometer technical conditions of the market, it moves slower than one would think. |
| Definition of the forecast display- upper left corner of all public pages | |||
| FORECAST | |||
| Purpose: | Indicates current and future U.S. equity market trend. | ||
| POSITIVE | Green indicates a positive market generally trending higher. | ||
| NEGATIVE | Red indicates a negative market generally trending lower. | ||
| CAUTION | Orange indicates a neutral or cautionary market environment. | ||
| BIAS | |||
| Purpose: | Indicate the strength of the forecast; it's a forecast bias, not a daily market bias. | ||
| POSITIVE | Green indicates a positive bias to the current forecast. | ||
| NEGATIVE | Red indicates a negative bias to the current forecast. | ||
| NEUTRAL | Orange indicates a properly positioned forecast. | ||
| BLI | |||
| Purpose: | Barometer Leading Indicator. Forward-looking indicator that detects market direction changes. | ||
| POSITIVE | Green indicates a positive future detected. | ||
| NEGATIVE | Red indicates a negative future detected. | ||
| NEUTRAL | Orange indicates a neutral, undecided condition. | ||
| More information can be found on these indicators in Stock Market Outlook section | |||