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Major stock market indexes-
forecast |
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This Week |
Next Week |
Week of --> |
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18-May |
25-May |
1-Jun |
8-Jun |
15-Jun |
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CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
CAUTION |
Forecast Objective and
Definition:
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Objective of
the forecast is to identify
major advances and
declines as well as trading-range
markets. The bias is used to identify the likelihood of the forecast
to maintain the forecast.
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Today's forecast: |
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Forecast of CAUTION with a
neutral forecast-bias means the indices
are nearly equally weighted; no positive or negative advantage;
the market could be up one day, down the next.
Watch the "bug" upper left corner
on all public pages for changes.
<Today's action> |
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Positive |
Generally Favorable Environment |
When the forecast
displays positive, the market [major indices]
is expected to generally advance with positive sentiment, discounting most
bad news. Brief periods of pullbacks are expected as the indices advance
with higher-highs and higher-lows.
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Caution |
Cautionary/ neutral environment |
When the forecast
displays caution, the market [major indices] is
expected to generally meander possibly in a sideways motion decline and
advancing with mixed sentiment. Periods of advances and declines are
expected but the indices overall will trend in a range dictated by events
surrounding market sentiment
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Negative |
Generally Negative Environment |
When the forecast
displays negative, the market [major indices]
is expected to generally decline with negative sentiment, discounting most
good news. Brief periods of advances are expected but the indices overall
will decline with lower-highs and lower-lows.
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008:
12:01 pm ET:-
corrected 12:16 pm ET
Late morning
Barometer
model run changed the forecast to caution from negative. The U.S.
stock market is reacting positive to the GDP data released this morning.
Investors expect a 25 basis point reduction in interest
rates [Fed funds target] with verbiage in the accompanying statement to
indicate, or suggest, an end to the rate-easing cycle. Ultimately
should be a positive for the market.
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Oil-gas-distillate prices,
geopolitical events, a slowing housing sector, a spending pullback by
the consumer, earnings
& outlook [guidance] will continue
to play an important role for traders and investors in deciding their buy/sell
strategy.
Note:
Any news item can
immediately affect the market, either
in a positive or negative way. The Barometer doesn't
immediately calculate
'surprise' news that may be released. Therefore, always be prepared for the
unexpected.
Traders and investors will keep watch
on indicators such as the
nonfarm payrolls report,
productivity report,
PPI - CPI inflation data,
and GDP; these reports will
produce volatility in the markets if the data is stronger or weaker than expected.
Traders and investors are very well
adapted to analyzing what the Fed will and wont do. Economical data reports,
such as above, that are unexpected and Fed-talk as well as minutes from FOMC
meetings, all,
can cause volatility.
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The Market Memo is a
general advisory
and should be viewed as an opinion of the future of the U.S. equities market.
Use the Barometer forecast "bug" for a more
accurate forecast along with the
daily home
page commentary.
Footnote: Although market
conditions seem to move fast, when it comes to identifying the Barometer
technical conditions of the market, it moves slower than one would think. That's why some of the Market Memo repeats from update to update.
Normally, conditions that change the market are slow to develop, thus the Market Memo
will not change if the conditions are still true for that particular reporting
period.
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Market Memo Archive- Archives of past Market
Memo's and forecasts.
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Definition of the forecast display- upper
left corner of all public pages |
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BLI |
Leading Indicator. Advance indication of pending
forecast change.
This feature
can alert a pending forecast change up to 8 trade days before an actual
forecast change. Instrumental in predicting major market changes. |
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Bias |
A preference or inclination.
Based on Barometer models, the Bias identifies
positive and negative Barometer trends. When a positive or negative trend is
identified, the status is changed from neutral to the new status- positive
or negative. The bias is a
precursor to the
forecast. The bias always leads the forecast.
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Forecast |
This Week. General performance of
the market This Week.
Also is a
precursor for Next Week.
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| Precursor |
The forecast that comes before; is considered to lead to
the development of the next forecast time period. |
The Barometer forecast is based on support and resistance levels and
indicators from the Barometer models. When these levels are broken,
indicating either positive or negative, does the forecast change.
A 'caution' forecast means the market can be either positive or negative and
caution should be used in determining your buy/sell/hold methodology. 'caution'
is the position of the forecast before it moves to one of the other conditions
of the market (positive or negative environment). The Barometer is the
tool you could use to get a 'heads-up' on market reversals.
Follow the Barometer and over time you will see how it gives you a heads-up on
the market direction...
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