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Stocks got off to a good start but
concerns took over as has-been the case for the past seven sessions.
Stocks eased off the highs of the
day but dipped in afternoon trade and bounced back to end near the
unchanged-line.
Earnings and outlook
was the focus
for the start as
well as
Personal Income and Outlays data. The
focus quickly turned to the elections and
the Fed meeting with
the payroll unemployment report Friday.
Traders got cold feet again selling the days gain
ahead of what could be a very volatile week with the elections tomorrow, the Fed
Wednesday, and most likely a very dismal jobs report Friday.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Stocks (the broader market) were
upbeat for most of the session with tech (NASDAQ listings) shares languishing
through midday, picked up steam in afternoon trade, to end half-percent higher.
Earnings got in full swing today and
is sure to move stocks one way or the other. Big name stocks due up this
afternoon, after the close, as traders and analyst get close look at quarterly
results of IBM and Apple.
IBM reported better than expected (IBM
stock lower in after hours) results while Apple (AAPL)
beat estimates; both sink in the After Hours session.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Not a real favorable jobs report
(ADP yesterday, jobless new claims Thursday) sent most of the stock market lower
Thursday with tech outperforming, trying to regain some of yesterdays 0.8
percent loss.
Unemployment
new claims and the nonfarm payroll jobs data -tomorrow- as well as
corporate earnings and outlook was the focus
for most of the session.
Thursdays session was slow but reasonable since traders don't want to go
overboard in either direction, ahead of major data points.
•
Barometer Forecast is to continue indicating caution through the payroll report
and into earnings season.
•
Alcoa beats estimates as they kick off earnings season.
•
Jobless
new claims dropped 11,000 to 445,000 as new claims continue tracking in a
channel- see chart.
Equities got off to a great start, trending off the
high of the session, early, stair stepping higher in afternoon trade, to end
with a positive start to the new quarter.
Earnings
season is just around the corner and stocks will get awarded or punished
depending on the outcome. Nonfarm payroll data (jobs
creation or losses and unemployment rate) is on tap and could send
stocks reeling if data continues to disappoint.
Stocks ended the first session of
the fourth quarter in positive territory but
volume continues to be
worrisome for traders
as retail investing continues to be lacking. The flash crash of May continues to
be on the minds of the retail investor and the explanation of what happen back
in May just doesn't seem to be a confidence builder.
If
you don't have tons of money, a supercomputer or two, a time horizon measured in
decades, and be able to dedicate the entire day watching the markets, you might
want to leave the stock market investing to the pros as individual stock picking
for the retail investor might be gone for a long long time.
Until Banks start lending again, jobs become
available-- soon, the housing market picks up, and stop the insane idea of
hiking taxes by letting the Bush tax cuts expire this year, you can probably
kiss the retail investor goodbye.
At least Congress could extend the Bush tax cutes
for another year or two to give the economy a chance to build momentum- they can
always tax once inflation becomes notable. Its up to the powers that are
and to be.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Stocks Go Lower As
Quarter-End Approaches And Ahead Of Major Data
Major indexes drop into negative territory after a
2:00pm rise to the unchanged-line Wednesday, as traders either have completed
their quarterly window dressing, or, is saving the big moves for Thursday.
End of quarter Window
dressing being completed could account for the neutral market Wednesday, as
traders are gearing up for the 4th. Quarter.
Of course everybody is asking where is the
retail investor?
Answerer. Not in stocks but possibly bonds, treasuries, CD's. But if they
are smart, Baby Boomers have raised cash to pay down debt and maybe invest in
some other arena that is more stable. Lets face it, the Flash Crash had to
have gotten their attention.
Does that mean retail investing is
gone forever, or just temporarily? Probably a little of both, at least for
the next five to ten years. PIMCO seems to think that the "new normal" is
here and from the looks of it they are probably right. Time will tell but
the Barometer Forecast seems to be in the Baby Boomers camp, showing caution.
We should get a sense of direction once jobs/ payroll, GDP data is out and
earnings get underway.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
U. S. Stocks Rest From The September Rally, Consolidating,
Closing Mixed, On The Day The Central Bank Kept Rates Unchanged
Stocks got off to a neutral start after housing starts and
permits data but ahead of the FOMC
meeting.
The
Fed FOMC (U.S. Central Bank) kept rates unchanged, as
expected, The Federal Reserve indicated, in their afternoon
statement, that the economic recovery is slow because of a constrained factory
output and jobs creation- sees economical recovery weak...
