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MORNING UPDATE- STOCKS TO WATCH PORTFOLIO TRACKER TOOL- FREE TRIAL |
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Market focus-
Quarterly Earnings and Preannouncements-Stocks listed are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. News content supplied and owned by The New York Times and is protected by copyright ©.
Market Indexes | Tomorrows forecast
DELETED ARCHIVES
FOMC lowered its interest target to 2 percent this afternoon. Market Barometer forecast was changed to caution from negative. GDP grows at 0.6 percent in the first-quarter. Stocks end flat Tuesday as investors gear-up for Fed rate cut and statement. Consumer confidence in the economy dropped as house prices do. Home prices drop nearly 13 percent- foreclosures up. Market prepares for expected last Fed interest rate cut this cycle. Mars and Berkshire to acquire Wrigley's. Food and oil prices, less income, cause consumer confidence to fall. Motorola earnings reported loss for first quarter. New home sales fell in March, worst since last recession. Unemployment initial jobless claims fell 33,000, to 342,000. Stocks rise Wednesday as tech stocks lead the broader market higher. U.P.S. reports profits rise on weak economy but warns forecast. Delta and Northwest to merge in troubled industry. Boeing profits rise, beating expectations on ramping income. Yahoo reported today first quarter results ahead of expectations. Stocks under pressure, indexes lower by 1-percent early afternoon trade. Existing home sales fell 2-percent in March. Bank of America profits fall sending the stock market mixed Monday. Oil closed to another record, now above $117. bbl. Mattel posts first-quarter loss. Eli Lilly reports first-quarter, misses expectations. Merck reports first quarter profit. Techs rally Friday on Google, Intel, and IBM, sending the broader market higher. Honeywell beats earnings forecast, shares ramp up. Barometer pre open model set the forecast bias to neutral Friday. IBM beats earnings forecast on global demand and the U.S. dollar exchange. Stocks ramp higher Wednesday after inflation data and earnings reports. Investors take stocks up sharply amid mostly good news. Consumer prices rise in March near expectations. Stocks end higher Tuesday by 1/2 percent ahead of more inflation data. Oil closes up near the high of the session. Delta Air Lines and Northwest to merge, creates worlds biggest airlines. Producer price data (PPI report) indicates inflation trouble ahead. Pre close model changed the forecast to negative Monday afternoon. Wachovia seeks billions in capital.
(April - June 2004)
(January - March 2004) There were no market movers identified for this reporting period.
(October - December 2004)
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Why do stocks rise and fall? what moves the market? Stocks move the market, but what moves stocks? News- news- news. In today's world news moves everything. Here is how news can influence a hypothetical stock.
First of all, understand traders and investors are very nervous. Especially nowadays, when there has been so much pain over the past couple of years- you cannot blame anyone for wanting to minimize a loss in the market. Most traders and investors, for the past couple of years, have the attitude of shoot and ask questions later- that is, sell, then determine if you should-have or not. Its our nature to try and save ourselves from a sinking ship. Emotions play a huge part in the stock market.
Think about why you buy stocks and mutual fund. No one buys in hopes that when its sold it will be lower in price- a loss. Unless you need a tax loss, you most likely buy stocks and funds to make a profit. The more certain you are about a stock or a fund and its future, the more likely you are to buy it, if you're in the market to buy.
So the more certain you are about a particular stock or fund, the more likely you are to buy it. The opposite of certainty is uncertainty. The more uncertain you are, the less likely you are to buy... continued...
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| Investing and Education | Market Summary |
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What is Uncertainty? Uncertainty doesn't have to be directly related with just the stock or a fund, but could have to do with the environment. Example. Lets say you're looking at fictional company 'XYZ', and XYZ, has in the past, grown 50 percent a year and is projected to continue that growth. Also assume that the market for XYZ products are very good- you might buy some of the stock.
Let's say you complete your research on XYZ and a CNBC breaking news headline grabs your attention that says certain overseas countries are talking about building their own XYZ plant. Now they may or may not build that plant, but at this point there is some uncertainty.
Throw in to the mix- Rumors that war is about to break out in another country that heavily imports XYZ products, and now you have another uncertainty. The uncertainty can be just about anything that could impact the companies stock directly or indirectly.
That is the nature of being uncertain, you just don't know. That's why the market can fluctuate violently sometimes.
It's like getting sick. If you get sick you begin to feel bad. The worse sick you get the worse you feel. Once you begin to get better, you probably begin to feel better. Same thing with stocks. The worse it gets for a stock, sector, or the market, the more you stay away. Unless the uncertainty (sickness) is terminal (Enron), at some point- it gets better. The less uncertain (the better you feel) it gets, the better chance the stock, sector, the market will rise. At some point the stock, sector, market (after enough selling) will find a base of support from which prices rise, all other things equal.
If you have lots of time on your hands, you can track all of this yourself and you can determine when it's time to get in- most likely it is when you don't want anything to do with that stock, or the sector, or the market- is when you should consider getting in.
Before you invest and How to invest
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Go see the forecast and the Market Memo
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