Read the Fed's Monetary Policy press release...
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
U.S. Stock Market Jumped As The Week's Long Rally
Continues; Forecast Bias Goes Neutral
The stock market got off to a
positive start, with a minor dip midday, ramping up in the afternoon session, to
end just off session highs. The rally continues on
economic data, M&A activity, and an oversold market.
The Barometer post open model changed the Forecast Bias to neutral
from negative.
The Forecast Bias is a leading indicator,
anticipating
Forecast changes, and today's change suggest the possibility that the
Forecast could be upgraded to caution. A forecast change could be coming
soon if the stock market
continues to improve.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Market Liked The payroll Jobs
Report As Stocks Continue The Three Day Rally
Starting September off right with a
three-day rally on oversold condition. Futures rally Friday morning on the
jobs payroll report that came in better than had been expected.
Jobs and
unemployment report was the main focus
for the market as the major indexes posted a better than one percent gain.
September started out with a bang, as data continues to fuel the rally on a
basically lackluster economic recovery.
Data from the Market Barometer Forecast models show that this latest positive
move is just an oversold rally, as Shorts take cover- just in case.
Barometer Forecast continues to show negative, but that could change if the
September rally continues after the Labor Day holiday.
The employment rate rose to 9.6 percent in August while
the
Nonfarm jobs lost 54,000.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Bulls Ramp Up The Oversold Stock Market Amid GDP And Bernanke-Talk
Stocks took off after a brief dip as
GDP and M&A was the focus
for the open. We finally got a rally that recovered a little lost ground.
GDP for the second quarter was revised down but
did come in slightly higher than economist had expected.
Some economist and analysts are expecting the economy to pickup in 2011.
And you know what that means. The market is forward-looking.
Anywhere from 3 to 9 months and that would put us into November, on the leading
edge. If the GOP could win positions back, as is expected, we could see
gridlock in the Government which, it appears, would be good for the economy- as
opposed to what we have now. Traders know that and you as the retail
investor can maybe expect a substantial rise in stocks after September- October
volatility period.
Always watch the forecast for change and always be
prepared for the unexpected- meaning always maintain the appropriate cash
target.
Friday, August 27, 2010
U.S. Stock Market Ends With A
Modest Gain Wednesday Ahead Of Jobless Initial claims
U.S. stocks spent the day in
positive territory after a shaky start, but trended lower throughout the session
to end with a modest gain.
Trending off session highs to end
with a small gain triggered Barometer model to change the BLI to neutral from
positive this afternoon. The afternoon model run downgraded the Barometer
Leading Indicator to neutral as stocks were
up near the close today but data suggested that the positive ness may not hold
tomorrow.
Jobless initial claims tomorrow [chart] could
displease traders as the market has a tendency to sell-off at the slightest bad
news.
Barometer model changed the BLI to neutral this afternoon
as model data suggest its difficult to keep the market higher and its real easy
to move it lower on bad news.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Off The Lows of The Session, Stocks Run Red On Global
Economic Growth Concern
Off the low of Thursdays session,
stocks continued in negative territory for three straight sessions on global
economic growth concern.
Futures were lower before the jobless new claims
data and took a dive after the Government reveled another loss in the jobs
market.
Stocks opened lower, mired in gloom all day as fear
that the economy is slowing with real possibility of a double-dip. Global
economic slowdown had traders very worried Thursday as jobs report this morning kicked start
the sell off.
Market Barometer afternoon model run
changed the Forecast Bias to neutral.
Trader sentiment got reversed by bad news from the Fed and growing fear that the
global slowdown is for real, took buyers to the sidelines
today.
Unemployment new claims went up by 2,000 last week,
set a nasty tone for traders Thursday.
Chart of unemployment new claims show a channel
of claims that could continue until new budgets next year.
2011 Corporate budgets could be the
beginning of new jobs being added to the economy as companies prepare for
new horizons next year.
Companies like Cisco are holding lots of cash that
could be put to work in the form of new positions. Cisco says they are in
good position going forward and we know they have a lot of cash. So
eventually, they and others, will put the cash to work and it probably will be
2011 when new budget go into effect.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Stock Market Ramps up In Last Hour Of Trade
A Government report released earlier showed July
payroll jobs unexpectedly
fell with companies continuing to layoff workers. Report sent future
lower, Friday morning, with traders thinking the worse as a sell off was on
everybody's mind. But in the last hour, or so, of the session stocks came
roaring back, nearly reaching the unchanged line. The question becomes is
Wall Street on the verge of climbing the wall of worry? The stock market,
by all rights, could have crashed after the dismal report and stocks did sink
well into negative territory, but managed to make a comeback, to end with a
slight loss.
Friday, August 6, 2010
The Market Rests From Mondays
Rally As Traders Prepare For The Jobs Report
Stocks got off to an iffy start as consolidation
sets in.
Personal Income and Outlays report was in focus
for the start as well as earnings and outlook.
Traders rested Tuesday as the U.S.
stock market consolidates, giving up close to 1/2 percent after yesterdays 2
percent gain. Traders wait for the payroll jobs report due out Friday with
Thursdays jobless new claims report that could be a preview of sentiment.
Its jobs, jobs, jobs. Nothing else on the minds of traders as the
expectations for evidence that the employment picture is improving. or not.
You can bet that traders will react on the upcoming data starting with Thursdays
new claims report.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
U.S. Stocks Moved Lower On Disappointing Data
Stocks tried to make a go of it but data kept
traders on edge with the buyers sidelined.
Durable Goods
and the Beige Book saw to it that traders were stifled when they tried to bid
shares higher. Earnings and company outlook was in focus
for the start as
well as BP and the Durable Goods report. Markets were very much news
driven today with the Durable Goods report and the Beige Book setting buyers on
the sidelines as stocks sunk 1/2 to 1-percent.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Traders relieved by Europe
debt problem news send U.S. equities up; Barometer Bias got upgraded
Stocks got off to a flat negative
start but quickly moved into positive territory and by midday traders bid shares
higher on less fear. Earnings and company outlook
was the focus
for the start as
well as the Gulf oil disaster and the storm (Bonnie) that is likely to
enter the Gulf today or tonight. Stocks continued to rally as the
afternoon Barometer model run upgraded the Barometer Forecast Bias to
positive, this leads the way for the Forecast to be upgraded to
caution.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Traders ramp up stocks ahead
of Apple earnings and after a dismal IBM report
Stocks opened in
negative territory on concerns that
IBM results would propagate to others in this fragile economy. Earnings
and company outlook and the housing report was the focus
for the open Wednesday, as well as IBM and Goldman's report, specifically.
The street awaits Apple Inc. and Yahoo earnings- Apple results could send stocks
higher Wednesday. The major averages posted a 3/4 to 1 percent gain with
traders anticipating a rally Wednesday.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Alcoa inspired a rally Tuesday- can Intel
continue the momentum
The Market Barometer afternoon model run changed the
Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to neutral from negative. A
neutral BLI could indicate a possible turnaround for the U.S. stock market.
Intel (INTC)
earnings beat estimates and investors applaud, sending Intel's shares ramping in
the after hours.
Can Intel keep the momentum Wednesday as Alcoa (AA)
did today. Intel and Cisco Systems (CSCO),
in past years, had inspired the markets to rally higher into the famous tech
bubble. Can they do it again? Stay tuned and watch the Bias and the
forecast for any possible changes.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Rally Held Together As
Traders Bid Share Prices 2 To 3 Percent Higher
Stocks ramp higher making up for
yesterdays fizzled rally, with the major indices posting gains of two to three
percent Wednesday, closing at the high of the session.
One or even two day rally will not
change the underlining fear that traders have about the global economic
recovery, which has plagued markets for months. More positive sessions
--earning season is next-- with bullish momentum is needed before the Market
Barometer forecast can change from negative- watch the Bias and BLI indicators
for change.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Mixed Session As Dow Holds A
Slight Gain
Look for a neutral flat open. Jobs
data (ADP today, jobless tomorrow, payroll unemployment Friday) and earnings/ outlook in focus
for the start, as well as QE2 chatter. Jobs still a concern for some
traders as stocks in the broader market and tech market move lower while blue
chips eke out a small gain.
Thursday is the unemployment new claims report
and
Friday is payroll jobs report, both could
inspire traders to send stocks in either direction.
Wednesday, October 6,
2010, 8:58 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:49p
Strong economical data and
QE2 help stocks to rally
Look for a neutral-to-positive open Tuesday. Markets
are looking forward to earnings/ outlook as
well as the jobs report. Market is ready to try and make up for yesterdays
selling. Stocks ramp up Tuesday on ISM Service data and traders hope for
quantitative easing.
Tuesday, October 5,
2010, 8:56 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:57p
Stocks Move Lower As Traders
Await Fresh Data
Look for a neutral-to-negative open
Monday. Important fresh economical data this
week and the start of earnings is in focus
for the start.
Monday, October 4, 2010,
8:54 A.M. Eastern- updated 3:02 pm
Equities Post Positive On
First Session Of The Fourth Quarter
Look for a neutral-to-positive open Friday. Earnings
season is just around the corner and stocks most likely will react to this
particular around of earnings and especially company outlook forecasts.
Stocks ended the first session of the 4th. quarter on a
positive note as investors now look to next weeks jobs data.
Friday, October 1, 2010,
9:03 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:41 pm
>
Personal income and consumption rose in August.
Data Had Little Lasting
Positive Ness Over Today's Outcome, But For The Month And Quarter, Outstanding
Returns
Look for a positive open for
Thursday. Jobless new claims and GDP in focus
for the start as
well as last session of the 3rd. Quarter. Thursdays Futures turned around,
indicating a positive open, on jobless claims and GDP data.
Thursday, September 30,
2010, 8:30 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:46 pm
>
Second-Quarter GDP revised up to 1.7 percent.
>
Initial jobless claims decreases putting claims in the
middle of the channel- chart.
Stocks Move Lower At Quarters
End, Ahead Of Data
Look for a neutral-to-negative open Wednesday. End
of quarter Window dressing as the market gears up for cautious trading ahead of
major data. Traders rest Wednesday as the quarter nears an end and ahead
of GDP and Payroll jobs data.
Wednesday, September 29,
2010, 9:05 A.M. Eastern- updated 4:48 pm
Stocks Bounce Positive, Late
In Afternoon Session, Posting Nice Gain
Look for a neutral-to-positive open.
Stubborn consumer confidence doesn't hold stocks back Tuesday. Stocks
posted a nice gain Tuesday amid end of quarter window dressing and ahead of
earnings season.
Tuesday, September 28,
2010, 9:04 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:53 pm
Equities sink below the
unchanged line, consolidating, after Fridays run-up
Look for a neutral-to-positive open
Monday. M&A is in focus
for the start Monday. U.S. equity market moved lower Monday after trying
for a positive end, consolidating Fridays two percent rally.
Monday, September 27,
2010, 9:05 A.M. Eastern- updated 4:47 pm
Mood Shifts On The Street As
Rally Picks Up Steam
Look for a strong positive open
Friday. A strong start
to the stock market Friday, with the post-open Market Barometer model
indicating a strong bounce of the Barometer-plot off the positive boundary.
This means, if today's rally ends near the high, that chances of a continuing
rally, possibly through October, is probable- a Forecast change next week is
likely, under this scenario. If sentiment has changed, the past two day
pullback or correction was short-lived. Stocks could continue rallying
next week on momentum and Window dressing for the quarter.
Friday, September 24,
2010, 9:01 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:58 pm
Two day correction -pullback- leads to rally on Friday
Look for a negative open Thursday. A
pullback/ correction appears to be underway as Futures indicate a lower open
helped by
first time jobless claims data.
Day two of correction as traders
take profits.
Thursday, September 23,
2010, 9:00 A.M. Eastern- updated 9-24-2010, 11:25 pm
>
Unemployment new claims climb, helping the stock market
pullback- chart.
Stocks Slip Into
Consolidation As Pullback Is Due
Look for a neutral-to-negative open.
Wednesday, September 22,
2010, 8:57 A.M. Eastern- updated 3:24 pm
Stocks Rest From Rally,
Consolidating, Closing Mixed On Fed Day
Look for a neutral-to-positive open
for Tuesday. Housing starts and the FOMC
meeting today is in focus
for the start.
Fed FOMC kept rates unchanged, continues to
indicate tough recovery. Mixed results Tuesday (Dow up, NASDAQ/ S&P 500
down) amid mixed data; Fed FOMC sees economical recovery weak; home building
start and permits data encouraging.
Tuesday, September 21,
2010, 8:55 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:54 pm- corrected 9:52p
>
FOMC keeps rates unchanged; statement little changed.
Rally Continues As Traders
Send The Stock Market To Another Positive Close; Dow In Triple Digits
Look for a neutral-to-positive open
Monday. The rally continues as traders send stocks up Monday, albeit on
low volume, ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
Monday, September 20,
2010, 8:45 A.M. Eastern- updated 5:51 pm
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